It is that time of year again. The pen works, the charts are out, and the five year old is back with his predictions for where cycling is actually heading in 2026.
In this video I look at what has changed, what has died, and what is quietly being swept under the carpet. Press fit bottom brackets continue their slow and well deserved decline while threaded standards take over. Chinese frame and component brands are no longer fringe players and in many cases now outnumber western brands in the wild. Tubeless starts to look like a lifestyle choice rather than a performance one as TPU tubes quietly eat its lunch.
We also look at where components are going. One kilo wheelsets becoming the benchmark, spoke counts dropping even further, and ratchet based hubs replacing pawls because they are cheaper and easier to make, not because of marketing nonsense. On the drivetrain side Shimano and SRAM remain safe for now while Campagnolo looks increasingly vulnerable.
There is also the usual rubbish. Dubious performance claims, influencer engineering, 3D printed parts that fail because they were shaped not designed, and surface finishes that would embarrass a first year machinist. Cycling media continues its downturn as AI aggregation and sponsor driven narratives hollow it out.
None of this is speculation pulled from thin air. It is based on data, observations from the real world, and watching the industry repeatedly trip over the same basic engineering principles.
Watch it, disagree with it, or tell me the five year old has finally lost it. Comments are open.
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23 Comments
Tubeless on Gravel and MTB is a no brainer and if you ride wide 32mm+ road Tubeless can also work very well.
Running tubeless (on all bikes) i have not had a roadside issue in 2 years( 18k km), but i still carry a spare tpu tube with me, just in case.
I ride bianchi mega pro l with veloce 9speed and colnago chick plus with mirage 9speed both ride great: rim brakes and all:no plans to change.
Butyl tubes for the win now and always ❤❤❤❤
Keep up the information streams- thanks & happy new year
stopped using tubeless a while ago on road bikes. pressure too high for it.
Lots of great insight but you lost me at tubeless. Your comments are all accurate, but the plusses vastly outweigh the negatives.
I feel its settled rather clearly, tubes for road, and some allroad, and 2Bliss for Allroad, Gravel and definitely all MTB. I’m a wheel builder so I suppose I’m a bit biased 🍕
the pen is will get bigger
Just found your site, loved your sign off, what a cack made my day. Electric bikes are going to take over as the tech get smaller and cheaper, we humans are lazy buggers.
I've used butyl, latex, TPU and now tubeless. Tubeless on tubeless ready wheels, not hookless rims. TPU is the lightest but I got many more punctures, used them for 2 years. If you buy Chinese TPUs they're cheaper but 4 out of 10 will fail. If you buy premium TPUs prices are all over the place and they're as easy to puncture. With tubeless, yes I've had messy punctures, but I've literally had like 3 punctures in 1.5 years from riding over debris. It's definitely more comfortable, less punctures and you can always use a spare TPU if the puncture does not seal. Also if you make sure you're using road sealant (much more dense) chances are generally punctures will seal quickly.
TPU tubes + decent tire liners and I haven't had a puncture in ages. Used tubeless for a while, not worth the hassle, even on my gravel bikes I just do TPU now.
whats the story with 101 vids about "end of tubless" in recent weeks?
I open youtube and almost every day i see some new vid with title claiming "tubeless is bad 4 you" bla bla almost same like before "tubeless is great".
i consider tubeless as a performance upgrade. You gain performance at cost of problem free usage.
Tubeless is SOO stupid, just fill the tyre with liquid and hope it doesn't explode :), ohh and it makes a huuuge mess :)))))….ohh and you can't really fix in on the road…. who came up with this crap… replaced all my "tubeless" with tubes and ride with patch kit and a small mtb hand pump
Campy as a brand is only valuable as a "Made In Italy" product. And even that has been meaningless for 2 decades now. The only thing under the flagship brand that still has world class leadership are the track disks for sprinters.
As a component brand, what made Campy great was the European steel and engineering. Japan beat them with Suntour and Shimano, and now China is close enough that nobody cares to invest in modern Campy parts anymore. Thing of this and you'd see my point: Delta brakes on retro bikes command more than brand new brakes for new bike builds.
Can an asian backer buy it? No. But, like Ferrari and Fiat, you will see American capital [does such a thing still even exist in the wild?] and Gulf state money will chase that instant credibility and nostalgia appeal and might do enough to save it.
For me…I would love to see a resurgence of the brand, if only to challenge SRAM and Shimano to keep innovating, but maybe the chinese are already doing enough of that….
I predict the industry is gonna bring back an old standard, they claimed to be obsolet a few years ago and charge crazy money for their revolutionizing new idea.
Ah, that's what they've been doing all the last years? Nevermind…
Hoffentlich wird dich die KI niemals fälschen, mein Guter!
Es kann nur einen geben – HAHAHAH!
The tubeless comment is pretty clueless. The MTB community lives buy the stuff, and it’s pretty widespread in gravel. It’s not messy with a syringe if you remove the valve core.
market share of tpu wont grow exponentially but logistically!
Love you bro
Después de rodar durante años con Campagnolo y los últimos cinco años con Shimano, tengo clarísimo que prefiero Campagnolo absolutamente. En todo. Empezando por sus ruedas y todo lo demás después.
Tuve un chorus de 10s. Que pasó de una Look a una Scott y en diez años no tuvo que tocar nada en el cambio. Eso es Campagnolo. Cambié a un ultegra 11s por curiosidad en una trek y cada vez que cojo la scott con el campagnolo de 11s… Para mí es una evidencia. El italiano es mejor en todo.
Tubeless is great for my area with lots of goat head thorns. It was the main reason for switching from tubes and don’t see myself going back anytime soon.
GCN and Dave (in my opinion,) lost all credibility and became sponsored- adverts years ago. As usual, too much money involved. .
I alway see tubeless in the low pressure MTB Tires with higher pressure the sealant don`t work so well. The needed gear air compressor and labour to clean a used tire/wheel is to much too handle for the standard user. For racing and MTB its best I know. But not for me. I`m through with tubeless. TPU works for me very well.