Tour de France 2026 Route Reaction | Lanterne Rouge x JOIN Cycling

In this episode Patrick Broe and Benji Naesen analyse the 2026 Tour de France route.

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*Meet the team* 👇

🇦🇺 Patrick Broe – Host: https://www.youtube.com/@LanterneRougeCycling & https://www.instagram.com/the_lanterne_rouge_/ & https://www.twitter.com/lanternerougeyt
🇧🇪 Benji Naesen – Host: https://www.youtube.com/@BenjiNaesenTV & https://www.instagram.com/benjinaesen/ & https://www.twitter.com/benjinaesen
🇳🇱 Luc Grefte – Producer: https://www.twitter.com/lucgrefte

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Timestamps:
00:00:00 Intro
00:08:28 Route overview
00:15:48 Stage-by-stage analyses
01:17:04 Predictions and rating the route

Welcome back to Lantern Rouge Cycling Podcast. The recap of the tour to France 2026 route presentation. It was revealed in Paris in cyclonic conditions yesterday. If you were at the uh the porto, porno, whatever it’s called, uh to get to the pale deongre, there was like 100 km an hour winds, which was I was thinking maybe it would be good to have a classics race on these cobble streets right now. That didn’t happen. There were a few riders there, not enough riders to actually form some sort of race. Uh, but as always, we’re going to go over the route, compare it to this year’s route or a, you know, a normal tour to France route that we’ve all watched the last few years and discuss the wild cards a little bit because there was a maybe a maybe it’s a red herring, maybe it’s a sign about which team is going to get the discretionary invite next year. And then we’re going to go through the stage by stage. And yeah, I’m going to pick I’m going to pick winners. I’m going to pick winners for every stage eight months in advance. And if I get some right, yeah, actually getting a Pog one is not that hard. It’s always terrifying because on one end, we know that Pogacho is very likely going to show up for this tour to France 2026. So unless something happens in the run-up to the to France, but we don’t want that to happen, of course. On the other hand, you’ve got Yonas Vine Lipovitz Hansro situation. We we don’t know the exact intricacies of which riders are going to show up, but we’ll try our best to do so. But if we had to guess Patrick, then I would say that Yonas is expected to ride Jirro Tour. In my head, I don’t know how that’s going to affect his story to France, etc. On the other hand, when it comes to Bora, I don’t want to spoil the parkour presentation here too much, but I see a parkour that actually fits Lipovitz. I actually don’t really know who this parkour suits. I would say almost Raglitch because nothing happens most of the time. Um, and there’s some sprints and a TT that he he’d be good at. You think 2025 Rugglitch or peak Rugglitch? Peak Rugglitch. Yeah. If Roglish got this route in 2020. He’d be laugh. It’d be great. Big Rogage isn’t here anymore, I think. Fair enough. Yeah, I guess it suits. We don’t have many multi-alpine like multi HC climb stages. I think just one of them. That’s a difference to this year. So, it’s a very very very different route to this year except for uh TT Kilm keep getting banned, keep getting nerfed. I don’t understand it. We’ll discuss it more, but it it makes no sense to me. This episode brought to you by Morton. A word on them in a second, but winter is when the the real work gets done and winter is indeed coming. And Gav Morton uh to hand for your winter workouts. Uh at the root presentation we had so they changed the format a bit. Normally they they would bring the riders one by one onto the stage. They just brought the men and women out as a group this time. And we had Dylan Chronovic in there who’s on the Unibet Rockets. They took Titr out of the name Unibet Rose Rockets. Uh the new guy got a new bike sponsor and it’d be a bit strange to invite him or maybe he was just there. Well, do you think he was invited or they made him available? I’m not sure. I can read too much into it because at first glance, no offense to the riders that were there, but I feel like the roster of riders at the tour France’s root presentation has gradually downgraded over the years. I’m sorry, but I don’t I get excited if, for example, I see Tagachi going on that stage or Kuvanipool or Yonas Vingo, the big stars in in men’s cycling there, for example, when they’re presenting the men’s race. That’s not what’s happening here. You get, no offense, volunteer for French people, that’s probably an enjoyable guest to be there. Dunuan is also not a peak writer that everybody gets excited about in 2025. Like, sure, he’s got a very important role at Uni Rolls the Rockets now. And I think the the reason you’re pointing it out is because there’s a potential wild card on the table because we spoken about this on the last weekly show we had. There’s three teams that get automatic wild cards towards the tour of France. That is Tudtor Pro cycling, Q46.5 and Puffus. But next to that, the race can also give out two wild cards by themselves. Whether it’s personal preference, politically, whether they want to do it sportively, doesn’t matter. They can choose how to do that. And if I look at the rest of the pro team division, then I see Total Energy as a French team in that pro team ranks. But the other French team is Uni Rosa Rockets because they changed their license to a French license. And outside of that, Kaharal, Burgos, Ken Fararma, I’m sorry, but these teams don’t shout at me, oh, they’re going to be at the to France. So, I think that the optional wild cards will go to total and uni rockets. So I am I am shocked that I went from in a single year the stance of I don’t see in any way how uni TJ Maroets could be at the to France to I’m certain they will be at the to France in the span of a year due to the fact that RKL disappeared. Yeah, that confidence is getting automatic wild card that total and they they still exist but that that IP and lotto are going to world tour that lot and enter are merging together. Everything is aligning the stars are aligning for unimea rockets to do that. The question did they need the now wildpool’s transfer for this to happen? I mean, well, no one cares that they have W pools like from a you’re not you’re not getting a tour to France invite because you have W pools. With all due respect, it’s not not Tom Pigg. It’s not Julian Alfip on TUDA, is it? Um, but no, I mean Grunovan I think they signed because he is their most realistic chance to get a top five in a tour or a top 10 in a tour of France stage. They’re not going to do it in an uphill finish. They’re not going to do it in a TT. They’re not going to do it in a puncher stage. The only way is to build a sprint train and get Gronovan in a pancake flat sprint. Well, there’s no other way. I think that changed with Wild Pools. I think Wild Pools is a guy that can still win a grand tour stage, but at the tour to France, it’s difficult. Or Tour to France. Yeah, I mean, maybe. Yeah, Wild Pools, maybe that changes that. So, he’s also Dutch. I think Keon would have been a good now looking at it would have been a good fit. Um but does that work financially because hypothetically what pools I’m assuming that is that his cost is somewhere between 450 and 700 800k I don’t know whether he downgraded in salary whether he wanted to make himself available for a team like this because it’s a good story etc. I don’t know the behind the scenes here, but the way they were talking about it in the video that they made, really well produced video, it sounded like it was seven figures plus. Yeah, then you can afford Keon. But did they know Keon was available? That is the question. When they sound, they showed us through this from ages ago. And uh Exactly. Anyway, the ASO has no choice. Well, they’re not going to invite Kah Rural to the tour to France. I mean, especially after what happened a few years ago with the Welter. So, um, that’s just no option. And so, yeah, Uno X getting promoted, the extra compulsory wild cards are carefolding. I mean, UNOX didn’t even think they were going to make world tour at the start of this year. They’re like, no chance. I mean, I also said I was like, they have no chance. Like, Q365 and Tudtor are coming. Like, there’s going to be congestion in the