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Concerned about the world’s major events There is talent split Hello, everyone. I am a hundred years. If you use a word to describe The just-concluded 2023 Central Economic Work Conference One hundred years will use the word change. Because in the past year About China’s Economic Development
Whether it is the top level of the country or our common people Can feel There are many contradictions and structural problems in China’s economy. According to the statement of the official meeting That is, there is a blockage in the domestic cycle. This is since the double-cycle strategy was proposed.
The State used this expression for the first time Since there is a blockage in the economy That requires unblocking and change. For this reason, in the coming 2024 The country has planned reforms in four major directions. How it will affect every ordinary person
Today, ah, a hundred years ago, we will lead everyone through this official conference announcement. After The Future of China’s Economy in 2024 Time goes back 1 year ago Standing at the end of 22 years At the beginning of the 23rd year At that time
Many institutions at home and abroad for China’s economy in 2023 is very optimistic For example, CICC predicted at the beginning of the year. After the end of the epidemic Resident consumption recovery china’s gdp growth rate reaches 5.5 percent for the whole year Morgan Stanley’s forecast is 5.4 percent. But a year has passed
According to the latest calculations of the Academy of Social Sciences China’s GDP growth this year is likely to be 5.2 percent Lower than forecast at the beginning of the year And in order to achieve the established growth target. The central bank has cut interest rates twice this year. Two downgrades What about October?
The Treasury also issued a rare additional 1 trillion of special treasury bonds. to support the economy The macro sector. It can be said that a very great effort has been made. We can’t help but ask Why the economy’s momentum will be lower than expected this year According to the official meeting.
That’s because social expectations are weak. There are still more risks There are blocking points in the domestic large cycle. People also have a steelyard in their hearts According to our ordinary people’s body feeling One hundred years can divide the so-called reading points into three levels. respectively is the first problem of growth
Second distribution problem Third, the issue of security The problem of first-tier growth People’s expectations for the future economy have weakened again. This year, the macro economy has encountered two major obstacles. One is affected by the international environment The export situation is deteriorating According to customs statistics January to October this year
China’s exports fall 5.6 percent year-on-year Although the decline in exports is not only our family Japan’s exports fell 5.2 percent over the same period. South Korea is down 10%. But exports fell Related to the manufacturing sector with 105 million employment The impact is huge According to the calculation of 100 years
Imports and exports drag down china’s gdp by 0.7 percent this year And every 0.1 percentage points of decline in GDP It will affect the employment of 150000 people. The second problem is the real estate problem. According to statistics from the Bureau of Statistics one to November Investment in real estate development in China
Cumulative year-on-year decline of 9.4 per cent Real estate investment drags down China’s gdp by about one percentage point. Affect the employment of 1.5 million people Because of the drag on the two major sectors of export real estate. People’s expectations of the future economic situation have weakened. Not willing to consume
The second layer is the problem of distribution. Macroeconomics may be growing But specific to the individual income has not increased I just talked about in order to achieve the established gdp growth target The macro management department has made great efforts. But the benefits of macro policy More is enjoyed by the affluent.
Or from the data point of view the first three quarters of this year Average disposable income of urban residents Cumulative year-on-year growth of 5.2 percent higher than GDP growth. While the median disposable income It only grew by 4.3 percent. lower than gdp growth The scissors gap between the two tends to widen
It shows that the distribution of wealth is skewed towards the wealthy. We all know The marginal willingness of the poor to consume is higher The rich are lower. If the money goes to the rich used to consume less The pulling effect on the economy is naturally lower.
Instead, the high savings rate this year. November The balance of bank savings deposits increased by 15% year-on-year. well above gdp and income growth The third level is the issue of security. Pay in hand. But dare not consume 2023 Another main thread of China’s economy is local finance.
As land transfer revenue fell and debt pressure increased. Some public benefits provided by local governments Signs of marginal decline According to media statistics This year, ah There is already Hengshan in Hunan Bus outages or concentrated incidents occurred in Nanchong, Sichuan and other places In addition, Lanzhou Shenyang
Guangzhou and other big cities are also planning to raise the price of public transportation by one yuan in the near future. This could be history. In addition According to a department final account of Weinan City Transportation Bureau in Shaanxi Province 2016 to 2021 Local subsidies for the bus system
From 2.48 million to 90000 The public transport system is still a marginal welfare In the context of an ageing population The most critical social security pressure is also gradually apparent Data Display 2023 The national basic pension base for retirees increased year-on-year. Only 3.8 percent. lower than gdp growth
Also below the growth rate of disposable income The lowest increase in recent years. At the same time? The average social wage base for social security reference in many places across the country. But still maintained High growth of around 6% to 7% higher than GDP growth.
