Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Moonshot Revisited with Andy Edstrom

SHOW NOTES:
https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/podcast/michael-saylors-bitcoin-moonshot-revisited

“There will be Harvard Business School case studies written about this…if Bitcoin does what we all think it can, if it reaches its potential, high school history books will have the name Michael Saylor in them.”
— Andy Edstrom

Andy Edstrom is a financial advisor, and the author of Why Buy Bitcoin.Bitcoin. In this interview, we discuss Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin strategy, Bitcoin vs gold & real estate as well as demand, adoption and the four year cycle.

THIS EPISODE’S SPONSORS:
IREN – https://www.iren.com/
Swan – https://swan.com/
Ledger – https://www.ledger.com/
CheatCode – https://www.cheatcode.co.uk/
Casa – https://casa.io/

SUPPORT THE SHOW:
→ Become a Patron: https://www.patreon.com/whatbitcoindid/
→ Subscribe on iTunes
→ Leave a review on iTunes
→ Share the show out with your friends and family on social media
→ Drop me a line on hello@whatbitcoindid.com
→ https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/sponsorship/

SUPPORT BITCOIN
→ Donate to OpenSats https://opensats.org/

TIMESTAMPS:
00:00:00 Introduction
00:15:28 Saylor’s strategy
00:29:19 Bitcoin conviction; CSW
00:37:39 Gold; real estate; debt
00:51:12 bitcoin cycles, demand, & adoption

WHERE TO FIND THE SHOW:
→ My website: https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/podcast/
→ Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2OOlzVV
→ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2ygc4W1
→ YouTube: https://bit.ly/3nyi9Ez
→ Rumble: http://tinyurl.com/rumblewbd
→ Fountain: tinyurl.com/43rdtnyd

LISTEN TO OLD EPISODES:
→ By guest: https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/guests/
→ By topic: https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/topics/
→ Transcriptions: https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/transcriptions/

WHERE TO FOLLOW ME:
→ Twitter: https://twitter.com/whatbitcoindid/
→ Medium: https://medium.com/@whatbitcoindid/
→ Instagram: http://instagram.com/whatbitcoindid/
→ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/whatbitcoindid/
→ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/whatbitcoindidpodcast
→ Rumble: http://tinyurl.com/rumblewbd
→ Website: https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/
→ Email list: https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/subscribe/

LEARN ABOUT BITCOIN:
→ Step by Step Guide: https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/learn-bitcoin
→ Training: https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/training/
→ Resources: https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/resources/

#Bitcoin #Finance #Economics

We don’t waste any time around here what did we drink last time can I just have a time exactly this was it this we’re going to talk about tradition today uh Peter I’m hoping to start a tra a tradition here in these headyy days of Bitcoin um do you do remember I’m I’m

I’m not a single malt guy yeah you know what though especially the pey ones it’s all right you you said you at least told me last time that you enjoyed it so I did I got to say it was okay actually maybe maybe you’re just being kind I got

Dry tiny bit for me so so your tiny bit last time thank you last time we recorded an episode yes uh Brett Morrison MH great big Corner great guy love uh had bought me this whiskey Port Charlotte and uh so I brought it to our recording and we all had a nice

Drink and was was that the one in Malibu it was in Malibu beautiful place couple years ago couple years ago two years ago dang almost exactly two years ago um we learned that night that Jeremy who was working for you then was a huge single M

Whiskey guy and on the spot that night you basically bought him an all expenses tour to Scotland I did I did which which is IND indicative either of your generosity or the fact that you probably thought it was still a bull market as many of us did no listen look I one of

The things I’m not very good at is um conserving money and I tend to I feel like been lucky in life so I give a lot away and and that’s not from a position of extreme wealth or anything it’s I’ve just I always feel like I’ve been lucky

Hey better to be lucky than good better be lucky um and Jeremy uh it was dream holiday and he had no way of going and I could do that for him and and so I did it was amazing you made him a very happy man that night well second thing that

Happened that night I feel like I should tell the story of when he returned for that trip oh please so listen look oh no am I being a dick yeah no I tell you off camera okay okay fa I will like to say Jeremy thank you for the

Very generous gift you bought me after I sent you one new dream holiday at my expense Jeremy Jeremy doesn’t work for us anymore no I’m I’m aware I’m aware let me tell you the if you’ll humor me the second thing that happened that night was I think it was Jack dorsy

Opened up at Twitter spaces uh I think for the benefit of Erica rhods if I’m remembering right who’s running for congress you had her on the show um you were a supporter I was a supporter I had a very modest fundraiser firm at the time and uh a guy

Named Dennis Porter managed to get himself up on stage and ask a question and somehow masterfully just hijack that whole space and open his own space and suck all the uh all the viewers there was like 10 or 20,000 people in that space onto his space and uh I don’t

Remember your exact words at the time but it was something along the lines of got to respect the hustle well you know what the thing about Dennis is I’ve had Dennis Dennis has come to Bedford and so anyone who comes to Bedford who makes the because it’s not like hey buddy do

You want to come to see my football club in LA or New York or Sydney it’s not even London it’s like Bedford we’re at the ass end of nowhere there’s nothing there’s no reason to come to Bedford apart from to see me if you’re my friend Orly my football team Dennis came Dennis

Game his amazing girlfriend came and you know she did this incredible thing she ended up helping my dad lay out the kit and honestly they had a great time look Dennis I love you Dennis I’ll say this that man has got game he will go for it right he will

Hustle but you cannot take away from him what he’s done he’s had a lot of wins I agreed just in those two years I mean now he’s uh he’s doing one of the key missions which is helping continue to make America safe for Bitcoin for mining for

Bitcoiners um which I think is one of the most important things he he will be he will become a politician he he will run for a governor he will run for Senate Congress or something at some point and I think he’ll have built up the political capital for when he wants

