SHOW NOTES:
https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/podcast/bitcoin-adoption-the-halving-mining
“All of the different sub communities in Bitcoin are really starting to ask themselves and the other sub communities ‘why are you here? Are we sacrificing everything for number-go-up?’ Well number-go-up is kind of the whole thing if you want actual outsized influence over the system that is leaving everyone scrambling for anything.”
— Colin Harper
Colin Harper is Head of Research and Content at Luxor Technology. In this interview, we discuss Bitcoin adoption, media FUD, the impact of the halving on miners and we look back at the mining industry in 2023.
THIS EPISODE’S SPONSORS:
Iris Energy – https://irisenergy.co/
Swan – https://swan.com/
Ledger – https://www.ledger.com/
CheatCode – https://www.cheatcode.co.uk/
SUPPORT THE SHOW:
→ Become a Patron: https://www.patreon.com/whatbitcoindid/
→ Subscribe on iTunes
→ Leave a review on iTunes
→ Share the show out with your friends and family on social media
→ Drop me a line on hello@whatbitcoindid.com
→ https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/sponsorship/
SUPPORT BITCOIN
→ Donate to OpenSats https://opensats.org/
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00:00 Local govt. debt/incentives
00:11:57 Bitcoin fragmentation & ideology
00:23:55 Adoption chasm; media FUD
00:38:38 Mining facts
00:50:32 global mining decentralisation
01:05:22 Halving economics
01:16:09 Ordinals; mining predictions
WHERE TO FIND THE SHOW:
→ My website: https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/podcast/
→ Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2OOlzVV
→ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2ygc4W1
→ YouTube: https://bit.ly/3nyi9Ez
→ Rumble: http://tinyurl.com/rumblewbd
→ Fountain: tinyurl.com/43rdtnyd
LISTEN TO OLD EPISODES:
→ By guest: https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/guests/
→ By topic: https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/topics/
→ Transcriptions: https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/transcriptions/
WHERE TO FOLLOW ME:
→ Twitter: https://twitter.com/whatbitcoindid/
→ Medium: https://medium.com/@whatbitcoindid/
→ Instagram: http://instagram.com/whatbitcoindid/
→ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/whatbitcoindid/
→ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/whatbitcoindidpodcast
→ Rumble: http://tinyurl.com/rumblewbd
→ Website: https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/
→ Email list: https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/subscribe/
LEARN ABOUT BITCOIN:
→ Step by Step Guide: https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/learn-bitcoin
→ Training: https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/training/
→ Resources: https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/resources/
#Bitcoin #Finance #Economics
Pretty much lived there my whole life I wasn’t born there cuz my dad was working in Cyprus when my mom was pregnant but oh really yeah I was nearly born in Cyprus um but my mom and dad went out there to work was your dad a businessman
Diplomat or uh no aircraft engineer oh wow yeah so he um worked for Monarch Airlines and had an opportunity to go out to Cypress to turn planes around so he took my yeah not gonna pass that up no so he he took my brother and sister
My mom they all went out there and then clearly uh had a few beers one night had a look at Mama and then Mom got pregnant pretty quickly and then he didn’t want the hospitals weren right so he sent M back to the UK first okay so
She was staying with my granddad so I was born in reading but as soon I was born I was taking back to B right okay no I’ve lived lived in bed my whole life apart from 3 months in London and when I was at University in high Wickam yeah
It’s my town went University of highwick yeah that’s weird went to BU well the the only place that did the I wanted to work in the music industry ah you remember I did that fanine yeah and so they were the only one who did this course it was music industry management
It’s all about work in the music industry the course was terrible I quit my second year I like it’s [ __ ] uh but yeah know Bedford is uh it’s a very important place to me and um I’m trying to do everything I can to to lift it up
So today you’re in the room as I’ve declared war with the the local Council well it’s just insane to me that like they’re kind of picking sides like if there’s one football team that’s clearly descending through the ranks you might want to head your bets a little bit
Right and like just be open to the fact that maybe this one will have a better chance at actually putting Bedford on the map for football right versus another one I mean we already have we’ve already done it’s one of these weird things Colin it’s like you can only
Assume I mean for people listening you know they know I own a football club right and luxa thankfully is a sponsor really really appreciate that because we couldn’t do this without the sponsors but um we’re at a point where they’ve uh ccel the renewal of our lease with 2
Years left on it really yeah so in 2 years we don’t know where we’re playing they meant to have renewed it they gave be for toown a 9 year lease there are our Rivals now our next door neighbors but they um I’m not going to I’m I’m not
Going to suggest as somebody who’s in a liable lawsuit I’m not going to suggest why this happened but they uh they’ve not red our lease and it is to do with Bedford town so we I can say that because of the meeting we have with the council can you
Fight that well I am fighting this because the thing about these leases they are the the only reason they’re allowed to council the lease is to uh if they’ve got a new purpose for the site that’s nonf football yeah okay so otherwise they’re meant to renew and they also meant to
Find us somewhere they’ve canceled the lease they haven’t found us anywhere every deadline they’ve given us they failed to meet um there are certain people gloating around the town that we’re losing our lease it’s going to screw us so you have legal ground to actually fight this we do but they’re
Always kind of like loose legal grounds and you know suing your local council is a is a tough thing yeah but but in the end like I know what I’m doing for Bedford I know I’ll have popular support in the town and I know what councils are
Like and what you know what council’s do and but it’s it’s not a fight you want I want to work with the council like work with us right we we’ve got a ladies team that’s winning the league a men’s team that’s winning the league following on a
Promotion last year we put on a conference in April where 500 to 800 people are going to come to the town from all around the world the hotels are going to be full the restaurants will be full there’s couple of million pound of you know inflow to the town our club is
Being supported by people all around the world every game someone’s flown in from America or Canada or Mexico or Lithuania like we’re good for the town right what the [ __ ] are you doing right just show you that even uh kind of localities can have some [ __ ] uh political mess you know well
This is where Stephan L say see I told you Pete [ __ ] trust governments and I mean it’s look I don’t I don’t envy the work they have to do because I’m fully aware the budget restraint Council have and they have a lot of commitments a lot of uh uh social commitments welfare you
Know dealing with you know kids from abused homes and uh uh degenerate families and kids whose parents are drug addicts and abusive they’re dealing with mental health issues homelessness they they’ve got a lot to deal with I get it it’s it’s not an easy job but don’t interfere with the good
Stuff yeah you should remain impartial at least to that right like you shouldn’t be taking a side on this issue at all like you said if it’s good for the town if it’s good for the football club it’s good for the town yeah and they should just let it be well the
Problem is dealing with these councils um you’re dealing with often dealing with people haven’t worked in the private sector or had success in the private sector who are making decisions that affect the private sector you know and this is like somebody listeners like get on to bitcoin but
This is related all to bitcoin yeah it’s related to a lot of the things that are dysfunctional I think with just a lot of uh governance and governments at this point and like why there’s so much crisis of confidence I mean think what you want about him but um I was
Listening to Jared Kushner and Lex Freeman and one of the points that he made was you know in the Trump Administration they brought in a lot of private sector guys who actually knew the ins and outs of business and usually in the business world you don’t produce
Results then you get hand yeah and in the in the public sector that’s almost never the case like there’s and especially in the US like there seems to be never any sort of like ramifications for bad policy or bad decisions these people just end up becoming entrenched
Well who who lost their jobs in the in the in the public sector during Co yeah right while cafes and restaurants closing yeah who lost their jobs exactly there’s interesting I posted an AR article about on my Twitter about UK councils I mean at the moment there a
Huge issue with local councils and funding and um yeah I’ll get Danny to bring it up uh I tweeted I think they should have bought I think they should have bought Bitcoin just like yesterday or day before so if you go into um what’s the people just not wanting to
Support them or like it’s deeper than that um if you keep going there we go so Town Hall debts level staggering MPS one can you open up the article Danny so this is a really really interesting thing and it’s a really good Bitcoin lens for this the debt mounting at UK
Councils has reached staggering levels posing a risk to local Services the Public Accounts committee has said BBC analysis shows that UK councils owe a combin 97.8 billion to lenders equivalent to ,400 per person so I was like thinking how need money because we already know like our government’s over 2 trillion in
Debt now the local councils are in you know approaching a 100 billion of debt and I’m like where are they borrowing this money from I I don’t know who I mean one of the councils it’s thork black hole of 469 million debts reach what the what’s this yeah debts reaching 1.4
Billion uh scroll down a bit more Danny here we go look at woking debt of nearly what’s that about £18,000 a person who lives there mhm uh does it say anywhere where they’re getting this debt from well some of it might be coming from the uh US Financial system right so look at
This the council’s proposed 12 million next year including the removal of all public toilets a phase threeyear closure of a swiming pool and ending the funding for a theater it said leisure centers and 13 Sports pitches were all threatened with having funding removed so this is what all what happens is the
The good stuff goes yeah yeah Sports Theater Arts it all gets damaged just and what you have is you have I think these councils generally have people like I don’t even want to like directly attack them as individuals but as a structure it doesn’t have the skin in
Game of a private Enterprise and they can just make poor decisions and roll in roll out yeah but the effect of this is the people paying their council tax they’re losing pitches yeah and the funny thing and so they’re wondering why are we even paying this tax exactly so
They’re just they’re just it’s it’s an incom it’s a broken structure uh full of incompetent people experience you know this reminds me of I don’t remember where I read this but um someone made the point that a lot of the entitlements in Europe are actually propped up
Through the euro dollar system okay and through lend and through borrowing from U borrowing like US Dollars um and and and being intertwined with the US Financial system and um Edward Chancellor talks about this a little bit in the price of time it’s a really really good book been reading right now
And um I you know it’s kind of a depressing read but I i’ had always kind of heard it from bitcoiners and from other people on podcast like you’ve had some great macro um uh analysts on but I never really fully appreciated until I read this book just how much of the
Global Financial system ticks with the dollar anything that we do even in advanced economies like Britain right I mean we saw the guilt crisis recently when the FED started hiking rates there were insolvency um fears in in the British banking system and it’s it’s insane to me to think that just one
Currency and and one Federal uh agency’s actions not even Federal because the FED is supposed to be independent they can do something that just completely [ __ ] with economies all over the world and financial systems all over the world that’s the book that Luke growman recommended to us it’s really good I
Bought it I’ve not started it yet it’s it’s good it’s a little bit towards the end it kind of just seems like he’s saying the same thing over and over again because he kind of is but the thing that really struck me about it too is just how many historical analogues
