Was Russia’s “Big Breakthrough” A Few Guys on Bikes?

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Has the Russian breakthrough in Pocrosk been contained or is it worse than anyone is saying? I’m Paul, US Army combat veteran. Let’s try to talk about what’s going on in this supposed Russian breakthrough in the east. Okay, so overall in the last 24 hours, at least according to Deep State, the Russians have not actually been able to exploit their breakthrough. Right, as you can see here, we’re looking at Russian advances. But what’s interesting to me is that the Russians almost are like back to running the playbook that they were trying to do earlier. So if you can see here, right, we talked about the fact yesterday that this Russian breakthrough is kind of bizarre in that the Russians have up until this point been very clearly trying to achieve the encirclement around Pocrosk, right? This is a substantial this is both a logistics hub for the Ukrainians and also a entrenched fortification, right? part of their uh fortress belt of urban areas that have been sort of formed a defensive line that Ukraine has invested a lot of money into reinforcing. But you can see that the Russians have been on this steady uh over the last I don’t know we’re going to say 2 months or so. You can see that they’ve been trying to create this encirclement around Pocrosk right here. We go moving forward in time. You can see that’s so clearly their objective, right? Is to sort of creep forward and create this pinser movement in the Pocrosk area. And then two or three days ago, the Russians, for seemingly no reason at all, made a hard right-hand turn and tried to thrust as deep as they could into Ukrainian lines here near VLE. And I think the the thing is it both exposed, I think, a failure of the Ukrainian leadership. I don’t think that’s a secret. A lot of senior Ukrainian commanders are saying, “Listen, we were not prepared for this. We missed this whole thing.” Um, but I think it also reflects the fact that Putin wants to achieve some kind of of symbolic win, some kind of battlefield success going into this meeting with uh Trump, right? And the interesting thing though is you can see again the last 24 hours there’s not really any reports that this breakthrough has been exploited any further. and instead even the Russians appear to simply be advancing in this kind of nan uh karivka area, right? They’re back to sort of trying to complete their pinser movement. They’re not even trying to exploit this because the two things you would see if they wanted to exploit it, you would see them go deeper in, which is probably not a great call given the uh the prevalence of fiber optic drones and the fact that logistic lines are really really challenging to maintain in this current combat environment. But what they would do, you’d think, is exploit uh kind of outward, right? They would try to consolidate their gains by making this more more solidified. So the fact that we haven’t seen either uh instead we’ve seen simply a Russian pivot seemingly back to some of these areas you can see here right um sort of viova uh nan karivka this is just not this is just not the actions of someone who really thinks they’ve achieved a major um operational or even strategic breakthrough and this is really kind of in line right now with what the Ukrainians are saying Um again the you know this advance was significant in distance right 10 km is is no joke. Um but as we’ve pointed out in other videos the uh gray zone the sort of no man’s land between the sides thanks to the prevalence of fiber optic drones is way deeper than anyone expected. Right? Remember when I was in Ukraine in November, you were looking at like a like a maybe I don’t know a 5 to 10 km kind of gray zone. Um now that gray zone is supposedly even deeper up to 20 km where basically no forces want to operate where Russian can’t really the last fixed Russian position is like 20 km from the fixed Ukrainian position and everything in between is just a drone kill zone. Uh, and the Russians are the ones who have to come out of their hidey-holes and push into the drone kill zone. Now, the problem is, of course, if they’re able to find a gap in the Ukrainian drone coverage, if they’re able to um, you know, if the Ukrainians sort of have one of those shift change failures, then you end up in a situation where the um, the ability of Russian forces to advance could be considerable. But uh you know these are small assault groups. These are tiny assault groups. Um and you know the taking a look here. Let’s see if I can uh find it. Right. Well they point out this is this is some of the analysis. Uh according to Zalinsky these are small groups of Russian soldiers sort of carrying out these advances mostly on foot and on motorcycles with no support from heavier