To do it yeah yeah he’s he’s working on it he’s already come a long way in the last uh in the last couple years and uh I look forward to seeing what great things he does in future you have a lot of good you got a good memory for that

Day what what what was the price of Bitcoin at that point O what oh I think I know that too I did a little prep was that the same trip where I ended up leaving three large boxes at your house for no no that was that was the same

Trip the same yeah yeah yeah yeah I don’t know if people uh appreciate the very tiny contribution I’ve made to the merchandising effort of real Bedford those boxes are now now in Bedford and there you are in your gear that’s where you got it from took out

The box no he only he only had jerseys he only jerseys believe it or not I didn’t scalp any from uh from those boxes you should have man yeah was March 22 so price was about can I guess go on I’m going to guess like 40ish yeah oh

Sorry I would G slightly high it was yeah like high 30s 40 something like that so the episode title I think was don’t get wrecked and and it was Loosely based on an article I published on BTC times which was about you know not Levering your Bitcoin and yeah I think

Within two months price was down by half from that point was that on the way up or on the way down on the way down on the second that was the second correct that was it we didn’t know that the bull market was over yet hindsight it looks

So obvious one in hindsight the problem is when you have multiple 30% dips in a bull market mhm uh when it happens even at 35 yeah it’s going to come back the ball Market boom we were done that must have been would lunar have blown up then was it

Just before it was before I think I think it was after uh Elon had reversed himself on bitcoin right oh it’s bad for the environment or whatever he said he had bought and then yeah and then done but I think it was before Terina damn do you mind if I remit it’s

A little more please go ahead so uh it’s a little over five years ago since I started writing y by bitcoin price was 3K at that point and I was sweating bullets cuz I was underwater on my big purchase at the time and so it was partly a test of my own thes

Um and that summer I was still working on the bookcd Bitcoin 2019 conference and the thing about that is is all the conferences now the MC’s do like the morning or the afternoon of one day I did the whole two days on my own yeah shout out to David Bailey and C

Bailey I think it’s Cali mainly respected me for that yeah no you you were you were on all the time the whole whole time you know it in some ways is my favorite uh of the Bitcoin conferences because it was a good size do you remember how cool that building

Was it was amazing yeah it had the outdoor roof deck y um Celsius had a booth uh masinski I had a conversation with masinski this was a while ago obviously um I sat behind I don’t remember which talk it was uh I sat behind or no next to quidam I didn’t

Know Brandon quidam he was very friendly just introduced himself I had no idea who he was um all you know lots of now household Bitcoin names are there I met Dan held uh turto maester pitched me his levered Bitcoin Fund in great detail I

Met breed love I met Marty I mean it was you know it was an amazing experience there was only I don’t know two or three th000 people there yeah I mean it was basically about the size of what Pacific was right that sounds about right yeah it feels a very similar Vibe that’s

Right that’s right pretty intimate you know a lot of signal uh not too much noise and now we have a conference every weekend some multiple but weekend it’s growing so much yeah the I mean the industry it’s a lot changed a lot changed in a long time company new

Companies have have popped up it was September of 2019 that I finally published y by Bitcoin and I did something I almost never do which was somehow I’d heard about Cory just about his existence so and I heard he was a la guy so I sent him a copy and uh and he

Invited me to this lunch in in Brentwood so it was this venture capitalist by by the way he was invited and he just said show up so the guy who was hosting had no idea who I was he was very gracious about it and it was a bunch of

Middle-aged dudes they were all his investors in the fund he was about to relocate to New Zealand uh partly for tax purposes partly for family purposes and uh Cory and I just painted the room orange those guys didn’t know it hit him they probably probably all they remember

Of that event was two lunatics you know talking about Bitcoin and uh but Cory asked me to Coffee afterward and uh I immediately could tell he was going to do something substantial and GR in Bitcoin and at that time Swan was not Swan it was give Bitcoin but he Ed me

The idea of a Bitcoin exchange with quote no sell button you know he interviewed me for a job once yeah you I think you mentioned long to you know no I didn’t this is probably PRI Swan presumably prian God I can’t can’t you’ll remember the details better it was in LA it was

The podcast was still young um I didn’t have much in the way of sponsors and I was running out of money from when I got my advertising agent divorced and I was like thinking [ __ ] I need a job and I think he interviewed me but I’m trying to think

Or was that before I started the podcast it was very very early it might even been before I had I can’t remember but yeah he did once before before you flew to Japan before the GS uh the carpels interview that was the second trip to Japan first one was Roger episode 18 was

That wow yeah yeah wow man lot of lot of water under the bridge and um yeah so I think it was a couple years later that Cory asked me to join the board and I accepted and then and then the guy who was building the financial advisor product for Swan Swan advisor Services

Left so we had a chat and decided okay I guess it’s going to be me that has to build it and obviously you know credit all credit to the team um you know Dan Webb basically built the thing and Ryan Flynn sold it and tremendous team at at Swan uh Jeremy shalter

But um yeah fast forward to uh fast forward to today we’re in a bull market um you know I I I don’t know about you I’m feeling a little exhausted already Lots going on um you know that that Swan investment now might be worth quite a bit so I’m thinking about

Portfolio management you know risk management decisions there you go would would be prudent to cut it back um you know but what anyway when when number goes up your portfolio gets realigned for you and you have to decide whether to uh you know whether whether to adjust

Or just let it ride and so got that and then obviously you know joined the on rant team with my friend uh my pretty long-term Bitcoin friend Jesse Myers AKA BTC we’ve had him on the show yeah so he and Michael tanguma are building something pretty cool I’m excited to to

Lend a hand in the advisor space I crushed their uh uh Happy Hour in London oh very nice yeah good for you yeah was it a classy event it was a good pub with some good beers perfect the British way as you can see I know I’ve known Michael

