Tour de France 2025 PREVIEW SHOW – Tadej Pogacar & Jonas Vingegaard In the Mountains? Girmay Green?

The 2025 Tour de France is finally here—and it’s shaping up to be a battle for the ages. Defending champion Jonas Vingegaard is back from injury and ready to face off once again with his greatest rival, Tadej Pogačar. Will we get the epic duel the world’s been waiting for?

Meanwhile, in the green jersey race, Biniam Girmay might have a fight on his hands. After a historic win last year, he’s up against heavy-hitters Tim Merlier and Jonathan Milan—both bringing serious sprint power to this year’s Tour.

We’re also diving into the route: the legendary Mont Ventoux returns for the first time since 2021, promising fireworks in the mountains. And forget the usual Paris parade—Stage 21 gets a makeover with a new, punchy finish on the iconic Montmartre climb.

Get ready for all the drama, the tactics, and the twists. This is the Tour de France, 2025 edition—and it’s going to be wild.

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00:00 Intro
00:20 History of the Tour de France
05:22 Tour de France 2025 Route Analysis
23:59 Is Tadej Pogacar Going to Win a 4th Tour de France?
30:04 Can Jonas Vingegaard Win the Tour Again?
35:08 What will Remco Evenepoel Do in the Tour de France?
39:44 Will Primoz Roglic Finish The Tour de France?
43:48 Outsiders
46:31 Who will be the BEST SPRINTER?
48:59 What Will Biniam Girmay Do In the Tour de France 2025?
53:42 Our Tour de France 2025 Predictions
1:03:39 What Next?

hello everyone and welcome to another video here on the Cycling Dane extra channel or if you’re listening to the Cycling Dane podcast available on Spotify and today is the big one the tour to France preview show and as always I’m joined by Patrick Blake of Cycling and we’re well pretty to France theme here i’ve got Polka Dot you’ve got yellow so all bases covered we haven’t got green or white so
no we need we almost need like more people somebody need to wear white somebody to wear green you know something like that
yens and Yuan they could have come as well but I mean the tour to France biggest bike show biggest race in in the world last year tadpagato winning it for the third time in his career world champion trying to do it for the fourth time trying to be the first world champion in a while since Bare but I mean Patrick let’s start with kind of the tour of France where did it begin for you for many people the tour is where it all starts because it’s the big show it’s the thing that’s shown all across the world and every single well main TV channel well except the UK because we won’t get into that but um yeah which tour did it start for you
i think it must have been 2012 coming off of the Olympics that kind of big hype coming off of that
my earliest memory zero
yeah I know literally I’m I was I I’m so basic aren’t I it’s terrible but my earliest memory was specifically of of Wiggins in yellow leading Cav out in the World Champs jersey on the Shan Le that’s a pretty cool first memory to have of the of the tour to France cuz obviously that was before the Olympics that year so there was like a kind of hype before the uh before the Olympics and watching the torso but you know since then they’ve had so many great additions of the tour you know we gone through the Sagan era the F era you know I was lucky enough to even you know see the end of kind of the Nebi and Conidor era now we’re into whatever we’re in now which is I guess the Tad versus Yonas era i think that’s what we’re in now but yeah this is the biggest bike race you know I’ve been lucky enough to go and see it in person i’m going out to see it in person as well this year really excited about that yeah it means so much it’s the biggest bike race it’s the most important it’s what everybody really cares about it’s the big spectacle that brings in the most eyeballs so understandably lots of teams want to do well here
yeah for sure i mean I think I started watching it back in 1903 no I’m kidding how old are you just
No my first introduction to it was in 2007 where my Norwegian friends at the time knocked on the door and said “There’s a Dane leading the tour.” And I didn’t really understand what that meant so I was like “Yeah the Dane so much better than Norway.” Didn’t know anything about cycling and then obviously that was Michael Rafimson and he got kicked out of the tour on stage 16 but then didn’t watch it in 2008 and then picked well really got into it in 2009 and obviously that was the Alberto Contidor Schle era and that just Yeah wow that that is still my favorite tour to this day lance Armstrong coming back same team as Considor camdish was part of the HTC Colombia team like there was it was amazing i loved it and uh yeah have met Considor and Schle in person and uh those are the only two people in this world that I can’t I get starruck with i don’t know what it is but those two human beings I have massive yeah fanboyism or whatever you want to call it but yeah and then obviously all the additions after that I’ve been interesting in their own way I didn’t really enjoy the fir if I’m honest cuz fanboy seeing him getting smashed to pieces most of the time so yeah but there’s been some cool moments as well I love the 2011 there was this the aldaware stage where Conidor went almost out from the gun and Pan won that and then you had a new name and it’s just seeing like all these names and I also loved the 2019 edition with Julian Phipe in yellow that was amazing that was very akin to Thomas Vlo in 2011 and then yeah obviously we’ve had a Danish winner since then and the tour has come to Denmark which I actually was at so I really enjoyed that as well and you had Yorkshire yeah I had Yorkshire back in 2014 that’s where the real kind of hype i think that’s where I started escalating in cycling nerdy at that point i think I think that was pretty much hookline and sinker at that point obviously we know there’s other great additions like the 1989 with Greg Lemon then Lauren Finong and then obviously him and Bernard No as well uh you’ve got well I have to say Banna Reese as well even though the history books say different lance Armstrong is still yeah he’s not down on the history books but he did shift the sport a lot we can’t deny that he literally took it from a European sport to a global sport so Marco Pantani winning as well so many names miguel indop copy so many names but anyways Patrick we could be here all day for that in terms of the route this year what does it look like isn’t it an all French tour to France
