Property Crash UK: THIS Is What Will Happen To UK House Prices In 2024…

With geo-political turmoil and poor job data on one side…

And a renewed optimism with the economy, housing market activity and interest rates on the other…

How is 2024 hoing to pan out for the UK Housing Market?

Let’s discuss.
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So I’ve literally just run down from the uh from the dining room so regardless of the fact that the doomsayers and the naysayers are still calling for huge property crashes and there is geopolitical unrest in the Middle East which we’ll talk about later the reality is confidence appears High both in the

Future and the prospects of the UK property market and also the UK economy now I want dive into that on this live stream and I want to talk about are these is this optimism unfounded are we sleepwalking into a recession that is going to take down the property Market

Or have we actually weathered the worst of it and we are bottoming out okay so that is what we’re going to look at in this evening’s live stream so um a very good evening to everybody uh I can um apologize profusely for not being live

For the last week and a half my Di has been absolutely manic um I’ve been launching a new a new product new program called the property unicorn club which I’ll talk to you about later I’ve also been up in Chester getting my um my current project up and running to hit

The shortterm market as well as spending some time with my kids and um dealing with various other business aspects over the week last week and a half so I just haven’t had time to go live so I want to do a sweep up of what we’ve missed over

The last week week and a half um to see where we are as we go into the interest rate decision which I believe is uh tomorrow the next MPC meeting so we are live so if you can see me and hear me please give me a thumbs up up and please

Type something in the comments I can see Stuart and T Rhythm are are on it’s a pleasure to be back um and as always if you are new to the channel this is the first time you’re watching one of these uh one of these live streams my aim on

These live streams is to go through the actual data so we can see what’s going on and understand what’s going on underneath the headlines of the mainstream media and also a lot of the main not the mainstream a lot of the headlines that are on the YouTube sphere

With the polarized views that we often see so my aim is to bring reality to bring object itivity to the actual data so we can make better decisions as investors and home buyers and business owners over the coming months and years so let’s crack onto it or on with it

Even okay first thing to talk about um is we have seen some positives over the last week come out in uh in the data so I want to go through the positives that we’ve seen look at the data that backs it up and then look at the counterargument to this uh the negatives

And at the data that backs that up so we can get an idea about what the direction of travel actually is right now so let’s start with with swap rates um actually if we look at the Swap rates and I’m just going to get them up right here

Which I should have um swap rates have actually come up a little bit so fiveyear uh oh sorry that was the wrong button 5ye Sonia swap we can see is at 3.743% on December is 3.34 7 so we’re seeing the swap rates actually come up a little bit this means the market is

Maybe backtracking slightly based on what they cons what they were looking at in December which was a broad consensus of you know four quarter point percentage Falls in 2024 in the interest rates to take us probably 1% down to where we are now by the time we get to

The end of this year I would suggest the swap rates are implying that it doesn’t think it’s going to be quite so aggressive but we are still Fair you know low compared to where we were now how does this play out um into mortgages because this is one of the big ones and

What we are seeing is we’re seeing a repeat or a continued drop in New um mortgages for for home buyers so if we look at this we can see you know down the end here in January we’ve seen some quite rapid falls off fall off in these graphs um

This particular one stands out for me which is 85% loan to value 2-year fixed rate uh which has come down from 5.4 to to um 4.97 so half a percent um you know over over the last few weeks these are averages out on the market now what this

Is doing with swap rates kind of lower as they are with average mortgage rates coming down is is increasing the affordability okay so it means um when people are coming off the fix rate debt they’re not having to jack up um as much as possible and we talk about so many

Times that the things that are going to cause a fullon market meltdown in the UK property Market is number one affordability number two negative equity and number three unemployment so looking at the UN the affordability we’re going to look at a couple of other things and

Then I’m going to get to the um uh the negative equity and the unemployment um in a little bit so we’re seeing the swap rate still sub4 okay so 3.5 to 3.7% I’m also seeing a lot more analytics or analysts giving now an upgraded growth outlook for the

UK economy compared to what they were doing in November as well as that for forecast of inflation coming down much more quickly than it was a few months ago so the an is going right outlook for UK GDP is looking more Rosy looks like um you know we might be able to return

To some sort of growth in 2024 rather than recession so whether we go technical recession right now we still waiting for December’s data to come out see if we go into a technical recession um but even if we do go into a technical recession it doesn’t necessarily mean

It’s falling off a cliff at the moment okay and low inflation coming down is easing things so let’s also talk about that affability uh Matrix so with affordability we are seeing again or now seeing a realterm wage increases due to the inflation dropping off quickly and

Even though the and I haven’t got the data up because we looked at it last time um uh even though the peak it looks like we’ve seen the peak of wage increases it’s still decently above inflation right now so that’s improving people’s affordability utility prices despite the you know geopolitical issues

We’ll talk about in a bit are actually looking fairly resilient so if we go over back into into the data set let’s start with in fact let’s start with with with crude so with the events in the Middle East at the moment there was a narrative that

We’re going to see spike in crude um which of course is then going to filter into the supply chain which of course is then going to impact on inflation and that’s going to you know create issues with interest rate calls if we zoom out look at the last uh five years chart we

Can see we have had a tick up since December but it’s nothing like what a lot of people were calling for okay so um 2022 we had the big spike we then had a tick up in the summer of last year 2023 into September which peaked at

