Israel’s New Air Campaign in Lebanon, Ukraine in Sudan’s Civil War and More

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In all lead story today we’re going to bring you to the sky above Lebanon where the Thunder and Bellow of Israeli air attacks has grown louder and louder in recent days Israel has spent months Prosecuting a brutal offensive in the Palestinian territory of Gaza working to root out the militant terror group Hamas

But for most of that time Israel has also withstood nagging Rock attacks and skirmishes from a close Hamas Ally that Ally lebanon’s political and militant organization Hezbollah has spent recent weeks escalating violence with Israel and now is has responded with the beginnings of a larger air campaign in Sovereign Lebanese territory the latest

Rounds of back and forth strikes between Israel and Hezbollah began on the morning of Wednesday the 14th of February when Hezbollah launched a large barrage of rockets towards Israel their primary target was a military base in the town of safed approximately 14 km that’s 9 mil south of the Lebanese

Border in Israel multiple Rockets struck the base killing one Israeli soldier staff sergeant Omar Sarah Benjo it wounded seven others another rocket landed close to the entrance of the local hospital and SED while still others threatened the Border Villages of netua and Manara although no civilian targets are known to have been hit

Hezbollah took credit for the attack shortly afterward claiming it as part of hezbollah’s ongoing operations in support of the Hamas resistance in Gaza Israel would retaliate on the same day in a series of attacks carried out by fighter aircraft of the Israeli Defense Forces or IDF Israel hit alleged

Hezbollah Targets in several Southern Lebanese towns and Villages their targets ranged from military compounds to control rooms to so-called Terror infrastructure largely belonging to hezbollah’s Elite radwin Commander units whose well-trained operatives have been leading hezbollah’s charge along its border Frontier with Israel the a strikes are believed to have killed a

Minimum of three Hezbollah Fighters including a prominent Commander Ali Al Debs his deputy and a third Hezbollah member but these casualties wouldn’t be the only ones in the lebes village of suan a Syrian woman named rawa al- Muhammad was killed alongside her two young Sons Hassan and air Mosen video

From the village showed at least one burned out car and a destroyed building also killed were seven civilians of the city NAA all of them thought to be from the same extended family as the killed hollah Commander Al Debs three of the deceased were children in the wake of

The Israeli air strikes Hezbollah leaders called for larger scale retaliation while One Source interviewed by Reuters explains that while the attack and its civilian casualties still did fall within the unofficial Unwritten rules of engagements that have dictated hezbollah’s Board of violence with Israel they nonetheless did constitute a significant escalation which in turn

Would demand either a proportional response or escalation by Hezbollah in return for their part Israeli officials expressed a similar sentiment that even these rather wide- ranging air strikes represent only an incremental escalation in the violence said defense minister yv Gallant quoting Hezbollah has gone up by

Half a click and we have gone up by one step but that is one step out of 10 and said Israeli government spokesperson Arvy Heyman the quote message tobah has been and always will be don’t try us as defense minister Gallen said at the beginning of the war we will copy and

Paste what we done in Gaza to Hamas in Lebanon but although both Israel and hesah seemed to agree that allout war is not ideal neither side has showed any intent to step down their hostilities the following day on Thursday the 15th Israel launched a second round of air strikes across dozens of Hezbollah

Targets spread across the Lebanese Southern reaches Hezbollah would report five of their Fighters killed in the strikes coming back the opposite way hasbalah would claim an attack on the Israeli city of Kash Mona using or what it said were dozens of rockets in a direct response to the Wednesday attacks

Alongside the continued attacks coming from both directions International War observers noed how atypical it was that a city like nabatea where the three hollah Fighters and seven civilians were killed would be struck at all nabatea is not particularly close to the Israeli border where most strikes and skirmishes

Have been contained and it’s not the first time that Israel has struck deep into Lebanese territory to kill a Hezbollah commander in Lebanon at least 200 people have died as a result of hezbollah’s ongoing violence with Israel including 170 Hezbollah Fighters while a dozen IDF troops and several Israeli

Civilians have been killed as the fighting gets worse more and more people have been forced to flee both sides of the Border amidst widespread and Justified fears in both Israel and Lebanon over what may come next while it would certainly be unrealistic to expect that either Israel or Hezbollah would

Actively put a halt to their strikes while the other party appears to be escalating it’s important to emphasize that both sides are currently signaling an active interest in keeping the conflict going if not escalating it even further said IDF chief of staff hery hii there are great achievements striking

