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While an election in a nation of fewer than ten million people might not always be the stuff of global headlines, Hungary’s was special.
For 16 continuous years it had been governed by Victor Orban who had often clashed with the European Union and took a more friendly approach to Russia than many other NATO states.
Now, following election, the Orban era appears to be coming to an end. And so today I want to look at the Hungarian election and what the change in Budapest might mean for the War in Ukraine, Russia, and Europe more broadly.
A key point to note however is that the Hungarian election was just one election – pitting a long term incumbent against a challenge who was formerly a member of his own party. In other European nations, results are likely to look very different.
But in the context of the war in Ukraine in 2026, this one mattered.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing (partial, to be expanded):
NATO Expenditure data per https://www.nato.int/en/news-and-events/articles/news/2025/08/28/defence-expenditure-of-nato-countries-2014-2025
Transparency International – Corruption Perception Index (Hungary)
https://www.transparency.org/en/countries/hungary
Results – Vas County, 2nd Constituency
https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/egyeni-valasztokeruletek/18/02?tab=eredmenyek
Bloomberg on Meszaros
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-17/orban-style-cronyism-turns-gas-fitter-friend-into-a-billionaire
Forbes data on Lorinc Meszaros
https://www.forbes.com/profile/lorinc-meszaros/
Source for Polish President at CPAC
Polish president warns US conservatives of Russia threat in CPAC speech
Pew research – -views of Putin and Russia (2025)
Reporting on aftermath
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/04/16/eu-rushes-to-budapest-talks-with-magyar-team-to-unlock-frozen-funds-amid-ukraine-tensions
https://www.npr.org/2026/04/12/nx-s1-5782671/hungary-viktor-orban-concedes-defeat
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/12/viktor-orban-concedes-defeat-as-opposition-wins-hungarian-election
https://www.reuters.com/world/swift-work-be-done-after-call-with-hungarys-magyar-eus-von-der-leyen-says-2026-04-14/
Example International Profiles – Peter Magyar
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/12/world/europe/who-peter-magyar-hungary-election-opposition-orban.html
Magyar’s ex-wife and former Orban Justice Minister calls him a traitor
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/07/04/ex-wife-hits-out-at-hungarian-opposition-leader-peter-magyar-calling-him-a-traitor
Magyar on territorial concessions in Ukraine
https://www.euronews.com/2026/04/13/we-cannot-ask-any-country-to-give-up-its-territory-magyar-says-on-ukraine
Polling data on Hungarian voters opinions of other states (2022)
https://telex.hu/english/2022/05/27/opposition-voters-do-not-share-their-parties-pro-ukraine-stance
Kremlin not to congratulate Magyar – expects pragmatic contact
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/04/13/8029946/
Reporting on (shortly) upcoming Bulgarian election)
https://apnews.com/article/bulgaria-election-radev-borissov-corruption-russia-427c265d8b314a00fbbcd159b76b52e2
Reporting on the -dog- story
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/fact-check-no-book-hungarian-054332620.html
https://konkret24.tvn24.pl/polityka/magyar-ugotowal-psa-w-mikrofalowce-kaczynski-i-tumanowicz-szerza-fejka-z-blogoslawienstwem-rosji-st8996739
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:42 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:50 — Hungary in the Lead Up
00:16:36 — the Russia Connection
00:23:31 — the Election Outcome
00:33:40 — Impacts: Russia
00:35:59 — Impacts: Ukraine
00:50:58 — Impacts: Europe
00:57:23 — Impacts: USA
01:00:57 — the Future
01:02:27 — Channel Update
20 Comments
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And in the spirit of spotting bias I'll reiterate what I said in this video – I am not an Orban fan for reasons I've outlined (Relations with Moscow aside, I think I've been pretty clear on why I think corruption indicators getting worse can be so damaging for any society or business) so please account for that context when viewing this episode.
I also think it's worth reflecting that this is one (very important) election, but it's far from the end of the story. Ukraine will likely be celebrating this result, but there are several more European elections in the pipeline which may go in very different directions.
Hope you all enjoy the episode, and I'll see you again next week..
View from DC needed an examination on how Orban funded cpac
As a Pole I just loved the fact, that Poland guest starred in basically every possible reference, comparison, and anegdote in this week's episode about our Hungarian brothers.
24:40 a bloke named John(ny) English for UK prime minister.. honestly I think Rowan Atkinson for UK PM is a campaign i could 100% get behind.
A more united EU backing Ukraine also greatly strengthens their position at the negotiating table with Russia. If and when serious discussions actually take place.
Comment to feed the evil leftist robot algorithm
Hungary never was Russia's friend, same Orban was never Russia's friend. It means, Russia lost nothing.
