Is Jonas Vingegaard The Favourite For the Tour de France 2025?

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hello everyone and welcome to another video here on the Cycling Dane Exit channel or if you’re listening on the Psyching Dane podcast available on Spotify and as always I’m joined by Patrick Blake of ADU Cycling well not really he’s part of the cycling Dane isn’t he But uh yeah today we’re going to be talking more about this order of France because this is around the corner and as we did last time where we talked about Tad Baga and his chances of winning is he the favorite We’re going to do the same now for Visma Lisa and Yonis Vingle and I mean Patrick we might as well start being a goal and the tour to France has been a really good story since he debuted in 2021 yeah I mean Jonas has been very good in the tour say that debut where he was pretty unknown to everybody and then just came out of nowhere and just finished in second place he’s obviously you know finished second last year as well he’s won it a couple of times as well so does that make that makes them wait are they equal now or has Pagatra got one more Well in their rivalry yeah but Pagatra has that 2020 one so Yoness was Yeah what was he doing in 2020 He was bitterly pulling turns for Roglitch in the Welter Espña and was that the year he won the B the copy of Bali That might have been in 2021 actually yeah so essentially we’re doing this video just for being fair right You know everybody knows Talipagatra is the big favorite but we’ve got to be fair and equal here we got to give Yonas his his due to diligence you know got to cover all bases because at the end of the day I think we can all sort of agree that if somebody is going to beat Pigatcha it is going to be Vingo pretty much maybe I’m discounting some people a bit too early in some people of the kind of wild outsiders who are 18 to1 or something who are going to win but realistically Yonas is the person who’s going to beat Pagatcha because he is the only person on the start list who has beaten him in the tour of France so therefore we have to talk about him he’s got a good team we’re going to go through well probably yeah his team his season and route and where we think that he might be able to put Patcher under some pressure what do you think of his season this year It’s not been as dominant as it was last year obviously the toilet bass country crash kind of hampered everything but leading up to that point he had dominated Toreno he dominated the Grand Camino and it’s not quite being the same level of dominance he’s only won the well only he’s won the Walter Algav but even that was the final time trial where he swept it up but when you look at it now with the second place rider is Almeida and Almeida has been absolutely incredible this year that looks a bit more impressive now and then obviously Paris where he crashed and Doofane he finished second to Bagata but what do you think of that season We keep advocating for this one day races but he seems to be allergic to that yeah he does doesn’t he But he’s it’s not really his his cup of tea to be honest in terms of his season like you say it’s good to get the win i think it would have been a little bit disconcerting if he didn’t win that race i mean like you say it was won largely on that TT and I think that is certainly a strong point of Yonas’s his time trial and depending on the course you could say that he is stronger than Pagatcha yeah Parines obviously was disappointing he lost that stage to Alada Evan DNF the race as well so it didn’t seem like he was on the best form in Parines obviously the do was his first race back following that crash so it was a little bit unknown obviously like you say he crashed in Bass Country 2024 and then pretty much arrived at the tour to France as his next race and we were all saying “Oh you there’s no way he’s going to be in good form of his hampered preparation.” And he did really well to be fair like you remember that first I think it was the second stage where Pagatra attacked and yeah Yonas was right on him so you can’t discount him and like I say Vidane I just realized how many second places he had at Vidane actually he had five second places not all of them were to Pagacha though he did put 20 plus seconds into him in the time trial so maybe that’s a point Yonas could use to his advantage but he did end up losing Kryto by 59 seconds to Pigatcha which isn’t actually the biggest time gap in all honesty considering how dominant Pagata was in that race yonas did do a decent job to limit it to just a minute so especially considering that Pagatas had a relatively smooth sailing season versus Yonas’s crash obviously it seems like very fine margins at the moment but I would say overall Jonas’s season has been good i agree actually given where he’s coming from it’s kind of been Yeah winning a stage fright it’s just the level that he’s put up that you kind of expect that dominance and yeah but we’ll see anyways now let’s talk with the team first and then we