Hezbollah in Lebanon but we continue to operate this is not the time to stop we are intensifying strikes all the time and Hezbollah are paying an increasingly heavy price hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nala seemed to agree in his own statement to those who threaten us with

A widening of the war if you widen we will too those who think the resistance might be afraid are very mistaken most concerning of all is the prospect that Israel might begin to Target not just Hezbollah Fighters and infrastructure but lebanon’s National military as well until recently that was more of a

Theoretical concern than an immediate one the sort of thing that just about everybody agreed would be a problem but close to nobody seemed to believe was at the top of the priority list but well that all changed in the direct aftermath of the February 14th air strikes with a

Statement from Israeli emergency War Cabinet member Benny gance quoting it is important we be clear the one responsible for the far from Lebanon is not only Hezbollah or the terrorist elements that carry it out but also the government of Lebanon and the Lebanese state that allows the shooting from its

Territory there is no target or military infrastructure in the area of the north and Lebanon that is not in our sites as for why Israel wants to strike Lebanon Beyond just the Hezbollah organization it’s important to understand a key Point here while Hezbollah like the gazan organization Hamas is a non-state

Militant organization that gets a whole lot of funding and operational support from Iran it’s not like Hamas in the way that Hamas is basically isolated within its own territory Hezbollah unlike Hamas plays an active role in the politics of The Sovereign Nation that claims its territory Hezbollah holds 15 of

Lebanon’s 128 parliamentary seats and it’s widely understood to hold a controlling influence in Lebanese Politics as a critical member of the governing Coalition it also directly controls much of lebanon’s territory and it’s seen by many Shia Muslims in Lebanon as their rightful Defender from Israel while the Lebanese mil is a

Largely Christian organization known for its own tiffs with Hezbollah it’s nonetheless under the control of a political majority in which Hezbollah plays a major part whether Israel May suspect that the two groups share closer links than is publicly known or may seek to launch a preemptive strike to prevent

The more dangerous equipment of the Lebanese military from being useful in a potential War it’s harder to say and as for whether Israel could sustain a second front in addition to its ongoing war against Hamas in Gaza at least on paper the answer does appear to be yes

Even with the full force of the Lebanese military behind it Hezbollah would be outmatched in a direct confrontation with Israel regardless of whether it’s facing the entire IDF or the forces left over after Israel’s troops in and around Gaza a facted out Israel proved in both 1982 and 2006 that while attaining

Long-term military objectives in Lebanon might be difficult it’s far less of a challenge to deal with lebanon’s armored vehicles troop columns artillery and that sort of thing in fact the military imbalance between the two Nations has gotten even greater since then just for example Lebanon has a total of nine

Combat capable propeller planes ready to fight off an Israeli air campaign involving hundreds of advanced F-15 and F-16 fighter aircraft and several dozen fifth generation f-35s simply engaging in head-to-head battles Israel would be at a massive Advantage even against a combined Lebanese and Hezbollah assault but far less likely is the prospect that

Israel could just strike the Lebanese military with impunity or with any expectation that a large scale attack would draw Lebanon proper into the war the problem with that comes not from the early battles but from the Quagmire it would create inside Lebanon despite the fact that they’re regarded by Israel and

Much of the western world as terrorists Hezbollah does have broad support inside Lebanon especially in its Southern reaches where the bulk of the fighting would take place a war would likely see Israel drawn into the same sort of staggered Progressive counter offensive it’s wrapped up in inside Gaza fighting

A popular Insurgency with ample resources extensive contingency plans and support by the locals but this time if Israel forces a fight with the Lebanese military it would functionally multiply the number of Fighters Israel would have to wage asymmetric Urban Warfare against it would also mean that those Fighters would have weapons at

Their disposal that far Eclipse anything Hamas can leverage inside Gaza and worse yet is the impact that an Israeli offensive would likely have on lebanon’s future Lebanon has been teetering on the brink of failed State status for the better part of 5 years amidst A desperate financial crisis human rights

Abuses and widespread corruption by the country’s ruling Elite the nation isn’t just unprepared to win a war against Israel it’s not likely to survive one that on its face might seem like an assured victory for Israel but the trouble is Hamas is much better equipped to survive a war than the Lebanese

Government Israel’s war in Gaza is struggling to root out Hamas and most experts agree that it’ll be functionally impossible to actually dismantle Hamas entirely Hezbollah is not only larger better organized better equipped but it’s got far more territory to retreat to inside Lebanon and a supportive population with significantly more

