Action Network soccer experts BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo preview the weekend slate of English Premier League games and games around the rest of Europe. They give out their best bets and an underdog parlay on the latest episode of Wondergoal presented by bet365! Click here for more soccer betting picks: https://bit.ly/SoccerAction
Subscribe to the Wondergoal podcast: https://www.actionnetwork.com/podcasts/wondergoal
00:00 – European Soccer Betting Preview
00:36 – bet365
01:41 – Arsenal’s Title Chances
06:06 – Arsenal vs Crystal Palace
10:35 – Brentford vs Nottingham Forest
19:50 – Sheffield United vs West Ham
26:10 – Bournemouth vs Liverpool
34:30 – Brighton vs Wolves
39:24 – AFCON Update
44:06 – Bundesliga Best Bets
49:24 – Serie A Best Bets
54:01 – La Liga Best Bets
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#AuthorAnthonyDabbundo #AuthorBradCunningham
Hello everybody and welcome back to wonder goal the soccer betting podcast from the Action Network I’m Anthony dundo joined by BJ Cunningham Michael leof is on a one two3 Cancun trip this week he’ll be back uh next week to join us for a full premier league slate we’ve
Got a shorten slate this weekend only five matches the second half of match week 20 in the Prem and there are some interesting matches we need to get into including the Arsenal title hopes DND as we speak but before we get into that remember that Wonder go is presented by
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1800 Gambler in Colorado Kentucky New Jersey Ohio and Virginia or winning 100 bets off in Iowa terms and conditions apply BJ BJ BJ Anthony Anthony Anthony since we last spoke about the Gunners yeah they have suffered a couple of setbacks you know they lost to West Ham they lost to Fulham two matches
Where you know we thought they wouldn’t have a ton of issues and uh you know the Arsenal style this control-based approach kind of uh withered a bit and now the current title odds courtesy of bet 365 Manchester City minus 175 Liverpool plus 250 Arsenal plus 750
I want to do before you know before we get into Arsenal Palace that’s the kickoff match 7:30 a.m. eastern on Saturday I want to kind of assess your current state is it over are we out of it no not have you given up because I’ve spoken to
Some Arsenal fans who have kind of no wavered on their belief in this team I mean here’s the thing if we go back to this bad run they’ve had where they drew Liverpool lost to West Ham just got caught on the wrong side of variant there I would agree bad performance at
Fulham going ahead and and not really playing well uh with a lead there and then in the FA Cup they just got caught on the wrong side of variance against Liverpool where they were largely the better team for pretty much the entire match so that really hasn’t wavered
My feelings about Arsenal and their title hopes um it’s more of a fact that you know we say this like every single year it’s just like it seems like once city is not like completely dominating leag it’s like it seems like they’re about to go on a run but they
Really are because of the return of Kevin De bryo which you saw against Newcastle is a pretty big addition uh in the middle of the Season here he’s probably their most important player and they’re getting him at uh the right time so I know opta has City at 63% to win
The title so about you know minus 175 is it’s pretty fair uh given the current odds and Arsenal’s around 3% so from a data perspective yeah it does look over but we’ll see as we go forward um it doesn’t look like Arsenal’s going to buy a striker in January and I’m I’m I’m
Glad they didn’t because they don’t need to waste the money at this point um it’s very very difficult at this point to to see a path but this team can control matches they’re still an elite defensive team they just need to figure out this offensive uh attack and try to get teams
Through the middle of the pitch which we’ll talk about here in a second against Palace odard and HTS need to go to a different level if Arsenal is going to win the title that is what it’s going to come down to Saka and Martinelli are going to continue to get doubled out
Wide Arsenal’s continue to be a very good defensive team they’re going to continue to control matches but it’s going to be their ability to create chances to the middle of the pitch and that is going to be the ultimate Difference Maker if Arsenal is going to challenge Liverpool and city for the
Title but as it stands it seems like city is going to go on a run here um we’ll see if that happens um but right now from the current odds uh I don’t think anything is really playable yeah I think it’s more interesting you know we’re GNA get into
The Champions League it’s coming back in like two weeks so we’re gonna we’re gonna have a pot on that uh in about three weeks from now and we’ll we’ll discuss kind of the round of 16 matchups and and maybe we’ll do uh we’ll each pick a future again to ride for the each
Of the of the three uh competitions in Europe but I kind of think Arsenal like right now given the situation of some of the other top tier contenders across Europe you know we’ve seen some holes with PSG we’ve seen some question marks about real and Barca I think both are
Not on the level of you know City Arsenal and even Liverpool I think you know what’s a better BET right now right if you want to bet Arsenal and you think that and generally I agree like I don’t haven’t really materially downgraded Arsenal in the last two matches three matches just
Because I wasn’t as high on them prior and I kind of think those matches were just what they were just kind of natural things that are going to happen in their style of play but I think there you know what’s a better BET right now Arsenal at
Plus 650 to win the Champions League or Arsenal at plus 750 700 to win the league for me given that City and Liverpool are both in my mind better teams and have now have Point leads I kind of think that the better bet almost is to lean into this defense and them
Winning a knockout tournament so we’ll get more into that in a couple weeks haven’t actually fired anything yet but for me I think Arsenal is a better bet in the oneoff kind of tournament hope they get a good draw you know they should get through Porto and then you
Know maybe you know you don’t know what the draw is going to be but could get a good draw in the quarters whereas uh in the league I I just don’t think there’s enough goals in this team and that’s why I also you know Arsenal plays Palace I’m
Betting under two and a half at plus 110 uh I have this projected right at two and a half you look at you know the difference in Arsenal this year and we’ve talked about this at nauseum on this show but kind of like in the in the
Minutia like what has changed and it’s been that they just aren’t a very good Crossing team anymore they were really good last year in crosses in the penalty area and getting those cut back runs uh because they were able to get odard you know those late runs the ball
Progression Jaa we saw the first half of the Season especially he did really well in that new role kind of getting forward and this year so much more of their attack has been shunted through Saka and it’s kind of left them just relying on Saka pinging crosses or beating a man