pro teams and it’s just Yeah, it’s all worked out for the Uno X and UNID. Anyway, back to the route we have. Uh, they don’t really go, it’s so different. It’s also visually so different. No Britany, no north of France. There’s nothing north of Paris uh either side. Nothing really 500 km 300 km south of Paris even. We start in Catalunia. We had representatives from uh Tarragona, Barcelona and I don’t know. Yeah, both of them in Catalunia for the the opening three stages. Although stage three finishes in France, I believe they do cross the border. Uh we then head from Kakosant. We head uh west across the Pyrenees but with only one actual Pyrenees stage. So the Pyrenees has been made is a good stage, but they’ve got one Pyrenees mountain stage. Uh they head west then go north up through to Bordeaux and then obviously we’re going to have some sprints through there then into the Massive Central where we have L’Oreal and so that’s in the middle of the race as is normal. We have a few stages in the massive central. Then going further east uh from Vishi after they go there there’s an individual time trial and they do the al a couple of als stages two sort of mountain stages in also vo then yeah sorry then they head south to the voj and then further south to the alps. So it’s a backloaded route just from geographically when you go Alzas Voge and uh the Alps at the end all in the last seven days you’re going to have the harder stages back loaded. And I forgot to say there’s a team time trial to open the race in Barcelona which is 18ks. The individual time trials hilly or got one you know 9k 4% climb 26ks in the middle of the race. Like first impressions on just the map before we go into the individual uh individual routes. I don’t necessarily mind that the to France skips a certain part of France as long as it goes back to that area every now and then and we’ve got a tour of France that will start in Luxembourg in the coming years rumored to be. So we’re definitely going back to the north pretty soon and I’d like to hope we’re hitting the cobbles at some point as well again. I know it’s a controversial topic but I like to see a cobble at the to France every now and then. Now, you can’t read too much into the fact of, okay, we’re starting over at the Pyrenees, we’re ending at the Alps. At the end of the day, it depends on which climbs and which stages and which difficulty level they make those stages to make them either interesting or not. But, um, I sure as hell hope that the Barcelona team time trial start is not in the dark cuz that was a bit of a problem at the Vela in 2023. I think, uh, that will depend on, uh, Remu’s present, I think, but it’s in July. They’re chilling. The sun’s up until until 10:30. Well, if they start the race at 9, then we got energy. Yeah, exactly. But um is there anything more we can discuss in terms of start list before we go into individual individual stages? Because I feel like outside of the riders we mentioned earlier, there’s not much we know when it comes to the writers showing up. No, we don’t know. I mean, let’s just assume let’s just assume it’s going to be Remco Pogonis. I’m assuming there’s there’s no way Bora signed Remco to do Jirro just no way. That’s a possibility. I think it depends on 40 km time trials at the Jirro. Then it would lowkey be stupid not to do the combination. Kind of agree. Yeah, kind of agree. And they got Lipovitz can he can just prepare for the tour. Yeah. But yeah, I think I’m I’m assuming I’m assuming everyone in the top 10 is back. So that’s I’m assuming everyone is here. Every rider in World Tour. It’s the tour to France. Pogy and Yonas said it. You have you have to go. You have to go. And as I said, yeah, geography geography or where they are dictates the kind of stages you have. It sounds very obvious, but yeah, if you start in Barcelona, you have to do the Pyrenees on stage four or five. And if they don’t want to make and if they don’t want to end the race early, then they have to make the Pyrenees kind of yeah, not too many mountain stages there. Um, and then if you’re not going to the north of France because you’ve started in Catalunia, then you’re not you’re not if you’re not in Britany and you’re not in the north, you’re not going to have any punchy st many punchy stages. And we don’t there are almost no puncher stages except for at the start. Like I think that’s fine going through the Pyrenees in week one and making it a lighter version because of your starting area. I think that’s perfectly fine. It’s more that I feel like when I look at this map, there’s areas where I feel like there’s a lot of potential for stages like the Central Mass. We’ve had amazing stages there. We’ll get to it later. I feel like it’s a slightly worse stage than it could have been. And we’ll get into the in-depths there. And there’s a few moments like that I have when it comes to this parkour, but there’s also moments where I feel like, okay, this stage sounds a bit underrated maybe. So, the my overall review I’ll leave for the end of this, but I think it’s uh I think it’s time we get started when it comes to uh our stage bystage review and I’ll I’ll let you do the uneven numbers, Patrick, because you you look so happy today. So, stage one is yours, my friend. I am actually in a good mood today. I’m in a good mood for you. Yeah, it’s you know some I I don’t know why. But before we get into the stages Oh, are we both were we both going to do a segue? I was both going to do I was going to do a segue. Yeah, it has nothing to do with my mood. Uh but as I said, this episode is brought to you by Morton. Winter’s coming. Group rides are getting smaller. Maybe you’re indoors a lot, but the fueling challenges remain the same. Morton’s hydrogel system gels drink mixes make it easier to fuel consistently especially if you got backto back sessions. I remember this time last year we were having uh uh the masterclass series and Sim Holder spoke so much about how you should even fuel for tomorrow and I I’ve really taken that on board and if I’ve got a big maybe a big run tomorrow or race coming up later that day I make sure that I’m fueled up for that. And if you’re going to do long endurance rides in the winter, I’m about to be doing a lot of long endurance rides in Australia very shortly. Uh, thank thank Christ. Going off to Australia. So, yeah, this winter I know this is a winter read for all of you in nor in the northern hemisphere. I’m avoiding winter as usual. Is flexing on us in an ad. Abusing the listeners in an ad read. Um, I was thinking like how much Morton can I take in my check baggage and um before Mrs. Rouge gets really angry. Uh but yeah, I’ll be doing a lot of long endurance rides where I mix between drink mix and the solid uh solid bars to keep the carb intake steady. So if you want to get 20% off your first order at morton.com, you can go use the code lrm morton2025. That’s at morton.com to get 20% off your first order. Okay, stage one, like Benji said, I get to I get to take it away. We have a team time trial. Uh once again, I don’t get it. I just don’t get it. It’s from Barcelona to Barcelona. If you the logistics for for the teams, for the organizers, for everybody, the logistical effort for a 19k team time trial is identical to the logistical effort of a 35k team time trial. You still have to prepare the time trial bikes. You still have to have all the timing. The event itself is 15 minutes longer. 15 minutes longer. And you get to see the you get to see the big stars for longer in the city. Why is it so short? Good question. 