Thanks to Baker Tilly for sponsoring The Butterfly Effect!
https://www.bakertilly.com

Merchandise, event info, and more: https://hornercyclingfoundation.com

Follow us on Strava:
Chris: https://www.strava.com/athletes/670982?oq=chris%20ho
Garrett: https://www.strava.com/athletes/135875030

Arma Products: https://armasport.com
Use code “horner20” at checkout

Support the channel: https://www.patreon.com/chrishorner

Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/hornerakg
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hornerakg

Filmed and edited by Garrett Horner
Garrett’s Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/garrett.horner
Garrett’s TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@garrett.horner?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc
Garrett’s YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFh0qOM-Z5R-wQNqR3ydWyQ

Welcome to Beyond the Coverage. I’m Chris her. Today’s episode of course sponsored by Baker Tilly that sponsored every episode of the butterfly effect and beyond the coverage for the tour to France in 2025. Today is the first vacation day for the riders of the 25 to France. So that means it’s Monday after that spectacular race around the Shams and up Montrad there as we saw a spectacular stage 21 that Walt van top won and toppled everybody there. Now we go into Vizmissa bike Jonas Vinoso’s interviews after the tour to France. I want to cover their team and talk about Yonas Vinigo’s post interview after the tour to France where he tries to explain why the tour to France did not go so well for him. And he did say in there that he saw some of the best numbers that he has produced. So there’s a little bit of sunshine, but he had some bad days. He explains that it’s the bad days that cost him the to France. I believe when you’re looking at Vismalisa bikes like Jonas Finneo, it’s the not exceptional fantastic days that lost him to tours. So you can look at it other ways. You can look say just like Yonas fin with the three stages. As we started looking at the individual time trials where he lost a minute and 10 seconds thereabouts to Pogy and he lost another 30 sec 36 seconds up the uphill time trial that that put it at almost 2 minutes and then you start looking at 2 minutes and 10 seconds on Odiccom. I mean, we’re talking almost four minutes right there. But four minutes is still doable time if you had some exceptional day at the tour to France that caused Tad Pagotch to blow up spectacular like we saw in 2022 when we went up cold to granon and he just fell apart. Now, I explained and I’ve covered that video many times. It’s a spectacular video. I mean, it’s the video that gives and keeps giving when you’re talking about making content up on Beyond the Covers. But that day I told you that Pogy had just bumped. And why did he bunk? Well, we go up over the climbs when it was all said and done and you’re coming down in the valley when you’re coming off cold the telegraph and you’re coming down into the valley. You know at that moment that Pogy was isolated. It gets a little bit stressful if you’re typer to understand that you got to start putting in some calories. His teammate Raphael Micah didn’t come back in the picture till close to cold the gran starting proper and pogy bonks while going up the climb. Lost some time there. got behind the race leaders yellow jersey and then he started have to get into panic mode and making up time. But in 2022, Pogy did not have an exceptionally strong team. In fact, it was falling apart at the seams. It started falling apart from stage one even when they had to rotate riders out of the rotation there, the team rotation when they had to bring in Mark Hershey was just coming off of COVID, so he was under and then riders were having knee issues. They were crashing. Solair was sick. The team was falling apart. So Pogy had no help to put pressure on Yonas Viggo, so he had to do it himself. Yes, I know Brandon McNoltei did some spectacular rides in the mountains, but in overall in general, he didn’t have that super dostique. So Vizmissa bikes, Jonas Fingo, when we start talking about the 25 year, the biggest problem they had is they were always trying to isolate TD Paga stage one splits with 20 kilometers to go, 40 riders going up the road. Visma Lisa bike’s driving it on the front, but Pokei’s not really working all that hard. Todd Bagotchar is back there having rotating through, but having a good time basically. Yes, at times he’s isolated throughout the 25 to France. But the problem with isolation that a lot of commentators don’t tell you or a lot of content YouTube people like myself, I like to tell you that it’s not just isolation. Isolation is just the first part of a two-part problem that you have to get through. First you have to isolate a rider like Todd Pagotcha which Vizmissa bike had made happen throughout the 25 tour to France. But what they didn’t