Also, it seems all the agreements, achieved before, still in power, sooo… good luck to you guys in selling your internal political events as Russia's wins or losses.
The entire vibe of Orban's political career appears to be characterized by "pull the ladder up after yourself". Getting into NATO despite that probably being a mistake on NATO's part, and then opposing further expansion – particularly for the likes of Sweden and Finland – is just vile behavior.
You forgot to mention the funniest attempt at delegitimizing Magyar as a person: when Fidesz released hidden camera footage proving that Magyar went to a party, and afterwards, had sex with a woman. They intended for this to discredit him, my working theory is that for Fidesz leadership, having sex with a consenting adult is too alien to fathom.
Americans are just so culture blind, it is incredible.
Almost Shakespearean: "from the worthy or the needy to the connected and the greedy"
2014 russia invaldes Ukraine and 2026 they have still not conquered it.
Russia is a bad country!
Now if only we can get rid of Erdogan, Netenyahu, and trump.
My favorite weird orban story is how he robbed a ukraine bank truck of $82m and briefly held the employees hostage. Literal cartoon villain
I feel like this won't age well
Lavrov: They couldn't win even with our support.
Me: They couldn't win in big part because of your support.
You know what I kinda love?
The moment, and I mean literally the moment an actual political opponent came up against Orban his election numbers plummeted.
Yes Hungary had opposition parties but scrolling through Wikipedia they gained together around 33% of the vote. By every election there was another main opposition.
Then John English (Would be his name if he was from the UK) came stroding in and snagging the win.
It should be noted: Peter Magyar is very politically and economically similar to Viktor Orban, so I do not think we will see massive reforms. However Orban followed the Trump model that became popular for the right wing after 2016, while Magyar is more the traditional Conservative it seems.
Will be intresting times.
It is very easy to get lost in the details and lose yourself in the chaff rather than the wheat so to speak. In this case it's very easy to focus on the fact that both the US and Russia heartily endorsed Orban and that he lost. However nobody seems to be asking the very simple question: why. Russia's case is obvious, however the US' is not. You did skirt around this issue a bit when you discussed Hungary's value as a NATO ally to the US, but NATO was never Hungary's selling point. Moreover NATO is very unpopular to the current administration in Washington and its threats to either leave NATO outright, or be very selective on which nations will enjoy American article 5 protections Instead, should have made this point obvious. Instead Hungary's importance to the US is in its membership to the EU, not NATO. The reason Trump and Vance endorsed Orban has nothing to do with Russia nor the Russia-Ukraine war, it has to do with EU politics.
To put it bluntly, Europe(as well as other nations like Canada, Australia and the left half of the US among others) is knee deep in the process of national, cultural and religious mass suicide. Trump is standing up on his hind legs so to speak to fight this obsession with everything he has. This is the core behind Trump's worsening relations with Europe and other American allies and explains issues like Greenland, NATO, etc. It is easy to focus on Hungary's obstructionism within the EU on issues regarding Ukraine, but these are far from the only times Hungary used its veto power to undermine EU decisions. Whether it's decisions regarding refugees and immigrants, issuing various embargos against Israel, etc. Hungary's current leadership may not be in favor of these EU policies, just like Orban wasn't, but they will be much more hesitant from using Hungary's veto to stop them, as part of Hungary's appeasement towards the EU after Orban's reign. Therefore the EU lost its last(unless someone else steps up in Hungary's stead) guardrail against its own folly and self destruction.
Europe may be celebrating now, but it will regret all these celebrations later. Their own folly will continue biting them in the rear, and the harder they go(now that Hungary's veto is gone) the more they will suffer. Moreover Orban exposed the EU's, and NATO's for that matter, main weakness: its unanimity clause. Yet rather than address the issue and reform these institutions both focused on appeasing/threatening Hungary, and other 'problematic' actors like Turkey, Slovakia, etc. Appeasement is never a good strategy, as history has proven time and time again. Hungary was a weak 'foe' for all the reasons you mentioned, the next foe may not be so weak and then these 2 organizations will really have a problem. Another thing nobody is considering is the effect of Hungary's election results on American-European relations, considering America's glowing endorsement to Orban before the election and everything I mentioned above. France, England and Spain are already testing this relationship to its limit regarding the war in Iran, now add more asinine European decisions without the Hungarian guardrail and well…
How many killed because of him
As always, appreciate your effort and perspective. I'm very curious to see what the russian adaptation to this election is going to be. Do they focus more on Slovakia? Do they try to sabotage Magyar? Trump though…. he doesnt usually learn from mistakes, no change there