About sort of 90 I think we’re just low 90s a barrel and then we’ve been dropping off back down into the sort of mid 70s and yes we have crept up a little bit we’re still only just above 80 so we’re not seeing you know that um

That supply of crude be choked and therefore the price go up what I think is more interesting is when we look at the cost of natural gas so again utilities as we all know uh the height of the uh the inflation we’re seeing a massive spike in um in

Utilities gas electricity um up at you know what’s this 650 um you know per THM came down uh and in sort of mid 2023 again we’re dropping down here to you know what’s that sort of mid-50s we were starting to see a general creep up again

Okay into the into the end of the Autumn early winter of 2023 but it’s come down it’s come down it’s looking stable so what does this mean what can we what can we take from this when we’re looking to the energy price cap we’re already forecast to see in

Q3 um the energy price cap come down considerably I can’t remember the exact figures uh where we are I think we’re about 1,900 um a year on the energy price cap forecast come down to about 1,600 that’s a fairly big percentage drop and then we look at where the

Wholesale gas is right now it looks like that can be sustained rather than temporary dip before it comes back in when we look at affordability CPI and that basket of goods as we talk about over and over and over again such a poor reflection of the actual buying power or purchasing power

Or affordability of somebody um you know based on what they’re actually spending their money on it’s not a reflective basket of goods the reality is most people um are spending most of their money on food and shelter shelter of course includes things like utility so housing Housing Services and going to

Include utilities so rent mortgage utilities and then your food right so utilities are a big part of that of course it’s feeds into the whole supply chain so they’re not looking um like they are uh going up so they’re looking stably down um and then we also look at the cut-in National Insurance

Contributions that comes in in April so this is going to give an additional um sort of boost to when we look at and we we looked at the the charts of who benefits from this and actually I was quite surprised because I think there’s a big Nar narrative out there that for

The next well so we got we got two things at play we have number one the National Insurance cut which comes in in April we also have the stealth taxes in terms of income tax frees over the next five years so of course with income tax levels freezing as people’s salaries go

Up with wage growth more people are going to go into um basic and higher and then additional so there’s going to be a big tax it’s called fiscal drag basically a lot more tax collected um by keeping the income tax levels level however when you look at this

Level sorry this year 24 into 25 the net effect is that the majority of people will benefit from the drop in National Insurance compared to the fiscal drag effect of their income tax going up and um if I had time and again sorry I’ve been I’ve been coaching my um

Property cash flow accelerator clients for four hours this afternoon so I’ve just managed to get a bit of food and come back and do this when you look at that graph and I’ll dig it out and we’ll look at it next time there’s only a very small percentage of people that are

Going to be negatively um negatively advantaged are going to be disadvantaged by it in the in the next financial year so actually this is also improving um affordability so when we look at that those factors that hit UK house prices affordability negative equity um and unemployment actually that affordability objectively is improving

For people when you look at it on a macro scale look I’m aware that there going to be many different different demographics many subsections of some people will be disadvantaged some people be way more advantaged okay when you look at Sabers for example they’re going to be more advantaged you see um lower

Inome families with with variable mortgages are clearly going to be disproportionately disadvantaged but macro wise which is what we have to do we look at the market right it is almost impossible to suggest that affordability is not improving right now compared to where we were last year so these are the

Cases these are the factors that could go into I don’t know whether soft Landing is the word anymore I think we’ve been in a soft Landing the whole time with the property market we’ve never had that capitulation these are things that going to prop up the market

I’m not necessarily going to talk about go back into growth right away but prop up the market over the next three to six months so if those are the positives and I’d love to know your thoughts on that by the way um and I’ll go through questions at the end as I’ve gone

Through go gone through all the slides if those are the positives that are propping the market up what are what’s the reverse of that what are the negatives that are potentially going to take us down so the first thing to talk about is swap rates cannot go down

Forever and mortgage rates cannot go go down forever if we go back to the swap rates we can actually see that potentially you know they they they’ve pee or peaked they’ve troughed already end of December 3.34 um they cannot continue going down until Bank of intra Bank of England

Starts to show the direction it’s going to take interest rates okay remember a swap rate is effectively a hedge and it’s a it’s a bet if you like about what the average interest rate will be in that time period so over the next 5 years it’s you know it’s saying the

Average interest rate is going to be 3.743% that’s what the market is saying right now in December it was lower than that um which means that the market thinks it’s not going to go down as low over the next five years the average is

Going to be higher than it was sort of a month ago okay so they can’t go on forever and these mortgage rate so forget about the swap rates forget about Bank of England base rate sorry I’m not actually showing you the right um the right thing here um the mortgage rates

We can see we’ve been in steady decline since summer 23 in terms of mortgage rates we have seen a capitulation I would say since beginning of January with a lot of lenders aggressively dropping interest rates this cannot continue so this will not continue in a linear straight line and don’t forget a

Lot of these mortgage products that are having interest rates reduced are probably seeing fees go up or only available for a very small amount of of customers who qualify for these particular ones okay so this cannot go on forever so it’s not like we’re going to continue to see that affordability

Improve for people okay it will bottom at some point and then that takes me to the next thing is the gap the thing I’ve been talking about since I started this channel in March and the Gap is the amount of people who um are coming off their fixed rate mortgages versus the