On the one hand, the social security contribution base is growing at a high rate. On the other hand, the growth rate of the expenditure base is low. It reflects the difficulty of managing the social security pool by the financial department today. In the face of this situation The response of the common people
It’s natural to save more. less consumption For the current economic pull will naturally decline So to sum up, there is a blockage in what the official domestic cycle is saying. For a hundred years, it is these three factors. First, growth expectations decline. The second income distribution imbalance Third, social security is not perfect.
There are these three blocking points Even with strong economic stimulus measures at the top next year Implemented in the hands of the grassroots people The sense of gain may still be weakened. So, ah, for economic work in 2024 Compared to how to stimulate economic growth
How to carry out economic reforms is even more important. From the announcement of this central economic work conference A hundred years to sort out the direction of the four major economic reforms respectively, is expected to reverse optimize industry Improved distribution and sound safeguards
The first point is to reverse the downward expectations of exports and real estate. On the export side, government departments have stepped up their actions in the last two months. On October 17. The Belt and Road International Cooperation Summit Forum The country announced that it will completely abolish restrictions on foreign investment in manufacturing.
24 November. Our country unilaterally visa-free France Germany Italy and five other European countries Both policies made history. So as not to sign an example For a long time China stresses the principle of reciprocity for foreign visas You don’t give me a free visa I won’t give you a visa waiver either.
Under this principle Even though the American passport that claims to travel around the world You also have to apply for a visa to China. Before this visa-free European five countries We only in the name of promoting foreign trade in 2003 To Japan Singapore Three countries in Brunei have given unilateral visa-free special care.
But this time the expansion of visa-free countries means we ‘ve crossed the threshold of reciprocity In the future, China’s visa-free list may expand significantly. Take the United States for example As the most powerful country in the world The US visa-free threshold is very strict. But it still granted visa-free access to 40 countries.
Mostly rich countries in Europe and East Asia as a comparison China in the past. Only a dozen countries have granted visa-free access to ordinary passports. And it’s all similar to Armenia. A small, non-rich country like Albania In the future, China may also refer to the United States. Visa-free treatment for most rich countries
The economic effect of visa-free is very obvious. What about the data display? After this visa-free European five countries Search volume of inbound air tickets to China from related countries Up 100 percent month-on-month We hope that it will become more and more convenient for foreigners to come to China.
China’s foreign trade and tourism industry can get a boost As I said in this meeting. Effectively break through the blocking points for foreigners to come to China to do business, study and travel. in another plate In terms of real estate 2024. The state will focus on the layout of three major projects
Respectively, the construction of affordable housing Rating Dual Use Public infrastructure construction and urban village reconstruction Some organizations expect it. The three major projects can bring more than 1 trillion investment per year on average. It can effectively support the local property market. However, it should be noted that
At present, the three major projects are only in super-large cities. That is, cities with a population of more than 5 million Now ah Only 21 cities in the country meet the definition of oversize. So in the next stage, the pattern of property market differentiation may continue
In addition, in the area of Baojiao buildings, which the people are more concerned about. This meeting calls for equal treatment To meet the reasonable financing requirements of real estate enterprises with different ownership. Under such guidance? The relevant regulatory authorities are drafting a white list of Chinese housing enterprises. 50 companies were included.
It is rumored that Wanke Longhu Country Garden and other large private enterprises and housing enterprises are included. Financial institutions ah To give white list housing enterprises adequate financing support Effectively prevent the risk of uncompleted residential buildings from spreading The second point is to optimize the industrial structure.
Every year, the Central Economic Work Conference updates the industrial policy guidelines. Next year’s focus Related industries usually perform better in year 2. For example, the 2020 conference proposed carbon peaking. Carbon Neutral 2021 Power equipment has a bright performance in the stock market. The State Emphasizes Industrial Security in 2022
In 2023, the information security industry will lead the way. This year’s Central Economic Work Conference In terms of industrial policy, there are two major points. The first is to put scientific and technological innovation For the first time, it has been promoted to the first item of economic work.