do is the next step which is really important. I told you the next step on beyond the coverage the week before the tour to France started is the most important step. You have to get tagar on the front at some point in time for a substantial length of time. That’s where Viz Malisa bike failed. Yonis Vineo of course with the three days of bad form and then the zero days of spectacular form at the Torance is another hit there for Vizmissa bike but in general Yonas form at the 25 to France was solid I mean not spectacular when you compare Yonas to Yonas in years past but it was still solid that if their team had gotten Pogy isolated if he had had some bad luck if he had had a mechanical if he had crashed somewhere Yonis Jonas wins the tour to France. I mean, he’s second on the general classification when it’s all said and done. So, you don’t have to be too brilliant to understand that once Pogy is isolated, if he has some bad luck, they win. But if you can’t have bad luck to tell you, if he doesn’t forget to eat, if he doesn’t crash, if he doesn’t of course have a mechanical at the wrong point in time, getting him isolated will not do it for you. What that first week of racing did at the 25 to France for Viz Malisa bike racing way too aggressive. What that did is isolate Pogy and Yonas Venigo on first and second of the general classification. So they did isolate but they isolated the two guys on first and second on general classification. Then later when we start getting into the second and third mountain stages of the 25 to France when other riders behind that would have been a threat on general classification such as when Lipovich was going up the road and he’s attacking Pogy didn’t panic. Now if you’d have taken 2022 and 2021 Pogy he would have panicked. Tad Pagotcha UAE team members would have absolutely had panicked when Lipovich was going up the road and Todd Pagotch was isolated from the pace of Vizmissa bike on the penultimate climb on that stage when Lipovitz attacked and went up the road. They may have even panicked when it was Jorgensson going up the road with Ben Oconor at that moment with Ben Oconor, Rubio and Jorgensson going up the road. In the old days, UAE team members would have panicked and Todd Pagotch would have followed that move. But I told you guys on beyond the coverage before the tour to France started proper that Pogy that we’re seeing here in the 25 season does not fall for those tricks anymore. So we go back to the first week where Vismissa bike overextended themselves and isolated on the general classification two riders first and second. That means Jonas sitting second on the general classification. He has no help from any of the other teams. He needs help from the other guys on general classification when you get into the first mountain stages. And once Remco Abnipool blew up and dropped out of the tour to France, that took away that other rider that could have put pressure on Po Burgotar back there, but instead he dropped out. Now, now we’re isolated two guys on the general classification. So Pog is wise enough now at his age to understand that all I got to do is follow Fis Malisa bike. You want to send Jorgensson up the road with Ben Oconor and Rubio from Moyar? Go ahead. Lipovich wants to attack up the road. Go ahead. Let him go. Let’s see what Jonas is going to do while Lipovich is going up the road. So Pogy just sat back there on Yonas Venigo and rode into the mountain stages with Vizmissa bike pulling him around. Now again, when we start looking at the interview, the post interview from Jonas Vigo talking about he’s seen his best numbers. Well, I’d like to see what those numbers are and compare them to myself because when you look overall, was Yonas good? I already said he was good. He was second on general classification. So, he was spectacular. And a shout out, a tip of the hat right here on beyond the coverage to Jonas Vigo because without Yonas Vigo, this race would not have been as exciting. So, I love that Yonas Vigo comes into the tour to France with this kind of form. But tactically, it would have been wiser to go through that first 10 stages of the tour to France, keeping all of the general classification riders as close to first place on general classification as you possibly can because of your Vizmissa bike. That means you don’t have to race the whole first 10 stages, the first week of the tour to France difficult wise. Hopefully, you have all the guys on the general classification a bit closer, but instead you have Simon Yates that gets split off on stage one. So they’re losing guys on Vizmissa bike to be able to attack Teddy Bagotcha. He doesn’t care if you’re going to isolate him and not actually get him in the win. So the biggest problem when we look at Yonas VGO again is that they don’t understand tactically where they’re at. their tactic that they employed employed throughout the tour to France of