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The Kursk offensive began in August, but its origins date back to two months earlier. This video tracks Ukraine’s concerns about U.S. politics going back to June, and how they compelled Ukraine to take a gamble in Russia. We then explore the details behind a potential Trump peace plan and how the Kursk offensive may change its feasibility.
0:00 The Origins of the Kursk Offensive
1:01 The Washington NATO Summit
4:55 Ukraine’s Election Conundrum
6:23 Formulating Ukraine’s Strategy
10:11 What Would a Trump Peace Plan Look Like?
13:05 Why the Plan Is Coherent
21:36 How Holding Russian Territory Changes Peace Deals
23:36 Invalidating Pessimistic Beliefs and Changing the Election
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0):
By Mil.gov.ua:
https://www.mil.gov.ua/content/stuff/Syrskiy_big_new.jpg
https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/ministry-of-defence-leader/lieutenant-general-valerii-zaluzhnyi.html
By Rosavtodor.ru:
http://rosavtodor.ru/about/upravlenie-fda/upravlenie-stroitelstva-i-ekspluatatsii-avtomobilnykh-dorog/transportnyy-perekhod-cherez-kerchenskiy-proliv/novosti/301381
By Kremlin.ru:
http://kremlin.ru/news/20604
http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/keywords/78/events/50329
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/51352
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55063
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58405
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62275
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65973
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69101
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69465
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70576
http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71452
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73411
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73648
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/74871
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/74874
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/74920
By Mil.ru:
https://structure.mil.ru/management/info.htm?id=11854308@SD_Employee
Media licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0):
By Ministry of Defense UA:
37 Comments
Let us never forget to recite: “F#%€ Mike Johnson,” for holding back Ukrainian aid for his own political gain.
Thanks William! Always an great breakdown and analysis of what if and why not!
Cheers!
Rocky Mountain Region-USA
They don't have to oust Putin, just outlive him.
There needs to be a ceasefire, but during that time putin is dealt with. Replaced by someone who isn't going to break the agreement like putin has done every single time. Whether its a ceasefire, a coup, or whatever. Putin is the target, he has to go no matter what
Entitled Bibi Netanyahu can learn a lot from this very intelligent Ukrainian leader. Bibi's arrogance and partisan politics play in America has been short sighted and has alienated many friends in Washington. He gambled on Trump returning to the White House and the Democrats called his bluff. He better starts a serious build bridging campaign now before it is too late.
the controversky joke was … well …
15:11 It's not just increasing costs to Putin, but reducing the rewards
Russia has had something like 1-2 of its soldiers killed for every square kilometre of land taken since 2022
If Ukraine can recapture most of its territory, that will vastly increase that ratio, and alter Putin's calculations for how much he can expect to take on restarting hostilities
How much it would take to change Putin's mind is the <insert large quantity of money> question
Bovine feces
A vote for Trump is a vote against democracy, both here and abroad.
Your funniest video since 2021, really enjoyed.
The Trump camp ceasefire idea is a "solution" for 10-20 years at best.
1) "demilitarized" zones become the most militarized zones on the planet…
2) Russia getting 20% of Ukraine's territory would be a victory
3) Ukraine not joining a military alliance/ hosting friendly soldiers would be an invitation for attack in the future. And promise of "increased aid" in case of next attack is only a promise. It might not be worth much in the future Just like the promise Ukraine got 30 years ago that "guaranteed" it's sovereignty. It's worth less than a roll of toilet paper now.
And what good is aid if half of the country gets overrun by the enemy? Russians will prepare a bit better after the 2022 lesson. Without actual soldiers on top of equipment a country with 3x less people can't win.
The only way the ceasefire would be permanent is with Ukraine joining nato and having nato soldiers on the ground. Or get like 400 nukes and medium range missiles if it's supposed to be a neutral country between nato and russia
For erecting Trump on the USA, Putin shall have to go for his sin …
Nothing that the NATO members will do will change Trumps view on the alliance.
He is a autarkic sociopath, he hates any kind of ties or reliance on others unless he has full control over them.
As a result he hates things like NATO, WTO, UN and NAFTA.
"I'm voting for Pedro Sanchez. Who do you think??" 26:47
Well, according to your own logic, both hypothetical groups also view a continuation of the war as better than a cease fire. Soon Russia will be bankrupt. Both groups would prefer an end to the war and and end to future threats from Russia.
Trump will never support the plan you mention.
Trump hates being told by others and will refuse their suggestions if those are public.
He sees following advice of others as weakness.