And that’s been the whole team and like you mentioned you know they they’ve doubled him a lot and he’s you know had a good year he’s he’s been as good as he was last year but everybody else around him from Martinelli to odard to HTS in
That role to jayus all of them have not replicated what they did last season uh and as a result you’re just seeing an Arsenal team especially from open play uh which has just not been very good they’ve been below average as an attack and XG from open play so now they play a
Palace team notoriously stingy who is going to be short-handed no uh Michael lisay now he’s hurt we had like three games where we were like oh it’s time to buy Palace and then oisa got hurt and now I use it afcon and he’s you know been a pretty
Productive Winger for them and they’re they’re starting you know they have a couple options here right they started Matas Fran francea in the uh in the FA Cup against Everton Jeff schlup I expect to start he’s not giving you much in terms of creativity and and forward production
Uh they started Will Hughes today in in the cup alongside e and then they played a two-man Midfield with Richards and Lura I kind of think they’re going to run that back with Richards and Lura Midfield pretty good ball players decent Defenders but again like you’re not getting any ball progression or forward
Passing from that midfield if it’s Will Hughes Jefferson Lura Chris Richards and then it’s just all on E and you know I the first meeting between these two teams was e and Edward and Palace had three XG in an hour and 10 minutes prior to the red card at home against Arsenal
And they created s of their of their expected goals all after the red card to uh tomasu which was kind of a dodgy red to begin with so I I kind of like the under here I think the total’s a little inflated maybe Arsenal you know finds a
Bunch of goals and pounds them but uh given how they played this year I think under’s the way to go at plus money yeah I agree um the thing with Palace and I think what you’ve been seeing kind of lately is that you know typically Roy Hudson’s you know a low block
Counterattacking type of manager but since ois has come back into the team he’s been a lot more willing to play out of the back try and play a lot of short passes to get the ball moving forward to get the ball into Elis and E’s feet because that’s where they’re at their
Best they’re Elite ball carriers they can really rip apart a defense with their dribbling and they’re not you know it’s not optimal for Crystal Palace to just send long balls up to them and have them act like you know a Chris Wood or an Ashley Barnes type of Striker like no
You need to get the ball at their feet and going forward so you know matches against Chelsea and brenford Palace has played more attacking they have played more open but now that Alis is hurt and they’re facing a team like Arsenal like you mentioned is struggling in terms of chance
Creation I think Roy hodson’s gonna go back to his patented low block and just cut off Central progression and just dare Arsenal to beat them uh with Saka and Martinelli and doubling them up so uh I agree on the under um and you know I mean here’s the thing with Arsenal is
That even if you look look back through their last few matches against you know West Ham fham Luton toown they’ve created north of two expected goals in those type of matches and they’ve played really really well offensively but now you’re facing a low block in Crystal Palace when they decide they want to
Play a low block and they want to play very defensive they are really really good in it you know they have given up some you know High XG totals but again like I said they’ve been playing more open because of Lisa getting back into
The roster so um I agree with you I have this projector right at to two and a half as well so with CL playing more conservative under two and a half at plus 110 I think has some value all right 12:30 Eastern brenford Forest guess who’s back yeah our boy
Again and uh I I think we have to bet him anytime goal score if he starts as a grouper and as a uh a tribute but Ivan Tony is expected to start so I don’t think they’re gonna sell him actually don’t think he has that much value to
Like a top four team we were talking about this uh with Matt treby friend of the Pod yeahor NFL way more way more value this summer because what you have is a striker that’s coming off this long of a suspension teams are not and brenford is wanting a lot of money and
Rightfully so for him teams are not going to pay that that amount of money for what getting necessarily an unknown with a striker who’s not like 23 like he’s getting closer to 30 so exactly I also think he just generally has more value to brenford and how they play than he does to
Uh you know an Arsenal or a team like that and and Tony’s strength his biggest strength is that you can form an attack with a couple of players with him being one of them not send numbers forward and he’s able to hold up the ball effectively he’s able to take on numbers
And be an attack a very efficient Counterattack without having a lot of players it’s just different when you ask him to you know operate in a team like Arsenal uh where they’re going to have all the possession and more numbers in and around the penal area defending
Against you know a set defense more often than not it Just changes a lot tactically and so I think I’m happy Tony staying looks like he is they need him too I mean godos is at the afcon VIS is at the afcon and bu mes out to March uh
Ona’s at the afcon so this is a brenford team that is pretty short on attacking Talent I’m guessing it’s going to be Tony and mape which I think is a perfectly fine attacking Duo uh but we’ve seen the the concerns for Forest here are that they
Have a ton of guys at afcon as well coate was at afcon uh then then left the team because of a personal matter niakate is at afcon sangar is at afcon Willie Bali is at afcon that’s like the core of this defensive unit uh that are
All gonna be missing here and these are two teams that just haven’t been very good defensively and have had really tough time with shot stopping and goal if you go by post shot expected goals this year uh there is some noise in the data because Forest had uh vados in
There for a while and he was the worst of anybody from at 90 Turner’s been below average but not as bad but Turner’s problems have actually been with his feet and I think you know the one thing with Turner you know he always put up those incredible numbers in MLS
Shot stopping he’s one of the best there was but his feet were the main reason he never got that early move and you’re seeing that now where teams are kind of taking advantage of and pressing him into mistakes including the United goal they gave up just before uh just after New Year
So both of these defenses this year Forest conceding one and a half XG per 90 since November 1st brenford conceding one and a half XG per 90 brenford attack is still producing like they’re about an even XG team if you look at their season long numbers they’re like plus 39 per
90 that’s like top six level production they have not been that for the majority of the season a lot of that was built up early in the season since you know the roughly the halfway point they’ve been a League average team and they’re running so bad because flecken and and goal has