19.5 km, the first 15 of which is relatively flat. Then after that, we’ve got 4 km of up down up to court the monik down again and then up towards the finish line. uh which I think is the exact same finish as stage two of Love Wela 2023 which was a road stage of course but I just look at this and I see a very city circuit team time trial as well which I’d rather see my team time trials in like open long roads where you can actually have the aerodynamic effect of a team time trial instead of teams desperately trying to get around corners without crashing etc. I I feel a bit icky about a city team time trial. I agree that it should be longer, but I think there’s also the reasoning that the to France Azo probably wants to make sure that the super teams don’t have a massive advantage on the smaller teams and maybe that’s why they limited, but I I’m just grasping. But it’s also a gimmick time trial where we’re not talking about the usual team time trial of four riders need to cross the line and their time counts of the fourth rider. We’re talking about the parane strategy of team time trials. So, it’s the first rider, but every rider’s individual time counts is what I’m trying to say. Yeah, every rider every rider sits sets their own time. So, this means that a team like UA Team Emirates could get away with just doing a full-on lead out for Tai Pogar to launch him on either the last climb or the second last climb in the last 5 km. That’s a realistic strategy here. I I don’t know. On one end, that is fun every now and then, but on the other end, I’ve got this feeling of it’s a team time trial. The whole point is that you have to work at together as a team to make it work. And yes, you’re working together to launch your rider, but it’s not the same. So, I don’t often agree with Richard Plug, but he was he was pointing out that this is basically a team leadout time trial, and it’s true. So, and they always finish them uphill. Yeah. Because they want have few launch their leader. And so crucially then it would be much more interesting to me if you have a very small climber. And I think we did see this and and it’s a flat finish and a big unit can go faster to win the stage. Then it’s more interesting to me cuz it’s like does Vanard have to wait for Vingard if the stage win is there when if but then Yeah. But when it’s uphill, but when it’s uphill, it’s just like you just launch Ving guard. I don’t think that example would happen. But I think another good example would be what if there’s a hill in the middle of the time? What if there’s a hill in the middle of the time trial that forces teams to decide? Do we launch our leader or do we stay together over the climb? Then there’s a tactical. We don’t have that here. But then again, the Barcelona finish off the Mwick. pretty cool finish for touristic purposes. And I think we sometimes overlook the fact that the organizers sometimes think that way when it comes to a stage like this, stage one in a Barcelona, which is basically, is it fair to say the second capital of Spain? Yes. The capital of the Mediterranean apparently. Capital of Catalunia. That controversial? No, it’s definitely the capital of Catalunia. Um well actually people would disagree. No I don’t think they would. I don’t think so. Maybe is capital of I mean Yada might be bigger than German. Let me check. Yada wouldn’t you? I’ve never heard of that in my entire life. Yeah, there’s no real reason to have. Uh but yeah, it’s a 19k team time trial. I think the gaps are going to be really small. like it’s going to be decided by seconds and it’s not really going to change and like you said all the big teams are the best time trial team time trial teams except I mean I disagree I disagree with the notion that team charm trials only benefit the like the rich teams they do but we’ve seen moistar do very good team time trials we’ve seen JCO do excellent team time trials and so I think it is also a discipline where with training skill a good plan, you can actually have a chance for another team to win a stage. I fully agree with that, but I believe that the standard rule is that more money equals easier to prepare for these kind of events. But you’re right that exceptions definitely exist and we’ve seen that in numerous ways where Green Edge back in the day was so good at this. They never had the best uh the best budget etc. They just were Australian and Australians do really well at Team Time Charles. Right, Patrick? But anyway, it’s pick this paraneise this year. They were 15 seconds behind um Vizma with six was starting with six riders and they didn’t have Durbridge who crashed out. They would have won that team time trial if they had Durbridge. UAE famously had a pretty bad time trial that day. Who do we see as the winner for this team time trial? Because Vismal Isab should be pretty good at it. But I kind of expect UAT Emirates to also be good at it. If you’re Inos, don’t you bring just don’t you bring Tarling and and Gan just for the week first week? But what if the Jirro has two long time Charles? Do you send him to the Jirro and then just to stage one of the val the Twitter fronts? Probably not. Ah did that this year to be fair. Who do I think wins this TTT? UAE. I also think UAE team Emirates. I think after stage one because it’s technical. I think if it was a big open plane TT and you got Vanard, Leaport, maybe Afeni, Army Rail. I think Leaport is back. The poor’s [ __ ] back. Yeah, but I think cuz it’s technical then you got I think that suits UAE more. And then the punchy finish, Pog could go crazy and take back 5 seconds. Okay, you take us to stage two, Benji. So stage two is 178 km. starts in Tarragona, which I’d like to believe is just next to Barcelona, and it finishes in Barcelona. The first 80 km is flat, but then we get a one of the only punchier stages, I would say. Halfway the race, we start with a longer climb, 6 km, 5%, then with about 50 km to go, there’s another one of those. 7 km at 5%, but the last two 30 km is three times the same climb, which is the Ku Castell, the Monik. So, it’s the MUI climb that we know from the Catalunia uh last stage that we know from the team time trial the day before the second last climb. It’s a climb we all know. And if I look closely at the finish line, do do we do we know the exact last 5 km? Cuz I see the Mui climb top with about 3 km. But do we finish on the same finish as stage one, the time the team time trial or or is it just a descent finish? Can’t be a descent finish, right? No, no, It’s a 600 meter 5.5% finish. It’s the the uh the Olympic stadium hill finish. So the same as the team time trial. Uh I’d like to believe similar. Not sure. Probably. Well, let’s go with similar. This is very This is Yeah. A punchy finish. This is like a lot of different guys could win this. It could be a Gregoire, Vocal, Vanderpool, Pagatcha, Vanart, a whole host of different riders. Who won this world 2023? I swear this stage existed. Was this the one won by Cone that was neutralized? Ooh, could be. I’m trying to figure it out. Stage. I think this would be a good stage because you’ll see, you know, you’ll see maybe Trek going for Pison into Oh, lotto into Mare for Benny or Delely. I think the reality is that that climb’s too hard. And yeah, one point what is it? It’s a mile at 8% with a 200 meter 13% kicker. Yeah, to me that’s Gregoire Vocal Pagatcha Vingard territory. So I think this is T Pogacha winning stage two of the tour to France 2026. Yeah. With a lead out from Narayas. Yep. Is that boring that we chose UA and Pog for the first two stages? Actually, I’m thinking no. I think that’s it. Yeah, I think that’s probably what happens. It’s just a simple thing. Um, no, it’s not boring. It’s reality. Uh, no eyes also could win it. Frankly the but it’s it’s a good finish. Uh stage three they go from Catalunia long stage 196ks from Granz to Leangz which is uh in just over the border into France. It’s a long mountain transition stage with soft clims. They start with like 16k or 25k sort of gradual uphill then a valley. Then they do the gold toes which is 9ks at 6 and a half% but really it’s 4ks at 9% at the end. That’s about 60 70ks from the finish. Then they go down go through Alp and Puker. Then they go up some softer climbs to cross the border. The cold calv 15k is at 4% descent and then the finish is uh 1700 m at 7.6%. So, it’s a punch over finish after a long long ass stage. This is screaming break to me. To me as well because you’ve got that climb at the start that really could blossom breakaway formation. You’ve then got a period until the climbing starts where that break can get a gap. And once the gap is there, the gap will remain. And then you’ve got a T pugatcha that may not want to have the yellow jersey on his shoulders the entire 21 days for the fact of okay. There ain’t no way they’re controlling 200ks for an uphill sprint against Gregoire. It’s not that hard. I don’t see that either. I don’t see that either. So, this is breakaway to me as well. But well, can we can we talk