Cyclone Belal Speed & Track Update | Meteo Mauritius Today – Jan 10, 2024
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Credit – Windy, zoom earth, tropical tidbits,
Hello welcome to cyclonic activities officials scattered clouds lies and very soon a low pressure area is expected to form in southwest Indian Ocean away at north east of morius around January 12th as per track and category is concerned as per GFS model this low pressure system is expected to move
Southwestwards Direction and become a depression by January 13th over southwest Indian Ocean sub sequently within the next 24 hours a rapid intensification could upgrade the system from moderate to severe tropical storm bellal around January 14th with a wind speed ranging from 70 to 100 kmph in the remaining forecast period the system
Could intensify further into a tropical Cyclone category as it moves away towards eastwards around January 18th as per landfall is concerned the GF F and ecmu model both are suggesting this tropical system making landfall over morus region ether as a moderate tropical storm or severe tropical storm
Bell all around 15 to January 16th thus in short this forecast is based on a longrange GFS model forecast and slight changes in category and track is expected due to various environmental conditions hence we are looking forward towards the low pressure area system formation around January 12th
Over the southwest Indian Ocean do share in the comment section about your opinion whether tropical Cyclone bellal will form or not don’t forget to like share comment and subscribe to us for more tropical updates thanks for watching have a good
3 Comments
What would be the max wind speed approximately when the cyclone hits Mauritius
150km
IL N'Y A ABSOLUMENT RIEN ! La situation est la suivante :
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/
091800Z-101800ZJAN2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.9S 78.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6S 78.8E, APPROXIMATELY 383 NM EAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERIES. THE CIRCULATION IS
PASSING OVER VERY WARM WATER (29-30C) BUT CURRENTLY LIES IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. INVEST 96S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON AN
EQUATORWARD TRACK INTO A ZONE OF HIGHER SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.