I can't help but think that if I was an NS advisor to Zelinki, We would have drawn up a doomsday m a d scenario for Russia which basically means Moscow a year and a half ago. Russia cannot occupy Ukraine in my opinion and if you're serious about Ukrainian independence you're going to be willing to risk everything to keep it and to not just bloody moscow's nose but to cut it off
8:28 Hey that's a Joe Hendry's reference 😀
After the one about Scott Steiner's math I have to admit: I want to see a Pro Wrestling PPV with you haha
Anyone that thinks that Ukraine will be able to hold any of the ground they have taken recently is a delusional.
The Elephant in the room is the state of Russia, it is almost Bankrupt its economy and currency is on its knees and will get worse this winter. Its war machine is virtually spent and its war machine and war economy will collapse in 2025. The Russians are beginning to realize that Russia can lose this SMO. so as its pretty much guaranteed that Trump will be in the White House in 2025 why should Ukraine agree to peace talks. Ukraine has the F16s they have weapons which are superior to what Russia has and Russia's superior numbers are no longer there now and Russia cannot manufacture the planes and tanks that are being lost. They will still have the support of a large number of NATO countries plus the likes of the Pacific rim who realize if Russia gets to keep what they have stolen, China will do the same. If I was Ukraine I would say to Trump if he wants to push Ukraine into talks, thanks for what you have done so far, thank you, but we will get the job done with are allies and partners Slava Ukraine
Trump derangement syndrome.
It's hard to take any plans serious that doesn't include Trump's grift, how is Trump going to make a huge amount from this timeline? The only way is if he gets huge donations from the military industrial complex. So we would have to happen in an election year, not just after an election. Of course any laws would just be ignored by the courts.
A very good overwiev of the situation. However we have to take account of internal factors in Russia, due to Putins weakness in his response to the Kursk incursion and the internal Kreml infighting that is coming. Maybe Putin is on his way out of the door (life)?
My God how can any rational, reasonable patriotic American embrace ole bone-spurs. He's someone who apparently detests democracy as shown by Jan 6/21. He likes authoritarians and the under-educated according to his own claims. Leaving the Ukrainians to the gentle mercy of little aging putin is an American no no in my humble opinion as a patriot.
Trump would ask Putin to send Russian troops to encircle Washington DC to protect him from his political rivals.
Does not matter, trump won't win.
One of the great flaw of realpolitik is to assume total rationality in all actors.
As it stands, Putin loses it as the war goes on.
It is why nuclear weapons are so dangerous beyond the sheer destructive capabilities.
If the Ukrainian Summer counter offensive in 2023 proved anything, its that Ukraine no longer has the ability to retake its own land – while continuing to lose more of its own land – and such is why Ukraine felt the need to try and take some Russian lands instead of retaking its own lands. Such is why, for the sake of peace, Ukraine should give up trying to retake its land/take a Russian land, but stabilize the front and set up defensive lines.
It has been written that Donald Trump 2nd term in the white house will bankrupt the United States due to big mistakes in both domestic and international policies! Just like his mouth is!
Trump's proposal would be as successful as how he handled the war in Afghanistan.
You don't start with communicating that you will leave and stop support before even beginning cease fire negotiations.
Thank you for explaining this! Nobody else has explored the nuances of this strategy. Trump knows how to deal with leaders, especially dictators. I have supported Ukraine throughout, but I think the 30 countries can now take the lead and we can spend money at home
W Joe Hendry references
Zelensky already burned bridges with Trump. The day he refused to initiate a fake accusation against Biden. Which Trump blames for his first impeachment. Trump has never run any policy on rationality. He runs on revenge.
The only thing Zelensky can do is show Trump up.
Let's just address the elephant in the room. Trump loves dictators because he wishes he could be one. His worshippers want one too. That's with all the "Trump 2020/24 AND BEYOND!!!" shirts are about. They admit they want to violate the constitution and install a dictator. They really want Putin, but they can't have him so they settle for the fat, orange Great Value Putin.
Then you have the Democrats that gaslighted insistence that Biden was demented for 4 years. This all started early in his campaign. You were lambasted for suggesting he had cognitive issues. You were laughed at and called crazy, accused of spreading misinformation because the holy, sacred, morally superior Left is the Guardian of Truth, right? The left fucking deserves what's about to happen. They've pushed insane social engineering on everyobe and crammed disinformation down our throats and their media has helped them do it. Now they're a party of lies, schizophrenic social justice theories and pregnant man emojis and if you have an objection to any of it you're a bigot.
Goddammit we're fucked. Sane moderates that actually love the constitution are just fucked. We're either going to live in 1984 or Handmaid's Tale if either side gets their way.
"Hello, Donny? Vlad here. Your ol' buddy Poot. Congrats on the election. Remember those videos we talked about in Helsinki? You know the ones… So let's talk about that aid to Ukraine shall we?"
why are we paying for Ukraine's war again?
lamo the cope from the ((Crimea Beach Party)) 2023 group lol crazy people in 2024 still think somehow UA will come out of this with all its land and Rus just going home