There are to what’s going on right now you know like people always talk about Bitcoin in relation to like the Mississippi bubble which was the Mississippi company um which was a French company well a company started by a Scotsman actually I think his name was John Law he he immigrated to France
Started the Mississippi company company and basically the entire French financial system was propped up on shares of the Mississippi company and they were printing um they were printing I don’t know if it was what they called them back then maybe they called them Franks but they were or leras I think
Was what they called them they were printing French currency to buy this stock and it led to this huge bubble and the French um Financial system completely collapsed there was crazy inflation and this was one of the prequels to the French Revolution and why the French Revolution you know why
You had the aristocracy getting drug down the streets Guillotine things like that because there was this terrible inflation and financial crisis that was caused by all this financial engineering and there are so many analoges in history even in the US I mean he one of the biggest things that uh I took I’ve
Taken from that book is you know we talk about the Rober Barons in the late 1800s early 1900s um they were these tycoons that ended up kind of monopolizing all these different industries that related to the railroad and energy systems like oil and gas um Teddy Roosevelt was a big
Trustbuster trying to get the these trusts that were used to buy out all these assets and consolidate Industries together and basically all of that stuff happened when monetary policy was really loose when interest rates were super low and we’re kind of seeing the same thing right now with a bunch of other
Industries I mean [ __ ] like Amazon just bought MGM did they I didn’t see that Amazon bought MGM it was crazy I was on Amazon the other day I was watching a movie I think it was saltburn great movie and weird movie it’s said weird movie weird but man that who the guy who
Play the Title Character the Irish guy yeah [ __ ] brilliant that guy I mean he’s in so many films he’s so good he is he was in banshees of in aaran which is also a great movie um there’s a really if you like him there’s a really good
Film he was in called Cal with horses okay it’s a brilliant it’s an Irish film it’s brilliant I mean he’s been in a bunch of Irish films I mean he’s adored right now he’s breaking out I can see that UK Cinema’s a great man yeah we’re getting better and and and Irish Cinema
You know I know that’s not really the UK but anyway yeah well listen so so it’s really interesting you I’m I’m now really six years in Bitcoin let’s say six or seven years um and some yeah there are things that take time to Gro through experience so you hear theory of
You know Bitcoin why it’s important like the like libertarian Theory and why the state’s [ __ ] but I’ve always find things take time but over the last 12 months I’ve I’ve got so much Clarity over Bitcoin and so much Clarity over governance and Bitcoin itself and like Danny knows because I keep saying about
This I am just all 21 million and I know privacy is important know censorship resistance is important I know permission I know all these things are important but I am so I’m so in the world of 21 million the scarcity it doesn’t be any number but the 21 million
Being the thing that really genuinely fixes most of our problems and it just became so obvious over the the last year in that I feel like you have this I said I said this like your first four years in Bitcoin it’s like your tour Duty you’ve got a you really get kicked to
[ __ ] around the price goes everywhere but if you can survive four years usually you’re you should be net ahead and then once you get net ahead you get that boost that cycle boost you can really start thinking about Capital deployment yeah and the interesting thing about that is it’s it’s what’s
Happened is you’ve been taught about the value of money and time and your conservatives has been rewarded and then you can start making kind of kind of really smart decisions about deployment of capital and what I gotta realize once everyone starts to get this we start
Just growing the pie and we have more better deployers of capital like Danny will become a deployer of capital you become an allocator of capital and and as more people come into this you know ETFs come in and institutional they allow us to become uh they they accelerate our ability to uh deploy
Capital and what we’re really doing is we’re sucking away allocation of capital from idiots that’s what we’re doing like if giving it to New idiots in some places but I think of like FTX and like other things like that but I but I generally I agree with you no no and I
Think that this is um you’re saying your journey with Bitcoin um I found that each year I kind of have a new perspective or a different perspective sometimes I reneg on ideas that I used to have sometimes I come back to those same ideas after I’ve already kind of
Put them on the Shelf um but I think that what we’re seeing now especially with a lot of the like inscription stuff and with a lot of the privacy things with the ETF all of the different sub communities in Bitcoin are really starting to kind of ask themselves and
The other sub communities why are you here yeah and one of the things I always see from like maybe like the samurai guys it’s like are we sacrificing everything for number go up and there’s a part of me who you know kind of respects that position but then a part
Of me also says well number go up is kind of the whole thing if you want actual outsized influence over the system that is leaving everyone scrambling for anything right people can’t pay for [ __ ] people are saddled with debt here in the US if the number
Doesn’t go up then like you said we don’t have any influence yeah and you can’t actually affect the change on the world that you want to see so it’s it’s been um I think over the LA last year especially um to me was a big eye opener
In terms of when people talk about the Bitcoin Community it’s really just a patchwork of a bunch of different people with a bunch of different ideas just like anything right well the interesting thing about that is as we fragment you know as as a as a monoculture I think we
Can be effective in kind of bashing down the door and educating and you know when there’s fud from the mainstream media we can get out there and Community note people like we’re really effective like that but in terms of uh disseminating the ideas of Bitcoin to wider communities I think the fragmentation is
A good thing because I agree because the reality is Bitcoin is going to scale in adoption quicker than the this kind of culture that exists it’s a loose culture but actually that culture is fragmenting MHM and so what this means is the subcultures are going to just go out and disseminate to other
Groups all coming back to the to the protocol which has a rules of consensus that we all have to follow and we all have to understand and adapt to Y and so you know I’m I’m like I’m I’m with you in that I change gradually right every year
I rethink but I’m with you on that 21 million I think your point adds to that in that the 21 million fixes a lot but actually it fixes a lot with that growing influence it’s growing influence of voice and it’s gr influence of capital yeah Money Talks right and um
Going back to the fragmentation thing I think generally it’s a good thing um and I think it kind of for me kind of just confirms how it’s funny how something so concrete like Bitcoin you know it’s code it’s it’s these set rules that you know
As as long as your node is running them you can’t change it for the rest of the network it’s very concrete but people’s adoption of it is very abstract and almost postmodern like people see Bitcoin through the lens that they want to see the world so like BFI guys who or
Or like keynesians who don’t get it see it as a Ponzi they see it as antithetical to what money is which is issued by a state right um people who are privacy oriented see it as a way to say [ __ ] you to people who are trying to curtail their freedoms online and to
Surveil their activity people who want to get rich see it as their ticket their like like sure lottery ticket to make to build wealth and um all of these other things kind of you know we go down the rabbit hole or it’s Turtles all the way
Down um and the the one thing that I’m worried about and you’ve encountered this a lot is I don’t think a lot of bitcoiners realize because like some of them are very arrogant and they think they figured everything out and with like the whole shitcoin Crusades you
Know um they’re kind of falling prey to the same identity politics that has ins snared a lot of our culture especially in the US and you kind of been on the on the front line of that with a lot of stuff I we talking about it this week
Yeah and you know I think that that is something that I have talking about changing attitudes towards Bitcoin coin during the last bull market I was probably much more in the like hyper maximalist Camp I’m still a maximalist in the sense that like Bitcoin is the
Only thing I hold and that’s really as a more conservative thing I would speculate on shitcoins if I thought if I thought for sure I could make money on them I used to be more like that and then the more that I’ve gotten involved with some companies in the space and
Moved from journalism to the um a startup in the space I’ve backed off on that a little bit because it’s just if you’re looking through the lens the world through a lens of like a single ideology you’re probably missing a lot right like there’s often more truth in
The gray areas than in the black and white well the problem with that is if you allow that then to become your identity yes you’re putting a barrier between you or anyone who doesn’t agree with you yeah and and that I think is an issue because that that’s the identity
Politic politics you’ve talked about you that’s what what Trump accelerated what but but equally the the the DNC uh accelerated with the Democrat Party like I I I see it quite clearly now that ideology as identity is dangerous yeah it is and it’s such a boring way to live
It’s like you know I’ve got friends from all across the political Spectrum um you know I’ve got friends that think that transgenderism doesn’t exist and I’ve got trans friends and I’ve got friends who think that we need to abolish the state and I’ve got friends who are
Bootlickers and you know I disagree and agree with them on a lot of different things but we’ve gotten to a point where you can’t see people outside of their like ideological positions and you see them as basically totems for that ideology instead of who the person actually is you know that’s a
Good and I think I can add to that also a lack of forgiveness and acceptance that people can check yes I’ve said some pretty bootlicking things in my time I mean I’d never heard of libertarianism when I discover Bitcoin and people still call you a Bo yeah well I I certainly
Went into CO as somebody believed everything I was being told by the press and and the state and I got Fair reason to question it now and you know she sometimes go on a journey I mean we interviewed Dave Smith last week who’s he’s kind of like my Ron PA Dave Smith
Um the comedian yeah he’s like my Ron Paul right he’s he he is the one who’s because one of the things I I always struggled with with libertarianism is this like idea of no State idea of no democracy I like I I think it’s it’s a great ideal but I expect the Anarchy
Could be worse and I think a lot of freedom is fought for like we have rules around consensus that makes Bitcoin work I think we need certain rules around Society but like when I when I got with Dave I mean Dave explained to me like he understands that
You can you remember exactly how he said it but he did talk about libertarianism working well within democracy in the state he said you have to work within the confines well he yeah because he’s part of the libertarian party right so he’s trying to like subvert from within
Yeah and I think that I go back and forth on this a lot like when I was in during the last bll Market I was in my like total anap phase and now I’m in my phase where I’m like H certain regulations are actually good like per
Perfect one in Europe you can’t spray [ __ ] with Roundup and glyphosate I mean that’s why a lot of people assume you know people who say they’re gluten intolerant they’ll go to France and Italy and they’ll just eat all these [ __ ] carbs they’ll eat bread they’ll
Eat pasta and they don’t get sick but in here we spray all of our all of our grains with glyphosate which is an herbicide same it’s same thing as that’s in Roundup and it’s a known carcinogen right and you know farmers who use it for years end up having like thyroid
Cancer and all this other [ __ ] and you know what that’s banned in Europe there a lot of things that are banned in Europe that we do over here and that’s why our food is such [ __ ] like that’s why you have to go out of your way in
The US to actually eat Whole Foods rather than in Europe it’s like you walk around and part of this is a cultural thing too I mean you can go to any city or town in Europe and there are markets everywhere yeah which is awesome bakeries yeah B bakeries that’s a good
One I mean we like bakeries as a concept in the US only exists in like artisanal ways right like all the things that we consider artisanal in the US are just kind of like business as usual and in Europe and in the UK um so yeah it’s
