After almost fourteen years of political dominance, Aleksandar Vučić and his Serbian Progressive Party have suffered a remarkable electoral defeat. In October 2026, a student-led movement won a parliamentary majority, promising to tackle corruption and restore democratic accountability. But will Serbia really change?
The election has been widely welcomed as a turning point in Serbian politics. However, almost two weeks later, the student movement has yet to agree on a prime minister. Its decentralised organisation and ideological diversity raise questions about whether it can form an effective government. Meanwhile, despite hopes of closer relations with the European Union, there is little evidence that Serbia will fundamentally change its positions on Kosovo, Russia or NATO. And what about Aleksandar Vučić? With his political alliance still commanding almost 40 per cent of the vote, could he eventually return to power?
In this week’s World Affairs video, I examine Serbia’s turbulent political history, from Slobodan Milošević and the student-led Otpor movement to the rise of Vučić and the latest election. He explains why the students face major challenges, why a new government may not mean a new foreign policy, and why Vučić’s political career may be far from over.
*VIDEO CHAPTERS*
00:00 Introduction and Titles
00:38 From Protest Movements to Power
01:51 Serbia in Context
02:34 Milošević and Popular Resistance
03:46 The Rise of Aleksandar Vučić
04:44 Vučić’s Record in Power
06:46 Can the Students Govern?
07:58 Will Serbian Foreign Policy Change?
09:14 Will Vučić Stage a Comeback?
10:23 A New Era or a Familiar Cycle?
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17 Comments
В Сърбия,всичко се променя,за да си остане същото.
1) 30 days to form the parliament plus 90 days to form a government – 4 months.
2) There's a 60 pages program agreed upon by the right, center and left.
3) "Otpor" was a US financed color revolution spearhead.
4)These protests were the protests of the silent majority rejecting Vučić and rejecting the opposition that was a product of the US soft power, i.e. the unelectable opposition that was symbiotic with Vučić, the Euroatlantists who weren't really opposed to Vučić but to the will of the Serbian people who hates the EU and the NATO.
5) We were maligned by the west and the folk is simply not forgetting it. Vučić's politics were a total capitulation to the west.
6) We will go inwards and set our house in order ONLY if the aforementioned 60 pages program is honored. Since the EU backed Vučić against us, the people, it's only up to us to become a normal country because Brussels cares only for the neocolonial natural resources syphoning geopolitics.
Why would anyone expect Serbia to abandon its claim over Kosovo, its relationships with Russia and China, or anything else for EU membership? Macedonia has done everything that the EU wanted, they even changed their name, and still cannot enter. Without guarantees or other, more secure benefits to changing Serbia's foreign policy, there's no reason to change anything. The Student List is rightfully focused on internal issues.
Mate, you really didn't do your homework before making this video. You should have studied how the electoral process works in Serbia, including all the relevant deadlines. You also should have taken some time to read the official statements from the Students' List.
How you came to the conclusion that they're having trouble forming a government is beyond me.
Some might even say that an analysis like this looks more like a commissioned piece than an independent one.
And as for Vučić's comeback… Have you seriously not been following what's been happening since election day? You might want to catch up a little. You'll find it quite interesting. 😉
I wanted Vucic to win I think he did fine when it came to foreign policy and these new guys I have no idea about they haven't presented anything no plan or platform or who the leaders will be how you vote for something like that is still a mystery i guess Vucic lost because of the domestic policy.
A large reason as to why people didn't like Vucic is because he was soft on the Kosovo issue.
They all are the same- claiming Kosovo and denying Srebrenica genocide.
The recent elections in Serbia attracted huge international attention. Many called it a political earthquake. But while it certainly marked a monumental development, will Serbia really change? Can the students really turn things around? Or will they be disorganised and chaotic? And what will happen to Serbia’s foreign policy? Will the country move closer to Europe? Or will traditional positions remain untouched? And, lastly, what about Aleksandar Vucic? Do you think he will stay in politics? And, if so, could we one day see him return to power? As always, I look forward to your thoughts and comments below. And if you enjoy independent analysis of international affairs, please consider subscribing or supporting the channel through membership. Thank you.
The question is why do we have to be eu members and western aligned to be a succesufful democratic country? We need to arrange our own yard first (eliminate corruption, establish freedom of spech, rule of law). Then if the Eu trully wants us it will take us in, it wont constantly blackmail us and constantly as something of us that it knows we cannot do (recognize Kosovo). Eu suported Vucic, wanted to exploit our resources (lithium), de jure recognized Kosovo, how do you supose we trust Eu after all that ?