Been the worst shot stopper in the Prem so yeah I think these defenses have flaws I think Tony’s back Forest uh you know you without a I don’t generally like this attack but they’ve found some new things to make it work Morgan Gibbs White’s healthy and been playing much better
Since Nuno came in so I like the over two and a half here I think the total is a little low especially given the poor quality of the shot Stoppers in the goalies in this match right now so over two and a half minus 115 I actually have this closer to
275 and I think it should close there I don’t know that it will because just because of the sheer number of missing players but I do like de over yeah I like brenford here I think this is a great byow spot um the difference that Tony makes Not only just
As a goal scorer but the profile that he has as a striker because basically what brenford has had to roll with is a keing Lewis Potter Neil mpai front two which you know is is fine if you’re a below average team in the Premier League but given the way that brenford plays given
The fact that they want to get the ball out wide and they want to send in crosses like those two guys aren’t really aerial threats at all so now you had Ivan Tony who is like one of the best aerial threat Strikers in the Premier League over the last two years
It’s massive for brenford given the style that they want to play and you mentioned it you know for nigan Forest you know they’re basically losing three of their four starters across their back line to afcon right now so I think we have to bet Tony anytime goal scorer but
More than anything is that yes brenford has gone through this pretty you know this bad run here like they still have a positive expected goal differential through losing six out of seven like that’s how bad they have run so I really like the spot here for brenford I have been projected at minus
124 um and especially for Forest you know AA and arer are at afcon you’re losing two of your best fullbacks and Defenders out wide against a team that primarily just wants to cross the ball in so a really bad spot here for Forest they have switched to a
4231 under Nuno they’ve tried to play out of the back a little bit more it’s not a 352 low block that we’ve seen under Steve Cooper when brenford wants to they can come out and press you and they can cause problems they’re really really good at pressing in the mid block
So they can cause a lot of problems if borest wants to try to build out of the back against them so um I think a good by low spot here for Benford one thing I’ll mention as well I brenford 12 to1 for a top half finish uh not only just
Getting Tony back but if you look through their injury list you know Kevin shade has been injured for a long time who was basically supposed to be Tony’s replacement he’s gonna come back at the beginning of February Aaron hickey who has been one of their best fullbacks is
Coming back at the beginning of February and buo is gonna be coming back at the beginning of March like there is a charge that brenford can make over the second half of the Season here and obviously getting everybody back from afcon as well once we get to the
Beginning of February so they have City coming up uh next after this one uh which is not optimal but uh you know if you look at some of the teams that are around them in the middle of the table you know teams like wolves and Fulham teams that have you know negative
Expected goal differentials teams that uh I don’t really see making a big charge and then you have obviously a team like West Ham who’s sitting in the top half of the table and is just begging to go on a bad run and then fall out of it like brenford could very
Easily make a charge here and get into the top half of the table um so a price at 12 to1 for a team that has a for a team that has a plus seven expect wheel differential like sitting right above the relegation zone I’m starting to get
Kind of like uh I don’t know if you feel this I’m start getting a little bit of brighten vibes from this brenford team the Brighton 20 2021 um we’ll see though but yeah at 12 to1 I mean you’re not going to find a better price on that and
Obviously you know who knows ever to get another points deduction here in a little bit and same thing with not Forest so um yeah brenford 12 to1 for top 10 then brenford on the money line here uh minus 110 I wish they would have an answer for goalie they haven’t even tried really
Like shikosha was they tried him in the FA Cup last last match against wolves and it didn’t really go well I should say that that’s the problem and like the eye test the match that he did play against man united the eye test was really bad on him too and Lazio moved
Off him you know pretty early uh and moved on to uh to provell so they knew something makes you think at least so I’m kind of just worried like the goalie situation is a big issue the way they play to concede a bunch of lowquality shots and not give
Away big scoring chances you need a positive shot stopper and for years they had Rya and they didn’t outrun their numbers by like crazy margins but they’re running so far behind them uh that it’s concerning for me and fle flein was never a like big time negative guy at fryberg like he was
Always like plus one or plus two like he wasn’t like a he wasn’t a blow average keeper he was just very slightly above average which you know fber plays a very similar style to that of brenford so like it made sense for brenford to to buy him but yeah I don’t know what’s
Going on but he’s been terrible yeah where’re going in the Prem and it’s killed them Brighton and brenford have actually you know the two teams that we love to bet on the most have uh suffered poor goalkeeping after selling their Keepers so you know I think maybe
Something we we look more into next year I think we kind of Overlook goalkeepers I mean obviously in small samples we’re talking 20 matches you know they’re facing like 200 shots it’s a really small sample but you know maybe as we go forward we should look more and and do
More work on goalkeepers I’m goingon to talk about one later in the or later in the Pod who uh is putting up some historic numbers but we move on to Sunday Sheffield United hosting West Ham 9:00 a.m. West Ham lined as a favorite here right around plus one 115 on the
Money line Sheffield plus 240 total sitting uh two and a half some some small juice toward the under minus 135 BJ I’ll let you go first here this match is really tricky yeah because I think it’s really hard to price this version of West Ham I think it really is too
Because if you look at what West Ham is losing right now you know the thing is is like we’ve talked about this West Ham defense at nauseum how they try to play the slow block and they’re really not effective at doing so and that kind of you know the matches you know against
Arsenal was really evident where they seeed close to three expected goals but no Peta probably no Jared Bowen kudus is at afcon who is really threatening in this attack they played Bristol City in the FA Cup and did next to nothing um they started a very very limited attack you
Know they’re basically just trying to rely on James Ward prow like sent an across and like hopefully they could get on the end of it but they did next to nothing because essentially what happened was Bristol City scored inside the first five minutes and they just sat