Interest rates they’re going on to so if you think about um and now actually the Gap so let me try and illustrate this with with my hands if we’ve got this amount of people people um or sorry this amount of people coming off fix rate so

This amount of people on fix rate this line is the amount that people are going on to on their variable rate that Gap was getting bigger and bigger so less people on cheap fix rate more people jumping up onto onto higher um you know variable rates as they as they have to

Or or could be fixed as they refix that Gap was getting bigger and bigger and bigger we are still seeing these people um and it’s still I think it’s 1.6 million roughly in 2024 people having to refinance coming off the cheap fixed rate admittedly what they’re going on to

Is less than it was you know sort of six months ago but we’re still seeing a lot of people have affordability impacted by coming off cheap fixed rate debt so that will continue to impact probably the most vulnerable um sub sector of demographic um in the housing market

Which are probably you know again young families not a lot of disposable income are going to be disproportionately skewed by morgage um mortgage payments going up so that’s the Gap the next thing we’ve got to look at is April we have a load of brexit costs filter into

The system and what I mean by brexit costs is additional costs for imports exports various treaties I’ve not looked too much into it but I know in April we have a raft of things come into place which is going to make it more expensive to import various things into the UK

Because of brexit so that will probably feed into the supply chain um it’s also um worth mentioning because we’ve done it on the plus side but it’s also a negative is that National Insurance contribution um when that when that dips will that create a secondary inflationary effect by giving more

Purchasing power to people and if um effectively sorry not not not the National Insurance so the National Insurance will potentially put more purchasing power in people’s hands but the other thing is the minimum wage national minimum wage going up by for some demographics almost 20% Which is a

Significant boost up in their income how much will that Ripple through the food chain if you like so how much will that impact everybody else as we get into April will there be a lot of people looking for more pay Rises as that gets reflected in their companies and will

That create a secondary inflationary effect that’s something we wait to see actually the logic says yes the research I’ve done implies on a you know a theoretical level actually it’ll have more burden on employers and ends up increasing unemployment because rather than giving everybody um additional additional pay Rises uh employers have

To start saving money by cutting headcount rather than just giving everybody pay Rises especially as we go into you know um tightening more tightening of the economy so that’s something to bear in mind also let’s not forget we are still not tamed inflation we’re not at 2%

We’re not sub 2% right we’re still almost double Target and we’re going into the period now where is it going to stick we always talked about January February March this year are we going to see that stickiness in the inflation and what will that do to impact um the

Decisions that the bank are going to be making as we as we talk about the interest rate potential interest rate cuts so number five we want to talk about the negatives is the geopolitical issues that we are seeing right now okay so I think it’s fair to say that what is

Going on in the Middle East is um escalating to some extent uh there’s certainly a lot more um activity going on the um you know the attacks that happened against um the Americans uh yesterday has clearly escalated things I can imagine being ex-military myself there is no appetite for any sort sort

Of escalation with Iran that is definitely not a theater that I would suggest most people want to be going into full frontal um however we do not know how that could that Tinder Box could light and I would suggest that when we look at all these factors this

Um and you know the other geopolitical issues going on don’t forget Russia Ukraine I know it’s kind of taken a sideline right now um the these are the issues which for me are the disproportionate downside risk which are things that could trigger things going the wrong direction so right now

Escalation is going up don’t forget we still have all the shipping or significant amount of shipping diverting around um you know around base of Africa which is going to add on more cost to a lot of goods we might see a load of goods disappear and is that going to hit

Inflation figures as well and therefore feed into um feed into MPC decisions and then finally um on a on on a UK National basis unemployment so it’s interesting I’m just going to go over to I googled this this morning um and I just Googled job losses and these are the headlines

That come up uh John Lewis planning major job Cuts over five years um job cuts and consolidation Dent aln net Ambitions uh Newton job losses were felt far and wide um steel workers in Port Talbert huge job losses games industry losing people Google bosses warn staff to expect further job cuts and we

Obviously you know there are some significant if employers talking about Job cuts and if you sort of follow those breadcrumbs at the moment these things will not be hitting the employment data but when we read between the lines you’re seeing a lot of employeers talk about it is this indicative of where we

Are in the economy so regardless of what the GDP is coming out that because don’t forget one of the pieces of analysis we’ve done a lot is we’ve got GDP but actually what we really care about is G GDP per head in the UK so if the GDP is

On the increase but actually when you look at the GDP per head we’re decreasing it means our population’s going up up and per person we’re becoming less productive and that’s the position we’re at so how long term is that sustainable the answer is I do not know

And I do not know if these are isolated you know job cuts and if other things are being created because I’ve not done the research that so again I’d be really interested to hear your thoughts on the job Cuts because when you look at the um the actual data with jobs we’re still

Pretty much historically at a low unemployment rate um it’s I think we’re still at 4.2 or 4.3 4.3% um in terms of uh in terms of unemployment which is way below historical averages now yes this data is completely flawed we know it’s flawed we know the on has said um that they’re not

Getting the level of respondence they need from the usual channels to create this data set so therefore they’re using experimental data based on RTI realtime information data that’s pulled from payroll providers so we have no idea what’s actually going on with this right now it’s very difficult to make an

