The global economic centre of gravity has moved to Asia and by mid-century it seems very plausible to assume that China and India will be the world’s dominant economic powers, by size at least, alongside the USA. It has long been assumed that China would emerge is the dominant economy; though projections are being rapidly revised downward in the face of serious structural weaknesses.
China faces, in particular, a demographic constraint with a shrinking labour force. By contrast, the Indian economy is said to enjoy a ‘demographic dividend and is now widely expected to grow more rapidly for the foreseeable future. Inevitably commentators dramatise trends and the talk of ‘Peak China’ and the ‘Indian Century’ may be exaggerated or simply wrong. This event looks at the evidence of this reappraisal and focus in particular on the demographic contribution to economic growth.
More about our speakers and chair
Vince Cable (@vincecable) is Professor in Practice at the School of Public Policy at LSE. He was UK Secretary of State for Business Innovation and Skills and President of the Board of Trade (2010-2015). He was Leader of the Liberal Democrats from 2017-19. He served for 20 years as MP for Twickenham and retired in 2019.
Keyu Jin (@KeyuJin) is an associate professor at the Department of Economics, LSE. Her research focuses on international macroeconomics and the Chinese economy. She previously sat on the editorial board for The Review of Economic Studies, and is currently a non-executive director of Richemont Group and Credit Suisse.
Rathin Roy (@EmergingRoy) is Managing Director. of the Overseas Development Institute. His policy interests and research has mainly focused on fiscal and macroeconomic issues pertinent to human development in developing and emerging economies. He was formerly the Director and CEO of the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP) in New Delhi.
Alexander Evans (@aiaevans) is Professor in Practice of Public Policy at LSE whose career in diplomacy included being Director Cyber at the Foreign Office where he was the U.K.’s chief international cyber policy negotiator.
29 Comments
Biggest road blocks for India are the lack of good leadership + red tapes from local govts. Lack of good basic education + land reform.
The Indian gentleman that seemed so f*£ing pessimistic about India, didn't acknowledge the fact that these figures were never their in the prediction of these knowledgeable economists 10 years ago. Atleast not to an extent they are overall optimistic about India today. So, even though that man seems hopeless about our future, I think it's a projection of his own life experiences mixed with political bias ofcourse. Sort of shameful and hope others saw through him.
The audio is really bad
Peoples who keep posting up comparing India Versus China are ignorant or stupid as they never accept the fact of China 5X in GDP and 5 X their people earning differnces.
Please accept the reality and do not make fool of all indians and India. Latest report from IMF on China contribution to the world economy.According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) report in October, global economic output is forecast to expand by 3% this year, to which China is expected to contribute 0.9 percentage point, Barnett said.
He made the remarks at a launch of the publication in Beijing last Friday. The event was organised by the IMF Resident Representative Office in China and the International Monetary Institute at the Renmin University of China.
By comparison, the United States is forecast to contribute 0.3 percentage point while India’s contribution might be 0.5 percentage point, Barnett told China Daily on the sidelines of the event.
On 2024, China is forecast to contribute 0.8 percentage point of the 2.9% global growth, just under one-third and still higher than 0.2 percentage point of the United States and 0.5 percentage point of India, he said.
The WEO, published lastTuesday, has lowered the 2023 economic growth forecast for China to 5% from 5.2%, citing the pressures brought by the weakness in the real estate sector
India cannot even build enough toilet as a human basic right for his people as the link provide here {what a shame} #opendefecation.
Pro tip – Never ask an 'indian' scholar to talk about india who doesn't even live in india and hasn't probably been there since decsdes. They think they know everything but india because they're 'indian' but in reality they only have a distant half knowledge.
Satellite country light analysis shows the GDP is half of what CC claim. Need to redo economic analysis. Salt consumption indicates pop closer to 1 Billion so again basic fundamentals are wrong.
I dont think its a good comparison. Im no expert but i think the reason for Chinas sluggish economy have been due to the numerous sanctions slapped by the US which limited Chinas economic opportunities. If it were the other way around, China might have surpassed the US already. India on the other hand, being BFF with the west, is enjoying all the opportunities that it can utilize. However the game is not over yet, in my opinion, the game just started for China and they're not playing chess, their playing the game of Go
Thumbs up for professor Jin. The main media broadcast a common theme of China getting old before getting rich. They talk about the impact of millions of Jobs lost due to the rise of AI but discuss population decline in China as the end of China's industrialization. The 20% efficiency and the room to grow in efficiency is hardly heard. Thanks to professor Jin for giving me the complete picture.
This is NONSEN
There is so much western biases.
Better you guys focus on uk economy growing 0.5% than India & China.
Lol.. You never visited India, and you didn't crosschecked those data.. Just take off some data from internet or someone else, who may have their own view and propaganda..
