Milan San Remo 2024 Preview Show – Can Mathieu van der Poel be STOPPED?

Milan San Remo 2024 will have many big players such as Mathieu van der Poel, Tadej Pogacar and Mads Pedersen to name a few but the finale on the Poggio should be a very exciting one.

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00:00 Intro
00:20 Previous Editions
02:16 Route Analysis
03:58 Mathieu van der Poel to win Milan San Remo Again?
07:47 How Does Tadej Pogacar win?
12:16 Mads Pedersen and Lidl Trek to Win?
15:19 Other Favourites
24:14 Prediction

Hello everyone and welcome to another preview show here of another Monument actually the first one sorry Patrick no money and today we’re going to discuss the roote the favorites the predictions everything and as I said I’m here with Patrick Blake out of cycling and yeah Patrick Milano what kind of sticks to

Your mind when you think of this race I think that Sano oh I got to Twitter SP about this but I think that San rmo provid the the guaranteed 10K like best racing of the year and you know in San Rama that if you tune in for the last 20K

You’re going to get action and you know that it’s going to happen in the last 20ks whereas I don’t think you get that with other races in some other big races other monuments the race can be decided with 20K to go whereas I feel like with Sano it’s always quite this is big

Crescendo up to the podo and I really like that I know that it is a really long race and it’s a bit of a snoozefest but I think if you tune in for last you know 30 minutes an hour I think you’re in for a real treat and we’ve had some

Fantastic additions of course Vanderpool winning it last year I mean I looked at stat I don’t think there’s been I don’t think any Rider has well the last 10 years we’ve had a different winner each time which is an incredible stat when you think about it I’m not sure if there

Are many races which can can say that and that just really shows this the lottery element of Sano you can you know you can being good form or whatever and you could be the best Rider but I think it’s uh there is certainly it’s a really

Hard race to win there at the age old saying of it’s the easiest Monument to finish but it’s the hardest one to win uh just because it’s there’s so many riders who can be competitive so I really love this race I think that it it’s underrated in my eyes famously the

Only monument that Philip be didn’t win unfortunately Phish on the podium though but yeah that last year the did we really had the galacticos up there with Ghana as well Ghana surprising but that big punch by mag V I think that was actually the fastest Ascent of the podo

I saw on in an article but yeah I mean we’ll get into it but in terms before we go into the favorites Patrick what does the route look like well has it changed much it’s 288 km so it is the longest race of the year it is a slightly different start so

It it doesn’t actually start in Milan it starts in Pavia which is just south of Milan and we’ll make our way down to the Mediterranean Post Line and then we just head along there in the very standard route taking in some little climbs including obviously the depressor which

Is 5.6 km at an average of 4.1% the first few K of about first 4ks about averaging 5% of then we move on to the podo which is 3.7 km at 3.7% those steeper gradients coming in the first half of a maximum gradient of 8% before we drop down the hair raising descent

Which we’ve seen lots of uh lots of fantastic descending on sh the last few years and then that takes us down onto the Voda and down into Sano pretty basic so basically the only thing that changes year on year is where it starts and kind

Of who sponsors the the start and but we always end up on the coastal route with the Chessa and the podo as per usual for expected weather at the moment it’s going to be a fine day and it could be a Tailwind actually so that could make the

Tresso and podo a little bit harder with there’s a bit less draft by sitting in the wheels just means that maybe we’ll get some faster ascents so that could certainly open up a day but it looks like it’s going to be very dry very sunny so no risk of rain at the moment

Yeah looks like we won’t have any uh crazy weather taking place to kind of ruin the race which is good to see well we might as well start with the double world champion in terms of what the titles he’s currently defending in the Cy cross and on the road match of anapol

We’ve already mentioned it won it last year he’s already won parro Bay he’s already won Tor Flanders and here but yeah going into this season no Road preparation whatsoever he did the same thing a few years ago finished third and as you mentioned in the naal cycling podcast that was in some different

Circumstances he didn’t have like this amazing season like he had this year in the secondy cross winning all Races ball one it was the one I was at at Ben Andor decided to crash into a bowl but uh other than that he was absolutely annihilating the competition in every

Single round the last race was the world championships in tour winning that very comfortably that was an exhibition ride more than a race in my opinion him and Max V stappen have very similar dominance when it comes to cycle cross in Formula One both Dutch obviously but