Resources and means to help Hezbollah oppose Israel short of a complete years-long occupation of Lebanon and a systematic extermination of the Hezbollah movement Israel is unlikely to wage a war in Lebanon without some vesage of Hezbollah surviving and when the Lebanese government basically ceases to exist that’ll leave Hezbollah as the

Most powerful organization in what is essentially a power vacuum thus an Israeli offensive against the Lebanese military that’s anything short of a yearslong total war risks empowering Hezbollah to take over Lebanon entirely when that Israeli offensive ends in the days since February the 15th Hezbollah and Israel have showed no sign that they

Might seek to avoid such a path a French proposal to deescalate hostilities while not completely dead in the water is badly stalled nonetheless while the Netanyahu government is facing increased calls from its own political Coalition and from displaced people in Northern Israel to take direct military action Israeli opposition leaders have accused

Israel of surrendering in the face of Hezbollah rocket attacks even despite Israel’s retaliation inside Israel and around the world analysts and commentators have been increasingly bold in suggesting that Israeli Prim Minister Netanyahu and his close allies would benefit directly from a prolonged war in order to prolong his time in office and

Certainly a war with Lebanon would align with that objective if indeed it is the outcome that Netanyahu is after and Hezbollah as we described would stand a gain in the long term from a war that eviscerates the remnants of the Lebanese government as expected the violence has only continued on February the 19th

Israel struck what it claimed were weapons depos in the coastal Lebanese town of Gaz near the city of sidon a full 60 km 37 Mi north of the Israeli border 14 people mostly Syrian workers were reported injured according to Lebanese security forces that strike too was a response to a Hezbollah drone that

Had flown into Israel and exploded and on the same day Hezbollah claimed responsibility for attacks on two Israeli outposts near the border and on Wednesday the 21st Israel launched attacks on Hezbollah command centers and infiltrated Border regions while Hezbollah conducted rocket attacks on Israeli settlements and ordered a cell

Phone blackout among its own Personnel to hide the whereabouts of key leaders and commanders of course all sides continue to insist that the escalation is several steps short of an allout War but their actions increasingly tell a different story and now let’s talk about about Ukraine entering Sudan’s Civil

War now where the landscape not so completely different you could be forgiven for thinking that you were watching footage from the Ukraine war after all the videos have the Hallmarks of kamakazi drone attacks published by both Kev and Moscow the grainy footage shot from on high the way the camera

Moves across a shattered landscape before diving toward its Target the Cutaway to a remote image of said Target exploding but rather than being filmed on the chili Plains of the dabass these images were taken far far to the south over 3,600 km to the South to be precise

In the heart of Sudan Civil War only there aren’t evidence that Sudan’s Waring factions are copying Ukrainian tactics instead if recent reporting is to be believed these drone attack videos evidence of something far more consequential the presence of Ukrainian Special Forces fighting in Sudan’s conflict kicking off in April 2023 the

Sudanese Civil War is currently one of our planet’s great underreported conflicts while Ukraine and Gaza and even smaller conflicts like the gang war in Ecuador Phil headlines you can peruse the media for literally weeks without seeing anything about Sudan this is in spite of the war’s sheer brutality with

Up to 15,000 dead and over 10 million displaced the conflict ranks among the worst in the world at its heart lies a power struggle between two factions the Sudanese Armed Forces saf under General Abdul fat Alan and the paramilitary rapid support Force or rsf under a

Commander known as hedi if you want more details we did a full video on the wars backgrounds and black and media coverage all the way back in November for today though we want to zero in on the unlikely appearance of Ukrainian special forces in that conflict an appearance

That is mostly visible thanks to videos posted online often times these videos take the form of first-person views of drone attacks first emerging in September 2023 these videos have since evolved on social media into a tiny sub genre one in which cars are chased through desert Landscapes before being

Spectacularly destroyed or viewers are given detour of cartoom skyline before the camera smashes into a building but it’s not only drone videos that suggest the Ukrainian presence in Sudan there are videos out there of pale skinned snipers taking shots of Commandos directing fire against distant buildings and then there’s the prisoner video if

You’ve heard about this story before it’s likely due to this one 82c clip published by the K of post on February the 5th it shows a soldier with Ukrainian pches talking to three captured kneeling men two of the prisoners are dark skinned and describe themselves as locals but one is a white

Man speaking Russian as the camera rolls he identifies himself as a member of PMZ Vagner that’s the same Vagner group that captured the city of bmud last May the same one that then tried to march on Moscow shooting down Russian aircraft along the way since the death of its

Leader the aanii progan the group has faded into the shadow somewhat its role in the Ukraine war effectively ended but it’s still out there far from Europe running operations in places like Africa to protect Russian interests and it’s here that we get to the reasons why kev’s forces are in Sudan from all