i think it is all French i can’t remember if it might dip for like a few kilometers into Spain maybe when they’re down in the Pyrenees anyway that’s that’s bye-bye it’s pretty much like all French if you know barring a few little percents here and there possibly but anyway the 2025 total kicks off on the 5th of July and we start off with a sprint day from Le to Le it’s 185 km long will will provide an opportunity for a sprinter to get the myojon on the first day of the taller france so you’re going to be looking mainly at Malia Milan and Philipsson probably to be taking the yellow on that day stage two is a 210 km stage from Lan Plunk to Bologna Sare this is a pretty flat day apart from towards the end we have two climbs which is the total which is 900 m at 10.8% 8% the C duo 800 m at 7.9% and then another little kick up to the line you’re going to be looking at Pogy you’re going to be looking at Vanderpool Yonas is going to be following a going to be following you have lots of you alaf as well big puncher battle on stage two stage three we have another sprint day from Valencien to Dunkirk 178.3 km only one climb a cut to Castell 2.3ks at 4.5% stage four we go From Among Metropol to Ru 174.2 km long it’s very very hilly inside the last 60 km taking in six seven no six categorized climbs the Kot the K Jacon Kil K bon I mean gosh these are all like somewhere between a K to a kilometer and a half averaging 6% plus uh the last one the lamp dant air which is 900 m at 10% i mean gosh this is going to be another puncher day another day where pogy might sense some opportunities to gain time on Yonas stage five we have a 33 km time trial around camp pretty flat overall so you’re going to be looking mainly at a Neapol versus Ghana I expect for the stage winner here stage six we go from Bea to Via Normandi this is a hilly day it’s over 3,000 mters of climbing it’s very Amst gold race actually come to come to look at it up and down pretty much all day plenty of categorized climbs in there towards the end about 5 km from the finish we have the CD va 1.1k at 7.5% and another kick up to the line which is 700 m at 9.3% so one for the punches and GC contenders once more stage seven we’re going from San Malow to the Murder Blitia san Malo which is a little bit of trivia so this the place where the the book All the Light We Cannot See is based for those interested it’s the one bit of trivia that I do know the Murder Blatia obviously we know a lot more about this is where Vanderpool back in 2021 did seemingly the impossible managed to get the yellow jersey in honor of Raymon Pulidor his grandfather it was a very emotional day it was a great day of cycling and hopefully we have something equally as spectacular the Murder Bratannia is 2.2 km at 6.3% we take it in twice so we do a little lap and the entrance kind of right hand bend onto it is the most important part really that that positioning is absolutely crucial so I think Vanderpool’s going to be pretty eager to replicate what he did gosh four years ago i can’t believe it was four years ago and that is still to this day the only stage win that Vanderpool has at the tour of France stage eight we go from Samen Lron to Laval this is 171 km long it’s got a slight drag up to the line probably 3% for the last few hundred meters but it’s going to be a sprint more than likely stage nine we go from Shin to Chatu chatoo is where Cavendish in 2021 equaled the Eddie Murk’s record and then obviously Cav went on to take that record last year so Chataloo’s got a big sprinting history and that’s what we’re going to be seeing this time round 174 km pretty much nailed on to be a sprint and then the last day of this first week which is 10 days long so just don’t get too hepped up with like the nomenclature of like it’s a week it’s 10 days long just forget about it we go from Enazar to Lemon Pi it’s over 4,000 m of climbing on this day it’s 163 km long finishing up the final climb but the lemon door is 3.2ks at 7.9% there’s climbing throughout the whole day it’s barely flat at all and that rounds out the first week of racing it’s a long first week at at 10 stages long and what do you make of that first week Scott
he’s made because the Kauer is on the Monday so that’s why they Yeah okay I’m with you uh yeah I think it’s very interesting with the time trial as well would have loved to have seen a team time trial in there or bit of cobbles we’re up in Le northern France just not Yeah balance a few kilometers north of that we have Tru and Ironburgg and we’re not going there unfortunately so yeah but it’s fine it’ll it’ll be interesting it’s one of those weeks where favorites are going to be very nervous and uh a lot of opportunity for the hardy sprinters I think but yeah what do you think
i think it’s a week that they designed to give Vanderpool chances to take stage wins do you think it it looks I’d say in this first week there is I would give Vanderpool stage stage two stage four stage six stage seven potentially as opportunities that he could win i think there’s a lot of opportunities for him i think they’re really setting up a you know trying to get Vanderpool to kind of bait him to attack and you know Pogy’s attacking instinct over these sorts of terrains to really cause a really like dynamic and explosive GC battle even if time gaps aren’t big it’s going to be a real spectacle to see all these guys going absolutely full gas trying to drop drop each other and fight over bonus seconds but it is worth noting we are on the northwest coast of France so there is a strong possibility of some of these flat earth stages having crosswinds in there so just because it’s going to be a flat day doesn’t mean it’ll be an uninteresting day so you got to be sure to tune in like all the time because the tour can have action at any point
yeah that’s true remember stage one where a few years ago where Carropath and Henrik Maths both crashed out that was crazy yeah crazy that Machanopal has way more parro Bay titles than he has stages of the tour but that aside what does week two look like
the second week starts off stage 11 tulus to Tulus it’s 156.8 km long it’s not a lot of climbing in the day but it’s all very focused inside the last 50ks with multiple uncatategorized descents which are all probably between 1 to 1.5 km long averaging 6% to 8% something like that we have two cas clims which we do know of towards the end which is the kud de tulus which is 1.5k at 6.7% and then the monte de pesh Davidid 900 m at 9.1% that crests with just under 10 km to go given the frequency of these climbs in the finale in this last hour of racing I think that it’s going to be certainly one for the punches and a bit more of a reduced sprint given the flat nature of the finish stage 12 we jump into some pretty high mountains quite soon on Actually in the second week we go from a to the cam it’s 180 km long we’re taking a very flat day until the culture 11.8 km at 7.7% then we descend down to the cam 13.6 km at 7.8% the last time we saw this was in 2022 when Wildard seemingly did the impossible and dropped Tad Pagatcha to launch Yonas Ving to a very decisive day actually in the tour to France that year so maybe Pigatcha can put those demons of that day behind him maybe Yonas will be the one to I don’t know double down on the hotel and really stamp it down as his sort of climb we’ll wait and see stage 13 we have an individual time trial from Ludenville up the pale good yes you heard that right it’s an 11 km time trial the pale good being 8.1 km at 7.5% it’s the very unflat time trial and one very much for the GC contenders you’re going to be looking at Almeida uh Pogy and Fingo i don’t know why I put Almeida first i think it’s that tortois bias he would be uphill TT there but I do think that yeah Al is going to be a good one for for that day but mainly Yonas versus Pogy more than likely stage 14 we go from Po to Lucon Super Bag taking in the Cole Dutto obviously for the souvenir Jacqu Gord 19ks at 7.4% we also take in the co or the pale sword not the pale good the pale sword to Lucon Sutler Bagir 12.4ks at 7.4% there is just over 5,000 meat climbing on this day over 183 kilometers it’s one of the tougher stages of this race then to round out the second week obviously it’s a slightly shorter second week cuz the first week was huge stage 15 from M to Kakason it’s 170 km long it’s hard to tell how this day will go i think it’ll be a breakaway day because it’s got two big climbs in here the corda de Montarik which is 11.5ks at 4.3% but it levels off towards the top so it more likely averages like 6% most of the climb and we also have the p don 3.2ks at 8.8% 8% so it’s a real breakaway day i don’t think this is one of those sprinters will survive so airgo it probably goes to the the breakaway because the GC riders won’t have that much interest in there so it’s a you know it’s not an overly long second week Scott but there’s quite a lot of action going on there with the Otam the Perugu TT stage 14 being really difficult with the tormale it’s a lot going on
