Phil Spencer is definitely an expert on properties themselves. Apart from being a former Chartered Surveyor, he’s an experienced investor and landlord.
But that doesn’t make him a macro-economist or housing market expert, and that’s why I think he should refrain from these articles.
This video is a pushback against the overwhelming narrative that the housing market isn’t in trouble, because that narrative puts more homes at risk if the market is worsening.
Acadata House Prices: http://www.acadata.co.uk/assets/uploads/2023/11/e.surv-Acadata-House-Price-Index-England-and-Wales-October-2023.pdf
My website https://mhwc.co.uk/
42 Comments
There already is a crash. Look around 😂
Television has been populated by the same 'actors' for decades. Most of my adult life in fact. The idea is that they become like our trustworthy best friends. National treasures as you say. Lorraine & any of the breakfast telly bunch, David Attenborough, Kirstie & Phil. Then their paymasters can use them to push a narrative or agenda to lead the public in a certain way of thinking. We saw it very clearly in 2020/21. Please keep doing what you are doing Charlie. Overpaying for property could destroy many people's lives – the younger generations haven't lived through that yet and don't seem to think it could ever happen 😢
Phil's obviously over leveraged himself Charles.. 🙁
Charlie …not "the data shows" ….say…the data show, they are plural
The 14 year property cycle. A crash is as certain as the Tides.
He and all his ilk said the exact same thing in 2008.
Saw a good point the other day, and it was that even if house prices stay the same, they’re still losing value due to inflation. So with the loss of purchasing power on top we’re probably right on 30% drop figure already. Inflation is the silent thief
phil spencer is also the boss of XBOX :))
The people need the likes of Charlie, because the game is rigged against the mass’s. Your work and knowledge is important for the vulnerable folk who are easily manipulated Charlie✌️🙏
As I sold this year and have been trying to buy, I can see the downward trajectory of house prices. We can't paper over the economic outlook when we are funding two wars. One thing that could artificially ramp up prices is desperate election saving government intervention but I think it's the other Uniparty's turn at the helm now so I don't think the Cons can salvage it. Just my thoughts 🤷♀️
The main thing that would give us peace of mind is being able to have a secure roof over our head. It will surprise many that the government do NOT want us to have that. They need us worrying about our daily survival so they can carry out their paymaster's agenda which is rapidly speeding up. That's why Thatcher was tasked with selling off council properties, mainly to Baby Boomers who were lucky enough to occupy them, making that generation public enemy number one, when in fact it's the government and their paymasters that we should be after. 😢
Haha that's mental – the comment you read out on the Phil Spencer post was mine! Avid watcher – keep up the good work Charlie.
Eagerly looking forward to listening to this one, is it going to be uploaded to Spotify? I can't find it on there
I think looking at the data, the (excessive) peak of house prices seen in 2022 will be knocked off and we will see a flat-line in house prices for the next year or so.
It would be interesting to know how many big new building sites that were about to be started have been stopped. I know of at least one, the sites that are doing the best will be part buy part own.
Toby Lloyd mentions the 3-4 times average earnings as the base line for reasonable house prices. Why is this multiple always quoted? thx
Very unlikely interest rates will return to .5%, why because it the poor state of the uk economy, while other European countries can increase inter state trade UK exports are struggling in Europe. This causes a balance of trade deficit causing the Pound value to come under a downward trend to stop the inflationary effects of devaluation INTEREST rates will need to stay higher. So 4 to 7% rates are here to stay, look what the wage to house price ratios were historically when these rates were typical. The hyper house inflation of the last 15 years is only possibly with very low interest rates and increasing values which protect the lenders from risk. Stationary prices increase the rush of lenders loosing money, falling values really worries then. So expect lower house valuations, reduced borrowing allowances, increased deposits. When the lender actually owns your house and it’s value increases it’s great for them a win win . When the house value decreases the lender owns that devalued house it an assets that worth less. Many landlords brought property with tight margins ie little scoop for interest rate increases the tenants can only be squeezed so much so expect more landlords to be selling if rates remain above 4%.
The lenders have a very serious vested interest in property prices maintaining, if they drop thats the collateral they are lending against and puts them at risk…. they've lent at low low rates and if property prices fall they end up making no margins on huge risks
Phil is obviously attempting to bolster his property portfolio and vast wealth at the expense of poor innocent people. It's just plain greed as usual. You must be cream crackered Charlie constantly fighting this BS. Keep going, you'll win in the end.
Very well done Charlie 👏. Exposing Phil Spencer`s obvious bias. He is effectively on The Take from various interest groups in addition to his own property investments, and his reputation and integrity will hopefully get their due.