Available evidence it seems they are in the process of hunting down VNA mercenaries now to be clear not everyone agrees that this is what’s happening speaking to World crunch analyst Hagar Ali from the German Institute for Global and area studies claims that the presence of Ukrainian special forces in

Sudan cannot be authenticated Beyond doubt on their telegram Channel Vagner likewise deny operating in the country privately though Western officials have told Publications like The Economist that at least some of the videos are real that a small team of ukrainians are targeting Vagner and rsf positions in

The heart of this sprawling Civil War if that’s the case then the question becomes well why are they there and we’ll focus on the Ukrainian answer to that in a moment for now though we want to briefly turn our attention to what the sudin might be getting out of bit

And why the Sudanese armed forces and general Abdul Fatar Al Bur and likely invited them in the first place one major reason may well be that the war has so far gone badly for the saf despite having as Sudan’s official Army heavier Weaponry than the rsf the saf

Has been chased out of former strongholds and lost control of 80% of the capital part of this is due to Superior Tactics in the rsf but some of it is also due to supplies of foreign weapons the group has been getting last year an anonymous Sudanese official

Briefed CNN that the rsf had been given badly needed surface to air missiles by Vagner so by some estimates the group may even have supplied up to 90% of the rsf specialized Weaponry now that is most likely an overstatement but it does demonstrate how dangerous the saf thinks

Cooperation between Vagner and the rsf is remember the saf the guys who know Vagner intimately as a legacy of the former regime overthrown in 2019 the Sudanese armed forces were there when Vagner first arrived in Sudan in 2017 as hired goons for former president Omar Al Bashir they they’ve seen the group up

Close and they know how it operates and the fact Vagner aligned with the rsf once civil war broke out clearly scares them this may be why General Abdul Fatar Al burnam reportedly met Ukrainian President Vladimir zilinski last September according to zilinski the two quote discussed our common security challenges in particular the activities

Of illegal armed groups financed by Russia shortly after the First videos of kamakazi drone strikes began appearing online now it’s not to suggest that the saf has hired the ukrainians as mercenaries more likely the two are working in lockstep to disrupt what they perceive as a common problem the Vagner

Group’s plundering of Sudan’s gold since arriving in Sudan Vagner have set up a vast sophisticated gold smuggling operation in a post on substack defense reporter Preston Stewart estimated that the group made around $ 1.9 billion US smuggling nearly 33 tons of gold bullion in the first year of the Ukraine war

Alone prior to Zan’s collapse that gold smuggling was used to pay off the kremin for the weapons it shipped to both the saf and the rsf but it was also a way to circumvent Western sanctions slapped on Moscow in Spring of 2022 after leaving Sudan Vagner gold is reportedly taken to

The United Arab Emirates which then shifts it on to Russia although oh we should note that the UAE denies this whatever the truth there’s no doubt that it’s a lucrative business aside from helping Russia avoid Western sanctions the smuggling also enriches both Vagner and the guys who control the gold mines

The rsf according to Africa Defense Forum quote gold smuggling via the UAE has made the rsf commander General Muhammad hamdan hamti dealo one of Sudan’s richest men and enabled him to finance the rsf’s battle for Supremacy in other words both Ukraine and the Sudanese armed forces would benefit from

Any disruption to this trade and disruption seems to be exactly what Kev is aiming for while the raid special forces are executing seem to be small scale damaging this trade will rob Russia of a valuable source of income while also damaging the rsf’s ability to

Fund itself as such it’s easy to see why and general Abdul Fatar Alan may have agreed to work together yet there are likely other things KV hopes to achieve in Sudan things that are both practical but also psychological on the Practical side Ukraine may be using Sudan as a

Place to Source or move weapons with the usaid package at time of writing still stuck in Congress Kev is desperately short of everything from shells to artillery pieces to air defenses Sudan could therefore be an ideal place for gun running while the saf is too busy

With its own fight to supply shells it’s not inconceivable that other nations are clandestinely shipping Ukraine arms amid the fog of the Civil War useful as this is though it’s probably the psychological side that Kev most cares about a side that sends a message to mercenaries working with Russia cillo

Budanov is Ukraine’s head of military intelligence a 38-year-old with a pension for propaganda and pulling off spectacular stunts behind the lines it’s bov’s people who were behind the destruction of Russian aircraft on air bases hundreds of kilometers from Ukraine likely budanov who directed the bombing of the Kirch straight bridge in