For some time I like Michael a lot yeah yeah no he’s he’s very sharp uh he’s very talented he has a vision um and he’s uh he’s executing on it which is awesome I feel like you’ve got a whole list of things here that you’re reminiscent on here yeah you know I want

To go into my questions what’s your on your list yeah yeah no look I mean okay so for onramp I I started a pod um the scarce asses show MH we uh Preston was the first guest then I had Jeff Booth by the way uh Jesse and I are are

Co-hosting on this thing he’s riding shotgun with me uh we had Lynn uh we had pier and Morgan Rashard just recorded with gladstein and breed love and so that’s fun so I’ve learned from uh learn from the best over here M uh gotta keep grinding be patient that’s it that’s it

And so I got that going on which is fun and um yeah just watching just watching very excited bitcoiners had my my buddy Daman So speaking of people who used to work for you Damen Somerset did some production work for you years ago he used to do some of the editing and the

Camera work in the when we just started doing video he worked it was only for a short period of time but he worked for us oh yeah I remember yeah great guy great bitcoiner um he does work now for the progressive bitcoiner which I know

Is is an angle that you’re keen on well no I was just it’s not that an angle I’m keen on as like some like thing I’m dedicated to it’s more that we just needed to balance the voices um and so we made it was like two years ago now I

Think or year and a half ago we just put a shout out say where are the progressive bitcoiners we’ve got a lot conservative bitcoiners we got a lot libertarian bitcoiners we need some progressives and they all came with that Woodwork and we interviewed a bunch at

The same time Mark Goodwin was one yeah that’s how we met Mark he’s crushing it yeah Mark’s absolutely crushing it and then the guys obviously launched Progressive Bitcoin Jason Mayer came out wrote the progressive Gat for Bitcoin yes which I wrote the forward to Well Done sir you’re you’re welcome did you

Read it I have started it but not finished it Forward did you skip the forward I’ll be honest no let’s see I I I think yeah I probably did Skip for so do you know what I said I tell you what I said said I said I said this book is

The most important Bitcoin uh Bitcoin bin most important book about Bitcoin for conservatives well there’s someone writing the conservative case of Bitcoin now I can’t remember his name that sounds easier that sounds easier less difficult yeah exactly yeah no I did a book swap with him actually Pacific Bitcoin and but I

Still I need to get I need to read the whole thing you should just read the forward it’s pretty good yeah when when when was the first show we made with Andrew Andrew Andy very very proper let me have a look it was probably it probably was micro strategy and it probably was

2020 go on try and get the month uh late 2020 cuz sailor started getting active you know mid to late 2020 I I don’t know o October November maybe December yeah yeah do you remember the title um micro strategy something moonshot Bitcoin moonshot see I did my homework before I

Showed up today right that’s pretty funny though really like cuz it moonshot I mean like moonshot implies it’s a gamble so it’s a bit unfair I think I think uh Michael S has the conviction that he is right and he’s continuing to do what he did but like either way felt

Like a moon sh uh we can say now four years on [ __ ] right crushed it Ked it seems to be going well for him yeah seems like the right strategy yeah I had um it’s not a micro strategy that’s the point it’s macro strategy one of his

Entities I think I think the entity that owns the Bitcoin is actually called macro strategy right which is genius that is it genius naming yeah that was um so that summer I don’t know somebody spotted I think it was it might have been Matt Walsh uh Nick Carter’s partner

He had that spotted when they’d actually bought it but the press release had come out and it was talking about oh you know we’re examining options for our treasury right which may include I don’t know something other than treasuries and maybe gold and maybe some Bitcoin oh hey

Now and then they invested the treasury and then they you know he cleverly sort of managed the existing shareholder base right because if you were an investor in micr strategy you were owning a business intelligence software stock you didn’t think you were owning a Bitcoin stock so

He did a tender offer you know to add a nice premium to take out the existing shareholders while he was you know advancing that thing and explain what that allowed them to do allowed people to get out if they didn’t buy the Bitcoin move right yeah exactly

Because if you’re a shareholder I mean it it’s a publicly traded stock and it has been for decades so yes you can always trade in and out technically but of course you know if you’re a large chunky holder it may take you some time

To scale in or out of the position so if you see if if you’re an investor and you’re thinking oh I don’t want a Bitcoin stock you know I want just a business intelligence or software stock then he’s G he gave shareholders an opportunity to get out even if you owned

A chunk of it you still got out at a premium like if you owned too much um to just trade out of easily um still the company was was willing to take you out at a premium and that would have been a bad move correct correct anyone who took that deal and

Some people did take that deal uh I don’t remember what percent uh you know what percent of the shareholder base took that deal um but then it was in I think it was it was sometime in the fall I think that I did a swan signal episode and throughout the possibility that

Because I had glanced at the balance sheet and I and I saw that it was a cash flow positive company and I threw out the possibility that oh you know this guy could maybe borrow maybe could issue some debt to buy some Bitcoin and then I

Don’t know a month or two later of course so began the issuance of convertible bonds and I didn’t know I didn’t think it hadn’t occurred to me that he would do convertible debt I thought he’d just do normal debt let’s explain the difference between those two then what then just explain the game

What’s he up to yeah yeah yeah he is up to accumulating more Bitcoin than he otherwise could have by issuing Capital to the public markets and there’s several forms of capital that are available ailable to companies that want to raise money so how do you raise money

Is your if you’re a company well you can borrow you can borrow from a bank you can borrow from the bond market you issue a bond people buy the bond they’re your lenders um you can issue Equity by the way he has issued Equity he has sold portions of micro strategy company the

Stock um and use the proceeds to buy Bitcoin now a convertible bond is a tweener it’s a hybrid between debt and equity and it’s technically debt except for it has a feature an embedded call option whereby if the stock price goes up enough as a bond holder you can

Convert your bond which is a fixed dollar claim into an ownership stake an equity stake in the company and usually that conversion premium is between 25 and 40% above the current stock price and so he has done that in size he just completed two deals right in a row