about the fact that we’re crossing the border from from Catalunia to to France and we’re skipping and did the money dry up after the Andor criterion? M. Did they spend the Andor criterion money on that instead of getting a stage next year? I don’t know who’s winning this, by the way. Breaway stages to predict that eight months out. I’m sorry, but I’ve got no clue yet. Breakaway. Who’s Who’s allowed? I would sign Victor Lefay. I would sign Victor Lefay for this one stage. I give him minimum minimum salary, but he gets a bonus, a huge bonus if he goes in the break on this stage cuz he’ll win. Did I read he was going to sell cheese in Japan or am I inventing that [ __ ] something like that. But this is a great That is fascinating. Stages two and three are really good for Lefay. Um Pison can win this stage. Healey Simmons. I’m going to go with uh Quinn Simmons. Imagine if Chicone is in this race and loses time on stage two to go in the breakway on stage three. No, no, no. Shrek will pull the pelon in this stage. I’m telling you this stage is won by imagine if Don Bitcock’s here and loses time on purpose to go in the breakaway on stage three. No, that will pull as well for Pog. [ __ ] Can we please nobody just don’t pull he has eyes doing a lead out. Dude, you’re not going to win. Am I really supposed to guess a winner from this eight months out? It’s No. No. It’s Quinc. Yeah, I like that. It’ll be a good one. That’s my pick for this. If he doesn’t lose time on stage two, I’m going to go squeeze him like a a towel. Who? You know what I mean, right? I think he’s not a GC rider. He’s allowed to take the jersey. He’s a danger for everybody. What was he the guy that people were chasing? He wouldn’t let him break. I swear there was a stage where someone was chasing a breakway with Armai V. Visma didn’t let take the jersey in the world that he was going to take invisible. Oh no. Horrible. And then he goes to Vizma. Why is there no grudge? I don’t know. I don’t know, man. But yeah, I think I maybe something. There always could be something. I think with the uphill start, this has to be a break. All right, stage four, Benji. Stage four starts in Kason. I swear there’s usually sprint stages there. But this time we start with a eh versatile stage I would classify it to 180 km with five categorized climbs. So that’s a lot of climbing on paper, but I’m talking three relatively easy climbs in the first half. 9 km 3% 4 km 4% 6 km 4%. In the middle of the stage there’s the hardest climb or the longest climb I would say. 11 km 5.5%. And then there’s one more climb in the last with 40 km to go 5.6 km 6.8%. These are not impossible to survive stages for some of the more versatile sprinters I would say. But there is terrain to drop a pure sprinter though if someone really tries. Yeah, I think so. It’s It’s pretty hard like 7% for 6ks if you’re tre the whole route doesn’t scream Johnny Milan to me but no Peterson this is a pretty hard and the break I mean you got 11k 5 and a half% I think this is I think this is a sprint it has to be because they they’ve had three stages where they’ve been denied so far it’s a sprint but the teams like Tre maybe Vizma for Vanard. Lotto for De or Bini for not match you Brandon. Come on. Brandon would win stage one. Two the team. Yeah. And individually he would win it. I three he can win against Pog from the Pelaton. And then four as well. Five. Yeah. So like fair enough. the I think a versatile sprint team goes absolutely apeshit on that climb and drops Merlier. Okay. I don’t think they’ll drop every single sprinter like that. I think Philipsson could survive that stuff like that. So, Philips will survive. I mean, Philips will survive it, but I don’t think they’ll be the ones pulling. Uh, they winning though. Who’s fast? Yeah, I’ll go. We don’t know who’s faster. We haven’t done the cycling awards yet. Patrick, come on. I don’t think Molia survives this. If he wins, you owe him a coffee. I’m going poor man. Yay. I changed my mind. I like the call. I’m not sure he’ll be here. Yeah, I think cuz he had a failed Jurro. I would say I think they’ll send him to a Jurro Velta, which to be honest, I still think he should have gone to the Velta despite his success at Slovakia, etc. Yeah. Uh, who are you picking? Uh, Philipson. Okay. Next stage, stage five. We are going now east to Po. Po has to have a stage. It’s the law from Lana Maza to Po. It’s also, we do have some punchy hills here. It’s a pretty soft start though. So, I’d say you’re going to get a pretty weak breakaway. That’ll be controlled by the the really big sprint teams. We have a collection of three climbs back to back to back across 10ks. They’re all about yeah 1k to 1.6k is long 5 to 7%. I also think here yeah people are going to try to drop Mley. I mean especially the way Milan was climbing at the back end of Milan should never be dropped on these collection of three climbs. The day before I think you can drop him but here he shouldn’t be. But I think they’re going to go Yeah, I know. I know. It’s not looking good. So, it’s And they got they got 26ks to come back. I’m going I’m going Milan. Milan to win this. Yonathan or Mate? I can do that now. Okay. I’m going for I think Milan’s a great pick. I think Malier I’m not super confident that he’ll get over this 100%. I um the question that I have is if the parkour doesn’t shout Milan, will he even be at the tour to France? Yeah, but I mean Pison’s not beating Philips in this in this stage. Yeah, but the stage before the stage before Tre can make it so hard on that 15minute climb that maybe Yeah, but Pison’s bunch sprint this year has not looked good. I agree. I’m going for Arnold Dele for stage five. Oh, that’s a nice one. Yeah, stage six, our first mountain stage. Okay, once again, starting off in Paul. So, we start where we left off and it’s uh it’s a stage of 186 km. I swear I’ve said that number three times already in this uh in this podcast, but this is actually a mountain stage. The first 100 km is basically flat, but the first proper climb starts. Then we’ve got the cold span 12 km at 6.5% followed by the cold to male Patrick 17.3 km at 7.2%. Epic climb always. And then we dive down. And with about 19 km to go, we go on to the final climb. 19 km at 3.7%. I’ve got a hot take for you, Patrick. Very hot take. I would have absolutely loved this stage design if it started with a climb at the start of the race. That would have made it near perfect stage design because it reminds me a lot of Jirro stages with a big mountain before a smaller mountain. Yeah, but I think they don’t want the break to win. Yeah, but I want a fight across the entire stage. So they basically when it’s a flat start like this, it’s really hard to get the brake going and then it’s really hard for an actual good climber to get in the breakaway and then the brakes smaller. The climbers can’t get an advantage and then you can put UA can just put Neil’s polar on the front to to manage things. So that’s why I think they start them like this. Luke also says there’s no hard climbs around Po. Um, make one. Yeah, make one. The Dutch did it with the Vanber. Yeah, make one. I would say they got the money for two starts and finishes of stages every year. They got a 100 million revenue per year. They can make a [ __ ] mountain. Okay. The Pyrenees right there. So sorry, not revenue. Po. Uh ASO. Oh, okay. I’m not sure Po can afford to make him out the I actually like this stage. I like having the a really hard climb and then like an uphill finish. I think the tom is so hard that like some team has to try and then you have a you do have an uphill valley afterwards where you can attack or I mean if if Pog is solo Benji Mhm. against Vingar oneonone on like a 4% uphill he has a big advantage for sure. Certainly. For sure. It’s also a stage where it’s valuable to try and get a satellite ride over the turmal which will be very difficult because of the fact that there’s no climb at the at the start here. So that’s partially why I wanted a bit of a bump in the road before we before we have a breakaway formation because that would allow the ability to send satellite riders up the road, make it a bit more interesting towards what could happen after the turmal. I still think this will be a banger of a stage. I think we’ll see activities on