2022 in short his remit is to conduct asymmetric attacks that embarrass or weaken Russia far from the battlefield hence the close attention paid to his statement in May of 20123 quote we will eliminate all Russian war criminals in the world no matter where they are by publishing videos of Ukrainian Special

Forces killing VNA members and destroying their infrastructure in Sudan budanov is sending a message One Design to put the fear of God into anyone helping the Kremlin from abroad a message that simply says you are not safe such tactics Are Not Unusual Israel’s mad routinely assassinates enemies abroad just this week Russia

Seemed to have organized the killing of a Defector who’d fled to Spain still just because others are doing it doesn’t mean it’s not effective and kiv will be hoping that the psychological impact its operations in Sudan spills over into other African nations Vagner are operating in one such example is the

Central African Republic where over a thousand Varner members are exploiting diamond mines and acting as personal protection for president F arange Tuda but it also includes countries such as Mali and Libya where the mercenaries have a more limited presence The Hope might be that other African governments flirting with the idea of employing

Vagner start to think twice after all for all the setbacks Ukraine’s Army may be suffering on the ground it special forces and intelligence agencies remain capable of carrying out spectacular acts of assassination and sabotage still we shouldn’t oversell this while it’s both useful for the saf and unnerving for Vagner that Kev has

Entered the Sudan conflict we shouldn’t expect it to alter the outcome of either War as great as disrupting the flow of gold to Russia is the Kremlin still has other ways of circumnavigating sanctions depriving it of this income will have benefits around the margins but it won’t change what’s happening in Ukraine

Likewise while the rsf benefits from its Vagner connections it’s not being propped up by the group even if KF succeeded in eliminating ating every single Russian mercenary in Sudan the conflict would keep grinding on nonetheless there is one major way in which Ukraine’s actions now may benefit

It in the long run Kev currently has few friends on the African continent compared to Russia many that aren’t actively Pro Putin and neutral or half-heartedly support Ukraine mainly to stay on America and Europe’s good side if the saf win this current conflict though KV may find itself with an

Extremely friendly government sat in cartoon a government that controls one of Africa’s largest most strategically located countries such an outcome is far from certain for most of the war so far the rsf has been making major gains at the saf’s expense just a month or so ago

A victory for hedi appeared all but inevitable but that all changed on February the 19th when the saf broke the siege of Oman that’s Sudan’s largest city according to the Sudan War monitor such a victory could Mark the arrival of a new phase in the nearly year old war

To quote this latest development raises the Army’s hopes of retaking the entire Capital using the same tactics of slow grinding Urban Warfare and to be clear this isn’t something that you should be celebrating both the rsf and the saf are run by Bad Dudes who overthrew a civilian Le government and are both

Guilty of horrific war crimes and in the case of hedi orchestrating the DAR War genocide in the cold logic of diplomatic relations though an saf Victory May give Ukraine a new and much welcome Ally in Africa it may not be likely to change the course of either War but Ukrainian

Operations in Sudan May yet help shape the eventual peace and now let’s pivot to the Democratic Republic of the Congo where fears around a nether free nor fair 2023 election cycle have given way to larger concerns of a likely void of foreign Personnel in the country as a

Baguer United Nations Mission picks up and heads home in recent Weeks news broke that South Africa will be stepping in to fill the Gap with a Detachment of troops several thousands strong in order to try and keep the peace the trouble is South Africa’s current force in the DRC

Is already raising questions about whether the country can keep them safe and this week those questions got a whole lot more dire the incident in question came on February the 15th when the South African military announced that two of its soldiers were killed and another three were wounded when a mortar

Bomb landed inside a foreign military base housing South Africa and other Regional forces the troops at the base were deployed as part of a mission by the regional block sadc the South African development Community which include Zimbabwe Angola Tanzania and other members alongside South Africa basically including everybody south of

The DRC itself the South African casualties on February the 15th were deployed to the Eastern regions of the country as part of a peacekeeping effort to reign in one of the drcs 120 plus armed militias a particularly powerful particularly violent one called M23 the South African deaths were the first

After South Africa began taking part in the sadc’s deployments in the nation no matter the context the deaths of South African troops on a mission where no troops had yet perished would come as difficult news for the nation but it was made all the more relevant by an

Announcement just 2 days earlier made on the 13th of February by South African president sir Raposa according to Raposa via a press release South Africa has made plans to deploy a contingent of 2,900 additional soldiers from its own military to the Congo to Aid in the fight against Rebel groups in the East