In a low block and they said like all right we dare you to break us down West Ham and they couldn’t do it so the same thing could happen here but now you have to question is Sheffield United good enough to actually do that um I’m not so
Sure I actually have this projected pretty close to um where the market has it so I I’m going to pass um you know United’s bringing in um Ben Diaz um you know Chilean Legend uh from via roale so maybe that helps their attack a little bit um
But yeah this is this is too tough for me um so maybe an under but unders are always dangerous playing with Sheffield United so I’m passing yeah so here’s some numbers right so Wilder comes in and at the time that he came into the team you know they were historically historically
Bad they were giving up 2.45 expected goals per match that’s over 100 goals allowed over the course of a of a full season and since he’s come in which is about the beginning of December they’re allowing about 1.5 XGA per 90 and it’s not even like they
Played a week schedule I mean they played Liverpool and they’ played Chelsea and they’ve played City and they’ve played Villa in that time frame so they played you know four of the six best seven best teams in the league in that time and they’re conceding now you
Know like I said 1.54 XGA per 90 which is the same amount as West Ham these two defenses since Wilder Kim came in have been about even and West Ham like you said no Packa to Bowen Antonio Ben Rama and kudus kudus they have scored one goal in three matches
Since all the injuries hit right so they they had the big win against Arsenal two-nil which they kind of stole they didn’t even have packet for that but you know they won then they play Brighton without any of them they don’t score they don’t really even look
Like scoring they had one big chance ball fell to uh so Che and he missed they had uh two shots from open play inside the penalty area against a Brighton defense which we have talked is not you know particularly good and you know like a League average defense and
Then they play Bristol City twice they scored one goal in the two matches tied the first one 1-1 Bowen scored the first goal in the fourth minute against Bristol then you know he picks up an injury so they essentially don’t have a goal score unless it’s a set piece it’s
Really hard to see how West Ham gets through here and I think it’s a cluster of injuries that make them extremely vulnerable like arola has saved this defense to a large extent but I find this interesting since you know I talked about the Wilder minutes only West Ham
And Sheffield had the exact same expected goal difference you strip out penalties and red cards since Wilder took over minus 042 per 90 minutes so Sheffield has a rest Advantage they’re catching almost a half goal at home I’m G to bet Sheffield United in this match okay I don’t show any value
In my numbers but I I think I think I’m I’m late to the party on Sheffield being improved under Wilder and I think I’m late to tr I I don’t think I’ve properly accounted I don’t know how you even properly account for just the sheer number of missing players for West Ham’s
Attack uh we’re looking at like Maxwell cornet uh Danny in and Pablo FAL guys who have not featured the Prem side all year and there’s you know it’s like okay maybe Ward prow Cooks a corner to like so Che or uh and they’re also missing mavropanos is questionable and AAR is missing
Too uh so you know Zuma obana just obana like we’ve seen that pairing and it’s not been very good this season so uh I hate this bet but this is this is my my side of the week ultimately I think Sheffield’s undervalued I’m not sure where the
Bottom is on this West Ham team because at a certain point like they got smoked at Brighton and they were outplayed by bris that’s just what they kind of are right now they’re they’re priced barely above a relegation team and I I kind of think that they’re like below average to begin
With with everybody healthy so yeah yeah give me the uh the blades at home I know leof would bet them if he were here oh yeah oh yeah he would uh I looked at West Ham team total under one and a half it’s minus 150 uh that’s tempting maybe maybe West
Ham to not score you chase like an ALT price it’s a good way to go about this potentially but yeah I’m going to take Sheffield on the spread here I think they’re think they’re decently live at home this is the I guess the headliner of the weekend not really but it’s a
Pretty weak slate in terms of like juicy matchups Liverpool visits Bournemouth uh when these two teams played at anfield in like match week three or four Liverpool closed a two-goal favorite Bournemouth was 12 to1 they scored in the first five minutes and they lost 31 now this version of Liverpool is a minus
145 Road favorite against Bournemouth who from start to finish of the course of the season I would argue is the most improved team of the first half uh even more than Everton because Everton was kind of good just to beginning the season Bournemouth the team I’ve probably upgraded the most from the
Beginning of the year to now catching just three quarters of a goal at home BJ thoughts I’m I’m really intrigued by this match too I am too but the market uh didn’t give us a fair didn’t give us a fun line uh to be honest I was kind of
Hoping we’d get Bournemouth at a full plus one which I thought we were going to get um and we didn’t get that so you know obviously Liverpool is going to be without Salah who is at afcon there soas slide looks like is doubtful for this match but maybe more importantly is uh
Wato Endo is out at the Asian cup with Japan so who has you could make an argument over this this surge that they’ve had has been one of their more important players given his ball winning in the middle of the pitch and that’s something that Liverpool really lacked
At the beginning what I find fascinating though Liverpool they’re what makes them so unbelievably fascinating to me is that you know if you go to you know the analyst which is a site that you all should check out um if you’re interested in like you know Advanced Data for the
Premier League other leagues um they have this chart of essentially how teams play whether they play more direct or whether they play more slow and more possessive and you know if you do the top right at the chart it’s like teams that pass the ball a lot in terms of
Sequences and have a high Direct speed and no teams are really ever in that little space because it’s like it’s hard to possess the ball so much and also just like play really really fast but Liverpool’s doing that so the way they’re able to just play direct and play right through teams is
Pretty amazing right now quite frankly um are they going to be able to manipulate this Bournemouth hybrid press which they did a very you know if you go back to the previous match between these two Bournemouth got a high turnover and that’s how they scored their first goal
And what happened was is that Liverpool was playing Trent Alexander Arnold in the middle and they were essentially warith was overloading that part they forced turn over and got it well what happened was is then they said all right we’re going to move Trent out wide and