can talk about how he could win the team Patrick uh we speculated over what team actually I think back in January what team we thought they were going to send it and they didn’t listen to us Simon Yates fresh off his Jedi win Matteo Jurgensson Seb Cruz Wenard Tanut Victor Campernat and Eduardo Afini uh yeah what do you think of that team yeah it’s solid team for sure this is a it’s a ludicrous team just looking down it and I was thinking about all the things that this team has achieved i mean amongst them they’ve got what one two three four five grand tours in there cuz Yonas has got two Yates has got two Kuss has got one they’ve got a monument with Wildart and all the things that he’s done you know the green jersey jorgensson who’s won Parnees twice they’ve got Atheni the European TT champ you know they’ve just you know but no in camps is like there’s still a fantastic ride in camps isn’t he Been he’s been like Belgt champ as well like it’s a team absolutely respplendant with talent when you look at when you add up the Pal Maharez of them all into one and I think it is a super strong team like coming off of that Jirro win that’s crazy that he’s probably going to be a domestique for for Vingo although they’ll probably play a bit of smoke and mirrors and say that Yates and Jorgensson are some co-leaders alongside Yonas to kind of throw UI Timmer off but to be fair I think UEI kind of got bases covered with like Car Major and Adam Yates so there’s a little bit of a head-to-head going on in the not just the leaders but the secondary and then the tertiary leaders as well it’s a super good team isn’t it You’ve got the good mountain support with Cus with Yates with Jorgensson you got the allroundedness of wart and I’d also probably say like te Benote he can do good medium mountain support as well and then camparts and atheni is your more pure rulers to try and guide you through the flatter stages but you know ward and bonoke definitely play those sorts of roles as well even the I would say too he’s a very good classics rider and is very capable of taking care of himself so I think it’s a super well well balanced team I think that it’s got strength in all areas and I think that it’s a team which can take it to UEIE team emerit which is at the end of the day the main thing that it needs to do do you think they should Okay we’re talking about tactics we’re not talking about how you want to win going to win but do you think how are they going to play kind of Sebus Yates and Jurgensson Are they going to play maybe Jorgensson stays in GC as well so he can potentially be a second card and then you just let Yates and Sebus who potentially are not as well haven’t got the big resistance right now uh what am I saying like the endurance and they can just peak for certain days so they can be well rested and just take it easy get in the grapeto in pretty much any stage they’re not needed and then when they’re needed their full charge and then you can smack them on the front of the pelaton and do the most damage i see what you mean you’re talking as if like just almost like stage like like man marking or want like stage marking you want specifically to peak riders for a specific point in the race because is there much point in having sepus and Simon Yates absolutely pinging in the first week when you’ve got a very classics orientated race Perhaps not would it be more beneficial to have them come in a little bit undercooked so to say and then have them peing in the second and third weeks when there’s a lot more mountain stages so that they can support Yonas better It might make more sense to do that now that does have the disadvantage of you immediately wipe those guys out of GC before they’ve even had a chance to do anything i mean Yates has just won the Euro to Talia at the end of the day it might be a bit risky to write him off of GC like immediately but it’s it’s difficult to to say i think that realistically they’ll probably keep as many of them in GC for as long as they can so that they can apply pressure to UEIE if there are any other crosswind stages where UEIE miss out but they manage to get a Simon Yates or a Jorgensson or whoever into the breakaway or like a a front echelon and and Pagach is behind then they can put pressure on that way versus if you just ride for Yonas and Yonas goes out the back door of an echelon then that’s all of your eggs in the Yonas basket so I think considering the first week looks so chaotic it makes the most sense to have as many riders still in contention as possible so you have as many options moving forwards into the race yeah I see what you mean as well and I’m just worried that they’re going to Yeah not play the the Yonas game and then there is going to be four of them in the top 10 but Tadpach is going to be leading by like 5 minutes 3 minutes at the end of the first week and then it’s kind of like oh we’re back in the Chris F era and the race will be completely dead or like last year’s tour of France if if we’re frank but yeah the Afini Camp and