Those soldiers are expected to travel to the Congo very soon although they weren’t believed to be present yet when the 15th of February attack took took place and they’re scheduled to remain in the DRC through the end of 2024 they’ll be joined by troops from Malawi and Tanzania in hopes that the combined

Force can bolster the sadc’s current deployment and lock down the violence in the country’s East when they arrive the South African troops will take over for the UN 177,000 strong peacekeeping force known as monusco this included some 12,300 troops and 3,000 civilians and have been ongoing in the Congo since

2010 the congales government had been working to push monusco out for a few months months calling out its failure to protect civilians from the Congo’s ongoing rebellions and armed conflicts just a year later 56 people were killed in the country’s East during government crackdowns against a violent anti- un

Demonstration South Africa will also attempt to assume the duties of East African Community Regional force a short-lived intervention by the East African Community Regional block which includes Kenya Uganda Rwanda and a handful of other nations that operation lasted all of 18 months and it’s likely

To be pushed out soon owing to its lack of willingness to engage in any offensive operations against the Dr sees militias and rebellions so by now it should be plainly obvious that South Africa’s troop deployment no matter the circumstances will be swimming against the tide in the Congo the sadc and South

Africa in particular are making their best attempt to accomplish a mission that spoiled both the UN and their African compatriots from the EAC not only that but they’ll we fighting an uphill battle against popular sentiment in a country where people are weary of foreign intervention and are well aware

By now that foreigners are present not to protect the public but to protect the Congo’s resources so they can be continually exploited this is a place where violence escalates despite International intervention and often in direct response to it so for South Africa’s announcement of an increased troop presence to be followed just days

Later with the deaths of South Africans on the military basis in the Eastern DRC is a bad Omen whichever way you slice it and according to Broad sections of the South African opposition it’s not an omen at all the criticism in question comes from the Democratic Alliance party South Africa’s main politic iCal

Opposition party according to them the ramaphosa government has not just placed its troops In Harm’s Way but has sent South Africa’s currently deployed soldiers into the Congo unprepared said the party in a statement immediately after the South African troops were killed referencing ramaphosa’s announcements of increased deployment

Just two days prior quoting two days ago we warned him against deploying more troops in the Eastern DRC for the simple reason that the sandf does not have the capacity to effectively pursue an anti-insurgency campaign against the M23 Rebel and neither does it have the Prime mission equipment to support the ground

Forces put in that simply according to the Democratic Alliance South Africa is not ready to run this counterinsurgency and the government’s support for its soldiers thus far has been inadequate even before the increased pressures and demands of a larger deployment Roser has since pushed back against the allegations stating that South Africa

Does quote have the military hardware to engage military operations such as those we are finding in eastern DRC but ramose’s claims haven’t fail to prevent the opposition from rallying against the planned troop deployments instead they’ve been met with Democratic Alliance demands to pull South African troops out of the Congo entirely while

We are going to Endeavor to take sides in the political elements of South Africa’s internal debate we do want to emphasize that if these South African troops are indeed not quite ready to conduct an effective counter Insurgency then that’s going to become a major problem very quickly as we’ve said South

Africa’s broader deployment comes as the Congo is Reckoning with the failure of the East African community’s intervention specifically because they refused to take part in offensive operations the idea that South Africa would be willing to strike out militarily in large scale offensives against the Congo’s Rebels is almost

Certainly going to be a prerequisite if they’re going to be deployed there although we can’t say for sure it seems highly unlikely that the congales government would have accepted news of South Africa’s new deployment without at least some expectation that South Africa will attempt to counter Insurgency meaning the rosis government’s claims of

Readiness will be put to the test sooner than later in regard to the soldiers killed on February the 15th their bodies have since been returned to South Africa a process that has only swelled the controversy of the last few days the soldiers themselves have been identified but the group responsible for their

Deaths even a week after the mortar strike well South Africa has been unable to ascertain whether the mortar had come from M23 or another militia or Rebel group nearby critical details about South Africa’s deployments like how many troops were already present in the con or when this new wave of 2900 is

Scheduled to arrive still missing opposition calls for restraint are only growing with leaders now raising additional concerns that South Africa’s troops are improperly trained that a lack of air power in the deployment will leave troops vulnerable and that the deaths of the two men killed in the mortar Strike last week were avoidable

Beyond South Africa the deteriorating situation in the DRC has involved rapidly intensifying violence in the country’s Eastern regions on the same day that the South African troops were killed another 12 people were killed and 16 kidnapped at a gold mine the attacker in that case wasn’t M23 but another

