Faut Lines
Host
SYED SHABAHAT ALI
Guest
Taimur Khan
Dr Mahmud Khalid
Nameera Hameed
Producer
Shahrukh Sahi
This pdv F I am say shabahat Al you’re watching F lines in February 2024 the Russia’s Invasion on Ukraine will complete its 2 years on 24th of February 2022 Russia had started this war against Ukraine which was initially expected to be a short military scrimmage but it turned out to be one of
The major Wars that Europe has seen ever since World War II has been concluded this war has caused catastrophic Destruction for Ukraine and a lot of political and Military meltdown for Russia in today’s program we will see what has happened in this war what have been the major events during last two
Years and where does Russia and Ukraine stand as of today here is my take on Russia and Ukraine on 24th February 2022 Russia launched a surprise attack on Ukraine with air strike and ground troops from multiple fronts claiming to support the Russian backed separatist in donbass region by June 2022 Russian
Forces occupied about 20% of Ukrainian territory including parts of kav KV and adasa in July by 2022 Ukraine received military and humanitarian aid from NATO EU and United States as well as diplomatic support from the United Nations security Council which condemned Russia’s aggression and imposed sanctions in September
2022 a ceasefire was broken by France and Germany but is it was repeatedly violated by both of the sides leading to clashes and casualities in February 2023 Russia launched a new offensive with more troops and more weapons breaking the ceasefire and advancing further into Ukrainian territory targeting strategic infrastructure in civilian areas in
December 2023 the war entered a stalemate with neither sides able to gain significant ground or inflict decisive damage and with mounting human economic cost as well as environmental and humanitarian crisis it’s very pertinent to tell you here that meanwhile particularly in the last part of year 2023 the financial support for Ukraine
Had started drying out and the United States was a bit reluctant to fund this war any further but we surprisingly uh the President Joe Biden uh with the support of his party uh the US Senate has finally passed a $95 billion v f support for Israel and Ukraine and
Ukraine’s uh share out of is 64 billion dollar that is a staggering financial support more than United States would have done for any other nation in the recent past to talk about these very pertinent development in today’s program I have invited an expert his name is tamur Khan he is a geopolitical and
Foreign policy analyst who specializes in the area of Russia Lura welcome you to the show thank you for having me it is always a pleasure to be on your show tamur my first question is what are objectives of both the sides particularly in the Battle of a divka
Which is thought to be one of strategically very important areas as long as the Russia’s war on Ukraine is concerned uh the battle for ofka near thees sees Ukraine defending a strategic town that blocks Uh Russian access to thees uh City and its resources ofa’s fortifications and its Coke plant are
Prival with Ukraine using um entrenched defenses to maintain control um Russia aims to encircle uh the Ukrainian forces fighting in that town employing air strikes artillery and ground troops to capture the town uh which is viewed as a crucial uh point for controlling the denes and Lans regions and boosting
Morale um the intense combat reflects the town’s significance uh in the Border conflict uh over eastern Ukraine this battle is also becoming highly uh similar to the one that was fought uh for the town of bakut uh last year between the Ukrainian and the Russian Armed Forces this battle is also uh you
Know becoming very costly uh whether you talk about in terms of uh strategy or tactics or even in terms of uh human losses or Personnel losses uh for that matter both sides recognize the Strategic importance uh of ofka in the broader conflict or the donbas uh region uh with its uh control having
Implications for uh the territorial control uh military logistics and the psychological aspect of the conflict uh how important or significant is Ukraine’s hold on the writer Bank of uh Deni Pro River if I’m pronouncing it correctly and what can be the Strategic uh objectives behind uh this recent Bush
Ukraine’s breakthrough on the Eastern Bank of the Deno river is highly significant um making one of the few counter offensive uh successes for the Ukrainian army ever since the uh second counter offensive began last year the Special Forces uh faced challenges such as adapting their tactics after the
Destruction of a dam uh that happened last year and also dealing with the high waters that were a result of U of that Dam’s breakage uh securing a Crossing required not just crossing the river itself but also establishing a bridge head with sufficient uh backup to hold
That uh Bridge head as well because the Russian forces continuously uh tried to regain control of uh that bridge head as well the operation involved high-risk missions um including night operations and coordination uh with surrendered Russian troops uh for intelligence um despite these efforts Ukrainian forces face challenges like freezing