the turmal. Sorry. This era of cyclists don’t look at the turmo and say turmo we don’t do anything here. That doesn’t happen here. So we’ll see action. We’ll see fights between the best. And um who is going to win this stage? I think I’m afraid I’m going with Donnie Pogacher. Or do you think break? I I think the break is controlled. I think the most likely scenario is the break is controlled by a GC team. Uh there’s action on the tormale and the GC riders neutralize each other and then it stops in the valley rides off. It stops in the valley and a guy like a Sichas rides away. Yeah. Okay. But you Yeah. But UA will have UA will have our mater. Ooh, not a good pick. I’ll attack with Del Toro on the false flat uphill and then Vizma after control. No, so I think that’s a I think that’s a very viable pick that stage seven yours from from Hagadmal to Bordeaux 175ks. It’s an absolute flat sprint stage and Tim Merier is winning this. Tim Miller is winning that. At stage eight, we’ve got Perigu. Did I pronounce it correctly? I think I did. I’ll go with it. finishes in Berak once again. Flat sprint stage. The winner of this is going to be Talier. Yep. Stage nine, 185ks from Malmore Bad Death to Usel. Uh 185 km long. This is a hilly stage. I think it’s over 3,000 m of climbing. It’s in the Massive Central. It’s not that hard. There’s no GC action. One would expect a really really strong team could control this for a sprint for Maz Pison for Biny for Dele for Van Matthew Brennan and uh but Ben Healey will have other ideas. I think yeah for sure. And it’s also this is the kind of stage where I expect Walnar to try and join the break when he’s in the breakway both intermediate sprint. That’s what I’m looking at. This is these these sort of stages are key for the green jersey battle. And there was apparently there’s talks that the there might be two intermediate sprint points because they really don’t want Pagatcha to win the green jersey. Utter woke nonsense. Make it 20. It is woke nonsense. Yeah. No, no, no. They need to make it 20. Imagine a intermediate sprint every 15 km in a sprint stage so that the sprinters have to decide how much they’re willing to invest into each intermediate sprint to have some energy left at the finish. Just do it for one stage. Absolute chaos. The That would be cool. Yeah. Like a golden gold golden 15 km every golden stage green. The the reason Pogna won the green jersey is because they kept making 50 point stages on [ __ ] GC stages like the murder Bratana or something. It’s like and then Vanderpool was also like Vanderpool refused to win the green jersey. Yeah, exactly. And but yeah, this is I think an important stage for the green jersey battle. I think it’s going to be Tim Wellins and uh it could be it’s going to be someone like Tim Tim Wellins, Quinn Simmons, Pison, Vanard in the Break, um Camponauts, Healey, that sort of rider and uh yeah, it’s hard to it could be any of them. My head shouts Simmons. But the reality of the situation is that I look at this stage and I say, “Oh, he’ll be chained to Pison.” These are one of the only stages present in this race where I feel like there’s maybe two of them. Ooh, did we skip the existence of Machu Vanderpool for the stage two Barcelona finish? Or do we just think he’s not going to show up because of the race? I reckon, that’s my assumption. I reckon he might not do it because there’s not enough in it for him. But he Yeah. And also because of the TTT. No, they’re not. He’s not taking yellow on stage two after the TTT, right? No. No. No. They’re not going to be within 10 seconds. It also reduces the lead out of of Phillips though if you don’t have much of the pool here. True. I don’t think there’s that much for him here. I agree. But I I agree in that sense, but it is such an addition to the team to have him just for lead outs alone. Yeah, I know. But there’s Yeah. Anyway, who Yeah, I think it’s going to be one of those rulers. Let me have the first Wait, are we nine stages in and you have not said to our audience that Raul Garcia Pier is going to win a stage? Oh, yeah. Which one’s he winning? Um, stage 10. Let’s talk about it. Uh, stage three looks really good for him. Stage 10 is 176 km in the central massif masif central. Don’t know how you say it. We’ve got oral yak as a start. The finish is le which um we’ve had that finish before. We’ve got pari in this stage. If you don’t know, Pimati was the was the climb we had in 2024 before we had the other climb that I don’t remember the name of where Vingo ends up beating Pogachu in that stage. But we also had Primari but way before that on a stage finish between Daniel Filipe Martinez and who was he fighting on the first time we saw Pimari? Shakman and Kem. Shakman and Ka. Yes indeed. But um this stage is basically relatively flat for the first half. The second half is where the I would classify some medium mountains begin. We’ve got 60 at 7 at 7% midway the stage. And we’ve got 3 km at 6% just after that. Then we’ve got a climb of 6 km at 5% just after that. But I would say the the final starts with 40 km to go. You’ve got the primari clim. It is the easier side of that climb. It’s 7.8 km at 6% but the last two kilometers are 8.8% average. So there is a a jumping plank in that climb. And after that you’ve got two more climbs. The the ku perus which is the second last climb with 20 km to go. That’s 5 km at 8.3%. And then finally we’ve got one more climb with about 5 km to go. I’d say 3.5 km at 6%. So there’s two jumping planks in this stage. You’ve got the primari climb to do so on the last 2 km or the cold perus to do so. That is how I perceive the stage. At first impressions, I was a bit disappointed in this stage because I felt like climbing the easier side of Pimari. I feel like there’s more possible in the area of Masif Central, but I still think the last 40 km will be action-packed and very entertaining. Why take one of the best stages of the last two years, replicate it 90% but make it worse? Yep. That’s also my take. It was 211k so it was an hour longer in 2024 that did that contribute to Vingard coming back and Pogy getting tired maybe. did the Pimry being so hard and Pagatcha attacking like a madman there early, you know, like they just kind of made it just a bit worse. So, I think it’s is Pog going to control this? Is UA going to control? Cuz like no one’s delusional anymore, right? Except maybe Bora that they are going to control this stage to win from the Pelon apart from UAE. Are they going to control for this? This is a Ben Healey stage victory for me with a GC action behind. It’s a soft finish though. But if you but if you go on Perus Yeah. Yeah. But he never goes on the final climb. So yeah, I mean GC wise, what do you think happens? I expect GC action from Yeah. from at least Gerus maybe on I think it’s a good stage. Yeah. if you’re like an Oscar only to attack Lipovitz. I don’t think it’s a great stage for like Lipovitz. And um yeah, it’s weird because the stage where he had difficulties last year was a stage where companys in the descent shredded it behind the motorbike. That’s how he got gapped in that stage as well. Technical. So I’m I’m not sure a medium mountain stage is really the trouble of Lipovitz. I’d expect him to do okay here. Stage two in Barcelona, he might lose 20 seconds. Yeah. Uh yeah, maybe hard to go Ben Healey. Hard to go past him. Okay, you can go to stage 11, my friend. Stage 11 from Vishi to Ne. It’s uh absolutely flat sprint. Vishy. Yeah. It’s a flat sprint stage. Vishi. Yeah. No water. No free hats. Please send me more sparkling water. The flavored one. Uh yeah, it’s flat sprint stage. I’ll go Johnny Milan. Okay, I’m going with uh Timier. Sorry, I’m just picking him every time. Stage 12 is a flat sprint stage, 180 km. Timier, I’ll go Timier for this one. And again, yeah, like the Pettison Milan thingy is quite interesting to me. Well, there is two little hills in the last 20 km, the last 40 km, but it’s we’re talking about 3 km, 4%. No, no, no. I’m mean, do they bring both? Like the more I go through this parkour, the more sprint stages that I realized that there were I thought they were less when I first impressioned this race. No, they’ve just like they put them in like week two has two absolutely flat sprint stages. So, and week one as well