I think just in the last week I did an $800 million deal and a $500 million deal if I’m not mistaken and so um yeah so anyone who’s investing in that is saying well I like having a debt claim against the company because if either he’s wrong about the price of Bitcoin or

It takes longer to play out like let’s say I don’t know it just takes longer for Bitcoin to continue advancing maybe it takes more than a four-year cycle this time for whatever reason um I have a debt claim against the company and I have a maturity so like if it really

Goes off the rails if it’s a 5year maturity I come to the table and basically I can demand my money back so I have downside protection how does he pay that back well that’s the question it’s scenario analysis so if and it’s smart obviously if all goes well as it

Has done and we have four years Cycles let’s say cycles that are net upward and not much longer than four years then issuing fiveyear maturities is smart because he’s bought himself a whole cycle and a little bit but you know if Bitcoin goes down and stays down

For a long time number one and number two if he can’t bear the interest cover the interest from from the uh you know from the uh from cash flows of the company then he’s got an issue now the the coupons on these things are tiny right they’re less than 1% so the

Interest burden is quite small but it’s harder to negotiate with a maturity so this gets to you know good kinds of Leverage bad kinds of Leverage the longer your maturity the better that’s what a mortgage is Right long as you can make that interest payment you got 30

Years before you have to worry about a maturity and at least in the US not so in the UK that’s a different thing but uh for micro strategy and for sailor um I think that the scenario in which you would have a problem is bitcoin price

Goes down stays down and then he reaches a maturity and even though his business is doing fine and his cash flows can cover the interest his cash flows might not cover the maturity of that debt and he may have to issue new equity and dilute the existing shareholder base or

You know take other action okay other action would be sell Bitcoin right it could be it could be another loan it could be yeah I mean there’s you know he’s a known quantity now the company is UN likely sells Bitcoin tens of billions of market cap I thought I saw it’s like

A$3 billion market cap now or something envelope um which I looked that up and I was thinking gosh is it is it is that right it seems too high but you know number one up and and the stock is trading now at a sizable premium I think

On the order of 70% % or something to the to the value of the Bitcoin on the balance sheet and so by the way you know people are looking at it as an investment first of all if you’ve been invested uh hat tip you’ve made a ton of

Money um I think you know one of the things that’s worth doing and thinking about as an investor is a sum of the parts analysis right you know basically uh Wall Street 101 if you can split this business into the the balance sheet bit coin plus the cash flowing business

Intelligence software business which has a value which is some multiple of cash flows and then there’s some additional premium right now and that premium exists partly because we’re in a bull market partly because he now has a demonstrated track record of raising Capital uh efficiently and effectively

Such that the number of coins right per share is going up and the price is going up so he’s doing right by his investors and so now he has credibility having done this through a cycle I think that’s one of the main reasons why there’s a significant premium now in the stock is

He has proven an Adept Capital allocator right it’s the same reason arguably that Berkshire hathway trades it a br a big premium to uh its Book value or its net asset value is people look at the guy at the helm and they say oh this guy’s pretty good at allocating capital and

Maybe uh if I’m a shareholder he’ll do it cleverly and it’ll be a creative to my investment in the long run but he stacking up debts that have to be paid at some point well they only have to be paid if they don’t convert to equity

Okay do they do they is it does it convert as an is it an option to convert it or it’s an option so so they can choose not to convert it you could um is it unlikely if there the premum yeah and look it’s a fair question I mean I

Haven’t it’s been a long time well first of all I have not dug into the indentures on the new issues that he just did last week and it’s been a long time since I looked at the issues that he did the convertible issues that he

Did in the last cycle so there may be some period after which you know the conversion option ends I’m not sure off the top of my head yeah h i mean the only the only disaster scenario I see is there one where he would be forced to sell Bitcoin to clear

Debts because that could have a systemic impact on bitcoin at some point we get we get cheap saps that’s right good for the good for the plbs who are stacking it’s quite the [ __ ] play he’s done oh it’s amazing uh there will be Harvard Business School case studies written about this he will

Be in he will be in the mainstream history books if Bitcoin does what we all think it can if it reaches its potential he will High School history books will have the name Michael sailor in them are you are you surprised that other companies have done the same Playbook that they have not

Yet I am a little surprised I’ll tell you what I’m surprised in a sort of historical con context you know path dependence in other words I didn’t think we’d see as Savage downturn as we did in the last bar market and I think that the way it went

Was he developed the Playbook he executed it he delivered it right to CEOs he held conferences he said send your CFOs to the to the conference we’ll tell you how it’s done and then I think the bar Market came and I’m sure those conversations were happening in

Boardrooms and then with the downturn it was like okay start over reset the clock and my gu is now those conversations are happening again and CFOs Andor CEOs seite guys are going to their boards and saying hey look it worked and and remember when we were talking about this

A few years ago and boards are saying no I don’t remember start over so do you think seeing him survive a bare Market is going to change people’s perception it has to right it has to some people’s perception that’s that’s the beauty of Bitcoin is the

Majority still ignore it laugh at it you know denigrate it whatever but some small percentage pay attention do the homework see an opportunity see a way to enrich the shareholders and themselves so yeah I think it will happen I’m not going to predict you know how many or

When but it’ll happen because there are companies out there generating way more cash flow the micro strategy and ab he’s pulled off an incredible I mean what is it like 30 Mill a year they I could be completely wrong I think it’s a bit higher I think it’s somewhere you’re

Talking about the operating business yeah profits I want to say it’s like between 50 and 100 million don’t quote me on it which is maybe it was a quarter 30 million a quarter yeah that could be yeah yeah and that’s a real business yeah but you’re right that it’s not the