Temperatures and being under equipped uh and uh under resourced compared to the Russian forces uh that are operating nearby making holding and advancing extremely difficult for the Ukrainian Armed Forces recently another Uh Russian naval ship has been sunk uh by the Ukrainian uh military uh while they
Are claiming that they have hit it with drones which has been um contested by the Russian side as well but what can be the advantage of or how how well footed do you think Russia’s Navy is at the moment after this very recent incident uh well you see the Ukrainian uh sea
Drones uh sinking of the Russian uh warship significantly shifts uh the naval power dynamics in the Black Sea uh it also highlights Ukraine’s uh extended reach and capability to directly challenge the Russian naval strength uh in that region as well the attack near the nov Russia Port which severely
Damaged the Russian uh warship showcases an increase in um the Ukrainian Naval drone Effectiveness and operational range as well uh this is part of a series of Ukrainian strikes on Russian naval assets exemplified by the notable sinking uh of the tarantul class missile Corvette uh ianov if I remember
Correctly uh furthermore these attacks or these actions also underscore Ukraine’s enhanced Naval strategy and POS a significant challenge uh to Russia’s Naval dominance in the Black Sea as I mentioned earlier um the costeffective use of uh sea drones allows Ukraine to Target Russia’s uh Superior Naval forces effectively
Moreover it also uh has resulted in the shifting uh of uh the Region’s uh control balance as well uh which has also led to Russia to adjust uh its Black Sea fleet’s positioning uh moving from seosto to novarc and um considering further relocations to mitigate the Ukrainian threats um uh in addition I’ll
Also like to say that these developments have complex implications for conflict resolution as well uh while Ukraine’s Naval successes might deter Russian aggression and open avenues for diplomatic dialogue uh but they also risk escalating tensions and complicating peace efforts um Ukraine’s strategic deployment of uh Naval drones
Marks a shift in Modern Warfare Dynamics and uh Power in the region uh which is also necessitating careful navigation by both parties in future negotiations Russia has recently conducted rocket attacks on kive and levive uh to different cities of Ukraine how important or how significant are these developments well
Uh you see Russia’s missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities like Kev and leiv uh Mark a major escalation uh causing civilian casualties and widespread damage uh in Kev uh missile debris and destroyed part of the residential highrise uh underscoring the severe impact on civilians uh Ukraine
Has red also ried its uh Services uh to address the Fallout uh showing strong resolve against uh these Russian attacks the Ukrainian military although has successfully intercepted many attacks um highlighting efforts to strengthen air defenses uh however the Persistence of these assaults POS uh um pose uh significant challenges to uh
Safeguarding Urban centers and inhabitants of those uh Urban centers as well in response president zalinski has pursued Global discussions uh including talks on Ukraine’s future with the World Bank leader uh and sought International aid for defense and rebuilding um I think that this approach aims for strategic offensive uh moves and a
Comprehensive recovery plan considering the use of Frozen Russian assets for reconstruction and holding Russia responsible for such actions um and also I also like to mention that amid ongoing conflict Ukraine’s resilience and determination to secure both defensive support and reconstruction Aid uh reflects a proactive engagement with the International Community which can also
Uh create problems for uh the Russian foreign policy orientation and ures in the future as well there are certainly many humanitarian costs associated with every of War so certainly there is a human cost of this Ukraine’s conflict as well U how do you see this civilian cost of this conflict which is gaining
Further momentum uh despite the fact that the war has completed its first two years well uh you see the recent reports highlight that civilians uh in uh Ukraine’s uh conflict zones face severe challenges such as displacement access to Essentials healthc care trrain educational disruptions and uh psychological traumas uh to say the
Least um millions are displaced internally and abroad causing a housing and safety crisis uh for those civilians and then destroyed infrastructure hampers uh access to food water and medical supplies and other basic utilities um the conflict has also overwhelmed Healthcare systems with damage damage facilities and uh dwindling supplies um the damage schools
And the displacement of children threaten future education and development of the Ukrainian uh public uh and uh like I mentioned earlier the psychological trauma the widespread violence has had a deep mental impact on the population as well um furthermore the international efforts led by organizations like NATO and the un uh
They do aim to provide relief through humanitarian Aid health care and educational support am Miss challenges uh posed by the conflict’s unpredictability logistical hurdles and uh security concerns but I think that uh still more needs to be done uh although uh there are several countries uh whose own resources are extremely
