Very, very nice looking bike my dude. The paint job looks amazing from this distance. Can you tell me what paint you used and what your technique was? I’m thinking about painting a bike using bike.spray.
These Eastern brands have fascinated me for a long time. And, over the last 5 or so years they have gotten so damn good. Like, really, the stuff coming from the Chinese brands has gotten really, really good. Much of it better than Western brands.
For those that don’t know, about 90% of all bike parts come from China. Regarding carbon fiber, that number grows, and almost all carbon fiber parts are coming out of Xiamen China. This is where all the Western factories are too.
This brand is coming out of Shen Zhen, however, I would not be surprised at all if the actual bike was built is Xiamen. Shen Zhen is right outside of HK, and most bikes are exported through HK. If you look at say a Specialized, Santa Cruz, or Enve bill of import for example, you’ll see that the origin was Shen Zhen, however, all of their factories are in Xiamen.
You’ll also see a lot of brands headquartered in Shen Zhen, but if you dig a little, you’ll find that their factories are actually located in Xiamen. Xiamen is like the capitol of carbon fiber bicycle production. A hub. All the big Eastern and Western brands are there.
Why are the Chinese bikes/parts getting so good? Also very interesting.
The cost of labor for this type of work in China is going up fast. Which is a whole other phenomenon all on its own. Cheap Chinese labor is drying up. Google ‘bai lan’ or ‘let it rot’. Basically, Chinese youth got sold a future of higher education and white color work. The idea was go pay for college, and we’ll have a good job for you. This entire generation got educated, but China failed to transition to a knowledge based economy instead of a labor and manufacturing based economy. Something a country *must do* if they are going to educate the youth.
So, all these kids got degrees, but now the only jobs left for them are what is called 996 jobs. Meaning, you work in manufacturing for fucking cheap and your work schedule is 9am-9pm 6 days a week. Right? Fuck that. So, none of the youth want these manufacturing jobs because well, *fuck that*.
On top of all of this, the Chinese population pyramid is upside-down because of restrictive child birth policies. Plus, everyone had boys. So not only are there too many old people who need to stop working, the younger generation isn’t having kids because well, there isn’t anyone to have kids with. Looking at Chinese demographics, the only demographic that doesn’t have a significant disparity between male and female is those aged 65 and above.
The population replacement rate is the rate of births that need to occur in order for an economy to maintain its workforce. That number is 2.1 children per woman. China has been under this since 1991. Couple that with the fact there are more males than woman, the Chinese population replacement rate should actually be higher than 2.1 children per woman, it right now sits at 1.16. That is absurdly low, especially for a manufacturing economy.
All of this means the cost of labor in China is rising.
How does this effect bikes? Well, *most* Western brands contract their manufacturing through Chinese owned facilities. The labor rate in the facilities is rising, bikes are becoming more expensive for the Western brands to purchase, so they are starting to look for manufacture elsewhere. Inida, Vietnam, other parts of Southeast Asia, whatever…
What happens if the Western brands stop contracting with these factories? The Chinese owners of these factories are left holding the bag. So what have they done? Started making there own bikes and components. Of course, right? What else would they do?
And that, is what we are seeing now. So many awesome bikes and components are hitting the market from these factories. Factories that produced for Trek, Giant, Specialized, Pinarello, Scott, BMC, Cervelo, Cannondale, Caynon, you name it, the list goes on. All of these big brands are leaving these Chinese factories holding the bag. So, they are bringing their own brands to market, with all the expertise they have acquired from decades of manufacturing the best bikes in the world.
Now, what does this mean? In my opinion, I think the quality disparity between Western and Eastern brands is about to flip. For years, decades, many people have scoffed at the Chinese brands and the Aliexpress stuff. And, they were right to do so. All of the best carbon manufacturing was tied up in Western brand’s contracting.
However, as the Western brand leave the Chinese factories in search of cheaper labor in India, they are leaving that factories expertise behind as well. And, those factories are not going to stop making bikes, because they cannot.
The best bikes in the world are made in Xiamen, that is not going to change. What is going to change is the badge on the headtube and the logo on the downtube. Not who is making that bike.
5 Comments
Your bike got that granite countertop color
Terreno dry is good?
No info about what bike etc?
What frame is that?