World’s biggest business it’s not Apple it’s not you know billions in C they are companies out there that generate billions in cash flow annually or more h yeah it’s um I’ve gotten out of the business of predicting like you know what’s the next country that we’ll adopt

It or what’s the next uh company or you know we’ll cheer them in when they come yeah exactly we’ve all made uh we’ve all made too many mistakes guessing who’s next it’s better just to take it as it comes well well it is super interesting though to to watch what he’s done and

Know that there will be other CFOs out there thinking [ __ ] if we’ have done that and I think the same will happen with countries and they’re goingon to look at El Salvador and think [ __ ] we should have done that but I still think the volatility scares people off I still

Think there’s people who think yeah but like Bitcoin is still going to die right there absolutely are people like that some of them are my clients I talk to them on a regular basis they don’t understand it’s going to go up forever right they are yes it’s so hard to

Understand and I always um I asked this question to Pierre the other day which is you know look looking wind back the clock I don’t know 10 years because he was in it 10 years ago I was not and I asked him you know does your conviction

Go up because of the track record of success of Bitcoin or does it go up because you just lived through it you know fundamentally it’s part of your being for so long that you’re just comfortable with it or is it some combination and I think for some people it’s purely

Analytical and for others it’s just the passage of time and others it’s some combination of the two and it’s hard to know it’s hard to know even that that even for yourself I mean some days I wake up and think you know I think wow I had the

Thesis right you know pat on the back good job and then other days I think maybe I just survived for long enough that who knows if the thesis was right but you know this is the bet I’ve made and I’m just going with it yeah I think I I think a little bit

Would doubt lingers on just because the longer you’re in the more your net wealth really tends to be in Bitcoin unless you rebalance him which I’m not because I’m a degenerate um and so like I’m I’m po committed to Bitcoin now in every single way possible career finan in live football Hometown like

Everything and so the there’s like if if if it was just like one of my investments and I worked still in advertising I probably in some ways I don’t know if I’d have more or less conviction but I’d have less fear but it’s everything so now there’s this like

Little thing hey I respect a guy who’s Allin um I hope that uh not withstanding your Allin bet you just got some some uh good news this is my copy of the Wall Street Journal okay where’d you go that the uh the paper of record for finance

Which has a section on United Kingdom judge discredits Bitcoin claimant Britain’s High Court ruled Thursday that Australian computer scientist Craig Wright isn’t as he claimed for eight years quote Satoshi Nakamoto end quote the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin ready to sing do you have a copy of this I’m sure you have

Many copies of many tiny little thing yeah yeah but still you know Wall Street [Laughter] Journal the the news coverage is has graduated from God awful to not terrible I’m not going to say it’s balanced or accurate but it’s it’s improving slowly listen [ __ ] cig

G um I’m raising I’m raising a glass by the way do you know what the interesting about Craig I think the most fascinating part of the Craig right story is like what now like what now you know we’ve seen Ryan X Charles the [ __ ] rat come out today and call uh Craig right

Scammer um we’ve seen Calvin say I’m off on a big trip um we’ve heard we’ve had one tweet from Craig right saying I may appeal you’re not going to appeal me you can’t one he’s broke uh two I doubt the courts will allow three he’s going to be in jail

Um but it’s like what happens now what do all these people do do will will Calvin a just disappear and just do some gambling stuff or whatever well Craig what will Craig Wright do I mean if he doesn’t like if he goes to jail then what like bsv will die there’s no need

For an interent prize blockchain I don’t want I don’t know what nchain does I don’t know what the employees do where the money’s coming from assume it’s Calvin pumping it in like but what happens now no idea you know there are still fugitives uh like one of at least one of

The three AC guys who uh who I think are still on the lamb in non-extradition countries I mean it’s one thing to to ask you know how you’re going to support yourself the one thing we know I know nothing about his finances at all the one thing we know about anybody who was

Early enough in Bitcoin you know likely has some coins stashed somewhere somehow maybe he doesn’t I just don’t think Craig gr does I think he’s actually a [ __ ] [ __ ] yeah he not no this is why I think he had to sell his life story to the rights of his life story to

Calvin and I think this is why Calvin’s been his sugar daddy for so long and then Calvin threat I mean you saw the email where Calvin’s like threatened him saying you know I’m going to cut you off and you’ll be living out of a soup kitchen plus even if he has some stuff

Put away he’s he’s liable to for everyone’s legal costs everyone’s copas mine he owes climate 140 million wow like as is Calvin though is that right Calvin’s is different Calvin yeah I’m not going to say directly CU I don’t know but is potentially liable for

A number of the cost and number of the I don’t think climan okay interestingly I don’t think kimman uh certainly Copa Hut it’s mine but but I would imagine Calvin’s been very clever in the way he’s hi and move money around to to avoid that and that’s also why I think

He’s disappearing yeah would make sense well well here’s a hypothesis it’s probably a bad analogy but you tell me I think of the guy from The Wolf of Wall Street the penny stock uh Jordan Bel I think he probably filed bankruptcy he did prison time now he I don’t know sells does

Inspirational speeches I don’t know seminars yeah but that could be years away though yeah I mean I I I do think cro Goes to Jail uh I just think he’ll end up I’m convinced he’s going to end up being a pastor in some like African village

Passing the hat around because he is he is a pastor he’s so he says I think he I think he’ll have a uh I think one or two things I think he’ll no one of three I go three scenarios another technology cryptog G would be one there’s enough

Cultist that support that two he goes to someone like Africa and ends up finding God being a pastor and realizes you know the aror of his ways or three ends up dead interesting options interesting options he has uh he has attracted A Flock once why not again I mean anyway celebrate uh

Celebrate your great Victory you know the other thing about it I say I find him fascinating like like I find I spend more time fascinated about him than I do hating on him despite the fact he tried to destroy my [ __ ] life I spend I would absolutely see cross from and do another

