Overanalyzing my setup before China to Australia

I’m currently in at the tail end of my 4th long bikepacking trip and I’m feeling a bit contemplative right now as I'm stuck waiting for two new wheels after I completely torched both of mine in Sicily.

Basically I’m in the midst of rethinking what I carry and how I ride — I’m by no means a lightweight Bikepacker (I’ve got a steel frame bike and everything all together is 88lbs/40kg), but I do try to not carry unnecessary items. I’m about to catch a flight over to China and ride thru the south and west up north to Mongolia, then make a decision if I’ll go westbound back to Europe or loop back south and go to Singapore or Australia. I really have no idea but I will definitely be biking for quite a long time and I’m running in circles mentally trying to optimize some parts that probably don’t need to be optimized, so I’m here to hopefully have some of you fine bikepacking people put me in my place.

My first four trips have been relatively low-stakes (i.e., always have an easy bailout) short trips:

Madrid to Berlin, ~1500 miles, 35 days

Osaka to Hiroshima, ~280 miles, 7 days

Berlin to Athens, ~2000 miles, 42 days

Around Sicily, ~1000 miles, 21 days

There are 3 categories of items I’m rethinking:

1. Shoes
   1. On all trips I’ve ridden with clip-in mountain bike shoes on mixed SPD/flat pedals, just carrying a pair of crocs for everything else. The mountain bike shoes are fine to walk around in but they’re objectively annoying for complete days off the bike and I’m getting kinda worried that I’ll lose my mind if I just have them for 8+ months of cycling, but at the same time I am undoubtedly more efficient and probably safer when I’m clipped in. So I’m having a tough time letting them go but also a very tough time carrying a pair of trail runners for everything else.
2. Cycling clothes
   1. I’ve also just used bibs and jerseys and I’m very happy with it in hot weather, but I kinda hate my thick long sleeve jersey because it’s so heavy and useless off the bike. I’ve also got some arm/leg warmers + a gilet to go over the jersey for slightly chillier stuff and got a Patagonia nano puff and Patagonia granite crest rain jacket for my jackets, but the patagonias are too stuffy for the cold but not freezing weather that the long sleeve jersey covers. I’m clearly overanalyzing the setup, but curious what people use for cold weather on the bike when a jacket is overkill
3. Rear bags
   1. I’m currently running the tailfin system with 2x 5L panniers, then 2x 5L ortlieb fork packs, restrap frame bag, and a front roll topeak. I’m packed to the brim everywhere honestly and I’m not sure my currently 2.5L water capacity is sufficient for more remote places. I’m usually staying in cities cuz I lowkey hate camping, but I feel like I could use a bit more storage, but idk where to do it. Seems like I should’ve gone for 10L on the tail fin rear packs, but at the same time, Im feeling silly because I’m basically just deconstructing 2x 20L rear panniers at this point but for 3x the price. 
4. Camping/sleep system
   1. I kinda hate camping but have a 2p Nemo tent and big Agnes sleep pad plus a quilt that are easily taking up 3.5-4kg of weight. My stats say that I only camp one out of every 8 nights when I have the opportunity to stay inside, but I know that’ll change out in more rural areas. Question is if I should just downsize to a more lightweight emergency option or drag this stuff around for the inevitable time when I know Ill need it.

Anyways, this is more of a ramble because I find myself overthinking and attempting to over-optimize a setup thats I’m already pretty happy with. Just dont want to get caught out in the middle of nowhere wishing I had thought of something else so yea.