pulling Todd Pagotch throughout the first 10 stages and a bunch of stages after the first 10 but especially through the first 10 was that unless unless you are better than Tad Pagotch it doesn’t do any good to go into a mountain stage and pull the best climber in the world that has better formed than Yonaso the only thing that can possibly do is then you have to hope for Tad Pagotcha to have some kind of mechanical sickness or something like that to come into play. Some bad luck basically and that never happened. So the biggest thing when you look at the interviews is you got to remember that the not exceptionally good day is why Jonas Vigno lost the tour to France. Yes, the three bad days helped him lose the tour to France too, but he never had a day where he outperformed Tade Pagotch throughout the 25 to France. And in fact, if you want to go into all the final mountain stages, it’s only the last mountain stage where Yonas Vigo put only a few seconds in the tide because of course he knows he the race is over at the 25 tour to France. He doesn’t have to follow Yonas on that final mountain stage and he gives him a few seconds to go up to the line. But other than that, Tad Pagot was never a threat. One last thing before we end up here on Yonas Vigo’s post interview here when he says that, well, okay, his numbers were the best. They may have been the best, but he didn’t post them up. But if they were the best, the other thing that we don’t know about Tad Pagotch is that after he gets himself four stage victories and we come into the final week of racing at the Tour to France, Pogy knew he does not have to race every summit finish all out and he does not have Almeida with him. If UAE team emirates still had Almeida that crashed in the first week on the Murdan stage down the backside, if he had had Almeida still, we may have seen Tade Pagotch win in two more stages no problem and we could have possibly seen something else happen even on the final day of the Shams if the whole team was a bit fresher. But the whole team when we started on stage 21 was completely different team because we know Tad Pagotch was isolated coming into the final laps there when they had to go up Monontra there. So we go in so we go into that mind of thinking you got to believe that Tad Pagotch could have gained even more time on Yonas Venigo if he absolutely had to but he was never put under pressure. So it’d be a mistake if you’re Viz Malisa bikes Jonas Viggo to think that wow I only have to be a little bit faster and then I could be up there with Todd Pagotcha because we don’t know exactly how good Todd Pagotcha could have been because he was never put under any stress at all throughout the 25 tour to France. Okay, I want to cover one more thing with Vizmissa bike. I want to go into WOW man art on stage 21. What happened with the big guy? Had he come in to stage 21 and put on such a show? You know I love the big guy. I have number five on my top first page and there’s only six writers on my first page. Pogy, Primos, Roglish, Yonas, Vano, Rimco, Evapole, and Wow Vanard. And then Matthew Vanderpull. I know you guys are going to leave me some hate stuff there with Matthew Vanderpool being six, but I take Wanard over Matthew Vanderpool every day of the week. Although I would love to have Matthew Vanderpool, don’t get me wrong. And Matthew Vanderpool keeps getting sharper and sharper with his skills, especially his leadout skills to Yasper Phillips. But we’ll stick on Wel Van Art for the sake of this video. When we go into stage 21 and we see Tad Bagar lighting up the the race there the first time up Monontra there, we know that he splits it to a group of about 30. When they’re doing the final circuit, it’s about 17 km long. So they got about 17k to come around before they come up the climb again. And Pogy is getting aggressively attacked, but the group of 30 is holding everything together. We come into the six the second time up the climb and we know Pogy splits it again. We got six riders in the front group. Now when we see this front group, the biggest thing you got to pay attention to is that Pogy is having some help from all five riders in that group of six. They all have to rotate through with Tidy Pagotch at this moment because the group behind of about 25 riders is chasing full gas back there to try to bring them back. So they can’t play any games with Tad Pagotch while they’re doing the 15 kilometers of the course there before they come back up to Mantra. When they get near Mantra, we start seeing that it’s Jorgensson throwing in some attacks and playing some Saturn situp tricks back there with Tad Pagotch and making him earn earn to stay in the front group as Jorgensson’s throwing attacks. I told you guys on the butterfly effect, I didn’t like these attacks. Now everything in cycling has tiny little moments that can change whether or not if I accept tactics like them or