Interview that you would yeah totally would wow yeah I’d interview Calvin you you want to I have Calvin’s phone number I called him once he didn’t answer so I just like text him every like two weeks and I forgive you doesn’t reply uh I love it hey

You’re the bigger man that’s good that’s good anyway can we go back to your book we’ve just been talking [ __ ] and saying nothing for about the last minutes let’s do it so you wrote a book why buy Bitcoin anyone listen you should buy the book and then you’ll buy Bitcoin uh H

How how much has your thesis changed yeah and have you changed how you explain it to people cuz I I we just made a show of Mark moss and I’m almost certainly going to go and change the way I tell it to People based just on that

But tell me yours first and then I’ll tell you yeah love to hear it so for the most part the thesis has played out I had set a 10-year price Target in the book which was I think 8 trillion or $400,000 a coin and that was a 10e Target from 2019

When it was published so you know we’re on the way right another 5 years 400k not unreasonable and we can you know quibble about well is that like a cycle Peak or is that like a you know an average over a cycle but but I think we’re in the zip

Code one thing I did in the book which was kind of cheeky was I gave out three scenarios and I give him equal weight and the equal weight was one-third chance that it dies remember this is 5 years ago um one third chance that it’s like reached its potential and kind of

Doesn’t go up or down and then one third chance that oh it goes a lot higher and so definitely got revisit those yes I’m I’m surprised that you weighed them so heavily even then then yeah remember this was pre-co um so already governments were you know spending too much but we hadn’t

Really seen the extent of the strange stuff they would due to us and yeah and it was obviously you know if the thing’s 15 years old now it’s a third earlier in its life so part of me also honestly I’d love to ask myself what I actually thought at the

Time part of me wanted to present this thing as kind of a long shot to investors speculators people just to get them comfortable that like look you could you know it could fail and you could lose your money don’t risk more than you’re willing to lose at that time

And I think that if I had come out on oh more than likely it’s going to be you know the future Reserve currency most of the audience that I was approaching which was clients and friends and family and sort of a little more Normy trafi would have just

Dismissed it out of hands right they would have wrote it off as oh okay this guy’s a Nutter a Nutter as you like to say in the UK yeah nut and uh and they would would have just ignored it so but yes today obviously I think it is

Greater than 50% chance that Bitcoin reaches its potential or some significant fraction of its potential so I think that’s the major change or update that I would do uh that I would do today what percent would you give on it failing fairly so well I guess it depends on

What you mean by reaching its potential I like to think so like the no-brainer is going to outstrip gold I don’t know 3 to one in favor odds I’ll say I’m not going to go like nine to one we’ll say three to one in favor does it regit potential and

Eat a big part of Fiat the debt markets you know real estate Monday Monday I’m giving a presentation to the local office of the Berkshire hathway real estate or realy agency got a friend that uh works there he’s like you come in now’s a good time

Okay and so I I’ve been thinking about on the presentation what what what percent of real estate am I going to tell them that it’s going to eat they’re not going to like it whatever percent I tell them but but it’s definitely not zero it’s definitely not zero exactly Danny

So yeah so in terms of reaching its potential and being I don’t know millions of dollars per coin I guess I say do I say greater than 5050 I guess i’ probably say grow than 50/50 see do you know what I say to that I say the only way you can figure that

Out is give a time frame to it because yeah because it’s actually binary it either goes down to like materially nothing and just like maintained by few people as a toy or it goes up forever I think that’s right yeah I don’t the middle case the the the the

Middle fat part of the distribution is kind of gone right yeah and the middle case doesn’t work for me because that says to me that oh there’s no point keeping money like it’s lost at store a value property therefore I need to take money out and put it somewhere else you

Definitely have to think in terms of expectations for the future there has to be a bid over time like a consistent bid not consistent not the same level all the time but there have to be more and more people interested in storing more and more of their wealth in it you’re

100% right about that and so I I put it as inevitably it overtakes gold yeah but if you give me a percent I’d say 5050 over maybe a decade for Bitcoin to overtake gold oh okay I say 50/50 on the time frame yeah yeah but I could also see it happen in

The next four years absolutely because it just becomes this thing that everyone suddenly gets and understands so when people ask me why it’s better well when people ask me about that question when clients do for example I respond with a question which is why is gold better than

Bitcoin and the only answer that I ever get is that oh it’s physical and I can see it and it’s tangible and then of course I have to respond that oh yes one of the key parts of my journey with Bitcoin was the realization that it’s 180° opposite

Right the best money has no physicality no use other than as money and it took me a while to actually internalize that conclusion some people get it faster for sure it took me a while but you can just say to these people okay so you still buy CDs you don’t use

Spotify you still order DVDs like everything it’s like this the one John Feer said to me John Feer said to me early on who him self was orange pill by W said to me he said in 250 years when we’re all flying around in our Millennium Falcons are we going to

Be sending large yellow rocks to each other or are we going to send Bitcoin it’s like of course we’re sending Bitcoin it’s only [ __ ] natural um I think another interesting thing to say to these people is that people like you like gold are buying Bitcoin but people

Who would never buy gold are also buying Bitcoin yeah I would never have bought gold gold but I bought Bitcoin my son would never have bought gold but he’s buying Bitcoin there’s all these other people who would never have bought gold but buying Bitcoin only gold people buy

Gold I think there’s definitely I think you have to segment the population but you’re you’re absolutely right that there are buckets of demand for Bitcoin that do not exist as demand for gold I’m by the way but they exist for the same reason as gold exists sure yes

Yes look I’m I’m one of these guys who’s like hard money assets great I would not be surprised if both Bitcoin and gold acre a similar amount of market capitalization over the next number of years so what does that mean that means gold let’s say doubles from 15 trillion

To 30 trillion and Bitcoin goes from whatever one in change trillion to 15 trillion you know what I’m saying yeah and so the multiple on bitcoin is catching it enormous Y and the Gap is closing and yet you know gold can still go up I don’t really care one way or the