Like um and I I hear every argument against it as well but like I think building regulations are important building regs are important you we saw what happened in China with the earthquake the buildings that didn’t follow the regs and weren’t propably regulated collapsed people died I think
There are things that you learn about when you’re building buildings or having fire regul we have fire regulations at my football club and my club okay if we didn’t have those regulations if they didn’t exist I could let as many people into my club as possible right you know
I think our limit 230 I can probably get 400 in there but if we have a fire those regulations are set that all those 400 people won’t get out and therefore certain amount will die that regulation is set because 230 people can exit those two exits in the amount of time that’s
Needed for when a fire alarm goes off I’m okay with that regulation I’m okay with the regulation that we have to have um uh um what are they the carbon dioxide extinguishers in there I’m okay with the regulation that we have to have the uh fire exis uh sign posted I’m okay
With this because I think those regulations are important H I don’t think I don’t think they make our club worse and I don’t buy the argument that well if you if there were no regulations for fire safety well people would go to the club that has properly explained
That they’ve done no no people won’t [ __ ] do it they’ll fill their clubs yeah and we’ve seen we’ve seen what happens when the club sits on fire we’ve seen people die so like I’m okay with some we just have too many yeah I My Hope Is with Bitcoin is when you suck
The power away from the state or the local councils and they have a budget they have to keep and they can’t get out of because there is no money printer then we have sensible regulations not oh what regulation should we do today right you know we don’t have that con like a
Bit like what m is doing out in Argentina he’s getting rid of a lot of the [ __ ] you know we have I think regulations that that basically stop people dying and stop people stealing kind of important I would agree with that yeah so anyway man an 80 page
Report not just me um but yes 80 81 Pages very fat too much I’m glad it’s done how long did it take you uh about a month of like so uh you know the groundwork so part of the problem is is like half of the data I can’t collect
Until after the year ends right so like network data hash price Asic prices all of that kind of stuff I need to wait there’s some things that I can get started on like public minor data cuz that’s comes from their Q3 financials so like those were filed back in November
And things like that and so um that kind of stuff I did like uh second half of uh December and then second half of January was all the other stuff and then formatting it making sure it’s designed copy editing things like that so wow yeah so what’s the tldr how bullish did
It make you um bullish on what life so uh so the so we we had a who who did we discuss crossing the chasm with oh who was that it was only yesterday uh was it Harry oh yeah it was Harry we did a show with Harry S we talked about
Crossing the chasm do you know that book it’s about like um uh Tech Trends Tech Innovations you know you have with the early adopters and you late adopters lagars but there’s a Chasm like the chasm is almost into the mainstream right right you I see yeah and some
Feels like we’re there right now with Bitcoin yeah cuz sometimes you yeah here you go innovators Vis yeah okay I’ve seen this chart I’ve seen this chart right and the thing about the chasm is sometimes you can’t cross it you know there’s a bunch of innovators are interesting like something like pgp
Would be an interesting one yeah yeah because yeah that’s a good point there are innovators that that built it Vis sort it never but no one’s using proton mail everyone’s using Gmail right like no one’s using S I mean some people are using signal but the majority of people
Aren’t yeah yeah I’d say we’re probably in the pragmatist a conservative stage at this point well I don’t know pragmatis I think just I think we’ve just arrived here we just crossed the C be my guest and it’s tough to cross that Chasm because you have to get that main
It has to have a mainstream appeal yeah a bit like uh the early days of the internet there was a day you you discovered Google you oh oh my God this gives me every result I need and you always used it and you told everyone about it right not everyone cares about
Pgp and their emails being encrypted right but then could you say across the chasm when like the vast majority of people do use endtoend encrypted messaging even if they don’t know they are well that’s the thing is like https right I mean that’s encrypted web traffic so like people are using
Encrypted stuff even if they don’t know it I maybe that’s a different argument though because that’s B an abstraction away from it well it’s an abstract exactly and it’s something that is done by the developer it’s something that’s done by the developers on the back end
To make sure that web traffic is secure right it’s not something that we are consciously doing as as as Inc consumers being like you know what I don’t want people to read my messages so I’m going to make take this extra yeah that’s fair yeah uh but you can you can pick other
Examples like the internet crossed the chasm at some point right Google crossed the chasm AI is probably crossing the chasm right now maybe ahead of it and and you know Bitcoin I feel like up until about a year ago it was still you know the innovators the enthusiasts the
Crossing the chasm for me is a few things we’ve crossed it when there’s mainstream adoption well we have ETFs that make mainstream exposure possible and their exposure means is a big poll of adoption and we have we cross the chasm when when the media repor in it just becomes accurate just becomes
Accurate I’m not I’m not holding my breath for that one you know what but I think it’s happening I think I think you know you’ve got to think of your career as a journalist if you are misreported and you’re getting Community noted constantly you can’t get away with that
I mean Jamie Diamond can’t get only today in Davos he was saying it was for moneyers I I will actually the reason why I will disagree here is because so I I agree with you generally that like we’re starting to get better journalistic coverage I think it’s coming from specific journalists but I
I’m kind of at the point with so much of Us Media and Western media in general that like accountability doesn’t really matter anymore because it’s all about the narrative that you’re weaving for people who are just confirming their priors right so like when when my grandparents would watch Fox News it
Doesn’t matter because they already believe what they’re being told when my you know like kind of like blue dog Democrat uh liberal leaning in-laws read the New York Times they’re just gonna it’s going to confirm what they believe and they’re just going to kind of be
Okay with it and you know in terms of mainstream media until something changes significantly with the way that we consume media and there are some great people trying to you know there are the Matt taies and the Barry weisses of the world and the Michael shellen Bergers
Who are doing Independent Media I think that that media will have a better shot at actually accurately portraying these things but you know when I read the New York Times talking about Chinese Bitcoin mines and they’ve got some National Security expert on there being like yeah
Well the big risk is that they can cause a national Brown out by coordinating their electricity consumption and and ramping up at a time when the grid is in a shortfall it’s like what are you talking about that’s not how any of this works but it got printed with the New
York Times and my in-law my father-in-law asked me about it and I was like man I was kind of surprised they printed that I shouldn’t be but that was just like so egregiously wrong and he said well you should write them about it I was like they don’t like
They’re not going to be like oh well actually this was like letter to the editor it’s like your last Bitcoin article was unfairly biased like they don’t give a [ __ ] what I have to say it’s it’s all coordinated yeah but I I again I think
As we cross that gasm I I feel there’s a strong alignment between understanding Bitcoin and truth I feel there’s a strong alignment with it and I feel like as we cross that cm and we get over to the conservatives and Skeptics I feel like media is going
To have have to change with that because does any New York Times article any CNN show have as much reach as a say a Joe Rogan show okay that’s so that’s fair like media in general is starting to change and those New Media sources will reflect different truths I think that’s
Probably right yeah and we need good ones because not all these independent people are good no some of them are are shocking themselves but but I feel like there is a a collapsing and a Breaking of the traditional media I mean the problem with like news it’s shipped for
Free with with your your um cable TV you know satellite TV in the UK you just get it you get it shipped with you but we’re also moving to a time where people I think we’ve got the consumption of podcasts like this other podcasts I would agree with that you consumption
Stuff on Twitter uh not many people my generation and younger certainly my sons are watching any 24-hour news and no and it’s the the the ratings are shocking I don’t remember I was listening to to Rogan a while back and it was something like the prime time slot only got like
50,000 viewers that’s insane I know right it’s like we have a kicking CNN’s I know isn’t that wild yeah it’s it’s it’s cool and and you know I I love long form podcast for that reason CU you know for the first time since radio was really prevalent you’ve actually you
Know radio hasn’t been relevant for years but you know you can have people kind of just turning on when they’re washing dishes when they’re doing a workout when they’re driving to work um you don’t have to rely on being Tethered to your TV and seeing like I know this
Is cliche but seeing like 5 minute segments over like you know it’s like so how do we solve the problem in Gaza and in Israel and it’s like a f minute segment with like four people on a panel you know well I mean I try and think
About when do I listen to the radio which is you know um you know 24 hour and when do I watch scheduled TV the only scheduled TV I watch is sports yep same because it has a start time a finish time right and I very R the only
Time I ever listen to radio funny enough is if I’m in the US and I’ve hired a car and I’m driving I say I’ve got a 4our drive I have a flick through the radio because I kind of like Republican radio like talk back radio yeah I find it
Really funny just to listen oh it’s hilarious generally speaking I consume audio books podcasts YouTube channels and snippets on Twitter any different no not at all I don’t even have regular TV on my tvi but I think there’s also like an incentive mismatch for the journalist
That maybe it may not always be their fault like if they’re preparing for like a five minute News segment and they have to do something on Bitcoin mining they’re going to go to like the deis of the world because they’re like The Trusted sources they’re not going to go
Find like a Callin article and so I think also it’s like time pressure on the journalist side I completely agree with that and I think this has been a big problem with most of the mainstream media um because so Bitcoin often would only become relevant for them to cover
When they were going to get the clicks forward during bull markets they’re not keeping a full crypto journalists on staff like now Bloomberg and some of the other ones in Forbes they’ll do good job yeah yeah they do they’ve really I I work with uh Forbes as a senior
Contributor and um shout out to um Steve uh Steven their head of research for that Lee huan’s there now as well um but one of the problems was when there’ be a bull cycle basically they just grab like the youngest person they can find who’s hip and it’s like you cover Finance you
Cover Tech or you cover um like something else like politics and they’re like okay you need to learn this and write articles about it and it’s such a dense field to cover 100% And it’s it’s impossible if you’ve only just jumping into it to really be able to parse
Through all the [ __ ] because there’s a lot of [ __ ] well if if I think of uh you think of the mainstream like BBC or Sky News I think there’s probably four categories of Bitcoin they cover record prices yeah price dumping uh a massive fraud like FTX or some environmental attack yeah that’s
That’s and that’s the that’s the only thing they do and it’s funny you say the environmental I think you nailed those four categories and that’s the only time they really cover Bitcoin mining and that’s sort of changing after the China mining band in 2021 as so much of as so
Much more mining was was reshored onto the US and into Canada especially here in North America I think that the coverage for mining certain places did a very good job of getting reporters on that beat like CNBC with Mackenzie sigalos is a good example she is good