Strained especially inside of Europe because of the ongoing Russia Ukraine conflict but still uh it is the need of the hour that more needs to be done and more resources need to be pulled by those countries in order to help uh the Ukrainian public uh more holistically
And comprehensively and in the end I would like to add that the need for ongoing Global support is critical to meet the escalating humanitarian uh demands and to seek a lasting solution uh to the conflict which is uh imperative uh at the moment with multiple other Global conflicts
Sprouting uh in different parts of the globe and how do you assess the role of NATO and other International major actors uh that have been formally engaged in this war well um as far as uh NATO’s role uh is concerned I think that NATO has played a significant and varied
Role in supporting Ukraine uh during its conflict with Russia um offering everything from political to mil milary support and Aid uh since the conflict escalated uh in 2014 and uh uh also uh after the special military operation as the Russians call it uh in February of
2022 U two years ago um The Alliance has stead fastly backed Ukraine sovereignty and uh security um supporting its self-defense rights and Euro Atlantic integration Ambitions as well uh moreover the public support in Ukraine uh for joining NATO uh has surged significant ific anly particularly in response to uh the Russian aggression u
A goal which is now enshrined in the Ukrainian Constitution which I might add uh however Ukraine’s path to Nato uh membership faces uh daunting hurdles including the need for reforms and Russia’s uh oppression and here I’ll also like to add that uh according to uh the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty uh Charter of
NATO uh any country which has a frozen conflict or a pending territorial dispute when any with any other country uh can also uh uh not join uh NATO organization and since Russia has uh almost turned uh the current conflict into a frozen conflict I think uh this further exacerbates uh Ukraine’s uh
Problems uh uh for joining NATO for the foreseeable future um moreover I’ll also like to add that um in response to the conflict uh NATO allies have increased support uh to address Ukraine’s immediate uh needs including military assistance and help to counter economic and infrastructural impacts uh of the
War uh this coordinated uh effort aims to alleviate the humanitarian situation for civilians and enhance Ukraine’s defense mechanisms as well uh and uh in the end I would like to say that the situation continues to remain fluid uh with challenges in providing adequate And Timely support uh however balancing
Immediate aid with long-term security and re uh long-term security and reconstruction alongside continuous dial between Ukraine NATO and the International Community is key to addressing the current needs and achieving Regional stability and security and a peaceful resolution to the conflict uh in the long term thank
You very much tamur for being guest in our show thank you for having me ladies and gentlemen we’ll take a break and we’ll join you back with second segment of the program stay with Us welcome back ladies and gentlemen as we had also discussed in the previous program Pakistan general election for 2024 have been concluded the same parliamentary parties are back in the parliament with a different equation of representation and apparently it seems that they are going to form a joint
Coalition while the Coalition of these parties is is still uh being discussed there is an elephant in the room and that is the financial situation the nominated prime minister’s candidate from pmln the political party that has maximum representation in the upcoming National assembly’s session uh is M Muhammad Shahbaz Sharie who has
Hinted during a television interview that Pakistan will have to immediately enroll into a new IMF program worth at least $6 billion US now that reminds us of the economic challenges that the new government will have to face in the first year of uh its Inception to talk about Pakistan’s economic situation at
Large we have invited today an economist who uh is quite expert of uh talking about macroeconomics and frequently appears in our show his name is Dr mmud Khaled who is an economist and works for Pakistan Institute of developing economics Dr Mahmud Khaled I welcome you to the show thank you very much Shabbat
For having me on the program it’s always a pleasure Dr first of all give us a background of our relationship with IMF so to my understanding we are about to conclude one of their programs and the conditionalities that had been extended by IMF have so far been fully met by the
Government of Pakistan uh helped me to understand the situation between Pakistan and IMF at the moment now this is a very important question um not just for the caretaker government which is uh going to wrap up rather it is more important for the upcoming government uh
Because uh the IMF has been uh seen as a a kind of a lender of Last Resort for our balance of payment crisis uh but that doesn’t come without a cost and they have identified a set of uh recommendations which they call as conditionalities to be met earlier it