Yeah Patrick in terms of them this year in the hlon another shulist plug you also spoke about the kind of secret weapon that they also have in terms of well not secret plan B of yasper philipson and that sounds very bad to call Jasper Phillipson arguably the best

BR to app plan and B but he’s there nonetheless yeah opson they’ve got a really a really strong Squad obviously they start match V the Paul with number one on his back as the defender winner of this race but like we said nobody has won this race more than once in the last

Kind of 10 years so the ODS against Matthew but I think if anybody’s going to do it it’s going to be him so he has a team including goal Yodi hullman ccla Anderson who was very influential in his victory last year Axel laon makes his debut of this race Xander moisa and as

You said yper philipson who was looking very good at training adriatico was beaten by Jonathan Milan but he did also pick up his own Victory on the second stage he did have that slight crash on stage three so I think Philipson’s a really interesting option and I think he

Does provide the insurance policy of perhaps sitting in that group behind if attacks do go off the front that philipson can win from a Sprint there I don’t see him following you know the attacks off say like patcha or matu or pedison or whoever it will be I think

That he is more of let you say the the insurance policy and I think that you know if it did come back together philipson would have a really good shot of winning this race for sure but yeah it’s interesting about Matthew he’s got no racing in the leges this year on the

Road last year he had done star biane which didn’t go too well and then in Tero he was leading out yasper Phillipson and then he won this race it’s interesting to note that a couple of years ago he came in off of like some back injuries and stuff in cyc Cross and

He finished third so that is a kind of glimmer of hope that you can come into this race as your first race of the season and you can still do well but even a great match you only came third on that time around so we’ll have to see

If he can come in with no racing of legs and defend his title from last year yeah I I was searching the records and I couldn’t find any Rider who’s done this obviously most Riders before this here always had those pre races and preparation races Tio obviously Paris n

And I can’t find anyone who’s done it none of the great Eddie MKS etc etc Eddie Mar obviously who has the all-time record in this race by quite a large amount seven in total but yeah um we might as well move on you can’t say much of unol these days without saying tcha

As well it is a very hard equation here it’s the one of the strongest kicks in the pelaton on not one of the most challenging climes and there are guys with a bigger engine in terms of the this gradient on CLI obviously he won flesh balloon last year he won the

Baston Le a few years ago as well and lard he’s been dominant rondan vandrin he’s such an incredible Rider when it comes to these One Day races and that 81 kilm attack as well in strata but yeah do you see him doing what will be a Italian hatrick lombardia St and then

Milan Sano that would be incredible there is a good correlation between Riders winning stadia then going on to winning Sano so that’s uh that’s certainly something in his favor but like say it’s the climbs are just not long enough and not hard enough for pogy in theory to make a difference but with

The Tailwind maybe it could be a little bit different I really see a scenario where he needs it to be a bit like I think it was the 2022 Edition where things were really strung out going into the podio where it was only say 20 25 Riders left I think that’s the best

Scenario that poy can look for he is supported by Alexander Kobi Mark Hy sterber Len Brandon MCN D Novak and Diego alissi for me I don’t know it doesn’t feel like the strongest team in the world I’m just thinking about who’s going to be the one really lighting it

Up you know you really need somebody who’s got like they’re almost like a a second tier favorite in their own rights to to light it up you could say Hershey but I don’t know Hershey has been a little bit hot and cold mcti was good in parin oiss K I’m just

Kind of thinking who’s going to be the guy who’s going to be launching pagat out of all these guys is it going to be Hershey is it going to be MCN and I think the fact that I that we’ve got questions over that so I think that it’s

It’s an okay Squad from UI but I do think that it’s perhaps a little bit weak dare I say I’m not sure if weak is the right word but it’s a little bit it’s not as strong as I thought it would be I do think that you know they’re are

Probably stronger teams in this race but saying that if pogy’s pogy just needs to basically go solo I think and that’s what we all sort of agree you know can he go solo on the podo I think it’s going to require his competitors to not be in particularly good form or position

To when he lodges which he absolutely will do if last year is anything to go by because he definitely took about three bites of the Cherry up the podo and uh that’s really good to see because it’s very exciting racing but I I think it’s going to be quite hard for pogy to