yeah I wish they included Abd as much as they include the Tom uh hopefully 2026 but this isn’t me this isn’t a review of the route this is the route scott deal with it uh no I’m looking forward to the Paragu time trial that one is very exciting and I think you mentioned it in our Vingo video where you talked about the stage 16 that we saw but it wasn’t quite we haven’t really seen that mountain time trial since La Plange to Belvie or am I wrong
um yeah it didn’t go straight up
yeah yeah going straight the Porsche bell fe one in 2020 was still like had a flat rolling to the last time the tours had like a pure just pretty much mountain TT from start to finish
i can remember like I can remember the JRO having it but I can’t remember the tour having like start from the bottom of Alz and finish at the top
love to see that but I mean that aside that’s not for this video uh yeah what does the final week cuz that’s the one I really want to uh get into what does that look like the the third week of the tour of France the final week starts with stage 16 Melier to Mon 272 km long it’s pretty much flat all day mon 2 19.5ks 7.9% that is the one where I will be at the roadside i can’t wait yeah it’s it’s flat and it’ll be an interesting one whether we’re going to have a breakaway win it a bit like Kikovski winning the Gron Colombia two years ago where you know break gets the road and takes the win or whether the GC teams will control it and try and you know take the win obviously the last time we saw this was us was in 2021 I think it was when Yonas put Tai under pressure we took it into lights actually on that day and Wanar took the victory which was blew everybody lines pretty much stage 17 we go from Bolen to Valance hopefully I’ll be at the start there trying to get signatures on my flag i think this is a mixture of maybe a breakaway day or maybe a sprint it’s It goes uphill pretty much for like 2 hours of racing I’d say up to the CE bier which is 5.7K is at 3.3% but it just drags like all day up and up and up and then we kind of go down taking the colder tartil 4.3k is at 3.9% so it’s difficult to say it’s a balance between if sprint teams really want to get a win here I think they might you know put all hands to the pump which is very possible cuz the last time we saw a sprint day was in the first week or something like that and the sprinters might be a little bit desperate for just a little bit of action so maybe more sprinter team there stage 18 arguably the queen stage of the tour to France people can you know debate that uh in the comments if they want to but stage 18 goes from V to the cold de la it’s got the most climbing of any of the stages at 5,792 m over 172 km taken in the cold galandon the cord madalen and the cord laws finishing up at 2,300 m is the only real high altitude finish of this tour of France we don’t go to altitude much i consider altitude over 2,000 m by the way but the cordal law 26.3 km at 6.5% going through covel you’ll be familiar with the climbs if you watched the do or or the to France fam last year went up the glandon or they actually descended down the side of their going up but anyway that’s beside the point it’s going to be a super cool day and uh I think yeah that’s the queen day for me or you could argue the the stage after stage team from Albertville to La Plaga we get taken many categorized climbs the unin the cord we call the play the call and then la we have which is 19.5ks at 7.2% 2% finishing just over 2,000 meters that’s the other high altitude finish of the race so backto back difficult days this one could go to the breakaway given the difficulty of the start they got climbing pretty much out the gate so that might initialize a strong breakaway to form but those are going to be some difficult days back to back stage 20 from Nanour to Pont Alier should be a day for a breakaway taking in multiple clims it’s almost got 3,000 m of climbing there’s no way the sprinters are making this pretty early on you got the cord laser which is 11.8ks at 4.2% that’s going to be the breakaway initializer i expect if not that it’ll be the cot vha or the cot shadow de which come after that descent so I think this is one for the kind of it looks like a bit of a mate mahoric day or something like that or a Casper Asgain sort of day you know where the the tough ruler breakaway guys really make it stick and then lastly stage 21 from Mont Lavil to Paris oh sorry par went out of touch there for a second taking him the laps around the Shan Le but with a twist much to the sprinters delight a pretty barren last two weeks of this race cuz they’ve introduced the Cud Deut monat which you’ll be very familiar with if you watch the Olympic road race last year here they had this climb in there that is 1K at 5.7% on cobblestones just you know add a little bit of spice in there why not who knows what this will be actually because we’ve never seen it before so it could be a sprint or it might initialize a bit of a tougher day than expected and who knows whether the GC fight might still be up for grabs you might see an aggressive Pagatra if he’s not in the lead of the race by this point but what do you think of the last week Scott i’m very excited for that final stage obviously Yensbrook gave his opinion about it and he said it’s going to be a nervous day for the TC yonis Bingle has said his part where he was we were talking about that in another video that uh he’s nervous about it cuz it’s not like the Olympic field there’s a lot of riders coming in uh but also those big stages that you talked about before are going to be very interesting and it also means that those big stages and then going to the final stage is not that ceremonial stage and if it is close that could be so cool if we have like Paga and Bing within 20 seconds of each other by the time we get to stage 21 oh my goodness that’s going to be funny but well maybe if it’s Bingigore leading Baga more than the other way around cuz we both agree he’s the better uh one day racer but yeah no it’s it’s going to be a big big smash uh the last one and yeah of commiserations to the sprinters you haven’t had Shams last year and then you’re like ah we return to normal and it’s like nope Paris punishes you twice the Olympics so the Olympics took it away last year and they’ve altered it this year so any sprinter is just going to be cursing the Paris Olympic route