Was post program but now it also comes as a pre condition uh we were in a standby Arrangement uh for the uh last year for about $3 billion in which in November the last rche of 700 million was also released uh in which they have notified that certain commitments which
Were made were fulfilled uh now within that the um uh kind of uh portfolio which they have uh provided uh is mostly in terms of uh managing the fiscal side uh especially in terms of the circular debts which has been created in the energy sector and that requires the
Government actually to pass on uh the higher energy cost to the consumers besides that the IMF has also required us to uh improve the Foreign Exchange Market by making the foreign exchange uh totally based on the market forces and along with that they have asked for another set of recommendations on the
Sides of these uh uh state-owned Enterprises which needs to be actually uh privatized now having said that uh the IMF has been um happy in terms of how the government has been uh accepting their conditionalities towards the Improvement of the system but it is coming with a cost because uh uh uh the
Strict monetary policy regime to counter the inflation has resulted into uh a policy rate of close to 22% and that has actually led to U fiscal crisis in terms of debt servicing whereas now as of the last quarter around 95% of our tax revenues has to be paid to uh cover
For our debt servicing cost so these sort of problems are also there but definitely the uh government is looking forward uh to go back again to the IMF program and we have also noticed that before the new government steps in uh Pakistan has jacked up the prices of
Petroleum gas uh of petroleum and and liquid gas uh so do you think it is somehow associated with the conditions that we have committed with IMF and what is going to be the economic impact of this price uh escalation yes indeed uh now the problem with such types of
Energy tariff hikes is that it is not just going to impact the uh cost of production for the businesses but also to the Ordinary People in terms of increasing the cost of their living in the form of energy use uh for their cooking and other purposes now what
Happens is that uh when you are passing on uh these tariff hikes uh the reason is that there is a huge circular debt at the back uh which the government now cannot fund from uh Bor ing uh because already the size is enormous but besides that since the private sector’s credit
Availability from the bank also reduces because now the government is borrowing for that purpose now the problem which we see from outside is that it’s not just about passing the tariffs to recover the cost the problem actually lies in the governance structure and this is what P has also been working in
Terms of suggesting that there are certain governance related changes which needs to happen both for the uh gas sector as well as for the uh electricity sector and until unless you do that still the same kinds of higher tariffs needed to be passed on to the consumers and this is something which is
Unsustainable Dr you had discussed in one of our previous shows that Pakistan owes about $24 billion doar in terms of external debts for which needs to be paid back in the grown Financial year uh so what is the preparation or what options does the upcoming government
Have in terms of paying back these uh external loans yes and this is something which actually is a chronic problem for the Pakistan’s economy that we are not uh uh managing to secure enough foreign exchange reserves to pay out our liabilities now for a country like Pakistan which has Uh current account
Deficit that means they have to fund their expense for Commodities and input purchase from the rest of the world by either remittances or by taking loans and this is what we have been doing in the past but uh owing to costly borrowing uh in the recent past now we
Have to actually serve their debt and as you have rightly mentioned that this year uh the next year the by the June 30th we have to actually honor a payment of about $24 billion and currently the position is very Bleak in terms of our resource or the reserve position uh we
Don’t have even a cover for 3 months uh import uh in in the form of reserves with uh the state bank and the uh domestic banking sector it is close to about U uh 13 odd billion dollars in which 8 billion do are with the central
Bank and uh with the banking sector uh it’s close to $5 billion now how is it going to be managed that is what uh is most uh prominent or million dollar question for the upcoming government and I’m sure they’re going to try to go to the IMF seeking um another program loan
Because what happens is that when you are taking a program loan uh it kind of increases your credibility towards the other creditors which can facilitate you in terms of providing for the necessary loans but again this is going to be a short-term solution until unless you see it from a long-term perspective where
The uh things needs to improve especially the current account deficits uh this problem is going to emerge again and again another $6 billion uh of loan is expected to be initiated by the government of Pakistan from IMF uh what do you think can be the political cost
