Which bike makes the most sense based on my geometry? Or does it matter that much?

There’s a lot more to buy bike fitting than stack, reach and T.T. Seat angle, head angle, rear center/chainstay length, front center, stand over plus stem length/rise, amount of available length on the steerer tube for spacers, the particular handlebars with reach/drop/sweep…, crank length… I would also want the option of running wider (2.3″+) tires for off road use plus having mud clearance. Depending upon the method for finding your recommended stack/reach/T.T. – it could be dead on and it could be an educated guess. Just taking measurements and plugging them into a formula to decide is an educated guess. Taking numbers, comparing those numbers with what you already have (assuming that you’ve got a bike that works great for you already), testing your flexibility in your hamstrings, hips, back/low back… talking with the fitter about past injuries/issues, trying multiple tweaks on a fit bike (or an adjustable sizer stem) and then trying to spend some long hours on the bike to test the tweaks. There’s a difference between a bike that feels fine for rides under an hour and feels good after multiple days of 6+ hours on that bike. Another big factor is how much stuff you’re going to be carrying. Trip length and the amount of stuff someone brings has surprisingly minimal correlation. Knowing that you’re a light packer (or not) is important. Some bikes are better at being a pack mule than others.