they will be won’t they the sprinters don’t actually have that many opportunities in this race in my opinion i’d say
how many How many do you count how many do you count probably six I’d say let’s say uh stage one one three uh eight nine i’m scrolling it’s maybe 17 and then 21 i don’t think it’s a lot i’m even saying that you know stage 17 goes to the sprinters and not a breakaway and that stage 21 is a sprint and not some sort of weird kind of reduced puncher affair it’s pretty slim pickings for the sprinters which is weird because we’ve got such a strong set of sprinters coming in
yeah true we’ll get to them we’ll get to them but we might as well start with the champion from last year the three-time champion world champion Taragatcha we’ve said his name probably a thousand times since last year’s tour of to France if I’m honest but uh yeah coming in after that criterium to definitely win which he looked absolutely imperious we talked about that in a separate video we’re trying not to go up cover too much of a similar ground we know the classics campaign we’ve talked about that a lot as well doing very well winning the tournament podium every single monument he was in winning the UAE tour at the beginning of the year as well and yeah uh we also have the confirmation of the UAE team we weren’t sure about that when we did our earlier video and it seems like Mara did make it in so yeah I mean Patrick Tatvacha he has an incredible record in this race never finished lower than second and he’s maybe going to be winning his fourth title and doing so for the first time as a world champion what do you think of his chances does this route suit him and who’s in his team
yeah I think he he’s probably he’s gonna do pretty well is what I expect fourtime champion gosh I mean it’s it’s on the cards isn’t it he’s
probably not six stage wins or do you think
six i honestly Scott I won’t put six stage wins past him to be honest i really would
i really I really wouldn’t i think he could pick up a couple in that first week and then the high mountains later on i mean gosh I think six is possible yeah Pog is just looking in such good form the Kofan was absolute evidence of that how even his closest rival in Vingo is still probably not on the same level as him at the moment so really is Pagachas to lose I would say I don’t want to like you know curse him or whatever but you know you know put the predictors curse on him if that’s even a thing but Pogy is the favorite he’s got a big team around him with Almeida Yates Civikov Solair Villains Navias and Polllet it’s a super strong team isn’t it i mean gosh you got so many good cards to play there obviously it’s all around Puggy but I wouldn’t count off somebody like Almeida to be up there as well later on in the race i think it’s a it’s a course that suits him if he can make it through that first week relatively unscathed he’s got a lot of stages where I think he could do a bit of the Yates of of 2023 and speaking of which you know Adam Yates is also here he shouldn’t be underrated yes he was a bit under the radar at the Jiro I think but you’d probably say that this is more of an important goal for him than the Majiro not saying the Jiro is unimportant but at the end of the day everybody really cares about the tall of France it’s the main jewel in the crown of the cycling season and given Pogy’s very immaculate season so far he has to come in as the overwhelming favorite to the betting market but I I reckon you’d have to put on at least a mortgage to to gain a tener or something on on those odds
yeah it is so true so true yeah he’s also finished every single tour since he started in 2020 that’s quite a impressive stat as well i mean another Slovenian we know hasn’t really got that stat it’s more the reverse in that same time period i don’t know what the weakness is for Tadvaga in this race last year we thought the weakness was that he was doing the Jirro before and would be fatigued he was better than ever wiped the floor with everyone here he has arguably a stronger team you would say as well maybe more all round strong team like we were saying the only thing you could really throw at this team maybe was a team time trial but that’s not here so I I’d have really don’t know what they would throw at this and the next team that we’re going to talk about this Melissa bike yes they have Wild but these guys have Nils Plet with Navayz is I just don’t think there is a course which doesn’t suit Pogy anymore
he won strat of Yankee as well this year so he won on the coals and on the gravel so it’s kind of like
there’s no terrain this guy and in the hills as well so what
Yeah like he can do short sharp explosive efforts he can do medium mountain efforts of like 20 minutes he can do longer efforts of up to an hour he can do cobblestones he can do gravel he can do crosswinds he can position good on narrow lanes because he’s a good one day racer it It’s impossible and you know maybe that’s a little bit defeus but he’s so complete as a rider he’s he’s hard to see how you beat him put it this way conidor and F were not winning stra Banio to Flanders um so yeah or Neody or Wigan oh well Wiggins tried Parro Bay so but that was after not in the same year as he’s contesting for the tour which is absolutely incredible out of the team who do you think do you think they have a weakness this team i thought Mark Salair but a few people in the comments didn’t agree with me and hope that Mark is going to show me up in the tour by doing magnificent turns
i agree with you i think Salah is he didn’t look that great in the do like people can say that they hope he’s going to show you up in the in the tour but based upon what we’re looking at on the doofan he didn’t look that great he’s a bit like roglitch he does really well when he’s in Spain but this is not Spain this is France so I don’t really I don’t know uh it’s it’s a really good squad like I think is possibly the only one I have some v a question mark over but I don’t really know who they’d put in instead of him unless they decided to in hindsight send Salair to Viro and send Micah here instead or McNoli or whoever but you know hindsight’s 2020 isn’t it so I think given the riders available realistically given the calendar of the year this is probably the best squad that they can conjure up and it’s it’s a fine one at that anyways Patrick we might as well move on yonis Vingo and Bisma Malisa bike and uh we have confirmation of their team as well the rumors we heard in the previous video where we talked about Bingo was actually true yeah what do you think of Yonder and Bingo’s chances that heroic comeback last year from the Bass Country crash and then winning a stage and finishing second is absolutely incredible and obviously won the two years before and finished second as well in 2021 on his debut so do you think Vingort can reach the level of Pagacha we have a bit of time between the doofen and the to France it is a strong team they’ve got wild they’ve got Simon Yates they’ve got Seus maybe not but Matio Jurgensson definitely very strong so do you think they can do it i think that if anybody’s going to do it it’s going to be Vinker and this Vizma Lisa Bike team quite frankly is he on the level of Pagatcha what if the Doofan is anything to go by he isn’t at the moment but