Yeah and she would actually she used toh talk to some of our team members and she would actually take the time to ask the right questions but going back to this thing the chasm I think that that event for Bitcoin mining in general was us crossing the chasm in the mainstream a
Little bit in the sense of understanding you know just what is going on here I think Bitcoin mining funnily enough if you can kind of explain it to certain people they may think it’s all worthless but they actually see what’s going on behind the scenes whereas before they
Think Bitcoin is just a number on a screen they see these farms and they see all this Hardware it really concretizes it for them and they see okay there’s actual real industry that is going into this now real jobs yeah real jobs you know real you know Real Construction
Real labor real on-site stuff um now if you tell them that they’re basically just playing a lottery that kind of you know kind of throws them back into the realm of abstraction it’s actually why I think the um the the it’s not an anachronism but the inaccuracy that know
People will still say Bitcoin miners are solving complex math problems they’re really not it’s a guess they’re just guessing numbers yeah yeah and but that’s less you know I think when you tell journalists that that seems wrong to them because they’re like there’s no way that they’re just guessing a random
Number over and over again there has to be something more to this which is like no literally just spitting out numbers until you get the right one but the way I I always explain that I say like it’s a guessing game but the more the more of
These uh as6 playing the guessing game the more secure the network is and you want security cuz it’s money and that’s it I think it’s much better to show and we’ve I think we’ve made some ground in what’s happening with like gridless in Africa yeah by the way shout out my son
He started work at gridless in Kenya two days ago are you serious yeah that’s good for him awesome he flew out to Nairobi big shout out to Eric um I don’t remember his last name but he’ll be here today really that’s cool I’d like to
Shake his hand and meet him cuz that is is for me one of the coolest use cases um terms of like actually monetizing otherwise wasted energy in places that need it most well we we just went out there saw it saw it with our own you filmed there we filmed there that’s
Awesome the place was incredible and it’s funny cuz it at night I mean I didn’t see this but it got explained to me at night it goes completely dark but then you can see these little areas of light this when we were having dinner it
Was so cool we were sat in this field having dinner and I was sat next to the guy who built the hydro site years and years ago and it’s never really made economic sense before Bitcoin mining um and we were sat having dinner and there’s like patchy light every now and
Again but pretty much everything’s dark and he pointed at like the Foothills and was like all those lights are on because that Hydro site you saw today in Bitcoin so sweet and and I can’t tell you how like poor this Village was it’s literally almost mud Huts is mud they’re
The ones with light yeah the poorest people you’ve you’ve ever seen and and this is one of those I think for most mainstream people this is what’s counterintuitive about Bitcoin mining because they’re hit with the headlines of like it uses this much energy and it’s like hang on guys that’s not always
A bad thing that can actually be a good thing because if that energy is not being used then no one’s paying for it then it can’t be reinvested the money from that the revenue that you would be making can’t be reinvested into other energy generating assets I’ll give you a
Little example right this Village poor very very poor Village some one of the poorest places we’ve seen but we went along with the people who worked at the mine we drove up there and as we’re driving back we stop in this Village and we get some cold drink drinks and the
Reason the drinks are cold is cuz the guy’s got the little shop now as a fridge so we had a reason to stop there cuz he had cold drinks and the reason he could sell cold drinks he’s got a fridge the reason he’s got a fridge because
They’ve now got power and so you just see this like one little bit of new productivity those secondary effects from it yeah and and and then what does he do he earns a bit more money what where do where does he allocate that Capital it’s just tiny example but it’s
That very clear example is that you give people energy you allow them to become more productive and so so that a great story but we have it this week I mean the US has been hit with some storm yeah um yeah we’re seeing all the data now
Coming in from Texas where the miners have powered down to provide the extra power and so I think we’re starting to get those the real evidence that makes those who write the def of the world the people who write these or contribute to these nonsense articles we can Community
Note them we can highlight them they’re just talking [ __ ] yeah they are and on the Note with the storms in the US just looking at data from hash r index today apparently like I think it was something like 119 EXA hases came offline that’s on the 3-day average so for those that
Don’t know when you’re calculating bitcoin’s hash rate you basically have to look at network data like uh difficulty and transaction times to back into that uh metric there’s no live metric you can average it out on we usually we do it for three seven and 30-day averages and so the 3day you’re
Looking at swings more or less in real time and it was like 119x of hashes came Offline contextualize that what percent of the hash rate is that that was like a fifth of the hash rate wow yeah or a six of it I think it was at like 600 or
Something like that on the three-day that’s like again High probably because there could be wild swings right if blocks are coming out more quickly then it’s going to you know or someone or miners are extremely lucky during a period it’s going to seem to be more
Hash rate than it is but yeah anywhere from like a fifth to a sixth of the network hash rate came offline did did that impact Brock production during that period yeah so let’s take a look which is actually good for us you’re still mining right yeah we’re going to get a
Negative difficulty adjustment here soon man it’s been okay so going back to what you you asked me about did it make me bullish when I wrote this report one of the things that it did make me is it kind of tempered me because going into 2023 things were in the [ __ ] you know
Hash price was at like alltime lows hash price is how much money a minor can expect to make from a given quantity of hash rate Bitcoin was in alltime lows these public miners were puking in their valuations core just went bankrupt but then 2023 delivered everyone a gift
Right yeah sweet so um if you you look to the left here you’ll see uh 10 minutes and 27 seconds so the average block time so far in this Epoch has been 10 minutes and 27 seconds the target’s supposed to be 10 yeah so blocks have slowed down quite
Significantly actually as a result we got we’re about 80% through this Epoch so I think in like three days we should get a negative difficulty adjustment just clarify for everyone what you mean by Epoch just in case anyone doesn’t know yeah so difficulty Epoch is basically where the difficulty is for a
Two-e period after it adjusts so every two weeks or 20 2016 blocks bitcoin’s difficulty adjusts and so right now we’re about 80% through the current Epoch and difficulty is at an all-time high of 73.2 trillion and it does that to keep the block time as close to 10
Minut as possible corre yeah yeah and the reason for that to Danny’s point is as more blocks as more miners come online there’s more hash rate you’re more likely to produce blocks more quickly so if that happens then the difficulty raises it becomes more difficult to mine and if miners come off
The network then it lowers to make sure that we can stay within that 10 minut an average once once you really like I don’t know the difficulty I’m not the first person to say it but it really is like it’s genius it’s genius and it’s the thing that makes Bitcoin really
Function as it does yeah but so it looks like we’re probably going to get a difficulty adjustment hash price is at $84 per petah hash per day so for to contextualize that for people if you have like 10 New Gen miners like an s19 J Pro that are rated at 100 ter hases
You’ll be making about $84 per day in mining Revenue if you’re hashing with a full paper share pool like luxer okay so so our gift we can see it just there in 2023 Brut so the gift you were talking about is ordinal right yeah basically and what happened um what
Happened because of inscriptions and also and bitcoin’s price rise too right so like Bitcoin went from 16 to like 40K over the course of 20123 as a result hash price averaged like $74 or $75 per pet hash per day over the course of 2023 that’s not very good historically but if ordinals and
Inscriptions did not exist it would have been much lower than that it would have been maybe been in the 60 range but doesn’t that always average out like if if ordinals and inscriptions uh ended up contributing a cons consistent amount of Bitcoin the miners will just become more
Competitive and eventually it comes down anyway like doesn’t it always just to get to that marginal cost so yeah um it’s hard to say right because I think that there are two factors here one of the factors is that a lot of the public miners who make up like 24 25% of the
Hash rate um they have extremely low power costs and in some cases even when they’re not making any money they’re staying on because they have ppas that they have to fulfill and they also can they can raise debt they didn’t raise much debt last year they rais a [ __ ] ton
Of equity because their uh their stocks were ripping like I think it was like four stocks raised over 100 million in equity one of those was Marathon it was like $600 million from Equity sales so those guys can stay on a lot longer the other thing is too you have you know
Miners in lowcost production areas like Russia who are you know basically getting their energy for nothing that we can get it for here in North America and they’re going to stay online regardless now to your point if hash price is higher there are going to be minors and
We actually saw this if you look at Nona from coin metrics they’re going to be miners with older machines that turn them back on back s so they’re very small but it’s like it was like a percentage point that came back online over 2023 as a result of hash price
Ripping so are it private companies in Russia or is it public it’s private yeah yeah because none of the public companies in the West can do business in Russia no I kind I meant is is it government oh um that’s a good question I don’t know I don’t know enough about
That I talked to some Russian miners at in the at uh bitmain’s um at their uh uh mining Summit in and not in Dubai in Hong Kong and they said that it it to me it seems to be that it’s a lot of private miners um some of it is public
In as much as it’s like a public official who has interests kind of like the same thing we saw in China right um but I was telling Danny before the show bitm was saying that and some secondary sellers in the in the Asic market so the computers they were saying that Russia
Was their biggest customer in certain quarters last year I think it was like Q2 or Q3 they were like buying up rigs by the boatload this a new Cold War Asic Cold War I think it’s um so it’s you got to contextualize it with the Ukrainian
War because um as I understand it you know Western sanctions just cut off a bunch of Russians from from the Western financial markets so all these Russians were starting to look for yield and they were starting to look for alternative Investments well Russia’s got a [ __ ] ton
Of oil [ __ ] ton of natural gas Wells right and a [ __ ] ton of flare gas and so what was the obvious choice was then to just throw a bunch of miners on there or even power plants right like coal and natural gas power plants and so now
Bitcoin mining has kind of emerged as this alternative investment class that these Russian oligarchs and these Russian investors can tap when they’re cut off from the rest of the western world you know huh which is interesting I mean it just goes to show you never really know you know the downstream
Effects of all these different policies so oh man insane Okay so so um going back to your 8 page report what rather than say what are you bullish what are you most bullish on what what are the key standouts for you maybe in terms of like things that highlight the maturity
Of the Bitcoin Network yeah so I think that the crazy thing is that even when um I mean like I said we had a pretty decent year last year for hash price more decent than I thought we would have cuz you know for for to contextualize it for your listeners we
Enter 2023 basic at alltime lows so bitcoin’s alltime low for hash price is like $55 per pet hash per day so again if you have 10 s19 J Pros you’re making about 55 bucks a day and so it was looking really Bleak and we had a uptick