Group called codco a loose Alliance of ethnic lendu militias that frequently targets mineral and goldridge areas of the country M23 is believed to be stepping up its offensive too and setting its sites on the city of GMA a major population Center that it’s held in the past and the Congo’s Regional

Violence is taking place in very close proximity to South Africa’s troops the three troops injured on the 15th of February were taken to hospitals in GMA for urgency treatment with unrest growing across the Congo and a rapidly intensifying battle over the rich deposits of copper Cobalt Gold diamonds and other precious metals overflowing

Across the country more and more local militias are realizing that this is the moment to make some noise or otherwise to ready themselves for greater violence in the coming months all the while the Ordinary People of the Congo are caught in between before 2024 the number of displaced people in the Congo was

Generally estimated somewhere around 6.9 million but over the last 3 months that figure has likely crested to over 8 million and while those civilians and the 2 million plus who may soon be surrounded in the city of G stanza possibly have their lives saved by an effective foreign intervention we’ve

Also got to emphasize just who South Africa will be supporting here the latest South African deployment as well as the sadc’s broader mission in the Congo is generally supportive to the drc’s government in kinasa led by President Felix shik who recently cruised to a reelection in December

Marred by a whole range of major problems the DRC government is regularly accused of major human rights violations deep corruption and inaction on a starvation crisis facing much of the nation’s displaced population however shishak kad’s government is still seen as the best and most effective stabilizing Force for the DRC most of

The world seems to hope that shishak With a Little Help from foreign troops can do reasonably well in securing the Congo’s incredible natural resources which of course are in demand all around the world consistent access to those resources has long taken priority over addressing the countless abuses of the

Congales government and that fact is unlikely to change whether it’s the UN the sadc South Africa itself or anyone else helping to prop up that same government for the years to come and in our final story today we’re going to turn to the troubled waters of the Red

Sea where Yemen’s iran-backed uthy Rebel organization continues to launch attacks against Commercial and Military vessels alike their goal like that of the hezb organization in Lebanon is to increase pressure on Israel and his Western allies and to end Israel’s military campaign against tamas and Gaza but while a us-led western Coalition on the

High seas has been largely able to slow down the houthi assault the houthi notched a major achievement this week a direct hit on a cargo ship in what may have been the single most effective strike of their entire campaign against Global Maritime trade the target a Biz flagged british-owned cargo ship called

The Ruby Mar operated by a Lebanese company it belongs to southampton’s Golden Adventure shipping on board it was carrying roughly 22 metric tons of fertilizer that in the event of a missile strike could present an extreme risk to the survival of those on board the ship’s crew included 24 members

Hailing from Syria Egypt India and the Philippines on a voyage on route from Saudi Arabia to Belarus in the late hours of the evening on February the 18th the Ruby Mar was targeted by two houy launched anti- ship ballistic missiles both of the missiles would strike the ship with one scoring a

Direct hit that caus significant damage to the hull close to the engine room and the other hitting the ship’s dead deck after a distress call went out a merchant vessel and a western Coalition warship were able to respond to the Ruby Mar’s position evacuating all hands and

Getting them out of Harm’s Way they’ve since been repatriated by the Djibouti Port Authority but for the ruar and F the Western Coalition that is where the good news ends after the crew abandoned the ship rubar was observed to be taken on water a maritime advisory put out in

The following hours urged other vessels to keep their distance for fear that the ruar might sink before long for their part the houthi claimed on February the 19th that the ruar had already sunk although the video they showed was actually of a completely unrelated ship being scuttled in Brazil as of Wednesday

The 21st the BBC has released new images of the ruim mar not yet sunk but with its Stern hanging low in the water and seemingly on track to be swallowed by the wave sometime soon the ship’s owners have confirmed that while there are plans to tow the Ruby Mar to port in

Djibouti it may still sink before the intervention begins or on the way and that’s before we consider that the houthis May choose to attempt another strike on the ship while it’s vulnerable finishing the job and notching their first land to see destruction of a vessel since their attacks against Red

Sea shipping began and those aren’t the only successes the houthis have claimed in recent days alongside the strike on the Ruby M the houthis took credit for attacks on two us-owned cargo ships in the Gulf of Aiden the sea champion and the navis Fortuna according to Greece’s shipping Ministry providing information

To Reuters the sea Champion wasn’t hit directly but each of the two missiles launched at it exploded between 10 and 15 M away from in the ship causing minor damage the navis Fortuna was struck by a one-way attack drone although it reported only minor damage and no onboard injuries enabling it to continue