on stage Yeah. seven and eight. So that’s well that’s technically week two. But stage 13 is what we would call it’s 205ks from Dole to Bell 4 is Bour on the Dole after the the Wolf of Wall Street and it’s got uh flat for the first 150 km then a 5k 5% climb a warm up and then they then they do Yeah. See that was a good one. Then they do the the balon dalas which is 9ks at 7 or 6.8% descent also downhill valley. There’s a 800 me 5% kicker with a little punch. I love these with 4ks to go. I really like those sort of additions. Uh and then it’s a flat finish in bour. This is what one would describe as a versatile sprint stage. Oh, I got van art. First off, sprint stage or breakaway stage, but the flat makes it easier to control. The length makes it harder to control. It’s still 200 km. So, that’s how I perceive it. Obviously, if you want to win the stage, if you’re in the Pelaton, you got to catch the breakway before the top of the big climb, I would say. Yeah, cuz if you haven’t, good luck catching them afterwards. Um, I have absolutely no clue who’s going to win this stage. a versatile sprinter. It’s Pison Nova. I’m trying I’m trying to find a pick that is not those names, but I’m not finding it. So, I’m going with me Pison on stage 13 here. Like again, we don’t know if Milan shows up. We don’t know if Peterson shows up, but I don’t give a [ __ ] We’re predicting eight months out, so we we’re allowed to be wrong. Stage 14 is uh it’s a mountain stage, Patrick. We’ve got mountain stages here. It starts in Mulus. It finishes on La Marstein 15 155 kilometers. Not the craziest length, but quite a bit of climbing in it. We’ve got the uh first climb starting with 14 km into the stage, which this basically means that you’ll have this dynamic of rulers going up the road on the flat in the first 14 km and then climbers eventually making the actual breakaway on the climb itself because it’s a big first climb, the Grand Balon. It’s uh 22 kmters at 5% but there’s steeper portions in that. I think the last 6K is 7.5%. And then we go downhill. The second climb is called the Bash which is 10 km at 5%. So again not the craziest climb. Then the Balonas 10 km at 7% and then we are basically with 50 km to go after that third climb. And in that last 50 km we’ve got a smaller climb first. The oh god I have to put my head sideways here. The kuir 4 km at 5% followed by another small climb the ku which is four kilometers at 5% then a small flat section of 7k before we start the final climb. And the final climb is the actually a climb I had never heard of the cold hag or haj which I had literally never heard of that. It’s a combination of two climbs in a row. And I don’t have the exact length of both climbs together, but I think it’s, let me calculate for a second. It’s I think it’s 10.9 km 7%. And then we’ve got flat until the finish for the last 5 km. So I think this is first climb shouts breakaway formation. Lots of riders trying to go in the breakaway. But it’s also an 11 km climb at 7%. You got to know the answer. To break what? The climb is named after a Dutch football manager, Eric T. Don’t tell me it’s named after Tunha. I’m not having this [ __ ] Therefore, who won? Who won the last stage like this? It was stage 415 of the tour to France 23 when Wild Pools dropped to Wanar and Mark Solair on an irregular Bojlet um on an irregular climb where it was 3ks at 10% at the beginning while Pools is winning this stage for the Rockets. I swear there’s a similar stage that Leonard Kamna won against Kapas in that one was these are more irregular cuz that final climb is in three steps. ly. Yes, it’s 3k is 9% break, 3k is more climbing, and then the last mile is at 10 and a half%. So, it’s I stop saying mile. I’m not having this [ __ ] I’m too lazy to start. But you’re imperial nonsense. Is that imperial? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Obviously, Pagache can win. Um, that’s what it goes. Quipil wins. Quaill wins from the breakaway after doing zero GC and falling out not being able to sustain GC activities at the to France. I think yeah break wins. I think pools wins. Uh stage 15 quite an interesting stage 183.5ks from Shanol to plate plateau de sole. We saw the sol 2020 2 do when Vingergard uh waited for Rogitch and Connor was third. It is rolling at the start. It’s there’s no like big climbs at the start but then there’s 130k in a very very hard climb. 7.6k 6K is at 9% the cold de la Rosette or it’s called Le Salv it actually is like Marie Blancc it’s like 25 minutes 22 minutes and the last 4Ks are 11 or last 4K is like 11 12% or 5ks even so very similar to Marie Blancc uh which was in the 2023 parkour you then do a descend 3K 7 and 12% climb then a rolling downhill of 30 km before you do the solo on which is very very hard 11.6k 6ks average 9%. The start is harder. Start averages for 3k iss like 10%. And um yeah, I think this is a pretty good stage assuming something happens on the on the lev climb. I have the same opinion because I look at the stage with the breakaway formation factor at the start where there’s enough climbing to make that interesting and then like you say that that lassalev climb with 50 km to go. Yes. Would it have been better if it’s 20 konas before the final climb instead of 35? Probably. But they got to work with what they have. And first of all, Plateau de Solon coming to the tour of France after being in the Dany. Fulong won first I think in 201 15. Pure guess Luke will have to uh have to look at that. But lasalev is a climb where it’s so incredibly steep. Reminds me of the de ki from the bit. It’s an actual rampine human to the point it’s harder than marie blanc. Right. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. This is where if you want you can explode the race completely on that climb. The question is what happens afterwards if you do it. That’s the fascinating part. And I’d like to believe then that in this era of cyclists, if Pagacha has 2 minutes in GC and Vizma needs to find a way to try and try and try something in the rest of this tour of France that they don’t just skip over a stage like this where there’s opportunity to try and exploit it with 50 km to go before the final clim starts and try and create chaos. That’s fascinating to me. So I think this is really good stage design but the outcome will depend on whether the writers are willing and are able to do something with it. That’s the reality of the situation. Stage winner Patrick Taga most likely but I agree it’s because for let’s say UA bring Del Toro instead of Almeida. Yeah. Del Toro is getting dropped on that on that climb cuz he can’t climb um on L. That’s a controversial take. If it goes above 8% is his curtain. So Patrick, did you not did you not see the recent Pandora criterium where you beat Bugattacho in the road? Right. I watched Lombardia and 6% he was chilling and then the last 3ks it went to 8 and a half% boom. So if you can point the jurro you can climb. Let’s Let’s not pretend that climbing means you have to be able to do seven watt per kilo for 40 minutes. My list of riders that can climb and there’s three and a half three and half a ving. Yeah, it’s Pagacha and Vingard in in in summer. They can climb. And even on live only on Long Alpine, they can climb. But yeah, I forgot oneo exists. Yep. Huano when stage got I don’t think he to France. Tracker got P. No, I think he Benji should go to the to France. Why do you think he transferred? I’m just joking. This is the point. I think we should should do all three grand tours to be honest. Honestly. Yeah. This is not This is not a good stage. This is not a good stage for Auzo. Not a good stage for him. Good stage for Onley. Um, it’s good for We can say whatever we want. It’s a mountain stage of 12 km at 9% wins if the breakaway does not win. There’s no other outcome here. Yeah. Yeah. But I’m more mean in the in the battle for the podium or whatever white jersey. I think it’s a really good stage for the really light guys evidently cuz it’s so steep. Um, on the other hand, then we have the second rest day. Take us to stage 16, Benji. Stage 16 is the biggest disappointment in this entire tour to France. It’s a 25.5 km time trial starting in Avon Leba. Pretty sure Avon’s a water brand in Belgium. Then we’ve got Tona at the finish. Sounds like a tuna brand. It’s a water brand also. No. Yeah. Go on. It’s not. It’s only in Belgium. this climb uh this stage this time trial starts with a 9 and a half km climb which is basically 4% so it’s not it’s a fast-paced climb that’s important to note then there’s a I’d like to believe fastpaced descent for the next 6 km roughly before we have 9 km of flat individual time travel in this entire tour to France Patrick I cannot tell you how disappointed I am that we don’t have a 40 km ometer flat troll in the store to France. I’m sorry, but can I just sketch the situation here for a second? Yasing on what terrain is he better than Pogachar? Like the real answer is no terrain. 