like you say we don’t know how things have changed since the end of the Den to the beginning of the tour to France because things can can change around he was good in the Dane on the on the shorter terrain actually on the shorter climbs he seemed really good there at matching Pagatcha it’s funny enough on the terrain which you’d think would suit Yiannis a bit more on the longer tougher days where he seemed to suffer a bit more i think that it was just unbelievably is a daunting prospect that Pagata just seemed to ride away from him in the saddle just seemingly not breaking a sweat that much but Yonas still has a good chance of winning this race i think because at the end of the day he’s the only person on this start list who has beaten Pagatcha in this race so really you have to consider him as as a favorite for the win as well and you know they’re going to have to race it to win it because if he were fighting for second place then you’ve already kind of lost so it’s a team which is very good it’s built for supporting Jonas and giving him the best shot so it’s got Wavart Simon Yates Matteo Jorgensson Eduardo Afini Teenote Sebus and Victor Campan it’s a very well-rounded team you got a good climbing support there with Jorgensson Simon Yates and Cuss the allrounder of Ward can do a bit of everything atheni Benote and Camparts more as your ruler support you they got all bases covered here they got that first week covered to support any kind of crosswinds or positioning into short sharp clims and they got the mountain support later on it’s it’s a good team to counteract UE’s strength so therefore they put their best foot forwards and essentially it’s sort of just going to be down to canving bridge that form gap which we saw in the doain to big
yeah I think that’s very eloquent but we also talked about this in the more detailed video that we thought this team desperately screams team time trial but yeah that’s not really here what do you think about Yates um is he the secret bullet or the magic bullet here for them with Jurgensson very powerful uh on paper but we haven’t seen them together with Yoness in any race cuz obviously Yonas has only done Paris Nice Walgav and the Doofane and those three were not together in any of those races
i think it could be a good option to use Yates and Jorgensson because I don’t I don’t think they used Jorgensson to his full effect in the Dan i think they just used him as more of a domestique and essentially set CUS up the road in attacks but he’s further down in GC i think they should have tried with Jorgensson and put pressure on Pogy a bit more that way how long they can rectify that and keep Yateson in the contention for the win or at least close enough to Pagatcha where they merit are going to have to be concerned about them so that when it gets to the mountain terrain they can try and attack with them early to try and force UE to pace with their big guys like Almeida and Adam Yates to try and burn them off sooner or to try and force those other kind of secondary leaders like Almeida and Adam Yates to follow and therefore for put UE in a more tactically difficult situation if they still if they would prefer Pagatra to win but they’ve got Adam Yates up the road then they kind of have to make a bit more of a tactical decision on that so I think Vizma are going to have to play a bit more of a canny game in order to win this race and utilize multiple options cuz I’m not convinced that on a Mano v Mano Pogy versus Yonas battle based upon the Dofane would come out on top
yeah it’s it’s unfortunately looking a bit like that after that Dane quite a crushing defeat in some respect it pagatcha looked like he was sometimes not even breathing compared to Yonas Bingle we saw that at the finish line tadvacha seemed very fresh and Bing comes in and he’s Yeah well the images kind of spoke for themselves but moving on from the legendary pair of Yonas Bingor and Tadugacha i know it’s hard but there are other riders it’s not just about these two riders reme the double Olympic champion world time trial champion last year’s third place finisher and white jersey winner won a stage as well was at the Dofane as well but just not in the same league you were saying it in well in the preview you said it in the recaps as well of the Dofane that he is the first one to kind of tap out when it’s not really his prime target i mean he he even had that bad stage on the tom that you even mentioned in the welter as well so yeah what worries me about Remco Veniple right now isn’t well he’s a good rider we know that he has the TT he probably has that Khan time trial in the bag if he comes with his normal form so he’ll definitely be leaving this I think with stages and he’s very good he’s shown on the classics terrain he’s a Leastian winner he had that period in his career where he was winning one day races like they were going out of fashion but this team I must say worries me because there’s no Malander in the team and there is a Tim Molia and Timlia is not a domestique he has his own goals no disrespect to Tim Molia he’s on flying form and he is maybe the best sprinter in the Pelaton but we’ll talk about that later but yeah who is in his team Patrick and what do you think Remco Venopol’s what’s his limits in this year’s tour to France
so alongside a Neapol of the moment it’s a provisional team so there’s like you say Malia Per van Leberger Pascal Anorn Valenta Max Shackman Matia Katano and Casper Pison so roughly speaking you got a bit of a 50/50 split of a Nepool VPP at Van Talipent elan Van Vilda is like your main kind of GC climbing bit you know Shackman and Katana can also do a bit of a job there as well malia Van Leberger Casper Patterson An Katano kind of more yeah like the the rulers so yeah it’s going to be a split team between GC and stages i mean at the end of the day it’s kind of the only way to go because you’ve got a guy who can contend for the the podium of the tour but you’ve also got say the fastest sprinter in the race who could be mopping up multiple stage wins so you can’t neglect either you have to split the team in order to go with both of them and yeah I think Mia has done well in the past even with a shorter lead out train he seems very good at the wheels we saw that in the bars Belgian tour and a I don’t think needs a full train either he can definitely play off of the UE team emerit versus visa bike battle going on so I don’t think he needs to have loads and loads of climbers in order to set pace i think he will just be working benefiting from the work of other teams and utilizing his climbers probably in a more of a breakaway setting or in the very specific stages and specific scenarios in order to make the most of them so I think it yeah it works as a team what is a limit here i think he can podium this race i mean he came into this race last year also off of the Bass Country crash off of a kind of similar DOA where he finished not fully up there in GC but he got a TT win so I think that a Nepal is in a very similar scenario to last year and perhaps we wrote him off last year as not being a podium candidate or not giving him the uh you know the status that he deserved so I think I see a very similar scenario to last year so therefore I think he must be a podium candidate but I think realistically it’ll be like a third to a fifth place that’s kind of where I’m setting the uh the range