Fact this year we saw the highest company insolvency, fact people are not paying energy services to highest records , fact people defaulting on rents, fact councils going bust , fact government is borrowing at high and beat record for extra borrowing. So if people think the " amazing Uk economy " is doing well they are insane .
Hong Kong is taking a drop on housing and they have a lack of property.
Phil's entire career depends on prices going up and the feel good investment fantasy, without it the views of his program would plummet. No one was interested in that twaddle after the late 80's disaster. 2007 doesn't count because of the massive intervention by people who should have known better. We have been set up for the most horrific crash, having experienced 1920s style hysteria, heading for 1930s style depression.
I think Phil's article was fairly balanced, unless you wanted it to be 20 pages. I wonder why you stopped when the article got to the credit crunch part? I mean, surely in your completely unbiased view, you should of addressed the full article. Especially such a valid point that goes against your theory? Surely….
Charlie, on balance I think you're 90 percent right apart from, the demand side hasn't gone away it's being held back by cost.
Which is not the same thing, because when interest rates do start to come down that pent up demand gets released, all of which is not good for a stable market.
Boom and bust is a nightmare for almost everyone.
Let Telegraph readers sort themselves out. 😏
“There’s no basis for interest rates to go down” – Only the forecasts of the Bank of England, other central banks and all mainstream commentators
Significant unemployment? Looks like Phil's been living in privileged wealthy bubble world for far too long. Look what's coming down the road in 2024…
Every County Council in the UK – and that includes the 14 bankrupt ones – will have to make 25% efficiency savings next year and where will those savings be coming from? Yup, cuts to workers at the top and at the bottom, so even fewer street repairs, park maintenance, bins emptied etc, but plenty of overpaid Diversity Sector Workers lording it over the few who remain, busy wasting what's left of the tax payers purse on painting virtue signalling rainbows everywhere instead of focusing on the important stuff. OK, rant over.
Hey Charlie I’m with you all the way everything is cyclical if you study house prices you’ll notice peaks & troughs…Simple newtons law what goes up must come down…….
And if anyone really watches your & Alex’s studies they indicate your both spot on.
Don’t get caught with your pants down & all the hyped up crap the papers print….
I 100% Believe in your analysis of the housing market. Unaffordable housing costs are going to continue through the next 5 years. Not just mortgages
"House prices are not going to come down" brought to you by the very same outlets that claimed inflation was transitory.
People really need to stop listening to the likes of the BBC etc
Main stream media cannot report the Israeli Palestinian conflict truthfully, the housing market is equally distorted. Bricks and mortar values may go up and down, but once your house is bombed. It doesn't matter if you own it or rent it. You are dead! 😢
Great analysis as ever Charlie
Phil will be there to pick up the houses of those people who took his advice. 🙂
With elections coming in late 2024 and early 2025 in the UK and USA, , governments will jack up the money flow and policies to ensure their trusted supporters continue to vote for them.
And those subsidies will convert into increases in land values until 2026, when they will peak.
House prices will increase by at least 20 per cent before 2026. The sharp crash 2026 will then result from the ideological paralysis that will inhibit government responses.
For the reasons Phil Spencer lists as reasons that prices won't fall, means that there should never have been house price crashes in the past! We've always been behind on supply and demand but that didn't prevent it from happening in the past! Etc etc.
Disappointed in Phil, he's looking out for his own interests in this. Abusing his position. If he was employed by the BBC he wouldn't be allowed to comment. Sadly channel 4 aren't so scrupulous.
The media never – and have never – report nor quote anything with the context that imparted information was meant.
Unless, of course, it fits the narrative, it is always manipulated.
The media have this great prediction on inflation levels next year and all the house price prdictions are based on this, but i do not think they have it right again, just like when they said inflation was transitory in 22 they are wrong again and there is a high likelyhood of a second wave of inflation that will push base rates up even higher (8%+) , the next 12 months is very dangerous as prices are not correct for the current interest rates and inflation risks imo.
Thank you so much, Charlie
Can any one tell me how you can value property in a currency which has no value
Really important vid Charlie, I hope it helps Ppl to look beyond basic headlines & consider the raw data instead. ThankU 🙂
Phil Spencer is 100% biased. He is essentially the voice for the money desperate to keep prices going up. LOL!
I have just watched this and get it. What about the "couple" you refer to who know right now that in 2 years time they won't be able to stay in their home as the fixed rate comes to an end. This is the problem with the world. How can they possibly know this and they have a massive amount of time to get it right rather than wallow ion self pity. Its ok to question Phil's positive slant but what about questioning the "wow is me " brigade!