You know with a hybrid presence it’s a mixture of man marking and zonal marking so nobody followed Trent alexand Arnold they just kind of stayed centrally and tried to limit Liverpool from progressing the ball through the middle and they just kept getting the ball out wide and creating overloads there with
Salah and now Trent and they just destroyed borith so are they able to do that again um given the Personnel that they have they could you know in the in their last match against Fulham they went with a front three of jota Harvey Elliot and Luis Diaz um obviously
Because of no Sal no mo Salah and then they did play uh Graven Burke alongside uh mallister in the Midfield obviously Curtis Jones as well so there’s no ball winning in this Li Liverpool Midfield that can stop uh Bournemouth um so for me it’s a pass quite frankly I think
That the numberers about right in terms of where the market is um but I do worry because you know we’ve talked about Bournemouth and this you know Wonderful run that they’ve been on well they’ve been also beneficiaries of playing a pretty easy schedule you know they’ve beaten Palace United Forest Fulham and
They lost 31 in tum in a match that was you know pretty even but you know they did get ripped apart for a couple uh easy goals there for Spurs and they did lose the XG battle so this is a good litness test here for Bournemouth of
Like how good are you truly are you the team that can compete can compete with Tottenham who’s like a top six top seven team or can you can you compete with Liverpool one of the top teams can you be like a team like brenford and Brighton and and actually compete with
The top sides we’ll see um but this is a good litness test year for Bournemouth But ultimately I’m right around where the market is so I have to pass yeah it’s very fascinating because you know Bournemouth did somewhat change how they’re playing a little bit they’ve been playing more long balls have you
Watched them against Tottenham like that was not a team like trying to play through a press that was a team like let’s just play over The Press and they they have been effective with it and I think it’s very interesting because you talked about it right like they smooshed
And just kind of beat up on a lot of bad teams but I don’t care what the schedule is if you’re plus one ex difference per 90 like that’s yep and and a 10- match sample that’s pretty remarkable for Bournemouth so you know did the market overvalue them at a certain point maybe
Is that the case here maybe but like like Liverpool goes to Fulham in the league cup like they’re lined pretty similarly right and like this I think the question here this has more to do with like what is Liverpool right now given their absences versus Bournemouth right so we saw the fa the
The League Cup match against Fulham they come out with that with that front three and and I’m gonna be honest like Diaz right now is just not really the same player since he’s come back from the injuries he’s not been very good not been very productive jot has been pretty good when
He’s on the pitch but when you play no solos no Trent and no Salah that is your three of your four most creative players in terms of creating for others not on the pitch Trent we all know I mean if you ever watched Trent play like yes he’s incredible in terms of his
Creativity his his connections on the wing his ability to play balls ping balls all over the pitch he’s one of the best creative players the prem’s ever seen he’s not going to play and if you look at the numbers he’s averaging 31 XA per 90 he’s completed 40 more passes
Into the final third than every other Liverpool player Salah and Alexander Arnold combined Salah is gonna lead the league and assist this year Alexander Arnold is this is the second by far in pass in the penalty area behind Salah so these are the two guys that make this
Attack go the third guy is Nunes and he comes on in the 55th minute 56 minute and he changes the game against Fulham he gets the assist that gets the first goal I know he missed a couple chances but he had four shots uh and an assist
And in 35 minutes against Fulham uh at anfield in the league cup so I think you know what does CL go with here as his front group because I think Nunes is the key I think without the other three guys on the pitch it’s just like kind of a
Mediocre attack and defensively the combination of van dijk and Kate is Elite when just one of them is out the fall off to the next guy is so big that I think that’s where you start to see Liverpool’s flaws without endos so uh I am very tempted by the under here but I
Think ultimately this one’s a stay away from me I’m excited to watch bouth against like a big big team a true top talent to see like if this long ball approach is effective uh in attack and and I you know defensively this is not the the best test because Liverpool is
Short-handed but it’ll certainly tell us more than the match against Fulham or uh will tell us so excited for this one but I I don’t have a bet here it’s a pass for me and for what it’s worth you know the last 10 matches bourou plus 89 extra
Difference per 90 Liverpool plus 1.15 they’ve actually been the top four in the last 10 matches you know we talked about the schedule caveats but City Arsenal Liverpool and Bournemouth have been the four best teams in the Prem in the last 10 matches so that’s a fun one
Excited for it uh I think it’ll be a good match Brighton and wolves Monday Night Football to round it out it actually pains me to say that I was playing guest the lines with treby on on Monday uh and and I had it up next to my projected number and I project
Brighton at minus 152 they are lined at minus 1553 at bet 365 as you record this uh I’m kind of just like in line with the market and uh the total do you want know what I bright that uh 151 minus 153 there you go so so I’ve got it at
152 you’ve got it at 153 bet 365 has it at minus 153 I don’t show value on any of the three-way sides here I have no particularly strong opinion on either Club as it currently presents total sitting at three which is right where I think it should be I thought maybe it
Would open high but it didn’t so for me I mean I have nothing on this what do you think uh yeah I don’t really have anything on this either it’s it’s difficult right because Brighton is we talk about how much depth they have in their attack and they do
But not having you know ad dingra Moma Fati uh even and ciso hasn’t been available forever like just not having all of those gu even s March just not having all of those guys available just it does have an effect on how Brighton can you know attack like they still are very
Very good but that the level that they can reach with those guys available is is pretty high up there um so they’re gonna face another low block here and that’s what they’ve been facing all season long like Gary O’Neal is gonna set his team up to just sit in a
Low block now wolves is going to be a little limited as well like they’re not they’re going to be without Xiao Gomez who’s been one of their better midfielders um All Season really good Ball winner um him and Mario lamina have been a really really good tandem um so
Not having one of those is going to be um tough obviously hang is off too afcon um but excuse me afcon Asian cup sorry he’s representing South Korea which is not in Africa um so there goes your you know most potent goal scorer uh and you know Brighton has been better at