From that but does that become like a floor price though how do you mean like a like is there like a floor price where it never goes below that no there isn’t no I mean theoretically yes because if it gets too unprofitable then you have
More Miners And so this is what we call um like you said you said equilibrium it’s like supply and demand equilibrium um it’s a constant um tug of war between uh mining economics and the miners actual cost and so if it becomes too unprofitable to mine more people turn
Off difficulty goes down then it becomes more profitable and so you know and then uh vice versa if it goes up but anyway we had $75 per pet has per day last year and in 2022 it was $123 per ped has per day for the average because even though
2022 was a bare Market you still had time when Bitcoin was at like you know 40 uh 50 40 30 and difficulty wasn’t as high so um the thing that this report taught me you know hash rate and difficulty basically doubled over the course of last year so hash rate on the
7-Day average went from 255 xhes to 516 xah hases and difficulty went up uh by 103 or 104% from 35.3 6 trillion to 72.0 6 trillion it’s just consistent growth yeah and so that’s the thing that you know it’s because of not just chip advancement so a lot of new Next
Generation machines like the S the S9 XP s9k Pro the M50 series and now the M60 series from what’s Miner these are coming online they have higher hash rates they have low they have better efficiencies so they’re better at producing more hash rate for Less power
Input but it’s also just kind of like what I was saying you know as long as there’s someone with low cost of power if if they have dollars if they have no uh wherewithal if they have no how they’re going to deploy hash rate right so um it’s just kind of constantly
Ticking up so I mean not to be cliche because people always say this but yeah I mean the network has never had more computing power on it and in theory has never been more secure um the other thing that uh I took away from the report is that the death of public
Miners has been much overstated and I’m I’m I’m one to kind of eat crow here cuz I thought at the end of last year it’s like these companies are going to be [ __ ] if something doesn’t happen is this when like Cole was going bankrupt and yeah and they’re emerging from
Bankruptcy they shav down their debt a little bit um that’s not an endorsement to buy core no one knows what’s going to happen um but you know like I said a lot of them were able to raise just fuckloads of equity so Marathon raised 681 Million last year clean spark raised
342 million Riot raised 303 million bit deer raised 104 million those were the top four Equity raises um and like almost none of them took out debt last year and I want to hedge that by saying almost none of them I don’t think any of
Them did and part of the reason for that is is debt is becoming very expensive for them the FED raised rates so the kind of Asic financing deals that we saw back in like 2020 2021 where miners would take on debt from these um Finance years like Galaxy [ __ ] Foundry did this
Um they’re no longer doing that because the interest rates are too untenable but their stock prices were ripping so it was really it was it was favorable for them to dilute shareholders yeah issue equity and because of that they paid down debt they’re also funding operations so um
You know how much of the HH is in the US o that’s a good question I think it’s probably shrunk um it probably peaked somewhere and and just for listeners this is totally spitballing based on like it’s not spitballing there’s a loose methodology by looking at public miners
Yeah and we’ve looked at like um kind of luxer business data for the private miners to kind of fill in the gaps probably peaked somewhere like 45 40 45% now you know it’s probably somewhere in the ballpark of 35 or 40 okay interesting would we worry if a certain
Amount of hash rate hit the US like if it’s 50 60 70% because in that hyper competitive market of public miners there is that interest in growth growth growth I I personally don’t want that much in the US I I think that the probably easiest attack Vector for you
Know the State against Bitcoin mining would be the public companies I mean I mean so okay let’s game that out they take control of the public miners they direct all the hash rate as a 51% attack I mean is it I think that I think it’s more like censorship so like basically
And you know you saw Marathon tried to do this a while back where they like advertised mining ofat compliant blocks where they basically took um they took a filter for their block production and they filtered out addresses that are on the OFA sanctions list and what you
Could essentially have is let’s say you had 50% of the hash rate all in public mind all in the US which would be a stretch because a lot of these miners are expanding to like Latin America some of them are in Iceland or Norway or Sweden some of them like Marathon are
Setting up in the Middle East but uh what you could have is you could have the US government going to them and saying you need to build a proprietary pool that excludes these addresses from your block production and then you would basically have a censorship filter through those public miners okay I mean
Annoying but someone’s still going to still going to yeah still going to get into a block at some point my favorite theoretical attack in like from a regulatory side um and I don’t know if it actually works in practice Bob bnet was the first person I heard talk about
This I don’t know if it was his idea but is the idea that regulate if there’s too much public mining in the US Regulators could go like turn up the day after a difficulty adjustment and just force them all to turn off then that could Le
Lead to like a year until the next diff difficulty adjustment and blocks just yeah that’s interesting I don’t just knowing how like the separation of Powers works in the US that would be really hard to pull off just for the fact that that would be challenged in
Court super hard right and also the utilities would have an incentive there to not have that happen because basically you’re like the government is going and telling their clients that they can’t do certain things and the utilities would say no no no they have a contract with us you can’t just tell
Them that they can’t turn on yeah you know so I mean is there like if we go like full fascist mode of course that could happen currently I don’t really see that as being a problem but I could be wrong I don’t you know who knows well
It’s one of the reasons I’ve become Pro ETF because I think the more people have Bitcoin or Bitcoin exposure which is almost anybody who’s got some kind of portfolio account now but um anyone’s got some kind of exposure is now incentivized to be team Bitcoin and we’ve certainly got uh Fidelity team
Bitcoin we’ve got Black Rock who you know let let’s let’s be real let’s be realistic about Black Rock you know they’re not the they’re not the most how do I put it let’s just say it’s good to have Larry on your side it’s nice it’s good it’s also scary though it is but
It’s like this is the great thing about Bitcoin like all our incentives aligned we’re 21 million yeah we everybody is aligned apart from the the money printers but that’s that’s just very small yeah but to col sensorship point they’re not aligned on that they’re not aligned on like they may want uh all
Public miners in the US to follow an noat compliance yeah look that would be terrible hopefully and hopefully it’s not going to necessarily have to happen because I I’m kind of of the mindset that public miners will continue to diversify outside of the US I think that
Um you know but even if they did that the the tentacles of the state stretch the even if they you know to your point even if they did that um you know they still might force them to do that because they’re domiciled in the US like
That that’s true not all of them are some of them are domiciled in Canada um some of them are domiciled in other uh jurisdictions around the world like Northern data is a German company kind of the uh restrictions Man Canada and Canada’s sad I mean it’s they used to be they used to
Have more hash rate than the US now I think their share based on our most recent report on them on on Bitcoin mining in Canada is like four or five% and you know and it’s hard for a lot of Canadian miners unless you’re entrenched to actually get new power
Blocks like they they’re just like not they’re they’re not extending new PPA to especially incoming miners if you’re grandfathered in it’s a little bit easier that’s why bit Farms you know they’re they’re kind of setting up shop and they’ve they’ve been in Argentina for a while they’re expanding in
Paraguay you know have they gone into Europe as well um let me check I’ll pull up that chart you you put in the report that was cool I think that they have a little bit in maybe they have a little bit in Sweden or Iceland no they don’t um the
The public miners that I know of in Europe are Northern data uh bit digital bit deer and Hive and they’re all in the Nordic countries Iceland Norway and Sweden so this is quite cool chart showing where these miners are based Yeah so basically it looks at it’s kind
Of like a um density map of public miners by megawatt under uh management so it looks at Canada the US parts of Europe and then parts of Latin America and then also Bhutan and UAE and basically I group the miners based on their hash rate footprint so it’s under
51 megawatts 51 to 100 megawatts 101 megawatts to 300 and over 300 megawatts and um you know as you can see right like the biggest one currently for Republic minor that we know of in Latin America is in Argentina and that’s bit farms and it’s like I think like 60
Megawatts um and then in the US it’s just huge I mean you just look look at Texas I know Texas they’re just everywhere man and and the overlap and the ones that are like you if you see like one in the middle like right there
I think that’s who is that that is one of Hut Eight’s facilities and it looks like it’s marathon in the middle of it if you look at that like if there’s a DOT within another dot that means that that minor is hosted there uhhuh so that’s one of hut8 facilities that it
Currently manages thanks to its merger with us Bitcoin um and if there’s overlap like in Nebraska it’s the same thing I just didn’t put them overlapping because they I didn’t put them in the middle because they were like managing the same amount of megawatts I’m I was
Surprised there’s any in New York Hydro in New York right there’s a lot of hydro and the interesting thing about New York and this is kind of a um you’re seeing this in the r R belt too I’ve thought a really good you know a good documentary might be something like Rust Belt
Revival for Bitcoin mining because basically what you’re seeing in New York you had a lot of industry in Upstate New York and a lot of Industry near the border with Canada because Niagara Falls there’s a lot of hydro yeah so you had a lot of industrial um big industrial footprint a
Lot of manufacturing that’s just totally been offshor so you have these massive warehouses you have all the power infrastructure but no one’s using it and so the Bitcoin miners basically came in they’re like well this is kind of already there’s warehouses here there’s electrical infrastructure and so a lot
Of them have kind of filled in the gaps um you know one of our mines uh well we used to host here we don’t anymore luxer uh hosted some rigs for R R&D in Illinois and it was a it was a former I think uh steel uh Refinery um or either
That or it was like a girder manufacturing plant maybe they didn’t refine the steel but it’s just in the middle of nowhere in Illinois and no one was on the land and then miners kind of came in and started making use of some of the warehouses and the energy that
They had there can we see Europe hey they’re still there man there’s some yeah yeah well the Nordic parts of Europe I mean uh makes it a bit digital if invited us over oh cool they said they will fly us over to go and see oh
You should totally do it the one in Iceland yeah yeah they dud that would be so are they geothermal yeah I think so yeah it’s funny they actually put out a press release where they were like we are not affected by the the volcanic eruptions so to make sure their
Shareholders were freaking out like is your facility submerged in mol in lava yeah but is that is that the only place in Europe basically yeah I mean there are there are smaller shops these are public miners there may be private mining elsewhere there might be private miners elsewhere like there was a
Company and um at the world digital mining Summit they’re Italians they claim that they’re mining there the problem with Europe is just so much the energy is so damn expensive yeah but the thing is like we know can we find that number on curtailed wind energy in the
UK it’s just right okay so that’s a great Point can you get the Energy Mix first right for the UK D the energy mix for the UK is fascinating we’ve invested so much in offshore wind right um mainly up in I think it’s mainly up in the
North Sea there’s a lot out uh in the Irish as well right so Renewables is 20 point so 8 gwatt of wind yeah this is right now this is live yeah is that Europe or UK this is the UK okay okay all right so do we know with that 8 gws