not like them. When we look at that final lap there before they come up the the second to last time there we know that like I said all six worked together they can’t attack before and where they are attacking so close to the climb starting again. I don’t like that tactic because we know Jorgensson and we know Walt Van Art who is a sprinter were capable of following Pogy the lap before. So that means if you’re coming up to the final climb here with those six riders and you’re so close to the final climb and you see Jorgensson attacking four different times playing games, attacking three times, one time playing some games off the back where he’s separating Pogy from the back of the group. So letting the four go up there and Pogy has to come around. But he also spent one kilometer on the front. Now when both riders went over the top with them the climb the just the pass before if you think about it if Pogy attacks going up the cl the climb the final time of man Montra well we already saw well stay with him and we saw Jorgensson stay with him. Now you come in the last time you don’t know exactly how Tad Pagotchar’s form is but we know he’s the number one ranked rider in the world. We know he’s a four-time tour to France champion. And so you would expect when he’s going up the climb, he’s going to ride into the climb and up the climb, which does what? It puts Tade Pagotch on the front of the group. It allows Walt Van Art a few hundred meters before the climb to sit on his wheel. And if Jorgensson had come into that climb, possibly the pace is just a tad bit slower, which allows Jorgensson and the big guy Wenard to be completely rested. Whenever you’re a big guy the size of Walt Vanard and a classic specialist, you can never be afraid going into a cobblestone climb with fresh legs, especially against a rider as as the size of Todd Pagotcha. Now, we know he’s taught Bagotcha. I’ve said it many times, but if you go into one climb early in the classics, if you go into two climbs early in the classics, you go into three clims and you’re only racing for what, 50 miles, then you got to believe that W Van Art is the stronger of the two riders. And of course, we know Talia Bagotchar had to do a bunch of the climbing stages following Yonas Fingo. So when Wout comes into that climb, I would have been happy starting that climb with W and Jorgensson since starting as fresh and relaxed as you possibly can. and then hoping to follow the wheel of Pogy going over the top. Now, of course, we saw Wan Art attack, drop TD Pagotch going up the climb and then solo into the stage, which remember if you go back to my tactic, not having Jorgensson on the front. And again, if you could attack earlier on that circuit, I’m okay with that, but the group behind’s too close. So, when you’re attacking going up the climb, you have to make sure your legs are something especially good. And we saw that W Vanard was as he dropped TD Pagotcha going over top and then soloed and won that stage. So did we really see Wanard’s level come up to what we have seen in years past especially when we’re talking about 22 to France? I’m not so certain and it’s too difficult to tell. Could be that Pogy’s legs had come down but if we look at that stage there was lots of times where Tai Pagot was being careful through the corners open up gaps that means he has to spend a lot of energy to close those gaps. I agree with his tactic. Open up the gap. Stay safe. You’re wearing the race leaders yellow jersey for the fourth year. You’re going to win it. So, I agree. Spend some energy. Go safe through the corners. Close it. But it’s costing him energy. And when we look at Walt Van Art having extra strength left at the end of that stage, they dropped Tidy Pagotch. You got to understand that it’s really only about 80 kilometers of racing, which is about we’re call it 50 miles of racing. So a big guy like Wild Van Art would not have been as fatigued from this stage as a writer like Ta Bagotcha that was closing all those gaps back there. Anyways, when it’s all said and done, we’re not certain. I personally cannot tell you if Walt Vanard’s level has gone back up to that something extraordinary level again or if it was just the fact that guys it was a short stage. And when it’s a short stage and a short classic stage, it’s always going to benefit a writer like W Van Art over a smaller size writer like Totty Bagotcha. Either way, it was a spectacular racing and the sprinters may never get a sprint stage again for stage 21 of the tour to France. If it’s up to the organizers and the fans that are watching stage 21 because it was magical day. Congratulations, Wild Van Art. Fantastic. Jonas Figo, you know I love you. If you weren’t there, there would not have been as exciting tour to France as what we got to see in 2025. So like and subscribe, guys. I’ll see you guys on the next Butterfly Effect or beyond the coverage real soon.