For those curious like I was:
[https://www.bxtcycle.com/carbon-gravel-bike-frame_p70.html](https://www.bxtcycle.com/carbon-gravel-bike-frame_p70.html)
Looks like you paid around $500 for it?
Very, very nice looking bike my dude. The paint job looks amazing from this distance. Can you tell me what paint you used and what your technique was? I’m thinking about painting a bike using bike.spray.
These Eastern brands have fascinated me for a long time. And, over the last 5 or so years they have gotten so damn good. Like, really, the stuff coming from the Chinese brands has gotten really, really good. Much of it better than Western brands.
For those that don’t know, about 90% of all bike parts come from China. Regarding carbon fiber, that number grows, and almost all carbon fiber parts are coming out of Xiamen China. This is where all the Western factories are too.
This brand is coming out of Shen Zhen, however, I would not be surprised at all if the actual bike was built is Xiamen. Shen Zhen is right outside of HK, and most bikes are exported through HK. If you look at say a Specialized, Santa Cruz, or Enve bill of import for example, you’ll see that the origin was Shen Zhen, however, all of their factories are in Xiamen.
You’ll also see a lot of brands headquartered in Shen Zhen, but if you dig a little, you’ll find that their factories are actually located in Xiamen. Xiamen is like the capitol of carbon fiber bicycle production. A hub. All the big Eastern and Western brands are there.
Why are the Chinese bikes/parts getting so good? Also very interesting.
The cost of labor for this type of work in China is going up fast. Which is a whole other phenomenon all on its own. Cheap Chinese labor is drying up. Google ‘bai lan’ or ‘let it rot’. Basically, Chinese youth got sold a future of higher education and white color work. The idea was go pay for college, and we’ll have a good job for you. This entire generation got educated, but China failed to transition to a knowledge based economy instead of a labor and manufacturing based economy. Something a country *must do* if they are going to educate the youth.
So, all these kids got degrees, but now the only jobs left for them are what is called 996 jobs. Meaning, you work in manufacturing for fucking cheap and your work schedule is 9am-9pm 6 days a week. Right? Fuck that. So, none of the youth want these manufacturing jobs because well, *fuck that*.
On top of all of this, the Chinese population pyramid is upside-down because of restrictive child birth policies. Plus, everyone had boys. So not only are there too many old people who need to stop working, the younger generation isn’t having kids because well, there isn’t anyone to have kids with. Looking at Chinese demographics, the only demographic that doesn’t have a significant disparity between male and female is those aged 65 and above.
The population replacement rate is the rate of births that need to occur in order for an economy to maintain its workforce. That number is 2.1 children per woman. China has been under this since 1991. Couple that with the fact there are more males than woman, the Chinese population replacement rate should actually be higher than 2.1 children per woman, it right now sits at 1.16. That is absurdly low, especially for a manufacturing economy.
All of this means the cost of labor in China is rising.
How does this effect bikes? Well, *most* Western brands contract their manufacturing through Chinese owned facilities. The labor rate in the facilities is rising, bikes are becoming more expensive for the Western brands to purchase, so they are starting to look for manufacture elsewhere. Inida, Vietnam, other parts of Southeast Asia, whatever…
What happens if the Western brands stop contracting with these factories? The Chinese owners of these factories are left holding the bag. So what have they done? Started making there own bikes and components. Of course, right? What else would they do?
And that, is what we are seeing now. So many awesome bikes and components are hitting the market from these factories. Factories that produced for Trek, Giant, Specialized, Pinarello, Scott, BMC, Cervelo, Cannondale, Caynon, you name it, the list goes on. All of these big brands are leaving these Chinese factories holding the bag. So, they are bringing their own brands to market, with all the expertise they have acquired from decades of manufacturing the best bikes in the world.
Now, what does this mean? In my opinion, I think the quality disparity between Western and Eastern brands is about to flip. For years, decades, many people have scoffed at the Chinese brands and the Aliexpress stuff. And, they were right to do so. All of the best carbon manufacturing was tied up in Western brand’s contracting.
However, as the Western brand leave the Chinese factories in search of cheaper labor in India, they are leaving that factories expertise behind as well. And, those factories are not going to stop making bikes, because they cannot.
The best bikes in the world are made in Xiamen, that is not going to change. What is going to change is the badge on the headtube and the logo on the downtube. Not who is making that bike.
Thank you for coming to my ted talk.