Defending and transition so I like I have this right around where the market has it if anything maybe a little bit on the over but again if you account for Hawaii not beating there and how limited Brighton is in terms of what the level they can be in their
Attack I have to pass and it sucks because I really want to bet Monday Night Football because it sounds like a lot of fun like this is a really fun match to find out where these two teams are and the thing about wolves is as great of a job as Gary O’Neal has
Done like they are still a like minus six expect go differential team in the Premier League like they’re not they’re not this you know team like brenford or Everton that you know we talk about with you know so fondly like their underlying metrics are still not that great um so
That’s why they’re minus one you know 53 about 365 right now so for me it’s a pass um but just very interesting to see Brighton’s another team that could make the top four charge because if you look at where their injury situation is right now all those attackers I just mentioned
Are coming back right at the beginning of February so they’re going to have everybody at their disposal and they could really charge up the table and that fourth spot in the Premier League is let’s just say I think is wide open because I don’t really trust agree I don’t really trust
Aston Villa to hold on to the position at their end I think the top three spots of City Arsenal Liverpool are pretty much set it’s just who’s gonna get who’s gonna get to that fourth spot it’s it’s gonna be and I know one of these teams
Is gonna make a charge you know whether it be I don’t you know Newcastle is completely broken so it’s probably not going to be them but if you know Tottenham get getting healthy Brighton United’s starting to fall off like there there is a decent shot here
For Brighton to get into a a top four position which I think they’re nine to one I believe right now uh to get into the top four so maybe wait uh a week or so um on that one until they actually get everybody back and available but
We’ll see but yeah nothing for me on this match yeah they really could used those two points against West Ham that they definitely should gotten only one instead of three uh that’ll conclude the Prem the Prem will be off next weekend so we will not touch on it Wednesday but
They do have a midweek to conclude January midweek slate and then it gets hot and heavy for the Prem pretty much for the rest of the season so uh the January period it’s been a weird month you know we’re all betting afcon sweating out Zambia as we record this
Podcast it’s not going well either gonna talk avcon let’s do avcon now actually uh any initial thoughts from avcon uh it’s been yeah it’s been an interesting start to the tournament um you know I I think everything has kind of gone status quo except for Nigeria creating seven billion expected
Goals and not scoring against Equatorial Guinea uh missed five big scoring chances against them so that was fun one uh to start off on uh Saturday but you know going forward you know everything is kind of aligning with how I kind of pictured it in the beginning which you
Know it’s good after one match week but or the first round of matches we’ll see what happens after the second one but if you want a couple early looks you know if you know me and Anthony are always in the Action Network Discord Soccer Channel I’ve been uh you know giving out
Anything on you know looks that I have early in afcon so if you want any early looks for that you can you know be in the Action Network Discord but I’ll give out a couple right here for the next round of matches uh Nigeria Ivory Coast is playing Thursday at 12: Eastern time
Um that’s a great great match and I love Nigeria plus a half in that one they’ve they’ve switched uh to basically a 442 and they’ve said hey like we’re not good enough in the Midfield defensively to play expansive like free flowing football so let’s just play low block
Counterattacking and try to beat teams in transition which really is good for the personel they have with the the pace that they have going forward and it’s allowed them to have the second best expected goal differential over the last two years in Africa so I know I Coast is
At home but the IV Coast attack is extremely limited right now great Midfield and a great defense but if you look at the front three that they played against guine BAU it’s nowhere near some of these other top teams in Africa I love Molly again uh against Tunisia uh
The Tunisian team is very uh it’s not the team that you saw at the World Cup like it’s it’s it’s extremely limited they don’t have any of like the key players that they had at the World Cup it’s just a lot of guys that are playing either in Tunisia or not really playing
In one of Europe’s top five leagues so the market is pricing this Tunisian team like the team at the World Cup and they are just not and Molly looks great against South Africa so um projected them as a pretty sizable favorite so I like them and then um I was going to
Take Morocco against the Democratic Republic of Congo because um you know the Dr Congo is a very interesting team because they they have all this talents you know Chanel and bemba um yon weisa to name a few guys you know comparatively to lot those mid teams in
Africa like that’s that’s a lot of talent um but they’re underling metric have just been garbage over the last two years like they’re like a minus three expected goal differential but they are currently giving it to Zambia right now um so I have to sit back and say hey
Whoa you know what I was wrong uh so I’m not gonna be playing them um but I do like Zambia against um Tanzania who got beat pretty badly by Morocco today tanzania’s best defender got a red card um so they’re G to be very limited in their defense and projected Zambia
Around even money in there you can get them like you know plus 140 right now so um those are the three matches that I like for the next round of of afcon and no real strong looks in the Asian cup we’ll hopefully get some better matches
As we get to the round of 16 um but again you know you just have do you really want to lay with like Japan minus two and a half and South Korea like it’s just it’s it’s not that fun betting the Asian Cup right now um but afan’s been a
Joy as always and I’m looking forward to the next round yeah might bet some camera camon against Sagal we’ll see uh personally I was intrigued by Cameroon uh we talked about Sagal kind of being overvalued uh coming into this tournament and like you said you know we’re going from 24 to
Start the tournament down to 16 so the tournament doesn’t really get cooking until the Knockouts uh but Molly’s Molly’s the team that BJ’s riding with I know I think he also bet Morocco yeah I so the Futures I have right now are Nigeria 11 to1 Molly 25
To1 and then I have a parlay of uh morocc and Japan the two favorites to win their respective tournament which I think pays around 18 to1 so those are the three Futures that I have right now um I haven’t looked at the current uh market prices in terms of you know a
Conor asan cup but I assume they’re somewhere around uh similar to those numbers that you got pre-tournament so if you want to hop in now you can probably still get that partl at 15 to1 yeah has not been a seismic event no not really I mean just status quo