Assessment of where we actually are with the jobs and the unemployment Market the one thing we have seen and I did have this out but I I I for some for some reason I think I’ve missed it or I think it’s come off what we have seen is

The vacancies come down a lot um in fact if I let me just quickly Google it um if I go unemployment data and vacancies because I think that’s as a leading indicator is the most interesting um thing that we can look at right if I can find

It these things are never never easy to find are they here we go sorry about this there we go here’s the one so this is the vacancy survey from the on and we can see the continued downtrend of vacancies now let’s not forget we we’re still above the normal

Vacancy rate okay so we obviously spiked down then we had a big surge after Co when people what clearly happened with Co is a lot of people left the workplace and so therefore a lot of companies have been advertising to fill those slots of the people who never came back after

Covid as the economy is softening there’s less requirement to bring on more headcount so that vacancy rate is is dropping steadily and it is a pretty steady line um and for me that is that is showing where we are going right now in terms of the economy so that’s

Something we need to watch um but when we look at the actual you know the these are earnings you can see how we are effectively above um uh so we’re in realtime earnings growth but if we look at the you know payroll employees monthly change minus 24,000 it’s you

Know it’s not huge quarterly change up 0.1 um PPS um this is the experimental data it’s not really showing massive unemployment in fact there we go 4.2 is the unemployment rate um so it’s not showing massive data so that is something we need to keep an eye on

Because remember this for me is the second trigger is high unemployment and for me it’s the thing that is also going to be the lynchpin of the UK housing market over the over this year if the economy stays just stagnant right and there’s not massive job Cuts then

There’s not going to be massive for sellers out there and so therefore the UK property Market will not go and crash if the economy tumbles off a cliff which there are no signs right now that it will by the way I would say there’s no concrete data that we’re just about to

Implode you know I think we’re clearly going to be creaking with the interest rates as they are but that is a lever that the you know the bank has the ability to pull when they need to pull it um if we do see the massive un employment which I don’t believe we will

Do that’s when we we will see large um uh large property price Falls and I know there are a lot of people out there um on YouTube sphere and all that sort of stuff who are kind of you know I I I feel are creating finding selective data

Finding things like the unemployment or redundancies going on grabbing onto it and going right this is now widespread the whole economy is about to stopple and the whole property Market is going to go with it I’m not right now looking at it I I’m genely not convinced I’m not

Saying it won’t I’m just saying the data I don’t feel shows it but the data is so unaccurate right it’s so meaningless nobody knows exactly exactly where we are so where does that leave us um where does that leave us in terms of the path

That we are taking over the next 3 six 12 months well a couple of weeks ago the market were betting on a 1% drop in interest rate so Bank of England base rate over 2024 so four qu four quar quarter point drops I don’t feel I agree

On that looking at it I don’t think there’s a strong enough case that the bank are going to suddenly launch in and start slashing interest rates because we have we have the push pull you know and the the the positive things are being outweighed well not outweighed probably

Counterbalanced by the negative things I think there’s still enough question marks for the bank just to want to sit on it and see where we are for quite a while so I don’t feel we’ll get there to warm Cent drop in 2024 might be wrong um so therefore I feel these Push Pull

Effects so we have you know increasing affordability ultimately but we also have you know more people coming off the fix rate mortgages these macro things I feel again we’ll just keep the market as we are fairly pushpull fairly stagnant maybe with some slight drop it could be

A slight drop slight rise I think it’s going to be fairly stagnant in nominal terms but with continued realterm drops I believe there is a skewed downside risk at the moment and what do I mean by that I think ra there’s more chance of something happening which for me be that

Sort of Black Swan geopolitical event which tips it into the large negative downside rather than the opposite which is we go back to a significant growth in the UK property Market in 2024 so I think the the the skew is to the downside to the negative um I feel for

It to go there it has to be a third party blacks one event I’m not convinced we’ll get there ourselves because we’ll just carry on limping on this year so that’s where I believe um we are right now in um in the UK property market and

The economy as a whole um I’d love to hear your thoughts on that as we do it by the way if this is um I know I’ve not been live for for a week and a half I I apologize for not going through this stuff in more detail over last week I

Had broken it down more but as you know that I do this to help you empower the choices you make to take back control of your Financial Freedom right that’s what I specifically do so I always ask a favor and I ask for your help to get me

Out to more people to reach more people to help more people Empower themselves to do the same and the more people that are part of this channel the more resources I have the more I can put into it so I don’t have to go awall for a

Week and a half because I’m running around in Chester getting uh getting property developments up and running and all those other things so all I ask all I ever ask is that if you find Value from this and you think other people that you know would find value of this

Please subscribe to the channel that’s the biggest metric that YouTube looks for uh when they’re giving more reach and like the video to help it gets to more people it’s the only thing I will ever ask so please right now if you’re still on watching please hit subscribe

If you are not subscribed to the channel and please hit like on the like button and um what I am going to do is I’m going to go through very quickly the latest zuper house price index because I think that gives us an interesting insight as to where we are uh right now

Based on the zuper data now um I really rate the zuper house price index because it’s not an HPI like Halifax like Nationwide like the on it’s not a honic regression model it’s more a a model that zup creative it’s almost more like a like a crystal ball okay so it shows