armored vehicles. It’s not really an exploitation. He his statement is that quote some of these small groups have already been located some killed some taken prisoner and he said the rest will also be found and destroyed in the near future. Um again this aligns with everything we’ve heard from other reporting that these are small infantry units trying to conduct a sort of infiltration operation. Um bypassing a poor first line of defense and looking for footholds to launch further attacks. Um, but Ukrainian brigades, even the military’s top units, severely under strength in infantry thanks to a poor mobilization process and of course the fact that, well, it’s just really dangerous to be an infantryman. Um, as a result, you’re getting larger holes in Ukrainian lines, which Russian forces have sought to exploit with these small stealthy infantry assaults. Uh, again, chaotic is the word that’s kind of being thrown around, and I think this is true. Uh but again even is this really a breakthrough? Um and as they point out no one’s experts aren’t classifying this as a breakthrough. And I’m and I’m in agreement. I don’t think we’re seeing as a breakthrough because you need a greater concentration of forces to achieve a breakthrough. Uh so they just don’t have that right. These are these are small groups of infantry breaching past thinly manned Ukrainian defenses. Uh it’s not a rapid breakthrough. I think it’s just a function of this like ultra poorest um no man’s land, right? But they say this is this could be part of systemic problems within the Ukrainian military that simply have have not really ever come to fruition. Um and I I think that’s probably the best assessment and probably the most accurate assessment. Again, one other example here that I want to point out is that this uh article about Ukraine’s effort to create a drone wall. And the drone wall is the defensive network of drones and also sensors that’s less talked about um that Russia continues to right throw wave after wave of soldiers into suffering heavy losses. But these fiber optic drones uh are something that you know even the Ukrainians admit Russia can simply produce more of them. Russia is this is one of the technologies that Russia was actually first to field. Um right, even the early drones and literally just from 10 months ago um used commercial fiber optic cable, very heavy, very burdensome, very expensive and but these drones cost 10 times as much. But the math actually still worked out because um they were 10 times as effective relative to a jammable uh radio frequency drone. So the Russians actually were like, “Hey, this is worth it if we can make some economy of scale gains.” Now things have changed. The Ukrainians um were you know late to the game developing their own fiber optics. Uh but now fiber optic cable is so cheap. I mean we looked online. You can one go online on like an AliExpress and you can search uh drone fiber optic cable spools and you can see that you can get 10 20 30 kilometer spools weighing just a kilogram or two uh for you know a few hundred uh two or three hundred bucks and you put them on top of a of a $500 drone and suddenly you’re looking at an unjammable drone and it’s only going to cost you know not the $5,000 it initially cost but the uh you know a few you know twice maybe three times as much as a radio frequency drone but that FPV drone is unjammable. So unless it gets literally shot down uh it’s going to be uh effective right and so these fiber optic drones of course deployed by Russia have actually been somewhat effective at um sort of evening the odds of the drone battlefield. Uh again as they point out fiber optic drones uh the same tactics are being replicated across the front. These are Russia launching rapid motorcycle and buggy born assaults, putting pressure on Ukrainian flanks, attempting to encircle Ukrainian defenders and fiber optic drones to degrade Russian logistics or Ukrainian logistics and vehicles. Um, even Sears admitting that Russia has the advantage in the fiber optic drone race in quality and range and application. Um, in part because of course China, the manufacturing hub of the world, is selling these drone parts to Russia. Uh so again, we’re going to keep you guys posted. Obviously, as I’ve said before, um the the issue is that uh true information is hard to come by, but if this were a true exploitation, at the very least, the Russians would be calling it that. And the Russians themselves aren’t calling this an exploitation or a breakthrough. And so, I think it’s really really easy. Um, I can I can feel pretty confident that if the Russians don’t think this is some kind of big breakthrough, it probably isn’t. Um, but again, we’ll keep you guys posted as we learn more. So, be sure to hit the subscribe button and I’ll see you in the next