Jens Voigt Predicts Tour de France 2025 – Vingegaard or Pogacar?

Full video: https://youtu.be/DjTT6OlQcLg?si=t73dCLjl291g2_uJ

Collaboration between @thecyclingdane and @OwDoCycling

Spotify podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/01cFTZuV5Yr82RmUa65b94

i was going to ask you about this as well before I ask you about your prediction for the tour Why have we not had a tour to France winner from France since burn
cycling has well simple answer and it’s a hard and uh honest answer simply because cycling has changed and French cycling has not changed quick enough or drastically enough There’s talent there but they caught in the old French way of doing things It’s tradition and it gives you a lot of security and safety You know always what to expect There’s never be a bad surprise but there’s also not a good surprise You know like your sport director your team leader comes and goes “Hey I did this for 15 years as a pro cyclist and for the last 20 years as a sport director I did like this and we keep doing like this.” And then you finish four to 10 You cannot win You got to adapt to modern cycling or you stay where you are That is one problem Another problem is that if I’m right only in France every rider has to be employed Right so with social security retirement pension form and all that health insurance everything So in order to sign a rider like Talibuga for a French team let’s say he wants 5 million on his account right in a team he is now he gets 5 million If he wants to go to a French team or a French team wants to sign him they got to pay 8 million so that he has 5 million on his account because he’s employed So they got to pay health insurance in percentage of his income taxes all that because he is an employee of the team So that makes it so much more expensive for French teams to have a bigger name than for um countries they have a different rule or different uh setup where writers are self-employed or go via image contract Uh so and so on That’s another reason why it is super hard and expensive to hold a talented developing rider in a French team or to buy a big rider because you need to pay so much more on top of it because your social charges are so much um higher But then again you’re from Denmark you probably know about high social charges and high taxes and all extremely high taxes
Mhm
Yeah I thought you’d be the right person because you’ve written for a French team Okay Y uh 2025 tour to France What is your prediction for well not just the podium but also I would say best sprinters as well and each of the jerseys each of the jerseys Um okay well the thing everything looks now it’s still going to be Tacha right I mean he had a relatively modest time trial in the Dolphin I wonder why what that was all about I mean he still did a good time trial but for being tad Pogacha the time trial was modest or or even average you have to say But it’s 3 weeks There’s a mountain top time trial He got a strong team He is coming out of a long training period after the one league classics he did So now he got this one block of of stage racing in his legs So he’s only going to go better I believe uh the odds are in favor for him Second Yonas again probably a lot closer than last year I don’t see Tatty winning six stages again in the total frunks So Yonas a lot closer Third place Third place I don’t know just wishful thinking I go Ben O’ Conor I cannot pick the same podium like last year I mean it’s
I thought you were going to say lip a bit Ah he’s still too young I mean three weeks to the frunks it’s still different right and I’m not sure if Gorgage is riding or not so I go Ben Okconor the guy was what second in the world championship last year uh he was strong in the welterpa so I believe he he got a chance for last podium spot
who do you think will be the best sprinter as well the best sprinter will be Milan he is ready he is prepared all season long it was key for him no joy Italia all for the tof francs They want to win stages Not necessarily take the green jersey but win stages So I believe he will be not not like M Patterson go in breakaways to pick up points in the middle survive the medium hard stages and all that Uh I think it’s spectacular sprints or 150s right so the green jersey probably I still see with Jasper Phillips but the best sprinter will be Yonatan Milan Tim Muria doesn’t tempt you or binium Gay No no no I go Yeah I I think I it’s Yeah it’s it’s it’s Philips He’s just reliable He knows how to how to do it well Binyam Gimme he did the green jersey last year So yes he knows how that works as well But um yeah with Binyam I believe everything has to become together really perfectly preparation the racing stages uh the team the team support that doesn’t happen every year and Yes Phillips and his team they know how to work it Um so I believe he is the man for the green jersey Um the white jersey is Yona still able to get it no Then I guess it’s Auzo I’m not sure Auzo is going He’s not Maybe not in a tour
No Oh wow Well then um it’s not the to France Um then I believe a user might be in a different team next year I see a little bit of unrest and unhappiness there And you see a one bad apple ruins the whole basket of it So if a writer is not happy and he is just negative and wants to go even though there’s a million dollar contract or whatever $2 million contract find a way that the new team pays half of it or you just write some of the money off as a team or the writer goes you know what I ripped the contract you keep your money I just need to go somewhere else I But again it’s my private speculation I have no clue no really information about it but it’s just how I feel after the the Jirro Italia that um a user realizes okay I will never be able to catch Pugatcha and I’m not even second anymore because now Isakalo passed me So I’m third in my own team but he could be the king in any other team right so I I could see people or I could see him
Oh who’s your white jersey
well then I would need a look at the potential start list there
You’ve got Ramco Lenny Martinez Lipovitz Well then um let’s go for Lipovitz for that one Yep Lipovitz
Polka dot jersey Carter pass winning last year Yeah Um oh we haven’t talked about team Ena’s grain ideas I don’t see them really being a contender for a podium but if Bernal wants he could go in breakaways and take the polka dot jersey but I’m not sure if if that is what he wants or if he prefers to finish somewhat four to six in the in the overall I guess he would rather go for the overall car pass was good in a jurro Um the tour no I don’t think that suits him that well So yeah let’s give it back let’s give it again to Kapas Roman is not there anymore
Yeah
So I guess Kapas it’s it’s a good option team competition team UAE because Pungacha is going to be winning um he going to have his lieutenants finishing eight and nine or whatever So I believe he is going to take or the team going to secure the the team’s competition The Montan 2 stage big battle between the GC riders I would say because it’s an easy stage the team of the leader which I believe will be Pugatcha can easily control it and Pugatcha might try to win it or we see a generous present from Pugatcha to Yonas and go you know what Yonas take that stage I’m already two minutes ahead and I don’t need 10 seconds bonus Maybe we see that but otherwise I go probably Pugacha
What about the final stage since uh the Sakura climb is in there what do you think will happen there if there’s no crash in the run to that climb or on that climb where people like have to get off their bike and they lose time really quickly right because if you stand still and they still moving in the first group you lose so much time If that doesn’t happen which I don’t hope nobody deserves to lose the race on the last day because of a crash or spectator waving the flag into your front wheel right nobody deserves to lose a race after three weeks of hard work I believe it’s one of the classics riders Matthew Thunderpool going to get away and take it
I would love to see that
Mhm
Yeah I think that’s a very good predictions there
Or or about fun art If Yonas goes you know what i’m two minutes behind Pugacha I cannot make it about you go But yeah I think one of these two guys got the best chances um there It’s not hard enough for the GC riders but it’s too hard for the sprinters So it’s got to be one of these classic typewriters