Its Journey even that wasn’t all alongside the news of the three ship strikes the houthis claims that their land-based air defense systems had shot down a US mq9 Reaper drone while the Drone was quote carrying out hostile missions against our country that is the houthis country of Yemen per us

Officials the reaper was shot down by a surfac toar missile While most likely being used to collect intelligence and Fin finally there’s one more piece of hthy news to cover not a successful strike or even an attempted one but a new capability added to their Arsenal in

A series of strikes against five hthy Targets in Yemen on Saturday the US claimed that it had struck and destroyed an unmanned underwater vessel or uuv and an unmanned surface vessel or USV basically it’s a submarine drone and a remotely piloted boat while the destruction of these two unmanned

Vessels is certainly a small win for the Western Coalition they confirm a potential Next Step by the houthis that Global analysts have feared might be coming for some time now once thought to be a rather Niche minimally relevant piece of tech Maritime drones have gained a devastating reputation during

The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine where Ukraine’s surface and subsurface Naval drones have wrought Havoc across Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in the Red Sea in the Gulf of Aiden they’ve been viewed as an increasingly obvious next step for the houthi to take and one that could

Well be within their reach if they chose to make an attempt to use them and even if the us could hypothetically confirm that the USV and uuv it destroyed were the only ones in the houthi Arsenal so far which by the way they can’t then it would still indicate that the houthis

Are moving to change their strategy and adopt what could be an even more Lethal Weapon if the houthis do manage to build or come into possession of a fleet of sea drones be they surface vessels or underwater ones the risks the houthis would pose to Maritime trade and Military targets would grow

Significantly while modern militaries are well equipped with thech technology needed to identify and intercept ballistic missiles and aerial drones they’re much less equipped to deal with Naval drones even the surface vessels typically have a very low profile in the water hard to spot on radar and are

Painted so that when they attack at night they’re practically invisible subsurface drones are even harder to deal with packed with explosives these sorts of drones are far better equipped than aerial drones or missiles to rip a hole through a ship’s Hull at or below the water line which in turn

Dramatically raises the risk that these ships could sink they’re easier to launch in swarm attacks or send out into Open Water to be allowed to drift even for days before they reactivated just in time to blow up a passing vessel all these tactics and techniques Iran’s revolutionary guard Corp are believed to

Be more than able to help the houes figure out broadly speaking the situation in the Red Sea is not looking good for the Western Coalition trying to Reign the houthis in and least of all for the United States you’ve led the charge on a retaliatory air campaign

That was supposed to knock out the houth capabilities on Tuesday the 20th us Central Command announced that the US had intercepted a total of 15 houthi missiles and drones in the prior 24 hours a clear indicator that the houthis have more than enough of both to keep

Launching them at high rates the direct hit on the Rev Mark is now a clear confirmation that direct and heavily damaging hits on cargo ships are possible even to the extent that they could be at risk of sinking that new precedent will likely lead to even more

Ships avoiding the Red Sea while the insurance cost for companies that do send their ships through a likely to grow even beyond the crippling costs they’ve already skyrocketed toward the help coming from the European Union is limited at best as evidenced by the eu’s most recent mission to help out a total

Of just four military vessels one each from France Italy Germany and Belgium all the while the huies continue to gain clout among their own community in Iran’s broader network of support and they continue to gain unofficial but very real recognition from the International Community as the force

That really runs Yemen the last few rounds of us strikes against the houthis while certainly not nothing are of the same scale that has thus far proven not to be enough to affect change on the ground and yet there appears to be no sign of either a more direct

Intervention against the houthi on the ground or an effort to draw down hostilities without further violence as the houthi strikes continued to rock the Red Sea the region appears to be settling into a new status quo one in which Rebel attacks on ships certainly aren’t preferred but they’re

Increasingly weathered as the price of doing business without significant in any direction from the US Europe India the Gulf States or anybody else in and around the Red Sea it’s the houthis who will continue to have the initiative pushing the envelope so that once ships really do start sinking a couple of

Intercepted missiles each day will simply begin to seem normal add new hthy capabilities to that equation and the table is set in the Red Sea for increasingly devastating attacks which now appear to be imminent unless the global West can take action and prove otherwise in the coming weeks and months

We’re going to return to more news on the houie strikes in the Red Sea as they happen and we’ll update you with news of the western intervention to stop them we’ll continue to report on the prospect of an Israeli war against Lebanon the fascinating involvement of Ukrainian special forces in Sudan civil conflict

And the status of South Africa’s controversial intervention in the DRC alongside all the other Wars and Flash points across the globe until then signing off and thanks for being Here