Although Japan did concede twice against Vietnam so so maybe we got sound uh Sound the Alarm Bells who knows all right let’s move on we got we got some Germany and some Spain let’s go to Germany first Bayer Leverkusen did it again they scored in 94th minute they did it I was
Going to cash an osberg ticket didn’t really deserve it necessarily I mean you know net net one nil probably a fair result uh Leverkusen deserving to win but I’m coming back to fade them again life sck draw no bet minus 120 at home uh to put a perspective just how much
The market has changed on these two teams this is the rematch of the first match week in Germany so this is match week 18 now we reset the cycle leig and Leverkusen played at Leverkusen the W was a pick them in week one match week one now it’s uh at liip a
Pick them and we’ve talked a lot about liip they’ve been a very fascinating team to kind of track throughout the year because I was quickly downgrading them downgrading them and saying you know this underlying numbers is really has not been particularly impressive and they’re outperforming their numbers by a tou
And they were running super hot to begin the season and the exact opposite has happened now where the last you know five six seven matches they’ve gotten back to that level that we expected of Rosa and leig and yet they’ve underperformed in the last you know six seven eight matches where they’ve
Dropped points in four of four of their last eight in the Bundesliga despite not playing particularly worse uh and now I’m kind of just thinking well maybe I should have just not overreacted too much to first part of the season when they were worse they did have a lot of changes in their
Personnel losing uh you know some key guys so they’re kind of learning to play with this new team and right now if you just go by season long expect a goal differential and you take out penalties uh these two teams are really not all that different now if you go back and
You include the data just from the second half of the season from last year when leig uh and lusen both kind of established themselves as the clear better team compar to Dortmund these two teams like Leverkusen has been like a tick or two better factor in home field though and I I make
Leic a more solid favorite at home um so I’m gonna take liic draw no bet minus 120 uh this Market should be a little bit more skewed toward leig I I think they should be laying about a quarter here so the fact that they’re only
Laying you know like a tenth of a goal puts me on leig at home in the uh the top Spiel of the German weekend yes speaking of Dortmund I actually like them on the road against cologne this weekend which is not a bet that I particularly uh excited about but
This has more to do with cologne than it does that has to do with Dortmund so first off you know Dortmund is obviously getting Sancho and Matson uh which is two great additions um for them and their offense uh you know they’ve been rolling with you know men and Fulk rug
Uh front two which has been you know around 04x she per 90 minutes which is fine like it’s not not horrible uh but it’s also not not great um but this cologne team has completely fallen off the cliff you know if you remember the last season this was a very underrated
Team that underperformed their underlying metrics they were actually a 1.14 non- penalty XG per 90minut defense they were really good and now this season they’re allowing over two non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes so what what happened like what what what changed now well Aliah shakiri
Left in the summer for Frankfurt he was just complete room ball stopping midfielder one of the best in Germany 135 tackles plus interceptions that was third best in Germany they also lost Jonas Hector to retirement he was even more important to their backline 151 tackles plus interceptions that was the
Most in the Bundesliga so you’re losing two of the top three ball Stoppers from last season in Germany and they have done nothing to replace them so teams are just playing right through them and now they’re sitting in the relegation Zone with a minus 16 .6 expect a goal
Differential it is really really bad right now so I predicted Dortmund North to minus 200 I’m not fond of their defense their defense is terrible they they can’t really stop anybody through the middle of the pitch but given the way given the attacking Talent they have
In their offense I like their offense is still top five in pretty much every category that matters so at minus 135 I think you’re getting a little bit of value on dortman here I don’t like the road form either but I mean this is this colog team if if not the worst the
Second worst team in the in Germany by a pretty wide margin so um Dortmund minus 135 on the road and this will I’m sure will not go uh badly for me yeah I mean Dortmund and mines have kind of been the taale of two stories right they’re both
On 11 points they both have terrible goal differentials but mines have just kind of run bad there’s no run bad in the cologne numbers they are that bad uh and like you said you know they have not really had like a consistent goal scorer either ever since selling mest they’ve struggled for goals
And they got away with it because the defense in the Midfield were pretty good now they’re just not so yeah leading go scor five goals kind of uh shocking that Schultz has kept his job but nevertheless yeah I I don’t know how he’s kept it at this point it’s just the
Hat you can’t fire a guy that yeah fire the hat right he also looks like a very difficult person to uh deliver bad news to yes for sure uh so sria uh you love you love these previously overvalued now you’re buying low on them oh yeah team you’re rolling with juvent
I mean who doesn’t love allegri ball right I mean it’s so fun to watch you made a lot of money allegri ball this year I know I have actually made quite on Sidelines um yeah it’s it’s I mean really what it is is just Juventus is like maybe the best defensive team in
All of Europe right now maybe outside of Arsenal and City 67 non- penalty XG per 990 minutes because they’re just they’re Elite in their low defensive block and this is something we mentioned last season they’re allowing the second most final third entries in Syria which is
Crazy for a team that’s in second place but they’re only letting teams into their penalty area 17 about 177% of the time once they end the final third like that is that is elite elite type stuff in terms of Defending Your Penalty Box and that’s why they’re only allowed 11 goals all season
Long and what has made them a lot better though especially this season is that lovic has had a offensive Resurgence you know he’s at a 62 XG per 90 minute scoring rate that is second best in Syria behind only lero Martinez at inter and obviously having cha healthy as well
Because you know obviously Juventus wants to be a more direct team they’re not a team that wants to build out of the back and play Slow possession like they want to play more direct then chesa is an unbelievable direct threat to deliver balls to lovic and they’re