A day I I don’t this is this is uh Cent consumption 110 pound per megawatt hour that’s not awful I don’t know what that is in dollars though 110 about $130 $135 has has the pound rallied yeah a little bit man when I was studying in St
Andrews for a semester it was terrible the exchange rate was like one one a buck 50 would get you a quid dude the first time I came to the US it was $25 to the you living like a king yeah I like everything is cheap now I come here
And we’re in we’re in New York and we buy three what was it three coffees no two two coffees and three sandwiches it was like 66 bucks I’m like what the New York’s crazy so you were close it’s about 140 bucks so that that would be for like residential prices that’s like
$14 per kilowatt hour yeah which would be considered actually pretty decent in the US I don’t think this is the price that gets passed down to the consumer though right right do do we have the do we have the ciled uh let me find how
Much are they ciling cuz I know it’s a lot that’s a good point with Renewables build out in in Europe that that’s actually would be a good uh use case you know there are companies in the US that are obviously doing that like saluna is one of the public companies they have uh
Mines out in West Texas on solar and wind wind farms and things like that can you find it yeah I’m just the internet struggling yeah because the interesting thing about the UK is you could go to they could be curtailing Millions every day right so it says here Britain was
Enough wind generation to power a million homes I don’t know exactly how much that is I love how they say waste it’s like doesn’t I mean like it is wasted but like there’s nowhere for it to go guys unless we stick Bitcoin miners there yeah what’s this
There 10 GW wind farms in Scotland however the grid can currently only transmit a maximum six GW so that’s four gws there wow how much how contextualize that for us four gws would be so Riot’s biggest facility I think is like 300 megawatts maybe a little bit more so gigawatts is
A lot is a f gigawatts is a lot so a gigawatt is a thousand megawatts okay yeah so you you could have endless build out there yeah yeah so the thing is right you could go to these people and say listen I want to buy that from you for
Whatever three p a megawatt whatever it is so the pulled up Cambridge they estimate the middle Bound for their Bitcoin consumption index says that the current bitcoin Network consumes 17.55 gaw so it’s about a quarter yeah it’s about a quarter yeah okay I guarantee you you could go up to these people say
Look we’ll buy all this from you you’re wasting it they’ll be like yeah cool what are you put in there Bitcoin minus nope yeah why nope yeah what’s your reason nope you know if there was a place where I could see it happening more than other places I I feel like it
Would be the UK because they’re not like the EU they’re not Shackled by the EU anymore right and the EU really has had some very you know borderline or straight up Draconian stances against Bitcoin and crypto in the past we’re only we’re Shackled by stupidity that’s
All it is a lack lack of education and stupidity like we’ve got a huge solar farm in Bedford huge one of the biggest ones in the UK I’m pretty sure why I don’t know but I’m pretty sure but I’m telling you if they’re curtailing there
And I went to Mayor Tom won I said you know what I can buy all this energy he were like cool yeah how much we’d agree price and if he said what do you put in there I’ll say Bitcoin said NOP I just say data centers and see if that’ll so
Get mad at you for lying later well I already know he has zero interest in Bitcoin I’ve been told cuz it’s like like you know he’s been told yeah Pete by the way from Bedford has got the biggest Bitcoin podcast in the world he’s putting on vents he bringing people
There this is a gift to Bedford right smallest one of the small [ __ ] towns in England you have a density of Bitcoin here it’s a total gift of the town he’s like I’ve got no interest in Bitcoin yeah like why I’ve got no interest what do you know about it I’ve got no
Interest see he’s he’s on the on the on that graph we were showing earlier he’s one of the conservatives or the laggards yeah see you later yeah yeah yeah interesting yeah y’all got a lot of wind in the UK though remember when I was in Wales in 2022 we went to
This little farm where my f my wife’s uh fames ancestors were from and they had all these like like say no to the wind turbines right it’s this like tiny little like thousanders Village when you drive across though to like North Wales from where my family live um you kind of
Go along the top of Wales and it’s the Irish Sea and the wind farms out there are huge yeah I remember seeing some of them when I was out there this is like a everywhere you look it’s just like this out it’s crazy to me man this the it’s
Strong winds most of the yeah and you know it it it’s shallow as well it you know it it makes some sense um especially if they’re going to be constantly turning there are a lot of places in the US where there are winter wi like I I did a bunch of cross country
Road trips um when we moved out to Oregon recently and because I had to go there first to move me and my wife and then I had to go out with a U-Haul and you drive through like Kansas and it’s just left and right wind farms and then
Some pump Jacks like some old ass pump jacks it’s kind of cool but half of them aren’t turning and and wind energy is actually like in terms of energy density it’s one of like the least efficient ways but do you think um the Middle East
Are going to be big miners in this next sort of cycle I think probably I think that anywhere where there is I’m of the mindset that on a long enough time Horizon anywhere where there is excess energy and someone who is willing to do it I wouldn’t even say take the risk but
Just willing to like invest the capital and is open-minded we’ll have Bitcoin miners there um it’s hard to say how much is going on right now the first uh Middle Eastern public Miner um just went public Phoenix group they’ve got operations around the US and Canada and
Also the UAE you know Marathon I think is expanding into the UAE with some JVS they only own like 20% of that one in Abu Dhabi and then I think maybe another one in Oman um but we started to see activity pick up last year in that
Sector so um I think that’s going to be a huge Trend over this next having Epoch I think that you know like if the if the having happened tomorrow what are we at we’re at $84 per P has per day we would be at $42 per pah has per day the lowest
It would ever have been yeah but there would be an instant reaction right probably I mean you probably see that’s why I’m wonder about that floor price where exactly so you would see probably about 20 to 30% of the hash rate come offline something like that um when 20 to 30% comes offline
Um what what happen does that mean block production just takes 20 to 30% longer uh I mean theoretically yes uh in the sense that it would just take longer in general do those Epoch line up with the harving or is there like the epoch do you mean the difficulty adjustment
Yeah yeah so um is it like a couple of days after depend yeah no that’s a good point so it depends uh the last time we had a real shock like we would see maybe from actually worse than the 2020 having during the China mining ban like 50% of
The hash rate just went offline like over the course of a week and I think we ended up having a difficulty Epoch that lasted it was like 16 or 17 days which doesn’t sound that bad but it was very slow what was block production average
Time uh I don’t know I think it was something like maybe 12 minutes I mean the grand scheme I it doesn’t matter yeah no it doesn’t matter like when I when I send a transaction you’re waiting six blocks anyway so whether I’m I mean it’s going to it’s going to definitely
Be a pain in the ass but um I think with the having it’ll kind of be a little it’s going to be slower than that right like not everyone’s going to immediately turn off some people are going to immediately turn off if bitcoin’s price doesn’t do what they think they’re going
To do maybe uh they’ll they’ll kind of wait maybe sometimes if they’re like saying oh maybe we get a pop right and you know obviously just a kind of is it a staring contest is it a staring contest yeah in terms of miners who’s going to I think most miners are pretty
Rational like if you know if they’re not making money they’re just going to turn off um some people might uh just kind of YOLO it and just like I said wait and see maybe they’re hopeful that bitcoin’s price will pop and that’s again to caveat if Bitcoin just absolutely goes
On a ripper like let’s say Bitcoin doubles between now on the having then you know you’re going to see much less the network is going to be much less affected in we’re going to H on a double man I hope it does I’d like to stay
Online for a little bit longer can you get the hash price thing back up yeah but to contextualize what a $42 hash price would look like you know oh hash price sorry not hash price there you go the break even power cost for
Like an s19 J Pro which I kind of use as the like industry standard because it’s the most common deployed yeah would be like 63 bucks see it looks like or 63 6.3 cents per kilowatt hour so $63 a megawatt hour so it looks like that
Floor is about $60 has been so far that’s very kind of like yeah that’s exactly has so far but the tradeoff between yeah you know M miners uh switching on and off and and hash price that looks like it could be I I mean it it’s that’s the floor so far since the
Last having so the it got down to 55 to 60 bucks per petahash after the 2020 having and it got down that low last year after the FTX blow up now but what but Hash Hash price trades in back radation which basically means that it’s like over a long enough time frame it’s
Always going to be lower like this [ __ ] is gonna Trend to zero because I mean assuming um I mean here do do the if you really want to see like the Bitcoin doll yeah that’s the all yeah so see look at that’s a shitcoin chart yeah it’s it’s sad yeah but hold
On in 2018 they had a good time to miners that’s when fees were ridiculous was uh fees were pretty were pretty high but also just Bitcoin ripped and there weren’t that many people online so like you know back then the industry was really still concentrated in China but
Dude they’re printing money then oh yeah oh they made out like Bandits I was telling Danny you know you have stories of these guys basically just buying up miners or bit man or have connections to bit M maybe it is bit M and they would just throw this [ __ ] next to the hydrop
Plant on racks no Warehouse nothing get out leave just get it out there and start mining not even like a rain cover appar sometimes just just like Let It Go they expected to get rid of them in a year and deploy new uh new hash rate but
That chart that that kind of looks like the Bitcoin dollar chart in some yeah this is when you were mining Pete so hold on no it wasn’t it wasn’t that’s not and the other thing too if you I started in January if you actually had a petahash back then that would be
Quite a lot because the most efficient rig back in 2017 was the S9 so I started in January and I was you got the dragon miners right I I yeah I got 70 the dragon Miners and 70 s9s right and I was uh uh mining at uh in the January that’s
When I first switched them on and I made money and then I went into February and I lost no about broke even and then I started losing money I was paying 18 cents and I was into a one-year contract I was like yeah I’m that idiot did you
Just like have a warehouse somewhere some other guy no no no it was in the US some guy did it some guy was like um you want to get into mining I met him in La I was like yeah totally it’s like you showed me his facility he said look if
You if you get the equipment I’ll switch it on it makes me more efficient I’m great so I ended up buying these S9 from bit main but it was that it was those days you know when they used to do a release you just had to try and get in
But you had to have bit bcash right so transfer my Bitcoin to bash and then I put and in the end if I if I did just held the Bitcoin I mean what what were we talking that was $140,000 of don’t think about it what was what was what was the Bitcoin price
In a pro probably probably about three-month lead time on the miners would you say yeah I’d say so so October 17 October 17 would have been just over about 5k yeah about that yeah so uh so 140k divided by 5K Peter just don’t think about it
What’s that uh 20 25 live math this is not my strong point 36 sell for my calculator either way either way I kind of wish I had those Bitcoin but it wasn’t one of those ones I actually just had the Bitcoin I had dollars and I
Check I I think it’s it’s like anything it’s bought Bitcoin then B Cas or what it’s kind of just a learning experience right yeah and you know the the every lesson I’ve had in Bitcoin has been just whole Bitcoin yeah just keep buying it and just keep buying it you know one
Thing I will say about mining I bought my first mining rigs at the top of 2021 I paid in Bitcoin though and that actually ended up being even though rigs were super expensive like my first s9s were like $1,000 now they’re trading for like a thousand if you’re lucky you know