Thank you for the sage analysis professor, the only gripe I have with it is that the students have shown that they'll purposefully delay revealing people chosen for positions in order to keep them away from the public eye until they're ready for prime time. I do think this is much more likelier than them just not being able to select one. It's is currently impossible to even select one as the new parliament has not been even constituted, as you know. As far the foreign policy, I fully expect them to keep most of it and they've said as much, it's too risky to pull any widely unpopular moves until they deliver on core promises of the list, which I do think they'll be able to. It is inaccurate to say the academics don't have political experience as some like Soskic and Jovo Bakic have experience in ether working within a government or within the opposition, and that's just the two off the top of my head
They have agreed to a strong program and they have proven ready to set aside ideology and just work on things that are needed to get the system rid of refuse
What a sensationalistic, surface level take of Serbian political scene. Take for instance your claim that Student List hasn't yet formed the Government two weeks after the initial elections even though they hold the majority.
Funny how you completely ignore the fact that there were areas with invalid votes that had to retake votes on October 31st, which took SL down from 141 seats to 140 seats, and that the official numbers were released only yesterday. According to our constitution, the new government can only be formed within 30 days after the official count is released.
Either you intentionally chose to omit this fact, or you were unaware of it. Either case, this video is not worth the storage it takes up on YouTube servers.
Great minds think alike! I just today uploaded my assessment of post-Serbia Vucic with my colleague and friend Mirko Dautovic. Looking forward to our next conversation.
High hopes, low expectations…
we do not want such a president who works for western interests and our country is not for sale.
With all due respect, this seems like a superficial analysis. The students have said they have candidates for both the PM and president they just prefer to keep quiet until the parliament is in session, which will happen soon enough. The 90 days government formation is unnecessary because there won’t be any coalition talks.
As for Vucic coming back? Sure, everything is possible, but the party SNS has a high chance of collapsing as it was only used as a platform for Vucic. Not to mention the many political affairs around Vucic and his people there is a high chance they will be in prison and if not that they will be lustrated.
As for the foreign policy there you are correct it won’t change much other than saying they will send more humanitarian aid to Palestine and stop military cooperation with Israel.
Governing and reforming Serbia will be difficult, that is expected, but this change is a worthy one considering how corrupt and authoritarian the country has become under Vucic. The mood in Serbia is positive and many have said to be patient and give the students a chance. There is literally no loud complaints from Serbs that the new government isn’t really off to a great start.
If you want a thorough explanation and research please look up the Serbian analysts Boban Stojanovic and Dejan Bursac as they are very good in their research on the country.
No hate James, you do good work in general. Just wanted to give my opinion and it’s fine if you disagree.
The biggest mistake of reformist movements is that they often turn the fight against corruption into an elitist niche. By attacking the system, they give the impression that they are also attacking the very idea of social protection or identity. Out of fear of austerity, the majority of voters will always prefer a corrupt stability.
There is another way, as demonstrated by three successful models in the region:
🔥 Tisza (Hungary) broke the monopoly on power by speaking directly to the conservative electorate.
🔥 The Students’ List (Serbia) took the uprising beyond the capital to hundreds of small towns and local communities.
🔥 PAS (Moldova) put “Solidarity” in the spotlight and and demonstrated that reformism means economic security, not just abstract slogans.
Anti-corruption is merely a stopgap measure, not a national agenda. Until an alternative demonstrates that it can offer social solidarity without patronage and patriotism without isolationism, the status quo will not be defeated.
I found the conclusion to be rather unbalanced and negative, all things considered. I see no reason to expect a nationalist government. You didn't bother to point out what you really meant by that statement was that Serbia might be less willing to compromise on Kosovo, but you know enough to understand that this nationalism is less likely to extend to other republics of the former Yugoslavia, with whom a better relationship is likely.
The fight against corruption is the mandate that the new government has, and for some reason you don't seem to think this is important. That is the barometer of success by which this government will be judged above all, particularly in its first term. You might have pointed out that Serbia's parliament hasn't been recalled yet and that there is still time for a leader of the student list to be decided.
I usually enjoy your videos but I find your conclusions here overly negative. It may be that this government won't live up to the highest of expectations but the fact is that this government also has a better opportunity of success (due to the fact that it hasn't been bought or the fact it didn't have do a deal with the devil as DOS did) since modern multi party democracy began in Serbia.