Share.

33 Comments

  1. 𝒗𝒊𝒔𝒎𝒂 𝒅𝒊𝒅 𝒏𝒐𝒕 𝒈𝒐 𝒘𝒓𝒐𝒏𝒈 𝑱𝒐𝒏𝒂𝒔 𝒘𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝒘𝒓𝒐𝒏𝒈 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒊𝒕𝒕

  2. Visma lost it on stage one. Although those first 10 stages were much more exciting than anticipated because of those tactics they cooked their team rather than letting them get their race legs ready for the big mountains. They wont admit it either but Matteo and Jonas cooked the first TT because they busted a gut the day before. had they just been chill it might have been a different story. if the team was fresher then the tactics for hautacam might have made more sense. Even is Jonas didnt drop tadaj but had kept in his wheel and they were arguably close enough for it to make a difference when they hit the mountain TT its a completely different ballgame, but any pressure put on the last 8 stages you can argue was actually put in the visma team themselves. Tadaj was already well ahead by then so it was all just fun for him. had the difference been less than a min 1/2m the tactic of wearing him out enough to get over the line jsut a bit ahead could have made the difference. I didnt think he'd ever be able to drop tadaj and leave him in the dust, but a few seconds here and there, and importantly the bonuses could have got them over the line. potentially even could have made for a stage 21 showdown. I guess we'll never know

  3. It was my feeling in the first 10 days, that visma were trying to attack pogis strengths with Jonas’s weaknesses. What I mean is there was so many classics style stages and pogi is a top 2 classics rider with van der poel and Jonas doesn’t even race the classics. Other than the odd entry here and there. To me it felt like challenging Mike Tyson to a boxing match. If Jonas believes his strengths are in the super hard long climbing stages, then do everything in your power to get to those stages on even time. I know tadej is a bad boy and he’s stupid hard to beat right now but he’s human. Maybe it’s just me but I would’ve laughed my ass off at the guy who said let’s push this 9 time monument winner on these classic style stages to fatigue him a bit. Jonas should’ve spoke up because I don’t think he ever could’ve liked that planning. But he does seem like a very team oriented guy so who knows🤷‍♂️. I seem to always hate the way visma races but their thoroughbred horses seemed to find ways to bail them out. Those horses are aging now.

  4. I don't think Visma can be accused of having a bad tour!…… 2nd GC, 2 stage wins inc. champs! team comp, yes they weren't dominant, but that's good for the race! … and they have TP to contend with and he's just the best all round rider ….facts, yes, you could beat him with team tactics….but your team has to be a level above but UAE/Visma are on par, so it's difficult to isolate AND get him working….. he is also a more mentally mature rider, so he didn't do the ego-based blowups.

  5. If Jonas would have tried to make up time in the last 2 weeks, then each of those attempts, Pogacar would have won the Stage.

  6. I hope for future stage 21 routes that they go back and forth, always finishing on the Champs of course. Do one year the sprinters get to have fun, the next year the classic/gc riders. With the caveat that they treat it like they did this year, even without rain, that with 50k to go the times are locked down. Make it even more so about the glory of winning a stage on the Champs-Elysees.

  7. Vingo is wrong. Chris is right.

    After the Dauphine it was 100% clear Vingo cant beat Pogi on an terrain.

    The only chance to beat Pogi would have been risking place 2 on GC. Visma should have never worked a single meter in the first 2 weeks AND let every other gc contender go. Thats all UAEs job.

    Dont isolate Pogi by getting rid of every other gc contender. 1v1 Vingo has no chance. And no other gc riders were a threat in week 3.

  8. Visma's superdomestques were nowhere to be found for most part of the tour.
    But, as Vinge wasn't in the best form of his life either, it didn't really matter anyway

  9. Visma should replace management.. but they will not due to last day win with Wout Van Aert. So my question is: If results shows progress then why is there not a Major shakeup with Manager or with team members? Plus will there even be an Visma ? Manager from Visma told everyone he had the best team results did not show them as best. EF (underdog) had just as many Stage wins.

  10. I thought this was a fatastic Tour, thanks to the french team that came up with the stages. It never became exiting about the top spot though, which was a huge letdown. Jonas was never close to challenging Pogi. I'll give it an 8/10, because there was lots of other riders and moments that made this year great. No danish wins this year. Also a bummer..

  11. I don't mean to take anything from Pogacar – he is the best. BUT… VLB and JV lost the Tour in the first week. The only think VLB should have been doing the first week was riding to protect JV and save his energy for the first time trial. Not only was JV working too hard before the time trial but the rest of the team ended up not being much help in the mountains. JV was repeatedly left isolated with UAE in the mountains!

  12. Chris, when are you going to become a directeur sportif, I think you would have made a very good one. Or atleast in an advisory or strategist role. Like this post if you agree.

  13. I observed fatigue in the top 20 as I have never seen before. I have the energy gel nutrition leads to 3rd week fatigue theory. Of course between 1903 to 2007 The Tour was not as clean as it is now. You cannot use events before 2008 as a reference point.

Leave A Reply