15k 15% climb. 15k 15% that doesn’t exist in France. In what ter in on what terrain? So why haven’t France made that? I told you earlier Paul should have made a mountain. But no on a serious note on what today in his ramp better than Pogachar flat TT. So the only terrain on which a rider is better outside of flat sprint stages than Pogachar is a flat time trial. And I see Purdom and that route making guy that I GU the guy that can’t make straight sprints finishes. I’m sorry. They’re yapping for a day and a half now about our trying to make it as backloaded as possible so that it’s not obvious that T they’re not saying Tagach, but it’s not obvious that it’s done so early in the race. the the opportunity of making a stage that is better for one rider than Pugachar is a flat time trial and then they don’t do it or Hilly TT this time troll is not terrible for them quaving either but it’s still 20 5 km time trial with 9 km of flat I’m sorry I think Vigard is better than Paga in time trial bike TTS with steep pills. Yeah, but which this is not but I think and the dolphin he beat him in the doofan on that on that [ __ ] I am not taking in that dolphin at any point in my entire life. What? So Pog wasn’t good the next two days. We we will I I choose to ignore that troll. We can’t have it both ways. This is like when people like people can have bad days. No, Pagata doesn’t have bad days. We he had bad had bad this is like in 2023 years ago 2023 2023 everyone’s like he’s a co 19 patient zero on cold laa that’s why and then he does 6.5 for 20 on larkstein two days later it’s like which is it which is it hey I have always held the point that people can have bad days he didn’t have a bad day or person I think on the steep I think he struggles on the TT bike on steep climbs That’s why he used a road bike in the uphill TT in Paragood. But this isn’t that. This is a 4% climb average without Ramas. So I think Pog just wins it anyway. I um I think Ramco’s not even here by this point. Jesus Christ. We went from going for GC to winning a breakaway stage not being here up to stage 16. What are we doing? I think if Ramco’s here, he can still win this time trial. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. At 4% is TT bike. Yeah. Yeah. Remco territory still. So, I’m going Remov stage 16. I’m just saying that it is really disappointing to me that there’s no long time trials anymore in the sport of cycling. I know. Are we becoming cycling traditionalists? A few years ago, we were the ones, who cares? Who cares? And now we’re both like, where’s the long time trolls? Where where’s the where’s the normal team Tom trolls? Where where’s the 200 kmter mountain stages? I was I was hoping for a um 200 I was hoping for 12 pure sprint stages but Duffy style a 35k TTT just on big roads and then like a yeah 50k ITT and then I was hoping for like a 23 I was hoping that the the queen stage was 230 and it was the last day 230k 7,000 m climbing. Imagine if you’ve got this entire same parkour but the last queen stage is 230 km to France looks better already. I agree. Yeah. Um but anyway yeah I think I think Pog wins stage 16 because it’s actually not that hard to climb and in the stage 20 the N TT on that sort of gradient he was very strong. Uh having just nine flat kilometers in an entire tour to France individual time trial kilometers is a bigger crime towards France than the L than stealing some crown jewels from the Louver. They had to bring me in. They’re like to to find the crown jewels. Yeah. To solve the crime. Who did it? Well, I’m not going to tell you. I’m in the m middle of investigating. So that’s why Wait, wait. No, no, no, no, no. Where were you on the day where the crown jewels were stolen, Patrick? In transit. In transit. I was moving. I was around. You have proof of that. No, you were moving away from the crime scene. Um, uh, stage 17 from Shawnberry, the headquarters of Dathlon H2R to Von. Uh, this normally I think this is a sprint stage because it has to be I think it has to. I think it’s a sprint stage. Normally I’d say it’s a transition stage, but the sprinters have been here for so long and they’ve got nothing else until stage 21. It’s the only reason you’d stay in the race if you’re a sprinter. So I think they have stage 21. You mean if it’s like neutralized or protest? But it’s more martra. No. Yeah. But like a sprinter can survive the new one. The new marcher. Okay, we’ll get into that. Yeah, they can survive that. But yeah, I think this is sprint. I’m going with uh up sprint. Sprint. Yeah, delay. Okay. I think that’s a very good pick. I’m going with Yasper Phillips. Stage 17 winner. Stage 18 is Starts in Von 185 km finishes on Orier Melet. Is Orier Mlet the finish where Guom Martan won? No. Podium behind Rogich or something. I swear G Martan attacked on that climb. Yeah. Gu Martan G Martan was forced by co to not over race himself and then he came out of out of the lockdown actually in good shape. Yeah. But anyway, this stage has a climb after 20 km. So, a breakaway formation climb I would say. And that breakaway formation climb is it says 12 km at 5.5% but there’s an outlaw put on top a extension to the climb which falls that uphill for another 10 km. So, the shouts breakaway formation climb to me and the rest of the stage shouts breakaway as well because it’s basically up and down throughout the stage with a finish on our sierlet which is 7k at 7%. This is a breakaway victory for me. Or UAE controls, which they could technically do. They could do it. Yeah, but I don’t actually expect them to do it. It depends on the race situation. But indeed, if UA want the stage for Pog, they’ll try to control it and he can win. Otherwise, yeah, it’s it’s a good climbing breakaway option for dumping. Uh, yeah, it could be any any climb a good the the best climber that had a bad luck in week one, fell out of GC, and then they’re in they’re going for it. So, I go, it’s not the hardest climb, though. Del Torto, it’s uh Yeah, you’re really hammering on the Del Torto can’t climb take, are you? He can climb. It’s 7 6.8. 28%. Okay. No, I’m saying I’m saying on the random stage to Bordeaux there’s like a crosswind split and he missed. I don’t know. I think it’s like maybe I use Del Toro. Yeah. Jine. I’ll accept it. Raul Garcia. No. Okay. I guess not. Oh, yes. He’s a very good climb for Ra Garcia. It is. Yeah. It’s a very good stage for him. Yes. I’m changing my pick to him. Okay, stage 19. It’s 129ks from gap to Abd and there it starts with 5 12ks at 6.8%. Then they do the cold no which is 7.3k 8% that was used as the like final climb in stage 17 of the Twitter fronts 2024 when car has won. Then there’s a long rolling valley. Then they do a warm up 5.6k 6.2% 2% descent and then the ald dew 14k is 8% short stage pretty easy stage and uh I think they’re going to go fast up Alz and yeah it’s basically a almost an aldue unito stage it’s as close as it gets to it you’ve got breakaway formation clowns but it’s so short of a stage that this is a controllable stage for the likes of UAE or whoever wants to control it but likely UAE team emerald so this is for me Pogacha wins on Abduis I think the KM of Aldo is in the hands of Pontani maybe, but yeah, that’s a time that I’m like last year I expected don’t break it. I don’t think so cuz last year I expected them to be closer to uh Riss Otakam as well than they were Pugachar and I don’t expect Pogachar to beat Pontani’s time on Aldo here. I don’t think so either. I think he’d have to use it. He’d have to use I think going from the bottom he won’t be able to do it because they didn’t improve this year the climbing speeds compared