yeah and I think uh maybe Pan and Pantoy can play that lander role i’m not sure we know riders going to quick step they normally take like a step up in their career it’s amazing what happens to some riders going to Quickstep so yeah it’ll be interesting and Remco like you said definitely Yeah could do something it’s only his second tour to France as well so that’ll be quite impressive it was impressive finishing third in your first tour to France i’m discounting the two aliens as people call them but uh yeah moving on from Remco I don’t think this team though is winning the tour to France that’s what I was trying to say because if they get they they might get the yellow jersey but it’ll be very hard to defend this because yeah if Visma or UAE have riders that they can throw up the road then this this team quickly just blows up but we might as well move on to another team red Bull Borah Hanscrower i put this in the favorites category but you could argue it’s in the other category so Primos Roage the man who hasn’t finished a tour to France since he finished second after losing the jersey on the lamplange to Belie stage in 2020 he’s bidding to win the tour of course had a disastrous year Italian this year unfortunately do you think Rugglitch has a chance this year he comes with a very strong team that does include Danny Martinez former stage winner at the Tour of France and as we know former second place finisher at the Jurro last year blasov himself has finished top five in the to France so yeah and who else is provisionally on the squad jordi Mayos who just won the Copenagen sprint i think they’re taking him he’s been very good as well which must be annoying for Roglitch that they’re bringing a sprinter so yeah Red Bull B Hansro and Roglitch how do you see it
i can see why Robage would be annoyed but at the same time
yeah at the same time yeah stay in time you kind of stay on your bike a bit more to the kind of full team around you but anyway that’s that’s kind of beside the point some feathers that’s for sure anyway Rogich Martinez blast yeah we might put Mayus and probably another ruler in there because I think that Rogitch Martinez blast of Leapitz that’s a pretty good quartet of mountain riders so probably like a May and a you know just another ruler in there will probably work pretty well roglitch’s chances is he your favorite i I don’t know i really don’t know he’s got to finish firstly like for goodness sake i just don’t know about Robert anymore you know my faith in him has dipped recently even if he is capable of finishing which he he is like he he is capable of avoiding calamity he is but is he good enough to beat and Yonas i don’t think so he seemed last year to be the fourth rider even in those earliest exchanges so
yeah I’d put Almeida above Rogich to be honest with you i I really would i think with Rogich is slipping down the kind of favorite hierarchy i would put a above roglitch just marginally yeah Rogich is is a really tricky one but they’ve also brought leap of its I mean a rider I’m very uh very fond of he did a very good Dane finishing in third place he got the white jersey there as well i think that should be a pretty realistic goal for him to try and go for i think his main competitor will be a Neapol i think a is still obviously he was eligible in the day for this of course he’s eligible in the tour so maybe they’ve got leap of there is another potential to try and sneak a top five martinez and Vlasty more as just like doses rather than GC aspirations they might be a let into a breakaway or two to try and get a stage win for themselves but realistically I I think Rob could podium yes he’s going to need things are going to need to go well or mainly things are going to need to you know not go wrong let’s say to begin with but he he is a big candidate you know he’s he’s been married he’s done that he’s won multiple grand tours and therefore he needs to be up there in the conversation for the podium but I cannot see him as a poolish of can be a little bit inconsistent blazov looked okay at the to Swiss has had a bit of a rough season took the Manchester jersey there didn’t Andy Schle take that before he won his tour and yeah let’s not go into the correlation between the Manchester jersey win and winning the tour of France that’s niche even for us but yeah it’s like you said he needs to stay on his bike lipovitz definitely could be a good backup plan a bit like they had in the Jurro with also a young rider with Belisari and yeah that that could really just repeat itself but they will be one of the teams kind of not calling the shots they will be at the mercy of Yeah they’re two big teams for sure anyway we might as well open it up to other rides and I can’t believe we got Inos Grande in here sorry Inos you’re in here despite having a Garin Thomas who’s won the tour to France and Carlos Rodriguez top five as well but they are firmly in the other favorites in here other favorites Laney Martinez maybe i mean big hope took the last stage at Dofane didn’t look great was good in the Torto Romani Kapas Ben O’ Connor as well I mean Patrick we’ve got a lot of names we need to kind of rustle through in this section who are you kind of looking at for outsiders which also go for best French fight rider but that’ll be in the predictions
true yeah I think you’re right car I can’t I think I read somewhere that he’s going for like kind of similar to last year you know he might inadvertently come top 10 because of Gal was looking good in the tour actually you know he’s finished top 10 in the tour before i think he’s in the conversation for somebody who could be in the top five like you said Carlos Rodriguez i don’t know about Garrett Thomas it’s hard to tell obviously it’s his final tour to France but you we’ve written him off before and he’s he just refuses to you know just just keeps going so you can’t really write him off castle Rodriguez hasn’t had the best year i think that’s it’s more of like a top 10 and trying to get stage wins for Inos scaloser possibly you know he was you know he did he won the new ra and Pandora something bank I can’t remember what the sponsor’s name is but yeah he won that ahead of Enrik Mass who’s also here okconor like you say Martinez similarly to Hollander house was actually very good in the the doofan what was he fifth place I want to say he was he’s never really strung together a 3-week race though is the only thing i’m not sure if he’s more of like a stage hunter but you never know you can’t write these sort of people off he did look very good in that race but I think by and large we’ve covered all of the sort of outsiders for like the top 10 gil Mata I don’t really see Onley as a GC guy i see him more as a puncher breakaway sort of rider israel Premier Tech I’ve got Blackmore Woods Lenenko maybe one of those might crack for top 10 but I think realistically we’ve covered covered everyone