I paid 10,000 for five s9s yeah and and you know exactly and so um basically though like I bought with Bitcoin and roing in Bitcoin for that was actually more or less on par because I sold at the top when Bitcoin was at like 56 or
60,000 that’s what I used to pay for the rigs so what’s funny is like you know if you look at like actually BTC denominated at different times sometimes it plays in your favor even when you think it wouldn’t um but generally speaking you know the reason you mine is
So that you can produce Bitcoin under spot yeah and it’s very hard to do I mean even the public miners don’t really do it when you factor in like all of their if you were just factoring in their power price then it’d be fine but these guys have massive overhead right
Yeah I I think I was able to use my losses against profits for the business so I think I worked out but I don’t feel like it was like 36 Bitcoin though at the time or whatever it would have been in bcash how many s did you buy no I
Know is I I know I bought 70 and they were 2,000 each but I can’t remember the actual price I paid by maybe it was in November the price or something okay whatever that would have been that would have been expensive right because not as expensive as buying in like December or
January when Bitcoin was at Peak prices for that cycle but yeah I don’t feel like it came out of my Bitcoin I can’t even remember either way it was a stupid decision I never should have done it I learned a lot from it and therefore and
Then so you decided to do it again 2018 and and or in in 2020 2021 yeah so I I I m I think I’ve min over a Bitcoin now with those yeah so I paid 50,000 for those Miners and I’ve mined a about 1.2 Bitcoin I think in profit and
I still got the machine so I’m I’m close to about break even now yeah but at the time if I spent 50,000 on bitcoin I don’t know what when was that though well the other thing too though about mining though that was in the summer of 22 don’t know because I used
You guys didn’t I yeah I’m trying to remember when that was or that was in the that was in 21 actually I think but anyway all that being said the other the thing I like about mining though if you’re trying to kind of I mean not diversify totally but it’s a
Way to have passive income instead of like you’re just like people always say well you should have just bought Bitcoin depending on the time like I might not have deployed that Capital all at once I might have decided to break it up but like when you buy a mining rig and you
Actually have decent power then you’re just basically dollar cost averaging every day yeah maybe you don’t make out as much as if you time the the bottom perfectly but I’ve I’ve you know I’ve almost never done that well the last set those 10 I bought were at a time where I
That was a dollar purchase that wasn’t a Bitcoin purchase I bought them with dollars like right company well pounds really but company profits uh and that would have just stayed in the bank account so um but my biggest lesson is leave it to the professionals it’s not
For me yeah it’s it’s tough and I think in the future after this one of the long-term trends I anticipate and this is not necessarily super insightful a lot of people have said this but I mean eventually man if you just look at this hash price curve downward right the
Backwardation of how it just keeps getting worse year after year eventually it’s just going to be energy producers and it’s going to be maybe miners that are contracted by energy producers but most people are not just going to be able to set up a hosting business and
You know get power blocks for 70 80 bucks a megawatt hour and expect to turn a profit it’s going to be like giant ass miners like Riot that have power um manag agement strategies it’s going to be you know companies like uh like the TVA here in Tennessee or other power
Authorities that are using Bitcoin as a way to soak up excess energy it’s going to be edge cases like gridless you know you’re going to have to increasingly find an edge to survive so here you go I’ve got a bet with Harry suduk he thinks in the next Haring Epoch that
There’ll be a 50 Bitcoin block mind again I took the under on that oh I want to know your take the next so the next Epoch there will be 50 Bitcoin block mines you’re talking about the foure cycle yeah I don’t know what to do with that I
Kind of want to take the under Harry’s a sharp guy though and he knows a hell of a lot more about the ins and outs of mining than I do but that’s almost more of like a network play right yeah I think it’s possible I mean if you look
At the stuff that’s going so we haven’t even hit a real bull market yet yeah if we hit a real bull market all of the JPEG and inscription degeneracy that we’ve seen so far is going to look like preschool I mean you know like the type
Of [ __ ] that went on last cycle with with nfts in the ethereum and Solano ecosystem like we haven’t even gotten close to that point how much did that oh who’s who’s that guy who was on Twitter I think he actually went on Rogan eventually the um be yeah was that
Didn’t didn’t he sell one for like 80 million yeah something crazy right and so we haven’t even gotten to that yet and we are we have I mean inscriptions have the um mean benefits maybe not the word but all that shit’s on chain you
Know and you know if it’s an if it’s a JPEG it actually ends up taking up it the fee ends up costing less than if it’s like most of the inscription volume this year was from BRC 20s like Json yeah which I I personally like I love
Inscriptions as a minor I don’t [ __ ] understand why anyone would be rushing to myy BR c20s I mean it really doesn’t make much sense to me because it’s it’s literally just text you know and and and it’s almost I was talking about Charlie Spears at luxer you know he’s a big guy
I love Charlie too you know he sent me a passage from when money dies and it’s it’s Eerie do you know what the passage is uh I could find it yeah dig it out um and it’s basically what he’s basically making the argument that you know what
The kind of speculation we’re seeing on inscriptions is okay here it is um what was to be done casting around people found a life ra shares were the they were the only form of investment which kept pace not all the time and not all shares yet on
The whole they managed to keep up so everyone dealt in shares every Min minor official every employee every shift worker became a shareholder day-to-day purchases were paid for by selling shares on wage days they were generally stampedes of the banks and share prices shot up like rockets the banks were
Bloated with wealth obscure new ones sprouted up like mushrooms and did a roaring trade every day the entire population studied the stock market listings Sometimes some shares collapsed and thousands of people hurled towards the abys this and every shop every Factory every school share tips were
Whispered in one’s ear and so you know to me you know people are like well why would anyone pay like million dollars for these for these jpegs or these inscriptions I also love it when people like you see like some hardcore Maxis being like oh you’re just trying to scam
People um like if that’s true the scammers are scamming each other because people aren’t irrational there’s a reason that they’re trying to flip these things because some people have made millions of dollars selling a [ __ ] Peg of a frog you know on Discord or through Twitter or on a telegram chat
And to me that’s it’s kind of insane that we’re at this point but people are looking for returns in any way they can when the money is broken this is the kind of stuff that you get yeah but at least in this scenario when the money’s broken and they’re doing this degeneracy
They have the Bitcoin option in front of them we’re not all doing this right no yeah I agree I think it’s stupid I think it’s stupid too um I’m also just way too conservative for that which some people would laugh in my real life like you’re too conservative for that but you were
Owning Bitcoin I mean financially conservative like I’ve worked hard for the money that I’ve saved I don’t have the balls to throw a Bitcoin into something that could just be worth nothing the next day maybe it’s worth 10 Bitcoin in a year but I just I that’s
But are you the guy to go to Vegas and put $10,000 on black absolutely exactly so that it’s just that and some people AR what I what I can’t find can’t make my mind of mind up on is are ordinals good for Bitcoin that’s but I can’t make
My mind I I don’t cuz I’m a money maximalist but platform maximalists are saying no they are these are the ideologies we talking about before calling yourself a mon monetary maximalist that is your ideology within Bitcoin that’s what my focus is on work definitely that’s what I care about but
It’s not my identity yeah this but but the reason I want to know is cuz like uh if they are good for Bitcoin if it’s good that this is happening well then should I embrace it should I do ra Bedford jpegs and sell them probably but
But if I do that am I really a scammer no I don’t know no here’s the thing you’re not a scammer a scammer I mean yeah but here’s the reason why you’re not a scammer and this is why I think a lot of where the ma where the hardcore
Maximalists get it wrong the people buying those typically know the risk yeah of course you know what I mean and it’s like it’s not like some Grandma who’s like oh my grandson said that this badford J jpeg is going to be a good investment for my retirement no one like
That’s the I think that’s the image they have in their mind but to go back to your original question well it’s a different question then it’s not am I a scammer it’s not am I a scammer am I making Bitcoin worse that’s what I never
Want to do so I I I think probably not and I think in terms of inscriptions and ordinals whether or not they’re good for Bitcoin is kind of what lens you’re looking at it from right because basically miners will say that they’re good for Bitcoin because they’re
Making more money good for the show if he want J pegar will say that they’re good for Bitcoin because they’re bringing in more revenue for the minor I think they’re good in the sense that they’re bringing in like people from the eth ecosystems and other who otherwise
Wouldn’t run Bitcoin code and stuff like that overall though I don’t buy the argument that they’re necessary for like Bitcoin to survive especially the fee with like the block subsidi and budget and stuff so Shinobi’s in the house do you know Shinobi I’ve never met Shinobi
No all right sh’s in the house um I’ve only ever heard him screaming on spaces and calling everyone an idiot on Twitter but we’re about to get that one he’s got this big smile on though in real life I like the Hat it’s the Hat I’m I’m
[ __ ] bullish on that hat um we don’t have to rush to finish um what do you think of the stories of 2024 what is it you and Lux we’re looking at you think for miners yeah do we get a zash that’s the big one under over on zetah
Hash I’m going to take the under I’ll take the over okay 100K sets okay done by the way I’m the generate Gambler if you just heard a dozen different um let me write this down because I’ve got so many bets I forget them uh but the reason I say
Under just because like you know Drew Armstrong has had some points on this we’re kind of getting to the point where a lot of the capacity like okay so people think that you just like throw the as6 and near an energy source and you turn them on to
Actually deploy at that scale you need a lot of things you need Transformers you need power infrastructure you need warehouses and you need the people to put it together we’re getting to a point where it’s like there are a lot of untapped energy sources but to actually
Like develop them to be able to support hundreds 100 megawatts things like that big deployments it’s going to take some time where are we right now about 500 so we’re halfway do we double in a year Well it nearly doubled last year what do you and a bull run there’s more
Incentive to double what do you think uh which bet would you have taken I this isn’t an educated bet but I would have taken the under as well o all right do you want to do it 100K stats yeah done it either 100K stats or a steak dinner
At a nice steakhouse I mean I don’t know that’s probably what 100K that’s probably 100K SES at that point how many bets have we made this year 50 yeah we this is BET on everything all the time and we’re it’s funny we’re at a point there was a point
Where I was nearly a million sets up I think it was like 950 a point in Texas where we that was like one game a PO no because it was one .1 Bitcoin on the um the Liverpool and the menu not getting out their group 01 Bitcoin yeah and then
But I was already down so that put me up and then Danny’s gradually been chpp away so this is a cop out but obviously it really just depends on what bitcoin’s doing as well like I said if Bitcoin rips then hash price could stay above that $50 per petahash threshold and then
You know and almost anything could happen um um 200k sets up on Danny at the moment it also depends on what’s happening with emerging mining markets like I said if the Russ and people in South America continue deploying hash then you know there’s a lot of power assets around the world
That are untapped that just need to be developed so we’ll see a lot of the public mining has got a lot of capacity as well yeah they do I am I am a little bit bearish on a lot of the public miners okay I think a lot of