Win this this race and you know categorically drop his competition on the podo you know I think well giving an attack on the suppressor is too much I mean 81 km away I know the terrain’s not that hard compared to St it’s completely different Monument um trigger warning moving on

Um yeah we’ve seen teams in the past really put a pace on and the suppress but like the momentum you just you just can’t carry it forward to the podo so you said as well he’s going to be a favorite he is a favorite obviously we

All know what he did as Strada so any turn of a gear and everyone’s going to be on him yeah he almost just needs to try get a a little group away over the top of a podo and then ideally Counterattack once they’ve kind of descended onto the vieta and just go

With somewhere like between kilometer to two kilometers to go and hope that whoever he’s with they look at each other and decide oh I’m not going to be the one to chase that down if then he go solo I think that’s a realistic way that

Poy would win this race is to just go solo with not too long to go you know only like a minute still to go and hope that two other sprinting type guys uh will just look each other into the abyss and just watch him right off but yeah

It’s a tricky one I think but I think that one thing is for certain which is that poy is probably going to be the main animator of this race well we might as well move on in terms of well I we’ll go with your favorite for the race you

Mentioned this on this week’s Eon podcast episode and that was that mass pillon not the Danish person he didn’t say that the man from Yorkshire said Mass Pon is the favorite and I mean little TR for phenomenally strong start to the year obviously new colors well

Not quite but new colors since the tour France last year bringing in Jon to Milan who looked very strong adrea boli who was very good in il lombardia and then obviously their crowning Jewel right now mes Pon who has been very strong in the French races but yeah why

Are you so certain that they’re going to get another win obviously they won with yasper Sten who’s also here but why why are you so confident that m pson is the guy the go-to guy for them I just believe that pedison is in has just looked so good

This year I think he was climbing really well in in parin and I don’t see him getting dropped by pogy so then the question is really match V the pul whether he can drop everyone like he did last year but the fact that mat hasn’t had the racing so far this year does

Provide a bit of a question mark As to wherever he’s going to be able to do that so I’m seeing a scenario where pedison can hang with those top guys we saw it at World Champs last year just how he was on that same level as like a

Wout and pogy he was able to hang with him for a very long time and I could see a scenario where pedison is with those guys in a Sprint finale and I do think that if I had to say that in a realistic group of matchu pater and pedison I

Would say that pedison would be the Victor we’ve seen how good he is after a I say a long attritional day of racing this isn’t the most attritional race but I do think that pederson’s really good at the end of a a long day of racing and

I think that he’s got a really strong team around him B Jolie de clerk Gibbons Alex Kish Jonathan Milan who’s been in fantastic form and yasper stoven I think it’s a very focused team on pison with maybe Milan acting as a bit of a Phillips encounter in the group behind

To kind of be a sprinting insurance policy and I just like the focus nature of got on Pon I think he’s got all the qualities of somebody who can win this race we always say how it’s a miracle that well not a miracle but it’s a

Wonder that San never won this race I feel like Pon is in a very similar bracket to how to what Sagan was back in the day of you know 2016 2017 Sean I feel like he’s really at that sort of point and I see no reason why Pon can’t

Win this rly Peters never won Tour of Denmark but um uh in terms of other teams I think yeah the analogy I’ve never really thought about it but yeah you’re so right can kind of do pretty much anything San’s done he’s up there and yeah I think that’s really really we’ve been focusing

So much on bie being the next again but I think you’re right Mass pillon fits the criteria a bit more but in terms of this Mala bike the yellow elephant in the room fortunately they won’t be wearing those horrendous TT helmets but in ter well who knows they might roll

Out some Road version of it uh let’s not go that but in terms of this team there’s no what not that’s the big headline of this team but uh your favorite Sprinter I would say maybe ol of Ky they looked very strong at Paris KN and then obviously Chrystal who I

Really like as well really gone through that transformation since joining this team and in terms of the team or where they’re kind of aiming for I how do they win this race you got to hope that the port goes with a move that you know that goes up the road from one

Of those guys who we’ve just previously been talking about it’s a bit 5050 in my eyes whether laort makes that move I think he’s looked so good ever since joining y visma now visma Lisa bike he was very good in the opening weekend you know he really looked like he was barely

Even trying and yeah 10 foot stard as well obviously I don’t think that was a race particularly suited to him and I I like that he’s getting leadership here in a way I like that W isn’t Hicks I me we get to see leaport as a leader of

