Hello everyone welcome to the course of business forecasting myself pankas dat I’m a professor in the area of decision science and operation research at salesa School of Management it Bombay I have done my PhD from I Kapur and post doctoral research from epfl Swiss Federal Institute of Technology I have
Some post research experience also like insa visiting fellow at cultural Institute of Technology Germany and that visiting professor at humble University of barlin Germany I have more than 15 years of research and teaching experience so let’s come to the course of business forecasting in business forecasting what happens in the recent development of
Business analytics the content of Predictive Analytics and machine learnings are extremely important for analyzing the data their past behavior and making future decision of the organizations business forecasting helps managers to take F decision manage their risk and also rain the customers by analyzing the behavior or the purchase
Pattern of the customers it helps in many aspects of decision making a resource allocation optimization process of supply chain Etc through the understanding of Predictive Analytics models it also helps to capture the pattern the relationship or underlying factors of the data and business scenarios and it helps the organizations
To get insights and remain sustainable in the competitive advantages now if you come to the course outline what we are going to cover in different sessions or lectures of this course here I have listed now we’ll focus on Essentials of Predictive Analytics in detail and then we’ll understand the steps of data driven
Decision making and also the introduction of machine learning through two aspects unsupervised learning and supervised learning then we’ll enter into the qualitative aspects of business forecasting like consumer survey method we’ll study Salesforce composite where Representatives opinion will be taken into consideration and then you take the decision for future planning of the
Organizations and then we’ll discuss the committee experts or jury of experts opinion then we’ll carry forward the discussion to the most popular model or the superior model that is called dely method details of dely method we will study through case applications and we’ll understand how it works in the
Industry and why it is so popular in decision making this Delp method is not only relevant to the you know business forecasting it is also relevant to any strategical decision making any organization we’ll study that then we’ll enter into the quantitative aspects of forecasting first we discuss the time SE
Methods under that different models we’ll discuss like name method moving average method there will be different type of moving average method which will cover like simple moving average weighted moving average then exponential moving average which is very much applicable in the stock market say then we’ll discuss different type of
Exponential smoothing models like simple exponential smoothing then hold model if there is a trend in the data then how capture the trend of the data and you make a forecast then we’ll extend the concept to the seasonality aspects like how to calculate the index because in
India most of the data or the you know sales follow seal pattern so in that case how to capture the seal index and how to model it and make the forecast as per the seasonal pattern of the data you can look at the graph and Corners so
That type of aspects also will cover through winter hold medal then we’ll extend one of the most important time series models that is called multiplicative decomposition method which is very popular in Industry we’ll study that through Excel illustration then we’ll enter into the one of the most important topic or predictive
Modeling or machine learning that is called ARA model we’ll understand understand the SCF function we’ll understand the PF and auto regressive integrated moving average process in detail with illustration also will add one more New Concept that is called human judgment in times reach where you can capture the future aspects the
Contextual information of the event into your past data and you can integrate the you know data with the future contextual information and you can revise your forecast of Time series data and you can make a better decision making how to do that that aspects also will cover through human judgement in Time series
Analysis then we’ll enter into the causal models like regression analysis simple linear regression we call it as econometric models then multiple linear regressions then different mejor of accuracy process and also we will discuss some logistic regression models which is a very important aspects of machine learning technique under logistic regression will give different
Examples like you know dispersing of a loan to a customers in banking sector or Insurance sector whether the claim is a right claim or wrong claim will discuss all these examples through logistic regression models then we’ll enter the last module that is called the simulation methods which is a integral
Part of business forecasting and the decision making also so we’ll study the monteal simulation then the continuous version of simulation like System Dynamics and then also we’ll elate different case through risk analytics software that is called adri software I’ll bring that software and I’ll illustrate detail of that software
Through different case applications so that will be overall content of this course we’ll try to cover many other aspects through example of the case studies also and then there will be another question that once we learn all these methods so in which context what method to select so therefore these are
The couple of important factors like context of the forecast is very important in which context your case belongs so accordingly you have to select the appropriate model similarly relevance and the relability of historical data if you have a good amount of data with the completeness of
The data and accuracy of the data if you have perhaps you will be able to make better forecast then degree of measure of accuracy different type of you know measure of accuracy techniques are there we’ll study them also which will establish your confidence in selection of a model or making a
Prediction then time period to be forecast whether you want to make forecast for the short time period or long-term period that also very important in decision making you have to understand the data pattern and the requirement the organizations accordingly you have to select the model and then the stage of product life cycle
Is also important for example if you’re in startup so maybe in early stage you will have to make a different forecast or different techniques you have to select because risk is involved more over there and but if you are exist stage or growth stage of the company the
Start maybe you have to select a different model because risk has been reduced over there you might have more financial aspects now so in that case which model to select to make a better business planning then time ability for making the analysis also very important so all these you know couple of factors
Are very important in a selection of a model and how to create a mapping bridge between your case understanding and the application of the particular Predictive Analytics models this particular couple of factors will help you in understanding or enhancing your skill in making applications now when it come to
The application domain here I have listed couple of area like retail manufacturing Finance Healthcare Logistics Etc but these are not limited there are almost in every sector you can use business forecasting and Predictive Analytics modelings we’ll see different examples in different lectures as well as the assignments how different
Sectorial problem can be discussed and how you can analyze this particular data and make a better forecast through the contents of business forecasting now who can enroll in this course whether you are undergraduate students or postgraduate students to en your analytical skills or you know data different decision- making aspects or
Different Predictive Analytics models in your project application or the strategical decision making perhaps this course will be helpful to you and also if you’re are a faculty or say PhD students so in that case this cutting ede methodology that we’ll be discussing throughout the you know course may be
Helpful to enhance your knowledge as well as a teaching skill also and if you are belonging to the industry par it is one of the most important course to enhance your farm decision making skill as well as you know to remain competitive in the dynamic Market conditions so I hope you’ll enroll in
This course enjoy the course and learn different techniques of business forecasting in Predictive Analytics to enhance your skill and also for your career endover thank you and see you during the Course [Applause] [Applause]
1 Comment
waiting for this course ✨