Us activity and then it gives it crunches that data and gives some predictions so you know zuper are are fairly fairly bullish it’s a fairly bullish HPI for January so you can see in the title they’ve got house price Falls are slowing as more sales are

Being agreed in the first weeks of 2024 okay this is good news for the housing market um we kind of if I if we look down at the graph we flatlined in terms of zup’s HPI so there’s no drop from December um to to January so uh we’re sitting there what’s the

What’s all property 264400 it was the same in November so this is sorry this is November to December’s 264400 um it was only in October 264 600 so really in three months gone down 200 of property not an awful lot there are some caveats to this though that I would

Like to highlight if we look at this it’s very clear we have a north south divide in what’s going on in the property markets right we’ve known this for a while because we know that if we if we draw a down the middle here and we

Go up it’s actually with the increase in rents um that we’ve seen over the last 18 months it’s probably still cheaper even with current interest rates to go and buy a property to live in than it is to rent a property whereas clearly down south with higher higher Capital values

It’s going to be affected more the other thing to note is that we look at the annual percentage changes we have a disproportionate skew for Northern Ireland with Belfast being 4% up year on year and then the next two um hot spots for annual percentage change of glasgo

And Edinburgh again two two hot cities I know they’re hot um because I’ve had some calls with people from them recently so the top three are out of England so there is definitely a skew um from England versus well I would say England Wales versus Northern Ireland

Scotland and then uh if you look at the the English cities okay we’ve only got a handful um that that in the green for annual percentage the vast majority are in the red and if you interestingly abina is minus 2.9% um but we’ve got you know we’ve got

Minus 2.7% Southampton Port South Coast now I know they’ve boomed because I liveed near there um so anyway my point is we have to understand those Regional variations and understand where the skews are rather than just looking at this which is an average for the whole

Of the UK so that’s the first thing to mention on this um they talk about buyer demand rising at the start of 2024 um and again I would say sentiment wise I I can feel in the water that people have some more confidence there’s some

Confidence um on its way up now I in fact what I what I will do I I forgot to get this is um UK PMI uh data because I did want to talk about this um if I go I don’t want manufacturing PMI I want the composite

PMI so for those of you who don’t know PMI is the purchase um purchase managers index and it is effectively a survey of purchasing managers and it’s it’s seen as a very accurate prediction of what’s going on in the economy okay for the future so if I go on to line line chart

As we came down here sort of mid last year it was starting to look a bit ugly for the economy and there was some there was some talk about it actually dipping down a lot lower than it than it made just for interest sake if you don’t know

And I’m just going to go back here so it’s a bit more clear and zoom in for you is it going to zoom in on the charts you can’t really see but this this scale here is 50 so any reading on the monthly PMI above 50 shows um the purchase man

Managers purchasing managers who have done the survey believe that um we’re going to be in growth going forward right and if it’s negative we’re going to be contracting as an economy so over here in the middle of last year we were under by quite a long amount right and

Um August September it looked like it was going to start capitulating and that would be a red flag for a recession however November December and now January well in fact October so we’ve seen a trend from September upwards the trend but the last three months in a row

We’ve been 50 so that shows quite a lot of confidence I would suggest coming back now whether that’s proves to be misplaced confidence or not I’m not sure but there’s lots of other surveys out there as well that are showing confidence increasing right and if you think about it you think about

Affordability getting better for people it’s been a a torrid sort of 18 months to two years for people in terms of that affordability it feels for a lot of it certainly feels for me like there’s light at the end of the tunnel afford affordability gets better now again this

Is perception I’m not saying it is getting better better food still going up there’s still loads of things going up um you know in terms of a lot of price but utilities are way down coming down um you know mortgage rates are coming down salap rates coming down

That’s going to affect perception and consumer confidence if people feel they have more money in their pocket they’re more likely to go out and spend stuff um I would suggest and again when we look at the actual figures I don’t have the graph in front of me um people are

Spending more in terms of a monetary value than they were but on less items which is probably obvious because of the inflation we’ve had so things are more expensive so we’re spending more but we’re getting less for our money that’s fairly obvious but as the inflation

Comes down that will start to even out anyway let’s go back to zuper so um we can see this confidence come back but it’s not like this is an isolated thing if you look at every January you get this big spike in um in in demand as you

Come out of the Christmas period into January right and January rolling into the spring is always the most buoyant part of the property market so yes we have a spike here just like we had a spike in Jan 23 the spike has taken us slightly higher okay on the demand index

But I wouldn’t say massively man but we do have an uptrend if you look at where we were in 21 um you know going 22 look at how high we were in the demand index so we we we are nowhere nowhere compared um you know to where we were a couple of

Years ago and if we track back um we’re we’re doing less than we were preco lockdown um and we’re kind of just doing you know better than we were in in 2019 which was not a great year for the property market so demand has se see it

Has seen a strong rebound but we have to put it in context that we’re still sub 100 on that measure um all of the other metrics zup are saying are up year on year right so they’re showing a lot of positivity so buy and demand up 12%

Number of sales greed it’s big one for me 133% flow of new Supply people are starting to put their properties back on the market stock of home for sale is going up now this is interesting because what this is saying to me is that the market is on on freezing remember in the