And then you started to gave lecture on regions of shit
Fun fact: At $3 trillion dollars of GDP, the world's No.111 country on the World Hunger Index, the lowest GDP per capita country of G20, with a credit rating slightly above junk status at BBB-, the world's largest source of economic refugees, Indians are already so boastful and arrogant. Do you dare to imagine their arrogance if they're at China's current position of $19 trillion dollars, the world's largest exporter of goods, No.1 trading nation, biggest investors, highest forex reserves, the industrial powerhouse of the world?
Great talk! but Pleeeaase hire a proper sound engineer !!
This is typical. The Chinese person from America is putting a more optimistic case about future of China relative to the consensus forecast, while the Indian person is only highlighting the negativity about India, and therefore portraying India's future in very pessimistic terms relative to what is now universally expected.
Total BS I feel being an Indian as our cost of living far lower than any country even in metropolitan cities. This so called ex Indian is talking stupid mostly. He does not know current ground realities. He is disconnected from India.
Chinese data is not reliable. It has been inflated for years. Debt is understated. China everything is fake.
This is so interesting
Isn’t the UK & Europe both in Middle Income traps despite access to lower cost East European labour which is willing to accept work that the Western Europeans are shunning? With 0.5% growth UK is a basket case and these dons are in the typical “past is the future” mindset!!
Of all the BritCons British
conservative intellectuals, I have always found Naill Ferguson to be the weakest.
He's always comes across as a pseudo intellectual, pretentious, pompous, as someone trying to hard to sound like an intellectual, thinks too much of himself, knows little but advertises as if he knows more.
He says things not because he believes those things but actually tries to project his views as if someday it might come true, it's more wishful thinking than analysis.
He's mainly one of those British conservatives who thinks that the best way for British should approach it's relationship with USA is getting down on it's knees and sucking up to America as hard as they can "*Then America will be nice to you*" because they are satisfied with your work.
That's never going to happen America is the most selfish, narcissist country in the world. It's unusual to me how self centred Americans can be.
As Christopher Hitchens said once some people in America think that "They are not selfish enough."
America is a teenager among countries. America is a country with no civilizational history behind it. Basically America is a teenager ruler of the world like King Joffrey.
America is an Empire.
They don't like that word but it is apt for America.
America wants to be Captain America looks like Mr Bean ends up being Galactus.
They like to think of themselves as Captain America but they end up like Mr. Bean. Thier action ends up causing so much destruction that they end up looking like Mr. Bean but people give them a pass because "They went there with Good Intentions".
But at the end Galactus has to feed on everyone elses resources.
Captain America can do no wrong.
They can only be ill advised by the cunning Jewish advisor or the Ukrainian advisor.
Any Jihadi would be proud of American Foreign policy. This business of either you are with us or against us. It's so sinister.
For most Right wing Americans the world began in 1776, for the Left the world began in 1619 and they learnt mostly from the British Empire.
The best British intellectuals have been Christopher Hitchens, Douglas Murray and Peter Hitchens.
Niall Ferguson can be interesting sometimes but mostly he is disappointing. You can always count on him to give his opinion from a biased perspective and be a slightly dishonest and slant his opinion to suit a narrative.
(The same can be said about Fiona Hill) He also predicted confidently how Ukraine will win against Russia.
Niall Ferguson is the type of Buffoon that can go on to criticize Gandhi(which you can) but likes to suck up to Henry Kissinger and Rothschild for his fantasies.
But he's popular because he's Ayan hirsi Ali' husband.
Naill Ferguson is known for three things
1) Revisionist History of Britain
2) For being Ayan Harsi Ali' husband
3) Feud with Paul Krugman
very typical, a chinese american being very positive on china and an indian commie downplaying india and calling it intellectual discussion. commies have taken over media & academia in the west, they are hellbent on destroying the west from the inside
Rathin has done what any leftist done….diss his own nation. The Chinese woman has tried to hide the mess with lots of drama
Rathin Roy is very pessimistic about India. Fair enough. India will never grow at the rate China did at the peak of its boom. It will keep trudging along between 6-8 percent for a LONG time because its demographics will remain healthy for a LONG time, and because it will remain behind the technological frontier for the foreseeable future just doing simple and known things will keep increasing its productivity.
The most accurate quote about India is. " it keeps disappointing its optimists as well as its pessimists" . Rathin Roy will be disappointed too 🙂
Lse is woke, and THIS is expected from them.
INDIA Must be doing well we have anti indians on comment..throwing out shit comeing from there mouth..
Leftist leaders in India apoose manufacturing In India. Then Leftist Indian professors in the West call Indians sexists. We can't grow because Leftist still own Indian Institutions.
The Indian person is pleasing his British masters that English fellows like to hear. Fact is India will become 3rd biggest economy in next 3 years.
Keyu Jin shilling for the CCP again.