Among them, the manufacturing industry is highlighted. supply chain security Generally points to the semiconductor industry and highlighted the artificial intelligence industry Semiconductor and artificial intelligence, the two major industries It is expected to be the focus of investment in the real economy and capital markets next year.
The second is to raise the problem of overcapacity in some industries. 15 years in 2014 We have experienced the problem of overcapacity It was steel. Coal, these traditional industries After years of supply-side reform The problem of overcapacity in traditional industries has been curbed. But, ah, some low-end so-called emerging industries
The problem of overcapacity has re-emerged. For example, the photovoltaic industry new energy automobile industry October this year. Once the new power of car building, Weimar declared bankruptcy. Opened the new energy automobile industry out of Beijing December The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology warned at the information disclosure meeting.
The risk of overcapacity in the low-end of the photovoltaic industry needs to be highly concerned. These so-called emerging companies used to survive on government subsidies Technical Development but did not keep up Waste of valuable financial resources Now, as the country begins to deal with low-end industries. The problem of excess capacity
These companies will face a real test. The third point is to improve distribution. Any policy introduced by the State to promote economic growth Whether it’s lowering interest rates or issuing government bonds. Implementation to the grassroots It’s all going to work through the financial system.
And financial enterprises are naturally too poor to love the rich. In the past, the political position was not high. and accompanied by invisible corruption weakened the landing effect of national policy Therefore, this autumn, ah Starting from the Central Financial Work Conference An unprecedented round of financial system overhaul
Anti-corruption and profit-making is about to begin. Start with the financial system The state will refocus The way to slice the whole Chinese economic cake This part of the content of a lot of very important Hundreds of years have been introduced in detail in previous videos. Strongly recommend everyone to pay attention
And looking back here, I will not introduce too much. The last point is sound protection. This time, the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized Strict supervision of transfer payment funds serious economic discipline Enhancing fiscal sustainability All solid grass-roots three guarantees bottom line Strict control of general expenditure
Party and government organs should get used to living a tight life. There are at least three main points involved. The first is that the central government will increase next year. For local transfer payments. The current market is generally expected The central fiscal deficit rate will rise in 2024.
The national debt continues to increase by nearly a trillion yuan. To supplement the funding gap of local governments in welfare expenditure Relieve The people for the current society.Concerns about inadequate protection The second is strict fiscal discipline. The state’s money goes straight to the grassroots. straight into the pockets of the common people 2023
Number of anti-corruption investigations in the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection In the context of a record-setting history Next year, the country is bound to continue to maintain a high-pressure anti-corruption situation. Improving the efficiency of the use of financial funds Third, government agencies further tighten their belts.
Party and government organs should get used to living a tight life. 2021 The Central Economic Work Conference made a similar statement. In the past four years, news of civil servants’ pay cuts has been reported in many parts of the country. This year, uh, the Central Economic Work Conference continues to make similar demands.
A belt-tightening move. Upgrade again. And a keen sense of political smell As a demonstration area of common prosperity Zhejiang has taken the lead. For example, to avoid the problem of eating and drinking with public funds. This year, uh, the reform of official meals will begin.
Canteens of large and small organs around the country can be directly used by business travelers. Sweep Code Dining No further public assistance What about the bus? This will launch the bus carpooling software What about meetings? This will completely cancel the conference room Use of green plants and flowers to save money
Similar initiatives are expected next year. It will be implemented nationwide. The savings in government money. will be invested in education Social welfare fields such as medical care and pension Enhance the people’s sense of security Finally, let’s take a look at this central economic work conference. About China’s economic development in 2024
Reverse expectations through reform optimize industry to improve distribution Sound protection is the key to solving the blocking point in the internal cycle. The deep-seated problems in the current economic development The state has noticed. This meeting shows that the country has the determination and ability. to solve related problems
So what we need to do is give the country some time. And, uh, as citizens to actively monitor and promote the country’s reform initiatives. Believe in 2024. We can do better This is the end of the program.
Don’t forget to pay attention to 100 years of serious attention to the follow-up more exciting content I am a hundred years. Our next period
1 Comment
请问柏年预测2024年的经济增长是多少？