Last quarter well the last half of last year we talked about the fact we’re just Frozen we’re in paralysis I feel it’s unfreezing now when it unfreezes when we have more liquidity in the market more transactions going on chances are right if somebody needs to sell and they need

To sell quickly they’re going to have to be much more realistic with their prices so more stock on the market is going to force those sellers who have been maybe holding out because there’s been a lack of Supply maybe they’re now going to have to get more realistic so does that

Mean we now see a nice little I say nice little that’s probably the wrong word a dip okay in sales prices as we unthaw or will it go the other way and actually buy demand goes up loads um and we go up I don’t I don’t think that’s

Going to happen because if we look at the B The Bu demand is up 12% but the flow of new Supply is up 14% And the stock of homes for selles up is up 12% so the flow of new Supply and the stock or you know the increase of flow of new

Supply the increase of stock homes for sale is outstripping The Bu demand at the moment so we’ll see what happens with that however we are definitely unfreezing what else do we have the only other thing to to leave you with before I go into um um into Q&A is one of the

Reasons that we have not capitulated in the housing market is affordability has improved okay so if we look at the affordability charts right right now look at London so London was up at probably over 14 that’s almost 15 times earnings and now it’s down what’s that 13 so it’s actually that’s a decent

Percentage job in terms of affordability we’ve seen you know South excluding London come down we’re seeing affordability improve across the board now why is affordability improving yes house prices have kind of largely stayed stagnant for the last year now we haven’t seen that big crash but that’s nominal house prices if we

Look at real house prices they have crashed right they we talked about it they crashed almost 20% um since the since the peak so with that crash in real house prices right Flatline in ninal house prices but wage growth so Nom flat nominal house prices and wage nominal wage growth going up means

Affordability improves crash in real house prices but Flatline real house real real rage growth means affordability so the affordability has improved for people for me this depends on where interest rates settle up settle I’ve talked at length about the theory behind the big driver with house prices

Longterm on a macro scale is where Global interest rat is going to settle down so we it looks like we’re turning the corner okay in terms of that Outlook of where we are it looks like we’re at the top of the tightening cycle the question is how far do they go do they

Come down and settle in the 3 to 4% range or is inflation going to undershoot and interest rates going to end up back at low levels that’s the big question so when we’re looking at a macro level over the next 5 10 15 years that’s the answer that we need to know

Where are we going to end up with interest rates because that will be the long-term thing if we end up sitting at four four and a half% interest rate right for the next 5 years we will not see any sort of return or I do not

Believe we’ll see any sort of return to big boom in housing markets people out there talking about property doubles every 10 years no it doesn’t right fact wrong if you will depends how you want to skew the statistics I would say no it doesn’t I think that’s factually factually wrong unless you’re you’re

Spinning statistics um if however for whatever reason we see interest rates drop off I think we’ll be back to the races with property prices going up quite rapidly over the next few years if we end up with cheap debt again okay that’s where we are that’s my thoughts

Lovely all right let’s see what questions we have Team I’m going to go through them um by way give me a thumbs up if there’s some interest there hello everybody uh so sorry I’m just going to go through these as I see them from top to bottom Stuart says not expecting

Large nominal Falls flat Market through to 2026 Stuart I think we probably agree on that after my summary tour price is flat through early 24 yep then a tank then tanking when labor gets to number 10 I’ll put that in I think that that that is actually an interesting thing as

To what will be the Fallout of the election the answer is we just don’t know at the moment um I think we will see clearly we’ll see some shortterm stimulus in terms of excuse me policies from the Tories when we get to April budget question is um when they are when

They are out um I can’t see rabbit being ped out the bag now uh when they are out are they all just going to get reversed anyway or not implemented so that’s something to watch man how you doing Teddy B we’ll see stickiness in April with the

Nmw um sorry you might have to um I’m I’m feeling a little bit tired and brain fogged at the moment so you have to help me with nmw with the UK being a service industry economy you have a greater impact than other countries yeah that’s that’s fair point um to Biden says he’s

Selected option of response has selected option of response to Iran will want to be seen as being strong on electoral SE I put that on tour yeah look I get it um as I said nobody wants to go full full frontal conflict with Iran it’s a it’s a

Nasty place with an ex you know anyway let’s not go down that route uh so we’ll see what happens with that but it’s definitely for me that’s the that’s the disproportionate downside risk right that is going to could or have the impact to drag everything down very

Rapidly um Jimmy do you think that the Tories will bring in 99% mortgages and if so how do you see that impacting housing market in the short term I’ve got to be honest I’ve not I’ve not done because I’ve been so busy over the last

Couple of weeks um i’ I’ve not had my usual eye on all of the detail that’s coming out of you know everybody’s mouths and all the rubbish that’s being spewed out it’s clearly something that’re that they’re looking at um well they bring in 99% mortgages well ultimately anything that improves

Affordability will have an impact on on house prices so you know I always talk about house houses are worth what somebody can pay for them at the end of the day so what you can pay for it depends on what you can borrow if you can borrow more you can

Pay more and therefore on a macro level house prices go up so anything that stimulates that anything that enables you to um to afford more or borrow more and of course you know if you can only get an 80% mortgage now you can get 99% mortgage you can borrow more so that

Will I think without a doubt stimulate demand whether it’s um you know pushes it back up in the short term is another question because what you could find is it just continues to prop the market we go stagnation stagnation stagnation um you know it’s it’s the same as um you

