You’re being told house prices are going up. But 1.8 million mortgages are about to reset, landlords are flooding the market with stock, affordability is at twice the historical norm, and the government’s own forecaster is predicting growth of just 0.2%.
I looked at the data behind the UK housing market and found four converging forces that nobody selling you property has any incentive to discuss.
1.8 million fixed-rate mortgages are expiring in 2025-2026. Homeowners who locked in at 2.6% are remortgaging at 4.9%. Nearly one million face payment increases of £6,000+ per year. Section 24 tax changes are driving a landlord exodus, with 2.9 million rental properties facing mandatory EPC upgrades costing up to £10,000 each. The average house now costs 8.3 times the median salary — more than double the historical norm. And the RICS house price balance has gone negative.
This video uses data from the Bank of England, RICS, Halifax, Nationwide, the Office for Budget Responsibility, the CDC, Mortgage Finance Gazette, Barclays, and Savills to show you what’s actually happening underneath the headlines.
Halifax is a mortgage lender. Rightmove charges estate agents to list. Savills earns fees on transactions. None of them profit from telling you to wait. This video does.
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