Bern where are they kind of going to be best felt Obviously they’re going to be if they are going to get the yellow jersey are you going to be on break formation control phase as part of the stage but where else can they be used as potentially a weapon There’s no team time trial unfortunately yeah there is no TT i think this would be a very good team time triing unit i would say again primarily I expect to see them being most useful in that first week you got a lot of punchy stages you got a lot of stages on the northwest of France and lots of wind i mean gosh do you remember that stage that finished in Dunkirk for Wart One in 2022 where Vizma absolutely lined it out Absolutely iconic finished that you know that’s the kind of terrain we’re going to be dealing with short sharp climbs that can really blow things apart so I think you need those saucer riders i think it might even have been the note who set up that attack you know who had on his wheel when he when he launched i can’t remember exactly but anyway I think it’s that first week you’re going to need those big rulers there to protect your your little climbers in the in the crosswinds or in any you know positioning for those little climbs i mean at the end of the day I think you know Yonas and Yates are going to need some protection jorgensson can like I said take care of himself but you know you need uh W camparts but no and to be looking after all of those climbers universally and it’s going to be hard to keep you know control all of them you know it’s going to be like trying to keep chickens in a coupe that’s going to be ridiculously difficult to do but I think it’s is a very good team capable of doing that that their main role is going to be surviving that first week then after that like you say it’ll be break formation controlling making sure that you don’t get anybody too dangerous up the road i mean what Venard is in there as well and he definitely deserves some talking about because uh he was instrumental in cracking Tadvaga in the 2022 tour where on the horsecom stage he was dropped in like he was in the Jurro at the right time at the right moment and then absolutely just smashed out the WS and I don’t think UA going to be letting him in a breakaway anytime soon so what’s his role going to be Uh he is yeah you’ve said that he’s kind of the rider that UEI can’t really match up against and no one’s as good as him in their team compared to him yeah he’s really the jack of all trades isn’t he At the moment perhaps he’s lost a little bit of his kind of savagery and his attacking and his potency of you know victories perhaps over the last year since that bad crash in the well in which Zach to be honest exactly you know you summarize it pretty nicely there but I doubt UEI like you say will let him into the break at the end of the day he was the one who really uh you know made it all fall apart for Del Toro and I don’t think UE will make that same mistake twice so I think our first week he’s going to be helping but maybe he he might get a breakaway at the end of the day u don’t they can’t control every break it might be easy just to put a man up there with Ward and just you know try and do something that way you know have a satellite rider with their satellite rider rather than trying to control Wart all the time it’s like you know trying to keep a jack in the box i’m just looking at any of the mountain stages that could be good like could he be helpful on stage 14 over the over the tormale or could he be good on stage 18 if he can get over the glandon the malen before the cod laa law or stage 19 if he can make it over the cordis or the comedon possibly you know there’s there’s multiple occasions where w can be useful in this race as a satellite rider but I don’t think he’s got the same climbing ability as he did in 2022 to really put him the put the hammer down on the hotel camp which is back this year which is going to be good to see so you know it’s I don’t think it’ll be exactly the same i don’t think you’re going to be seeing W putting down that sort of pace on the hotel camp i hope I do I hope I’m wrong for the W lovers out there but I just don’t see it this year yeah and I think Green Josie aspirations are probably not on the table either and uh yeah but yeah we’ve kind of been dropping hints of it how does Yaso win the 2025 tour We talked a bit about using WOW but Vingo as we saw at the Dofphane was definitely a league below where Pagache is right now the world champion visma Malisa bike will for sure be hoping that Tadagata is just burning himself out with that long calendar he had last year as well doing the Jurro Tour and World Championships Tremple Crown and then having a heavy classic season and then yeah that was kind of flagged up everywhere on social media in the time trial that oh Pagatcha’s burned out and it was kind of like well not really so uh yeah how are they going to defeat the monster the rainbow jersey monster It’s a good question visma listening to this to try and get ideas oh gosh it’s