Of such a loan because IMF always comes up with conditions that have a huge political cost now there are always political costs for the programs of IM whether it’s Pakistan or any other country because it comes with certain preconditions and it also require certain structural reforms uh unfortunately the uh targeting of the
Reforms is merely to provide a kind of an emergency relief for example they’re going to uh focus on the trade deficit they’re going to uh sorry not the trade deficit the budget deficits they’re also going to try to plug in uh some kinds of uh tariff uh adjustments and others but
What the m to actually uh propose is something which is needed by the economy at that time like for example in case of Pakistan the projection is that the real economic growth is going to be close to 1.5 to 2% uh but uh does it match even our population growth requirement or
Does it actually provide for enough jobs in the economy to happen this is a very uh I think important question to address while we are looking for the IMF program so when we are addressing and this is something which we cannot avoid but while going to the IMF program we should
Do our homework in terms of providing plausible solutions for these crisis and there are alternatives which can be fixed and uh number one is basically uh providing some relief in the form of governance reforms in which the Civil uh bureaucracy itself is an issue because they actually manage all the things uh
Then the governance uh problems which we have earlier mentioned in the form of energy and uh sector then we have also uh identified that there are problems in terms of how the government is actually borrowing uh P has many of times recommended that there should be a a single debt office including the
National savings and the uh Treasury Department to seek for loans so there are plenty of other options which can also be worked out while we are going to the IMF in terms of seeking another uh program loan Dr you had once spoken in one of my programs about the psdp
Projects and the hanging liabilities that it has for the government help us to understand why does it become more difficult for the upcoming government to announce more development projects under psdp program well you are very rightly identified that the public Asset Management in Pakistan is very poor especially the public sector development
Program the projects identification the complete project cycle actually uh from right from the project identification up till its completion it’s not actually embedded in a kind of a strategy towards economic growth or actually delivering what it ought to so the problem right now is uh very significant you have
Rightly identified the throw forward of the public sector development program is close to uh 9 trillion rupees and by looking at the uh the public sector development program overall budget uh almost 15 to 20 years are needed just to complete the existing projects uh what to talk about the new projects which
Also come in we have got elaborate Frameworks we have got a public financial management uh said act which actually governs the new uh Paradigm for the public sector development program but unfortunately the changes which are due has not taken place uh we have been recommending that the uh public Asset
Management from the public uh not just from the psdp but overall needs to be done in a manner where it is linked with the results and it is also uh providing some kind of uh economic growth uh uh framework rather than simply eating away the public resources and not delivering
What it ought to thank you very much Dr Mahmud Khaled for being guest in our show thank you very much sabad for having me on the show ladies and gentlemen we’ll take a break and we’ll join you back with last segment of the program stay with Us welcome back ladies and gentlemen to the last segment of the show and in this segment we are going to talk about one of the most pertinent problems that every corner of planet Earth is facing this is perhaps the only issue which does not allow any human on planet Earth
To be a way of its impact and that is the issue of climate change climate change something that we have been frequently talking about in our show is affecting different areas of planet Earth uh starting from from South America to the desert of Africa to the V Forest stretches of Australian continent
To the wildest strateg strates of Amazon as well while this has been a global issue we have seen very little action by the governments as well as a very little changes in our lifestyles as individuals here is what my take is on the issues of envirment and climate change a series of
Oil fire began in Chile on 30th January 2024 affecting several regions and causing a state of emergency the fire were driven by Heatwave drought and suspected Arsen and burned more than 430,000 hectares of land at least 26 people died and more than 2,000 were injured by the fire and over 100 1,500
Homes were destroyed uh meanwhile Africa is seeing one of its worst droughts the Horn of Africa is facing uh this drought situation in which is one of the recent environmental challenges worsen by conflict covid-19 and Rising food prices around 23 million people are facing acute hunger and 7.5 million children