This team at least I think he’s leading like you say Coy is here but I do think that he is a bit like philipson and Milan where he is the insurance policy I just don’t see Coy going with a move he is a sprinter at the end of the day uh I

Think it would be a bit over the top to see him going with a move of matchi vaner but you know what strange things have happened so I see leport being the attacking option KY being the kind of defensive insurance policy could leport win this if he was in that move that I

Was hypothetically saying of pedison Vander Paul and pogy I think that he could have a really good shot he is very fast in a finish could he beat pedison I’d say again you know it’s a bit of a 50/50 it depends how much pedison is working I think on

The kind of run into the vioma could it be a bit like 2017 where kovski won they were just kind of kind of rinsing San making him work on the front P the fastest whether everybody does that with pedison and then leaport can kind of capitalize on that I think that’s

Certainly an option so I think Le’s got a decent shot of winning this race especially since the other rest of the team stanit band sander the two vanas and also Julian vermote it’s very focused around those two Riders of leaport and Koy so I think he’s got a

Really good shot well we might as well go to some well okay it’s a bit disrespectful to put matate morage in the other C other bracket so we won’t do that baring murus obviously we all know that Sensational descent he did down the podo with the what was it called The

Dropper post or whatever an incredible Rider like I’ve followed this guy since he won the junior World Championships and then went on to win the under 23 World Championships I really think he’s in a league of his own on some respect and he’s not quite like how do you

Define a mate hitch I always thought that that was a real struggle he’s not a puncher he’s not really an all and out bubles Rider he’s like this Enigma of a rider but um yeah very good form this year you predict him to win the opening

Stage well one of the stages on to Valencia your connection with him is apparently quite good because he did exactly that yeah but where does he kind of fit into this favores bracket Outsiders bracket is anyone going to really be looking at him if he goes is

He going to be following the moves of a match of wanderpol attack or yeah is is he going to be the kind of Rider that benefits off the big guys looking at each other too much I think he could do you I could definitely see a scenario

Where because we don’t have W vanart here we are down to you know a questionable vandero with no racing pogy and and pedison so I’d say it’s really you know maybe on pogy and pedison do the attacking on the podo and if they get a bit Fed Up of that and say what

You know I’ve just blow it I’m just shooting all my bullets here and nothing’s coming of it and Mahar is still in the wheel then it’s very possible we could have a 2022 repeat where all of a sudden mahor just goes off the front on The Descent and you

Know the last 2K is like a average gradient of minus 0.4% which do seem like much but the fact that it’s just slightly downhill towards pretty much the last kilometer which is the only real like absolutely flat pot it just allows you to carry that momentum keep

It in the 11 or the 10 or you know whatever gears they they’re using and you know just keep that gear rolling and mahor is so good at doing that so I see if if the attacks of a podo aren’t successful or if it’s like pedison like

Oh I’m just going to kind of play it defensive for a Sprint Mahar could go off the front again it’s not completely unprecedented if he rocks up with a drop a seat post I think everyone should be a little bit afraid but that is what’s going to happen because I think you’re

Right nobody’s com cahul is to go with M maharic yeah I think we should move into like kind of The Outsiders there are other Champions here as well Alexander kristo yeah he’s also on the start list these kind of riders winning more in that other era where it was more Sprint well the

Sprinters well dominated the the finish of this race julan Philip obviously here as well there’s question marks over his form kill buan obviously a serial second place finisher with jco YULA interestingly on a dele that we hyped up so much last year to try and maybe win

This he isn’t here form that bad form that he’s been carrying this season obviously not really lending itself to going here which is good we don’t want to see him finish 86 or something uh and then we also have like bam gumay he looked quite comfortable in torano but

Did leave that final stage we spoke about that in the Recaps here on the channel and uh EF education easy P bringing somewhat of a interesting Squad as well and yeah Patrick is there anyone really you’re thinking of uh you were talking about the capital on a2r potentially being Outsider as well yeah

But looked really good this year in my opinion he usually just is a little bit hot and cold he just goes really good in some races and then just does nothing but he seems to have a decent level of consistency he was quite good at start

It’s very easy to forget he was he was sixth place in that race which I think is really good for him to be honest of you and the I’m favoring him I mean also got all of a Nas you know very easy to forget he’s finished in second place in