Them are going to have a hard time keeping up if they don’t have like I said if they don’t have like power strategies like Riot you know Riot made like I think it was like 60 million in power credits huh La uh last quarter and because of that they can drop their
All-in power cost on paper to like under like $20 a megawatt hour which is crazy um the ones that are think forward thinking like bit Farms is moving to Latin America marathon’s finally getting their act together and like so Marathon usually just hosts now they’re actually buying facilities like they bought the
Kerney Nebraska facility and granberry Texas facility which used to be owned by um compute North compute North went bankrupt generate Capital their Finance year took charge of that and now marathon’s buying those so they’re going to actually have their own facilities that they run now um all that being said
Like they’re going to have to start getting really smart because the average industrial power cost in the US is like $70 a megawatt hour in Texas it’s like 60 something and so you know if hash price goes below $40 per pet of hash you know over this next having Epoch a lot
Of those guys are going to be treading water do do you see a merger between an energy company and a public M I think what probably makes most sense maybe a merger but I think it would just be like a straight out like acquisition so I
Guess it’s the same thing who who’s the buyer Which Way um definitely the Energy company I mean we’re already starting to see this in some senses with like it’s not a merger but like joint ventures are very popular so Tera wolf operates with and and uh Pennsylvania with um Talon
Energy at the Susana nuclear plant and so Talon has like I think a 75% ownership in that and then and don’t quot people check that because I don’t know if that’s true but it’s something like that like Talon owns the majority of the JV and then ter wolf owns like 25
30% and you know ter wolf gets like $25 a megawatt hour for their power and tusah gets to sell nuclear energy that they otherwise wouldn’t be able to to monetize isn’t isn’t there an Australian Energy company that started mining I’m I’m pretty sure there was Oh I thought
You I thought you Jing about Iris me no no an actual like a power supply oh I don’t know I didn’t see that I thought I throw that okay so that’s another I think prediction for the next Epoch like I said you’re going to see I I think
You’re probably going to see more um deployment of hash rate on or near um you know actual power sites some of that’s already happening they just don’t talk about it because there’s still a lot of political risk and social risk right like a lot of these power
Companies don’t really want to be like oh yeah we’re mining Bitcoin because it’s like so politically charged in the US what if blackw owns them the majority of the chairs I don’t like that man what it is bitcoin price at the Haring I’m not saying that that’s well
We’ve we’ve got a bet that we haven’t declared yet have we you said we’ve got to have a bet on the price of the harving I don’t know what to pick though do you want me to pick and you want to go under over yeah right where are we now how long to
Go three months so I want to say alltime high I want to say 69 but then you would definitely go under so what I’m going to be a bear I’m going to say it’s going to be like 30 or something you the 30,000 I don’t know why everyone’s like
Super bullish right now like there’s not really anything okay like just to play out the scenario um like yeah we just got the ETF um we just got all the like all these other things but there’s not really anything to suggest that we’re going to absolutely rip over the next
Year unless like If the Fed starts cutting rates which they will which they will then it might but I also think that like people are underestimating just what a recession would mean for Bitcoin like that would be kind of brutal people which is why they’re going to cut the
Rates well but still like that doesn’t matter if you know Joe Blow has to liquidate his ENT entire stack because now he can’t afford his mortgage do you know what I mean like if someone if a guy loses his job and he’s looking for six months of Runway to pay his bills
He’s going to sell the most liquid assets first that’s why you know in the March shock in March 13th 2020 Bitcoin absolutely got [ __ ] it went from like 10K to 5K within a few M like within an hour and so like the most liquid assets are always the ones that are sold first
And they’re sold the hardest now we could recover very steeply very swiftly after that but I just think like I see a lot of irrational exuberance right now and I just I’m trying to like temper my expectations I would love for Bitcoin to be at 60k or above but I just don’t know
If that’s going to happen yeah I don’t know if I’ve got irrational exuberance uh I’m very bullish just because of signals I’m not saying that to you I’m looking how much these ETFs are taken off the table so but I want to get a price that challenges Danny because if I
Go 69 you’ll definitely going under I’m going to go oh where will challenge you I go 50 you’re going over I’m going to go 55k yeah I’ll take under you’re taking under and 55k woo another 100K is that price this moment of the har block the
Block it’s not like if it hits 55k before and then is no it’s the price when the block when it yeah uh right and just to be a total rube and talk about you know like prices like like looking at historical precedent I mean if you looked at Bitcoin before the 2020 having
It didn’t exactly I mean we recovered from the bar Market but we didn’t exactly like rip right before it I think it was somewhere in the ballpark of like seven or eight K and like we’ve already doubled from last Cycle’s low all right which is like
16k what about one year from today we can’t do too many price bets on the show should you should do five years from today just do one do next having just do this one one one year from today you got to pick the number I’ll go under over
Come on just for the fun I don’t know I need to think about that we’ll do it but I need to think about it it’s a fo’s erand trying to project price I I don’t care I just like bet I’m it’s like this or buy [ __ ]
Jpegs these are my jpegs oh we we should inscribe our bets you should dude where do people find this uh report uh you can go to hashr index.com uh back blog we’ve got a free version up there we also sell a premium version as part of our uh
Premium product to subscribers um you can find me at Twitter at As I Lay hodling it’s not a reference to the band it’s reference to the novel by fauler As I Lay Dying yeah um I I really like the band I know every literally every
Bitcoin is just like oh I love that band I was like I don’t listen to that band but I’m glad you like them really they’re a good band yeah but find the find the report on hash index.com give me a shout um happy to give demos to
People if they want to see what the premium versions like love it man well listen let’s uh let’s do this again soon this is great love pet I enjoyed it man thank you Danny appreciate you setting everything up thank you that was great and a big up to Luxor and thank you to
Them for supporting our football club it’s two years now so thank you Nick Nick loves it man he’s a hero man I love that guy all right bro listen yeah do this again soon all right Deuces cheers
40 Comments
First🎉
Bitcoiner's unite, buy the bloody ground, give them an offer they can't refuse 🤣
WOKING represent!
XD
Comment about deployment of capital because of “idiots” insinuates you’re smarter because you got in earlier. There are still many that haven’t had the time or taken the time to understand Bitcoin. Everyone is on a different timeline in life. When my daughters are able to buy Bitcoin in 5 years or so because they’ll have extra income to save by then, they won’t be idiots. Price is going up right now which gives you a sense of pride. I get it. Good for being true to this, but you’re no better or smarter for learning it before someone younger or less able. I’d recommend clarifying this comment or making an apology on a future vid. Appreciate your work product and this show 👊
What Bedford did jk
Bitcoin is a Power Law 😉
I thought El Salvador had more of an impact on Global Mining Decentralization, or is there information unavailable?
Danny I also grew up next to rolling hills that were covered in windmills called the Buffalo Ridge along the South Dakota and Minnesota border. Over half of them never turn… its sad how unprofitable they are.
Bro's a gambling addict 😂
Thanks for the podcast! I think I prefer the zoomed out camera view. It's a bit too intense like this lol
*Bitcoin (BTC) for decentralised money. Filecoin (FIL) for decentralised data. Both vital for humanity.
You’re our bootlicker, Pete. 1000% better than Pete from 2020 😂
Thanks for sharing
Harper reminds me of a young, thin David Crosby.
Radio is relevant in the red wilderness. As Peter observed.
Classic UK local councils. Watch clarksons Farm and they have to deal with the same shit constantly. The councils in this country are definitely not impartial and extremely biased
Another great show. Thanks men!
Pete mining story is hilarious. legend
Old interview?
Another great show, guys, appreciated! Just one thing I have to correct, Peter: It's not the biggest Bitcoin podcast in the world. @Blocktrainer is a German Bitcoin-only channel with 154k subscribers.
3 wizzkids who can't divide 140 by 5, that's where the world is now
Just HODL 😅
Peter: we need regulations because some (in his opinion) are good.
Then goes on to describe why Bitcoin is good because it can't be regulated. For example, sanctions can be avoided by mining in Russia.
Bitcoin is good because it cannot be regulated. Someone else might think the regulations you think are good are actually bad. Bitcoin is a method by which other people don't need to suffer the regulations you think are good.
I view NFT’s as digital collectibles, like trading cards or like a signed EPL jersey from a big game, people like the bragging rights of having something rare but I think they know that it may or may not be worth much in the future, but maybe it will. It depends on whether it was Messi’s jersey at 17 or some lesser known player at 17. With traditional collectibles there isn’t this expectation on the seller that its value will go up. The risk is completely on the collectible owner. But with NFT’s there’s this additional pressure building, like you guys discussed in the show, from the money being broken where people are desperate to make back what has been stolen from them thru inflation.
Time stamp 22:56 yo Statist bootlicker. You can have laws and regulations without a State. There is no need for a State that viaolates Property Rights and the non-aggression principle.
Colin mentioned writing an 80 page article. Any links to it?
Luxor = Scumbags
forget bitcoin i want that flannel
Hi Peter, been listening to your podcasts for a few months now and I have to say hands down this is the best crypto podcast. Informative, amazing guests and free-flowing quality conversations. Love your work in education people about the bitcoin world, but also the amazing work you are doing for your home town. Kudos to you my friend.
Research Kaspa and Tao and you will realize bitcoin was only the beginning of the revolution
Slight disappointing that after talking with Dave Smith Peter still doesn't understand Libertarianism, it's not that there aren't regulations or rules but it's that these rules are created and enforced by the market rather than through the violence of state.
Also the left started identity politics not Trump, Trump was the much needed push back to it
We like the Colin
Insightful guest, it would be interesting to get Colin back in a year or so to discuss how things unfold.
7:27 as someone who used to commute to San Francisco, closing public toilets is a REALLY BAD IDEA. Elevators and the ends of train platforms become urinals and those who really have to poop drop it somewhere.
1:00:07 "$14/KWh" er, no. 14c is high on a nationwide view.
this is one of the reasons why the bitcoin mining mechanism isnt as great as you guys seem to think it is. Mining is just trading money for hardware + electricity and than trading that electricity for bitcoin. In 99% of all cases it is just more efficient to directly trade money for bitcoin. just like you peter most people in mining would have made much more profit if they'd just bought the bitcoin instead of mining them. this ofc lead directly to the second thought: If the only reason people buy bitcoin is number go up, its just a glorified pyramid scheme.
Treading on thin ice there mentioning Trump in what looked very much a favorable light. Good way to lose subscribers.
Miners are the accountants. Simple as that. The technicalities of how it works isnt important to most non techy people.
I live in Woking – they’re in debt because they borrowed a substantial amount of money to invest in the town centre and it’s massively back fired. Costs for the development have spiralled and were massively underestimated which has left them with a mountain of debt and having to declare bankruptcy. Those debts were taken out when the interest rates were low so god only knows what they’ll do when they come to refinance!
Terry Hall lookalike…has anyone else said this to you Peter?!