yeah true i think so yeah I there is a lot of interesting teams for sure mistar I I like their team a lot with Enrik Masa and Rubio i also like Bahrain Santiago Betrago with Lenny Martinez see what those combinations can do and yeah Ben Oconor in his first ever tour of France for Jayulo will be very interesting uh to say the least but we might as well come to the sprinters but I think be well okay we’ll talk about the top dogs and then we’ll get to Mr green jersey from last year cuz I think he should have his own section top dogs this year in the sprinting game patrick I’m looking towards Jonathan Milan not necessarily Asperon but uh Tim Meria those two for me Tim Meria is the one who shocked me the most i think it was the Brussels cycling classic where he had like five bike lengths to the rest of the field and I was like “What on earth this I haven’t seen that since Cavendish Marshall KD that kind of era.” So uh for me Tim Merier is on rocket fuel right now in the sprinting game
completely agree with you i think Malia for me looks like the fastest sprinter based upon Milan honestly in the do he didn’t fill me with like loads of confidence that he’s like in his best shape like he was he was getting dropped on climbs I’ve usually seen him be okay on in the past those sorts of medium efforts and like even in the sprints he wasn’t convincingly beating other people like he got beaten by Jake Stewart i know Jake Stewart got the jump on him but you would have expected him outfield Milan just to easily just mop everybody up but he was kind of just not in the Jonathan Milan shape of the in 2024 where he was just demolishing everyone and yeah Philipsson’s been a little bit a little bit hot and cold hasn’t quite strung things together but he does have Matthew Vanderpool here this time where he does seem to be a very very good last lead out man they also have Kaden Groves coming which is seemingly he’s on the provisional start list it’s a little bit bizarre to have him there as well it’s a little bit overkill in my opinion but yeah Vanderpool is a a bit of a magic bullet he can really just give a a Phillips and a bit of edge over everybody else so it’s a really interesting battle primarily between those three but I don’t know do you even think the green jersey is going to go to a sprinter i also wanted to say to be Lun obviously I’m going to say him friend of the channel to be as Lun and uh Denmark don’t often have a sprinter and now we finally have one jacobson obviously health issues so uh see what he can do he’s very fast when he’s given the opportunity but yeah know that green jersey kind of very open where that’s going to go and I mean I think that’s a good part to bring in the man we haven’t named yet the pride of air at Treya Binyam Gumay winning last year taking three stage win such an amazing success story that what do you think Binium Gumay is doing this year yeah he hasn’t won a stage or any victory since the third win he took which is of course alarm bells for many cuz the sprinting game is a lot about getting confidence and then yeah we saw that with him he took the first stage then yeah you take the second stage and third stage yeah so his form was a lot better despite crashing at the Jirro last year going into here because he did take the So Belge Classic and he was more in the mix in the GP in some of the Brussels cycling classics so yeah I must admit I’m a bit worried about Interm’s Tour to France and they did also say at the team presentation in January their goal was one stage win it wasn’t dominate again or we’re going to improve on next year i don’t think Alison Jasper Philipsson was saying we’re aiming for one stage win in the team presentation in January they were definitely saying three four five you see what I mean so already that mentality for me was kind of like why are you saying one you should be saying all guns blazing four five whatever is a little bit concerning but his form hasn’t been well or he hasn’t won this year but at the same time I feel like sprinting is a weird game where you can look in bad form and you just start stringing stuff together like you say you just get that momentum and things just start going your way and the dominoes start falling in in your direction and I feel like unlike the GC game like you can have bad sprinting results that you could just have a had a bad run of just being boxed in getting swamped at the wrong time you know just not jelling with your lead out train for whatever reason like you could just lose it mentally you just don’t go for gaps which aren’t there like it’s it’s a bit more of a lottery I feel and like just a GC game which is more predictable so you just don’t know like he yes he hasn’t had the results but you don’t know if that’s actually because he’s like form wise or it’s just a bad series of of of scenarios that we don’t know about
he did have some bad luck in Bula de Mayen but it wasn’t the highest field of sprinters that’s the only concerning thing was that they didn’t drag back I think it was Pa but he did win the the gallop to the line behind quite comfortably so it’s also that kind of thing but in the tour obviously no one’s getting away on a sprint stage
so
it’s whether his sprint team are strong enough to get him in the on the right wheel at the right time we talked about this last year that sometimes that there was a bit of disconnect but now there is another year’s gone hopefully they like got to know each other better so yeah I hope it goes well but yeah there’s for me there’s a lot of question marks h yeah quite understandably now I also don’t think their team is really at the moment built towards a huge leadout train there’s Binnie Ugo Page Lawrence Rex George Zimmerman Kobe Coulson and Louis B okay you probably need at least you’re going to need another two guys for the lead out train there in my opinion hugo Page and Rex both good choices in that in that scenario but I think you’re going to need another couple of guys in there to really add uh you know some fuel to the fire and u you know Benny does better in the reduced sprints seemingly or at least ones which are a little bit more uphill you know a little bit attritional but he you know he has won flat pure bunch sprints i think it was like stage three last year but he got that stage win one which Philillips and crashed in so I think that Binnie he he can still do it i think like uh things are just going to start going his way and like as long as he’s climbing all right he’s got going to have a few more opportunities than than other sprinters
yeah that’s true the only alarming thing is that we’ve got sort of quick step and little trek very eager in the sprints so yeah it’s going to be the Malia and the Milan Express and you kind of have to try and salvage as much as you can and be on the right moment and do a Jake Stewart I think yeah Jake Stewart proves it you can get the better of these guys well Meria wasn’t there but you know what I mean come from Yeah and pounce at the right moment but anyways now coming to our favorite part of the show and of course this is going to be Yeah our prediction and it’s going to be all the jerseys top five no the top 25 i’m kidding we can do the top three maybe top four that just to make it a bit interesting so who misses out of the podium and all the jerseys but uh yeah Patrick do you want to start what jersey do you want to start with obviously not yellow uh the polka dots yeah polka dots i It’s a real tricky one i’m going to go with somebody it would be quite easy to I think just to go like Pogy could definitely win it and it’s quite realistic but for the sake of like just doing something a little bit different I’m going to actually go with somebody who I think is going to win it from like a breakaway scenario i’m going to go with Santiago Bago