Are acutely malnourished in Somalia ethopia and Kenya the drought has led to large scale displacement outbreaks of diseases and loss of livestock and crops meanwhile Greenland’s ice sheet is melting faster than expected due to climate change and other factors contributing to Global sea level rise Greenland is currently losing 234
Billion tons of ice every year which is equalent to filling 6,324 empire state buildings every year the ice sheet is sensitive to changes in temperature and percipitation and has experienced more frequent and intense surface melting in recent years let me also remind you that the northeastern US
Coast was hit by a powerful snow storm in December 2023 breaking records in Massachusetts Pennsylvania and New York the storm caused travel chaos power outage school closures and 100 of flight cancer insation and delays the storm also brought coastal flooding and icy condition leading to car accident and
Fatalities ladies and gentlemen as we have discussed this problem covering various parts of Earth let’s invite an expert Miss namir Hamid who is joining me from London on Skype and ask her quickly what is her take on these environmental challenges nir I welcome you to the show thank you for having me
Nir what caus the forest fire in Chile and this must be a very concerning development for you as an expert of environment South America is facing unprecedented high temperatures this January was the hottest on record globally and many countries are still trying to deal with the devastating wildfires that have torn across the
Continent Chile has been the most affected country with uh over 100 people dying in fires the country saw casualties last year as well from the summer wildfires so these recent forest fires in Chile and Argentina have highlighted the need for better and more ambitious environmental laws as um the climate
Crisis worsens our discussions on this topic cannot just be focused on the science of climate change and carbon emissions we need to simultaneously talk about climate Finance climate Justice and the social impacts of climate change on climate Finance we need to see the hundred billion per year from High
Income countries to low-income countries that are most affected by the crisis uh additionally we need to also see National plans to mitigate uh carbon emissions as we adapt to these new realities and horrors of climate change this requires International collaboration across sectors um and the
Need for a just transition all of what I said uh depends on public engagement uh the more the public and the citizens are engaged the better the policies will come out internationally from each of the countries we saw um that the loss and damage fund was one due to immense
Pressure from uh activists and campaigners and young citizens from around the world so climate Justice and the clean energy transition is simply not possible without bringing people from every um community and uh every segment of society onto the journey uh that we need for um a net zero and low
Carbon future and how does the eye sheet of Greenland concerned you because we are seeing Greenland losing most of its eyes in the recent years I mean the Meltdown that it has had in the previous years is far lesser than the recent mild Downs that we have seen how concerned
Are you on this development as an expert amok is a marine conveyor belt that carries heat carbon and nutrients from the tropics towards the Arctic Circle uh where it cools and sinks into the deeper ocean so this circulation helps to distribute energy around the earth and balance off uh the impact of global
Heating that is caused by human activities what we’re seeing now is that the circulation of the Atlantic Ocean is heading towards a Tipping Point which would be catastrophic for the climate system and Humanity we don’t yet know how soon this would happen but we know that sci doing this research are shocked
At the forecasted speed of collapse once the point is reached um as the glaas and Greenland and Arctic ice sheets are melting faster than expected the system is being uh severely impacted as it Pour more and more fresh water into the sea so we know that the OK has declined 15%
Since 1950 and is currently in its weakest state in more than 1,000 years or more what do we Lear learn from this we learn that we need ambitious climate policies immediately uh decision makers tend to shy away from strong climate action saying that their citizens may not support ambitious policies and
Climate financing our research from climate Outreach shows that there are in fact very high levels of support for government leaders to take urgent uh climate action um public is increasingly concerned about climate Justice and policy makers are just not keeping up with it concern on action is growing in every
Corner of the globe the longer we leave urgent and ambitious responses the more dire the situation become thank you well muchir for being guest in our show thank you for having me ladies and gentlemen the environmental issues and the climate change or something that is going to AFF
Every citizen of this world every inhabitant of this world we need to make sure that our actions really uh respond to the calamities otherwise our coming Generations will have to live in a world which will not have a tolerable Planet we’ll join you next week with another program and until then Allah
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