This race back in 2019 so he’s certainly not to be sniffed out considering that I think he had a very good opening weekend even though he didn’t finish pin so that’s a little bit of a question mark it’s a little bit criminal of me but I haven’t even talked about Tom pitcock

Yet any El just have been a little bit weird so far this year I I don’t know what it is but they just haven’t been quite hitting the Mark I think Ghana had very he had some better results before Sano last year you remember he did San

Juan he won with TT in Tero in very convincing fashion whereas he got beaten by Juan user this time around and he was a little bit AFK for the rest of the race to be honest with you pitcock on the other hand you know decent at stardy

He came n and GC at REO eigh and omloop six and GC at volto out G it’s a decent string of results but it’s just can he go with that attack if it does go he is a fantastic descender so therefore there’s no real reason why he couldn’t

Do a mahic I guess if you want to call it that so I think that maybe I’ve been sleeping on Pitcock a little bit just maybe he is a little bit of a dare I say Dark Horse of this race I don’t think maybe a lot of people are talking about

Him for this race but anyos you’ve got the previous winner in fovi Ghana was very good last year in this race maybe maybe pitock has been a bit underrated for this race and he’s going to he’s a little bit under the radar but uh he’s certainly want to not be sniffed up yeah

I completely agree with that he’s one of the best descenders as well in the pelaton I know he downplays his descending and said that that descent in the T France everyone does that the cameras are just not on when people do that I was like yeah whatever P we saw

Saw your Strada descent that was incredible so uh but um in terms of yeah I think that covers basically The Outsiders for the most part and we we’re thinking it might not be the sprinters who takes and dominates us but we’ll wait and see but in terms of our

Favorite part of the show Patrick predictions and uh how do you think that this year’s Edition going and obviously because we sadly missed the trainer and the Paris n uh previews we haven’t actually done one for we the last one we did was Ute and you got it right with

Trap neck so uh press it on yeah is on um it’s so it’s such a hard one to predict well we Strada did you get we well you got Strada as well but I said that pogy was going to win but I don’t think that was a particularly yeah so

You’re on a good streak that’s what we’re trying to say streak this could be your hattick I’m going to go with dum dum dum dum I I think mass pson comes in third wait what I’m covering a different wait the Asel you specifically said m p

Was winning and I inse secretly I was like yes first Danish winner of Milan R in your face nor way with your Crystal win but you just discarded all that playing the game is here this way I can try and you know smart I think Pon in third think pogy comes

Second and I think that Vis about continue their fantastic run and I think that Kristoff laort wins milanus and Ramo I think that’s I think that Matthew just doesn’t have the legs to go with it on the podu because he’s got doesn’t have a racing it’s a b it’s a Bard call

But I just I’m not certain about matching I am a bit worried because every time he does the first race it’s normally like the strata we saw as well he wasn’t there when that was his first race and then the next race back to winning ways

So but you kind of stole my winner so uh I backed laort for Strada and he finished 10th so uh maybe you can convert it okay I think that we’re going to have third place will be ol of coy second place will be yasper philipsson and the lone

Winner at the front will be the man who finished the hatrick had Bacha wins Milan San Romo as the second ever Slovenian and gets his fourth out of his fifth monument and that’s because I love these monuments I I desperately want someone to finish this collection not that it changes anything but

Uh yeah I’d like to see somebody get all five as well it would be a a really big achievement and I think that pogy’s got a Best Shot doing it POG on three and match maniple on three yeah but there’s no way like Vander Paul’s going to win a really

Weird edition of larda to complete this set well we might as well do a bonus one as well um where do you think who should we go for pick a rider and we’ll um well just a random one yeah now or you can go random or former Champion let’s go pitcock

12 uh I think he’ll come eth okay watch him win now anyways that’s basically it for our preview show here of Milan rmo 2024 if you haven’t already make sure to hit the like button subscribe to the channel that really helps and comment down below who you

Think is going to win so perhaps as a community we can get it correct as Patrick got St byan correct several of you got St right U yeah stri right as well and if you haven’t already as well make sure to check out Patrick’s own channel how do cycling and uh yeah if

You want to see more of him go on the exal cycling podcast because that’s the channel where you can see the most of it but with that thank you for watching and we will see you around sh