Other that much if gold goes up or doesn’t you can answer if you want no it might be a client wanting to buy Bitcoin I think it’s my kids school so the public school has gotten very good at rooc calls messages if he’s late I get a turdy

Notice via the phone it’s actually smart I mean you know people pay attention to their phones more than they would pay attention to their children so listen I’ve I’m on my uh third or fourth cycle now I sat down to my friends I said you should buy Bitcoin they’ve not bought

Bitcoin sat down again said you should buy Bitcoin and they’re always like am I too late every question am I too late it’s too expensive blah blah blah blah and and like I know now I need a new sales pitch for them I know I do okay and I think Mark

Must just help me and it said it’s about understanding the game of money yes is that you need assets and cash flow whereas I think sorry I’m tapping the table most of my friends or people I know are not in Bitcoin they’re purely thinking of wages and how they can get

10% pay rise because of the house they want to buy their their wife and they always trapped in that kind of hamster wheel and sometimes they help perform inflation sometimes they don’t but they never build that density of capital that gives them breathing space apart from

You know 25 years they pay off their mortgage and then they might sell their house and down by the way I’ve started to see some of this uh people who are downsizing you know parents of friends who are downsizing to live off that Capital absolutely but they have to

Downsize to be a to afford their retirement and happens all the time in my neighborhood by the way right which turned over from you know these Bungalows that people built up and added on to and then the kids moved out and then you know what was I don’t know

$100,000 asset is now a Million Dollar Plus asset they just exit there you go and I think one of the things I’m going to change is trying to explain the game to my friends it’s like you cannot Escape unless you’ll build an assets and assets aren’t just your home but there

Are many assets that you can get20 worth or £1 worth just here or there there’s just not many but Bitcoin is one of those and I think I’m going to start with that one and start explaining to them to them and I think I’m going to be saying to them listen you’re thinking

Of entry and exit price all you need to be thinking about is entry and accumulation and nothing else one of the things I like that pitch I really like the oh I’ll have to tell him a lot more with that well I like the I really like the element of you can buy

Any percentage right you can you can stack daily you can buy small pieces you can buy large pieces it’s not like buying that second home where it’s like a bigle consideration right right it’s much easier to to build your position to take territory over time I like that a

Lot the other thing I like a lot about uh what Mark articulates is yeah is is Leverage is using debt he’s probably more aggressive than some he’s more aggressive than I am I’m always generally telling people to be cautious uh uh but um In fairness to Mark you

Know he did say he said you said death is a good tool but Mark was fair he said 90% of people shouldn’t be using it they don’t understand it they don’t understand the leverage they’ll get wiped out yes but for 10% of people you know understand their risks understand

Their risk tolerance understand where they could get wiped out that that’s good let me ask you a question about unit bias because you mentioned you know people think it’s I think you mentioned people I think it’s an issue um and the email the recent email from Satoshi referenced something along the lines of

You know he picked 21 million because that would be a reasonable level you know for a currency in the world or something like that please correct correct me but I wonder if that if he was thinking I think some people think that he was thinking of Like You Know

Parody per coin like dollar Bitcoin and I wonder if he was thinking of sat parody because it was obvious that you know each coin was divisible into 100 million stats and obviously those are two very different levels in terms of scale and yeah I mean we’ve as a community we have failed

To uh change the unit I think it’s fair to say I think the exchanges have not helped us with that they could have changed the unit but it doesn’t help their you know altcoin casino business and um is very aat is very far from a single Bitcoin div you know times 100

Million is a big jump H but um yeah look I agree with you it’s a it’s an issue which is why one of the reasons why the ETF is cool is you can just buy shares in ETF a lower price all right hot take uh I don’t think

Satoshi understood how big this could be as well as how finny did agreed I think Satoshi thought of this is co tech and it was a little bit Cipher Punk about it and if you go via the white paper I’m not going to reinterpret the white paper

The white paper was very much about peerto beer Commerce yeah I don’t believe at the time and therefore for me Satoshi wasn’t thinking years ahead when this hits $100,000 a coin in like 15 years there’s going to be a unit bias issue I don’t think he thought about that at

All I think how realized the potential of this even more so than Satoshi yeah I think one of the one of the quotes that I think back to on the I think it’s reasonable though on the Satoshi side yeah was was one CPU one vote right mhm when he said one CP or

Wrote One CPU one vote it makes you think oh he didn’t get that you know as6 were going to happen no which means he didn’t get that the scale was likely to reach what it did but you know we just don’t know no it’s it’s it’s it’s pure

Guessing the uni thing is an issue it’s good for the ETF people um it’s not good for headlines because the headline isn’t the Black Rock ETF share is $120 the headline is Bitcoins hit $100,000 a lot of people just got the uni buers has two problems I can’t afford

One and um I’m too late and shitcoins are cheaper yeah and I mean quote unquote cheaper yeah but the great argument against shitcoins are cheaper okay which one you mean Bitcoin cash okay well why does Bitcoin keep going up and Bitcoin cash is doing this no and I

I totally I obviously don’t believe that but I think that’s people jumped to that conclusion when they initially see Bitcoin yeah but it’s about getting that across and I think the point is we have to get across is this goes up forever forever Laura forever Laura no but I

Think that’s really important point it goes up forever like there’s no limit to where this goes it’s it’s not like oh yeah like in four years like no we’re done this is going to drop now like this goes out forever you have to understand the math you have to understand very

Early you have to understand inflation but this goes out forever and so all you need to think about is your entry agreed that’s what people have to figure out they have to do the work every cycle some percentage of them do the work um by the way I think that my

Ilk you know financial advisers wealth managers are doing the work I’m skeptical that they’re actually buying or that their clients are accounting for that much of the volume right now where do you think it’s coming from then I have a feeling it’s more retail and