Know 30-year mortgage 40-year mortgage terms it’s the same as Bank of M and Dad giving deposits all these things increase affordability you can borrow more interest rates coming down means you can borrow more for the same or you can afford more sorry you can you can afford the same monthly payments for

More amount of borrowing so yes all these things will artificially inflate the market and don’t don’t forget I would suggest most atories want the market property market to continue going up the property market and the UK economy are intrinsically linked right they are stic with each other is

Probably the the housing market and people moving you know and therefore all the money they’re spending on you know new new new furniture new TVs new electrical new white goods new stuff for the house decorating DIY extensions roof you know all this sort of stuff all of

These all this money that people spend is all dependent on people moving from home to home to home to home so yes I believe they you know nobody wants it to go and crash uh okay what we got Robin OPEC caused the recent oil Spike yes they did

Yes they throttled it in there US and Canada now producing massive amounts of oil and gas OPEC no longer has Monopoly there could be further tax cuts as an election carrot um I think there will be further tax cuts I agree with you Robin I think that’s what they are going to um

Come out because don’t forget they’re going to have a lot more money to to play with as we go into um you know this budget than they probably thought they were going to six months ago if you just look at the sheer amount of money they were

Servicing on the debt pile as well as covering the losses of quantitative um tightening policy which basically because the you know the bank have been you know say Bank of England not Bank the central bank has been selling off um bonds at a loss due to where you know

Where interest rates are the government treasury has been covering those losses that’s an agreement they had as the as the yields fall um effectively that means they don’t have to do as much they’ve got more money to play with than they thought they inevitably they’ll do whatever they

Can to try and get some form of Manifesto to get you know get reelected tax guts is you know tax guts and property Market are clearly the easiest places to to hit with that um so Alexi says chance of miras or will it be too costly for the taxpayer I’m G to put

That on um you’re you’re testing my knowledge here because I’m not I wasn’t a homeowner in the ’90s but let me just get this right miras was the ability for a residential homeowner to offset their interest costs um against tax burden as far as I’m aware is that correct can

Somebody confirm that uh confirm that with me um and therefore I believe that was in or removed was it early 90s and therefore caused one of the sort of run-ups and booms in in in demand and property prices people were trying to you know buy before that was removed um

Would it be too costly for the taxpayer I I’ve not seen the figures and I’ve not even I’ve not seen it muted actually so I’d be delighted have a look at the figures on that Alexi it’s a really good question Teddy says what about repossessions yes so Teddy um

Repossessions and AAR data comes out quarterly um I’m expecting the next set for Q4 of 2023 to be out next week or the week after at the latest and when it comes out uh that’ll be something we’ll be looking out because as you know if

You watched any of um of these before in quarter three we were seeing a fairly consistent up optic in residential areas nothing um it wasn’t catastrophic but optic which we would expect to see we were seeing a catastrophic uptic and balet so the bolet sector is really

Being Hamed um there we go so yeah Robin talking about Market starting to normalize um 100% China in trouble domestically flooding export countries to cheap products solar panels have already halved in price and I I think this is something that um I think people are you know we have we have narratives so

Look I want I’m trying to think how to phrase this there are a lot of people who are commentators on on social or on YouTube whose narrative has been um inflation it’s here forever we’re all screwed it’s all lies they’re making up the data um which of course is you know it’s great

For eyeballs on videos and all that sort of stuff but the reality is right um it’s not all some big tin hat conspiracy theory I’m not saying things are not manipulated of course they are of course people have agendas of what they’re trying to achieve I’m not saying that in

The slightest those are obviously things that happen but we’re not just going to sit there in massive inflation um you know forever because a lot of it was supply side shock right so with the supply sh sh supply side shock we’re going to have that constriction of

Supply that’s going to push prices up we then had various other things that have happened like you know for example in in the car market the semiconductor you know crisis when that came in and completely destroyed you know supply of cars which rocketed their prices in the secondhand market and then you know

What’s happened is we’ve now we’re now getting back to normality and actually you know we’ve probably got overbought over supply of stuff and if we you know because people are tightening because of interest rates and um you know potential recession or flatlining people are tightening they’re spending less we now

Have an over supply of goods and people not buying them so of course that means goods are going to have to come down so we we talked a couple of months ago about are we going to go into a deflationary p period if are we going to overshoot it massively Could

Happen uh John saying let’s put this on um and uh oh BL we’re getting loads of comments here team John the change of property Market are hard to call as there’s so much moving information if you can identify real value in relation to rental yield that’s the main

Principle love it John you you summarized it better than I could have done myself so I I thank you for that I I agree with you it’s it’s hard to call which is why my my prediction is roughly stagnated it might be a little bit up it

Might be a little bit down over this year I don’t see it going anywhere massively unless we have a third party sorry a a blacks one style event and don’t forget right the last major crash we had 2008 was a blacks one event it wasn’t just a you know it wasn’t just a

Gradual thing that then capitulated it was a very very acute event and that was 2008 and then the last dip we had was what in you know in the 90s sort of late 80s into early 90s and that was a big old horrible proper recession with mass unemployment

We’re not in that position I don’t think we are in that position and those are the last two big property property crashes that we’ve seen in the last last 30 years really I don’t feel we’ve got the organic elements for that unless we see another blacks one event which of