it’s just so hard to say where like you might Okay let’s put our optimism cap on good luck you You got to thing is you got you got to you got to take the race to Pigatra as much as you can at the end of the day you don’t know what’s going to happen like stuff can go wrong he can get caught out in an echelon in a split he can have a crash not saying that they want that to happen but you have to race for the win you can’t racing for second place so this first week I think you’re going to be seeing a very aggressive Patch you just got to cover him as best as you can you’re going to lose seconds like from bonus seconds mainly i think Yonas is punching enough to hold Pagatcha’s wheel in these shorter efforts now which used to be deemed as his weakness but I don’t actually think that’s a weakness of Yonas’s anymore so I think you’re going to you’re going to expect to lose maybe 15 to 20 seconds maybe in that first week from bonus seconds in terms of a TT I don’t know yoda’s put 20 seconds into Pagatra in the dopen TT it did have a climb in there maybe a flatter TT is more suited to Pogy but I think they’re pretty much pretty much level in the TTS especially to one as flat as this i think Pagatcha did put time and Tionus in the TT last year if I remember correctly the one in the first week or so i don’t think it was much time though it might be 10 seconds so I think okay with 33ks you might see you know 20 seconds either way for either of them but you know that could mean that Yonas is a minute down or know 40 seconds down let’s say by stage seven stage eight whatever so you’re really looking towards the last you know from stage 12 onwards I would say is the main mountains you got but the uphill TT obviously Jonas did absolutely shred the archer in the 2023 Lord of France where he just absolutely kind of demolished arguing about TT all those doping allegations but you know is going to glide past that uh discussion point and uh yeah he could put something in there you just don’t know there’s plenty of big mountain days where he does seem to do fare a little bit better so you got plenty of those stage 14 for example I mean Mon 2 be an interesting one to see how they do there stage 18 a big big altitude day that’s got 5,800 m of climbing in that day holy moly stage 19 again another just sub 5,000 meter climbing day i think there are opportunities for Yonas to try and put pressure on him but I like it it’s so hard to really kind of provide some spirited encouragement for this side of the argument when you see what happened in Midane where Pagachi looked like he uh wasn’t even like going full full gas at times like he looked like he was actually reigning it in at points whereas Yonas was going absolutely absolutely full but like I said at the start you got to go in with the attitude of we are here to win this something might go wrong for Poggy and we need to be there to you know try and pick up the pieces and pick up the scraps where we can if you go with the attitude of okay how are we going to limit time to Poggy Well then you’re just going to end up in second place anyway so you may as well uh give it some beans as as I’d say up north I suppose yeah I agree with that they definitely have to come with it and be aggressive and try and do something not just be passive and I think the Jirro does show that they will try and do something uh Vingle apparently said to Danish TV that he didn’t quite like the tactics that the team were doing in the DF so I mean they’re trying so uh yeah they’ll have to use their resources that they have and Want certainly very strong materon Yates so uh yeah they should almost hire in some of the strategists from F1 they seem to be very on it sometimes we might as well finish with predictions patrick is he going to win And how many stages Uh I think that he I don’t I don’t think he’ll win a I don’t He just broke all of Denmark’s hearts there i know but will he win a stage I do think he will i mean he won a stage last year when people didn’t really expect him to considering that Huggy was kind of dishing out to him all the time and he still got that stage win against all odds so I think he will get a win somewhere in that i think there will be that that silver lining you put me in a hard position now cuz now I have to say yes and normally I try and say no because then it got but it didn’t it didn’t work last year so I’ll say yes and it won’t work it won’t work definitely i think he’s going to take two stages maybe the Mon one two stage that would be quite epic but anyways with that that’s basically it for our mini preview of the tour of France here on the second day and extra channel we’re available on Spotify as well link down below in the pinned comment and check out Patrick’s own channel as well i’ll do cycling there will be more content there maybe to do with the Nationals i’m not sure but we are doing our preview show as well so look forward to that that’s coming up soon so until then thank you very much for watching and we will see you in the next