Hedge funds to be honest with you I have a feeling that it’s more I’d love to see good data on this but I have a feeling that it will be that they will be a larger portion of the market 6 months from now um but that right now all of

Those who have done the work already are just front running it and so they should and make the lake comers pay up for those precious SATs because they’re worth a lot H yeah I mean I don’t I need the data but it’s an amazing pipe that’s gone into the Bitcoin

System it is uh it has changed the market structure I think it has other than perhaps Fred Krueger you know nobody nobody anticipated this zero bitcoiners uh anticipated the amount of demand that would come this fast via the ETF Channel In fairness people were pumping out that chart the gold ETF one

Saying look what happened after the Gold ETF launch and which was essent was a 10year bull run basically yeah which will be interesting to see if we actually have the same we don’t have a be Market but I guess the in elasticity of Bitcoin is why we have Bull and Bear

Markets whereas gold is elastic is yeah I think uh I am optimistic for the day that we don’t have Cycles in Bitcoin and also I am not going to assume that we’re there until I see it warning don’t get wrecked it is a bit

Weird though CU we are in a we are in a ball Market essentially because we broke the alltime high and I don’t it doesn’t feel like did we Peter did we break the alltime high yes so I think in terms I take the other side of that view I know

I’m a wet blanket which is that it’s not inflation adjust exactly and and for the whole first decade of Bitcoin inflation let’s just accept CPI I know we shouldn’t but just accept it for a minute if CPI was negligible through that period you know I think even CPI was something like

20% net from prior cycle to today so I think of alltime high is like 78k is know that yeah exactly you know the numbers Dan so you’re playing the alltime high at the at the purchasing power yeah that’s how I’m thinking about what about if you valued the all-time high at the

Relative cost of the individual of buying it so CPI has gone up real wages hasn’t gone up did we then break an all-time high at maybe 64,000 I like that argument I like that argument it’s it just goes to show everybody’s cost of living is different and yeah I think the

You got to say what is the what is the alltime high is it the purchasing power or the cost of the individual to buy it I think I think it’s the cost to buy it because that’s what you’re looking at that’s where the capital comes from yeah and it’s got more expensive because

Wages real wages haven’t gone up unless the majority of net buyers are those closest to the spigot and it’s got cheaper and it’s Larry Fin and his friends that’s probably the case exactly if you’re talking about you know number of coins getting bought at the margin let’s be honest it’s Rich guys

Who had their stocks their equities and the real estate go up and they have giant portfolios and they’re saying okay fine I’ll allocate 2% the [ __ ] I can do this I’ll peel peel off pieces of my multi 100 million doll uh in know real estate portfolio I’ll buy some magic ETF

Money yeah why not exactly but Bitcoin is for everyone bitcoin’s for anyone not everyone not every oh Fair it’s not for it’s not for Craig right you you’re right you’re right it is for anyone who’s willing to take the plunge which has gotten easier who can take the

Plung yeah well I I interviewed gladstein last week and that’s the big part of his message he simultaneously realizes that most of the world does not have Capital to save but also most of the world most of people will be better off in a monetary system that doesn’t

Cheat them all the time that’s the thing I’ve been trying to like get my head to an understand because we’ve traveled so [ __ ] much and we keep sorry we keep going to the these bloody places right and everywhere we go people talk about I’ve heard so many people talk about uh

Bitcoin you spot m is help people it’s just not it’s not true it’s bit Bitcoin is not bottom up it is adopted by people in the middle class absolutely everywhere you go yes there will be people in a social lower social lower parts of the socio economic ladder who

Will buy Bitcoin and it will raise them up cuz somehow they put some money by but most people are living hand to mouth they can’t [ __ ] afford it yes there will be some rich [ __ ] because you’ll get in and protect some of their billions but most of them are ignoring

It it’s the middle class who have the education and this disposable income to do this and they’re driving this and we will build out the middle class and we will be middle out I’m absolutely 100% Fally fundamentally believe this and therefore I believe like when somebody’s arguing about Bitcoin against it like uh

Peter shift or [ __ ] whoever online they’re arguing present State against somebody who’s arguing State end state is that there is enough Bitcoin in a country and enough of a shift in the economic system where Bitcoin backs it that that makes a positive better fairer system but if you that’s the state you

Have to argue people argue in different states does that make sense it does make sense and I agree with you you know your view of who’s using it now who will use it five years from now you know what does the economy overall or the political economy even look you like a

Decade or two from now now very different things and people I don’t even know how I you know the longer I go on the less I know I guess I mean I used to have firmer views about how I approach that issue when talking to people now I just

Try to listen and understand where they’re coming from cuz the notion of this thing being the base of the monetary system is still so far-fetched for most people right I I just don’t know if that if that resonates with your with your average Bitcoin interested or curious

Person in other words you’re right and also I don’t know if it’s useful for talking about Bitcoin with most people it is useful for talking about bitcoiners no it probably isn’t it probably isn’t it only works for uh yeah it works for autists like [Laughter]

Me all right J going to get some food you hungry uh unless there’s anything else on your list always always um no look I uh I sort of soft pitched you an idea for an episode which was uh my my husband is an autistic bitcoiner which I

Thought would play really well and we could get into that but but isn’t I’m I going to do that with your wife yeah well we could do that at some point that’s uh it might be a longer conversation yeah but like your your autism’s mild agree but my son’s is more pronounced than

Mine okay and I mine is more pronounced than my father’s right which is an interesting story in my humble opinion I don’t know I find it interesting because it’s my family but I don’t know if anyone else will yeah uh I mean I’m intrigued we could talk about it yeah we

Could talk about it right do you want to go and eat uh sure bu Why by Bitcoin by Andy Edom or just don’t read it and just buy Bitcoin or that do that exactly exactly or say you read it don’t read it but say you read it good to see you brother pleasure

Always