Course can happen right and I think we have a lot of fragility in the system so that black one event could topple things over but if it doesn’t happen I think we’ll kind of Flatline we’ll come out of it you know people are limping Along

Come out of it and then we will get back to some form of growth at some point um so yeah that’s that’s my thoughts but as you say so look last year 20123 um turned into a fantastic year you know I’ve I’ve done I’ve done deals

I’m buying uh we’ve got offers out at the moment um we’re negotiations for properties at the moment because there are some fantastic buying opportunities right now especially in commercial mix juice or any style of investment property that is valued on a commercial basis because with interest rates at the highest

Because of the inverse relationship between yield and value commercial property values are out their lowest so there are some fantastic opportunities for those who have to sell now those who don’t have to sell will just weather it out right it’s a paper paper loss there will always be people who have to sell

So you got to find those Diamonds in the Rough you know find the motivated Sellers and there are out there especially in in um investor uh or institutional sellers you know not residential but investor who just want to get out for all the various reasons right there’s fantastic opportunities

Out there that we can get great yields especially when we can force value appreciation recycles what I always talk about in fact that Segways beautifully John into something I did want to talk to everybody about before I end uh today so one of the things that I’ve been very

Busy with recently sorry John um I’m just going to take you off uh so I can talk about this one of the things that’s been keep me very busy the last couple of weeks is I’ve launched a community um it’s a property Community it’s specifically for property investors

People who are looking to to buy these sort of properties and invest in these sort of properties larger higher cash flowing higher yielding properties that work in the current environment where the opportunity is that I feel it’s what I’ve been buying for the last few years okay it’s called the property unicorn

Club um I just want to very very I hope it’s all right with you very very quickly talk to you um about it and what the property unic Club is all about and if it’s something you are interested in um it’s um a very very affordable investment level to join the community

Let me put it in now um and uh let me come off Will’s post there and I’ll start here in the classroom um this is something I’ve had a vision to launch for a very long time and it’s my it’s my vision to create a powerful property investment Community

Which is Affordable but gives you a 100 times return on on the monthly basically membership price and it’s split into several um several sections we’ve got trainings so you can see here we we’ve got you know quite a lot of quite a lot of trainings property training training

Videos but where the real power is is every month we go live and I do a monthly Master Class where I teach you live what’s going on in the property world and what’s working right now and strategies and all that sort of stuff and we also have every month a live

Coaching session with me so I’ll come and Coach you so it’s your ability to get coached By Me on property um we also have a very powerful and very active community that we are now we are now building and more people are joining us every day and the whole point of the

Community is that there’s opportunity there’s support there’s accountability okay and um because it is a paid for community it attracts people who are serious about what they’re doing so there’s opportunity for finding deals buying deals investing and just building your property business and it’s all based on engagement okay so we have

Abilities to the more you engage the more points you get the more points you get the more cool bonuses and unlocks and stuff you get and then we have leaderboards and every month on the leader boards those at the top of the month leader boards get hot seats on the

Coaching sessions right so I get to you know personally coach you face to face so if it’s something that you think would be a benefit from you in your property journey and I know it’s not going to be for everybody at all but it’s specifically for property investors

There’s a link in the description that tells you a bit more about it and I’m going to put a link um in the comment section as well um uh which I’ll pin to the top after this video so you can find out about it it’ be great to see you in

There it’s just monthly monthly membership less than joining a gym um and it’s no commitment at all so the very worst you can do is come on um uh consume all of the you know information and trainings we got there be coached by me for a month um and learn some cool

Stuff and then cancel uh and for the next uh we’ve got founder membership about the next 20 people who join it’s half price for life as well um in so have a look at that right we’ve probably got time for one more question so Richard says don’t ignore

The fact that 1.8 million people still have to come off their cheap mortgages um yeah we talked about that Richard I think I said 1.6 so um you we might be slightly out but going into 2025 as well sorry teddy national minimum wage I told you my brain was not working it’s what

Happens when I’m on hour six of of live uh live trainings um so far so John another one from John let me put this on and then I am going to um I’m going to call it a night there is a rash of vacant offices now coming on to the

Market in the UK much the same as what’s been happening in the US this really could be the start of the slide the clear out and here I believe is the opportunity in this sector um I I think it’s a fantastic opportunity um you know for anybody who wants to get into property

Um this is where the opportunity is so I look forward for those you who want to pick my brains more about it to do it inside the property Club property unicorn club right team I’m going to um wrap it up from there because I’ve been

On for over 50 minutes now so we’re past my 45 minute cut off but it’s been a pleasure NPC meeting tomorrow it’s going to be a dull non-event so I’m not anticipating I’m going to be going live tomorrow to talk about it um but of course we’re going to be going into

February so we’re going to start to get a snapshot of what’s been happening in the last month with the IND to Seas um Nationwide will be out first probably on Thursday so I’ll probably try and go live on Thursday and break down a nationwide HPI in the until then have a

Great couple of days and it’s good to be back in the hot seat I’ll see you in a couple of days team oh that’s not even the outro it’s been like a week and a honestly a week and a half and I don’t even know what buttons to press it’s

Because somebody’s changed my buttons I’ll do the outro now see you team Oh