Facing a leche team that honestly I loved last season but similar to like I said with cologne like they they’ve just completely fallen off a cliff and what’s happened is is they were this Elite pressing team that was great at disrupting buildup play and they’re still very high and very good in passive
Per defensive action they’re second actually in Syria but when the Press doesn’t hit home they are getting torched in transition L close to one and a half x per 90 minutes second highest expected threat in Syria ah so for a team like Juventus that doesn’t want to
Build out of the back they want to play transition they’re just going to send the ball over the top of the press this is a really bad situation here for leche so um I projected Juventus at minus 172 so best price you can find right now is
Minus 134 so I think there’s some value on allegri ball yeah I’m gonna bet Ur again I think I bet I am too by the way month uh Ur has 12 draws this season they’re like uh the Ted lasso in year two at AFC Richmond yeah all all they
Can do is draw and it’s kind of funny I mean so they they’ve built up this really extreme profile they’re they’re plus a half against Milan they have the lowest possession rate in the league and I actually think it’s correlated right so you know when they play worse teams
They’re not very good in possession and thus they struggle to get margin and and when they are playing better teams they’re very comfortable out of possession and nothing happens in their matches therefore they’ve had so many draws this team is averaging 1.15 XG per 90
And you would hear that and say man they really stink it’s actually like 11th in Italy yeah because Italy has been just diabolical way down years I used to lose money on unders in Syria and uh this year I wish I had been betting as many
As I used to because they have gone under under under over and over and over again the average shot quality is way down in the league all of this has just created kind of like a low lower scoring environment which is what enables a mid-table team to have 12 draws in 20
Matches and Milan this year not only have they had five penalties ur’s had the most penalties conceded in the Prem so or in in Syria so when you take out the penalties from their defensive numbers they’re actually one of the best defenses in the league uh so they’ve
Been a good defensive side from open Play Milan like Lea’s shot numbers are way down his ball progression and carrying remains very good but they’re getting fewer shots from giru and Lea P of 6’s been running hot and and scoring goals and doing a bunch for them he’s
Been good addition but they are not a consistent team they’ve set they they’ve had real defensive regression from what they used to be under peoli and I think it makes them more dangerous uh to get picked off here and so on the road I like UD at home back in them again we
Had them against uh Fiorentina we had them against what bolognia now I’m backing them against uh Milan as well I just love this team as a dog and I think they’re they’re very live to uh probably end up in a draw maybe just bet the draw but I do plus
Happ all right we’ll move on to Spain uh La Liga Best Bets BJ it’s a battle of two of the worst teams by the table in the league yeah and you’re fading kadis I tried betting them one time they got they got absolutely smoked you were right to not bet them until me
I shouldn’t bet them and I didn’t I didn’t listen and I was wrong so tell me why I should bet against them now and I probably lose again well it’s our boys from ales right who are you know the only team in the bottom half of La Lia
With an actual expected or positive expected goal differential because of how good they are defensively I mean they are number one in La Liga non- penalty spacal lab like think about that like how good that is comparatively to a lot of the defenses they have around
Them um they’ll be at home on and this is a Friday afternoon one as well so if you looking for some action on a Friday uh Cadiz dead last in shots dead last in box entries dead last in final third entries dead last in Progressive passes
Dribbles it’s uh it’s a very very bad offense um and they are the biggest split team in terms of Road versus home performance they actually have a positive expectable differential at home they actually are okay there but away from home they have the worst expected go differential in La Liga it’s around
Minus 14 while alase at home is performed very very admir plus 5.1 so um I predicted that base closer to minus 150 so best price you can find out there isus 1225 um for what is still the best defensive team a team that has only allowed 7.8 expected goals in nine home
Matches against a Cadiz team that in 10 Road matches has barely created six expected goals so um love Al of minus 125 yeah and I like Rio minus 105 at home against Las palas I think it’s the peak of the market on last palas where they’re being priced basically an even
Too which every don’t think they are uh but they’re getting some historically good goalkeeper production um which has carried them to this top half team I mean they’re dead last in xg4 uh and their bottom five uh in a lot of defensive metrics but they’re making it work because Alvaro Vias has been
Like lights out and it’s not even just that he’s elad in shot stopping right so he was plus four uh goals saved two years ago plus four last year in the second division they come up now he’s plus 10 this season which isane in half
A year he saved them over 10 goals he’s also good at claiming crosses he sweeps well uh I am shocked that he’s still here and I don’t think he will be very long because I think all of the top clubs are going to come calling uh any
Of the Smart Ones at least especially Barca Real Madrid at you know ATL has oblock but uh you know he’s mid 20s so he’s not exactly a young guy but all these top teams really should be calling especially ones that have goalkeeper questions at the top you
Know neer’s getting old I mean even brenford yeah um so I’m expecting a move for him but yeah right now I mean he’s putting up some ridiculous numbers uh only the three relegation teams been worse than last palas off the island they’re minus point8 XG difference per
90 again they just get bailed out because they’re goalie as good as he is there’s a limit to how much you can really run this good and so I think we’re the peak of the market on them I like Rio at home right around even money they’re playing Ona
Right now getting their butts kicked in the Copa del re but I like Rio coming back to the capital at home so give me Rio that’ll do it we’re not going to do an underdog parlay if I had to pick one it would be Ur at home against Milan maybe shefield
But uh leof is not here he’ll be back we’ll do the underdog parlay we’ll we we’ll resume that next week that will do it for this episode of wonder goal thanks again to our sponsors bet 365 we’ll be back on next Wednesday to preview the European slate there should
Be another uh shorter episode because there’s no Prem and then the Prem will be back again the following Sunday so thanks to BJ for joining me thanks to the listeners be sure to like review subscribe tell a friend and uh thank you again to the for listening to wonder
Goal and uh go bees welcome back Ivan Tony I
1 Comment
arsenal has very good talent but not quite enough to get past city.
City drools over saka, what wouldn't they give to get him.