oh good shot
he was he was up there
yeah like he was up there in some like fighting for K points in the name that’s generally a little bit of a good sign like I can remember Chicone doing that before he went on to go and fight for polka dots so I think Boyago but I mean I’ll maybe like I’ll let you say yours and then maybe mention some other people who are good choices
i was going to say his teammate Lenny Martinez actually so that’s quite funny your team yeah yeah I think it makes sense like they’re they’re a team which is uh I know that has doesn’t have like big GC favorite but they like to get involved a lot but I think that you know guys like uh like scale Mercen I think could be a good contender as well they don’t have like a big mountain support but he’s got like just enough there to help him out in a breakaway setting or you might see like Carrop obviously who won it last year and he’d be a big contender maybe like somebody from I don’t know like Vocal possibly or even Louis Bah he was very good in the in the do Aana Aan are going to try and get it as well like they did the Jurro
like a champas only there’s like there’s loads of options actually to be to be going at anyway green jersey oh wait no let’s do white jersey and then green jersey
white jersey see I just feel like But so it’s it’s pretty much for me it’s a Nepal versus Leapit i will go with a Neapol okay slightly boring but I will go with Joe Blackmore no I’m kidding uh well to Lavan winner winning white jersey the following year is not unheard of yeah that’s true
but uh I’ll go for Well I’ll go for Leaper to make it a bit so we spread spread our chips across black and uh red uh green jersey this one’s going to be interesting maybe you should say best sprinter as well so green jersey and best sprinter and how many stages
i was going to say I think the best sprinter will be Merly i think he’ll win three stages but I think that the green jersey will go to Pagatcha say that again you cut out uh from what uh you the name
okay um but I think the green jersey will go to Picatcher [Laughter] yay listen I I honestly think it might happen like you look at the number of like there’s not that many sprint stages they’ve got they got like six haven’t they and they get like 50 points for each of them and like I know the mountain ones don’t give us many but there’s some like medium ones in there in that first week those puncher stages where the sprinters aren’t going to be competitive but there’s still some decent points available the TTS as well Pogy will gain a few there like mathematically I do think that Pogy could be up there in the sprinters classification so it’s a it’s a bold one i don’t think many people will say that Pogy would win it
oh my god we’re not either of us are not going to pick a sprinter for this that’s incredible i mean did we count Peter Sagan as a sprinter he’s kind of like a Well obviously he did well he didn’t win many sprints but he did win sprints and he was up there he was more of well we all know he’s like a hardy sprinter classics even though he has finished on podium in amto gold but that was that was a longwinded anyway my best sprinter is going to be Yasper Philips in three stages cuz you you stole my pick so I’m just going to go different and I think or should I say gentleman that seems boring and my green jersey yours was way more shocking but mine is as we say whatever Wild Bernard can do Macho Vanderpool can do so I’m saying Macho Vanderpool wins the green jersey this year cuz he’s seen what Yasper Philipsson has and he wants it he was annoyed that his jersey was stolen by Tad of Gachas and now he’s going to steal Jasper Philipsson’s jersey from two years ago
true he was doing very well in the open
your top four of the Tour to France 2025 no pressure
oh god this is difficult isn’t it it’s that fourth place honestly that’s that’s doing me in my podium is actually quite locked in my head it’s the fourth place that’s I’m just scrolling through the stylist trying to think of like the name that’s just going to really like stand out to me i’m I’m looking at like other domestics of the big teams as well whether they might do something leap often but a little bit more unproven over three weeks okay this is a little bit boring but generally the tour kind of goes this way fourth place Apapool third place Almeida second place Vingo first place Pagacha yeah fair enough makes sense
yeah well you open the door for me to go crazy so that’s good well as always
uh I’m not quite going to say Lenny Martinez becomes the first Frenchman to win the tour not Not that bold um I’m going to say fourth place we’re going to have Ben O’ Connor third place Yonas Bingo second place Tagacha and the winner is Jah Ma the first Portuguese to ever win the tour to France i thought I was pretty bold putting in like I thought third place I was like that’s a nice level of you know probably going to happen but f first place well I’m I’m just saying world champions curse of the rainbow jersey do curse of the rainbow curse of that winning thing we think there is a correlation between winning the to Swiss and winning winning winning the tour to France ekken Bernal did that in 2019 the moons are aligning the planets are aligning nostradamus predicted it so
check chapter five
yeah well you think that just been he’s been weaving like do like you know dodging and weaving bobbing and diving these places too much and you know it’s it’s the due time and it’s high noon on the uh the superstitious front and it’s time for Pagatcha to pay his fees for dodging the world champs and do a like conspiracies so now we can’t win all right fair enough that’s
it’s going to be Visma trying to play No it’s going to be UAE playing 200 IQ 3D chess 4D chess and they’re going to throw Almeida up the road but
Visma going to call their bluff and not chase him back so he ends up getting 8 minutes and then the battle behind with Yonas Bingo just carries on for the next many days but it’s increasingly uh Almeida holding them off
okay suddenly the theory doesn’t sound that bad there you go people yeah get to your favorite bookies website right now
oh my goodness that’s going to be a lot of money if he did win anyway uh bonus round who’s going to be the best French rider in GC i will go with I’ll go with Oh it’s kind of basic though isn’t it there we go dude even after the Jirro okay there we go i’ll say Lenny Martinez yeah I thought he would do
easy i think I picked him for free jerseys and free things but yeah no it should be a good one and of course uh yeah we’ll be doing videos during the race as well when Patrick’s not at the race itself but I think that’s it for our previous show uh it’s been a blast as always make sure to hit the like button subscribe to the channel and let us know down below what you think of this year’s Tour of France as well check out Patrick’s own channel How Do Cycling and we also have our podcast version as well on Spotify so that’ll be in the link in the description or in the pin comment so uh yeah I think that’s all any final words for the preview show of the year Patrick just viva all right thank you and see you in the next one