to last year. He would need that that dude on a scooter from Dwars London to be as Danny. But that’s what if he goes with the leader at the bottom and then goes solo. I don’t think he can do it. I think you do need to draft for a bit longer halfway at least. So yeah, I’m not sure we’ll break it. Yeah, Pog’s a favorite to win that stage. All right, stage 20. The the jewel of the race. The jewel of the race, the ones that Patrick has stolen from the louver is right here. We’ve got 172 km starting La Bourgeois. We’ve got the first climb being called the quadair which already a big climb that is 24.2 Yeah, 24.2 km at 5%. That’s the first climb. We’ve got a small valley 12 km before we get to the second climb which is a combination of two climbs. We know it from the uh granol stage called the telegraph and then called galib. So telegraph is 12k 7% followed by directly followed by just from the top by the way the cool galib 17.5 km 6.8% so stuff can happen on the stage already at this point now we’ve got a smaller climb towards the finish which is the saren 7.2 2 km 8.3% which that top still with 15 km to go. Then you’ve got downhill uphill downhill uphill. The last 4 km at 6%. But somehow that last 4 km 6% is considered finishing on Aldo. I think that’s a technically it’s true but I think that’s a crime against the name of Aldis. It’s a good stage design. I like it. Stuff’s going to happen on the Galibby, I believe. But I’m sorry, you can’t call a 4 km climb of the west. That is illegal. I think this stage would be perfect if there was like if the finish was slightly harder or if they made it Yeah. just longer. Just make it like style. I just more like the timi de laed sort of like a steeper finish. Um, for me it’s I would have preferred the stage more if there was more of a gap between quadair and gulliba telegraph cuz then there’s more time for a breakaway with potential satellite riders to get a gap to get over the gullib in the first place to be valuable either on the last climb or in the last 15 km. That’s impossible here. I think is this the only stage where the penultimate climb is longer than 20 minutes. No turmo. No, but like that. No, that doesn’t count that valley. The tom is the tom is the last climb. But I’m not having this [ __ ] No. Respect the 18 km 4% climb, buddy. They’re on a [ __ ] highway in the mitten. That’s not a climb. It literally goes uphill. There is really no like classic mountain stages at all. No, like I guess you can say the GR the Grand Balon. Yeah, the Grand Balon. Fair enough. Yeah, stage 14. Yeah, stage 14. But that’s even that has a like recovery period in it. Yeah, but it’s also we’re talking about 150 km 170 km stage. I’m sorry, but where’s this? There’s one classic HC stage with long climbs. That’s crazy. Um, yeah, obviously if you’re behind NGC, you got to try something on the on the Golibier. You can’t wait for a 7K 8% climb this uh the Saren. And so we could see this is the um yeah, this is like the granol stage, but they have a slightly different finish and slightly easier finish. I guess it’s different to the gr I think the granol stage was shorter and did not have quite a fair didn’t have quite aair uh but had like a longer flat break formation so I think it’s going to be a good stage and we’ll see who wins the tour to France after this I think so as well but we have to talk about I think this is the perfect time to do so the effect that they’re trying to create predomin I’ve mentioned it ready. They’re trying to postpone the time at which the race has been decided. That’s how they’re advertising their their route creation here. First of all, Plato the Solison Marstein the Turmali stage on stage six. That combination alone is enough to already make a pretty clear view of who’s going to win this race. You will never know certain before stage 20. That’s that’s true. But if Baja has 5 minutes before stage 20, which is not impossible, then the race is already decided before stage 20. And on the other side of the coin, by making the race softer up to stage 20, you’re creating a race that could potentially be decided later than earlier, but you’re also creating a race that has less terrain for the opponents of Pugachar to consistently hit at Pogacha on, making it, in my opinion, just as likely for Pogachar to win this race. And I have nothing against Pogacha winning the to France, but I don’t think their strategy, if that is the goal you’re trying to make, works. Every parkour you can make is pugatch territory. I think the only difference is to like have harder climbs earlier and then you’re more likely to induce chaos where he’s isolated earlier. Um because yeah like it is possible to drop a wellins and navas. So but yeah like on like what are you going to do? What are you going to do on that al stage 19? I mean nothing nonsense. You just wait and then everyone has a whopper kilo test for half an hour. So uh yeah stage 20 could be good and we’ll see who wins. It it could even be if it comes back together and nothing. I mean, if Pog is if if Pog is kind of ahead and then he’s over it like this year or just not good enough to drop Vingard, then you may you see the the guys going for third. Lipovitz attacking. I think it’s a great liit stage. So, I’m going to go Lipovitz wins this stage with Pog and Vingard kind of just riding it in. Okay, I’m going with Felix Gwins from the breakaway. Oh, yeah. It’s an uphill start, too. suits in stage. Stage 21, that’s yours. From to uh Tori to Paris, we have That’s the Conservative party in the UK, buddy. Uh this is they brought Matra back. It was much the applause. There was applause in the crowd for this. Everyone loved the Matra stage. 130ks. They do three repetitions of the same the kotab matra which is 1k 5 and a half% uh cobble climb uh but it’s further from the finish. So now it’s 17ks from the finish. This is a sprint stage normally. I mean if you’re a sprinter you should be able to get over a 1k 5% climb 17ks from the finish. I have no to what you just said. I’m sorry. I actually ignored you completely. Like Jordi Mayos should be able to survive this climb that far from the finish. Yes. Yes. But if it rains like this year, then the race is different. Yeah. If it rains, if it opens up, if GC is neutralized, it could be different. But yeah, I think this is a I think this is a sprint. And so I’m going with going with Yeah, I’ll pick a Bora. I’ll pick two Boris in a row. Jordy May. I’m going with Arnold Dei. Fair enough. Um, okay. That’s the root reaction. It’s very, very different to this year in terms of there’s no there’s no what I would call hectic technical stages cuz even the Barcelona one, it’s big roads coming into that circuit and it’s not like to me that’s fine. I’m I eventually by the to lose stage I was over it. Like I’ve like I’ve seen six punch earth stages now. I’m I’m good. Um there’s a lot of I think I think they’re trying to have more mountain break stages for different winners and that’s what I think will happen. It it all depends on how hungry UAE are. Yeah, it’s backloaded. It’s really backloaded. Obviously you got to be sharp for tom and stage 10 the massive central stage of course the but yeah for from 14 onwards I mean 14 15 then you got TT then Osio Mlette uphill sprint then alter stage 20 it’s really backloaded it’s really backloaded but it’s also like to me it’s backloaded in the sense that I think the last two weeks of 2025 were harder. They just reduced week one. It’s not that they made the last two weeks a lot harder. So 2025 we had yeah loads of puncher stages where in the end there weren’t actually big gaps except for the individual time trial and then yeah there weren’t gaps and then stage 12 yes 12 13 14 to was done. So it wasn’t that different. It’s just that it’s just a softer tour to France. It’s not a bad thing because I swear riders were saying that they were almost dead after the tour to France 2025 and how hard it was. So, it’s not terrible to have that. Maybe that opens up more tactical possibilities that more riders have something to do something on. But, um I can’t The feeling that this tour of to France root reaction creates to me is meh. It’s like it’s not it doesn’t shout, “Oh, we’re going to have the most epic to France in the world.” The terrain is there for riders to make it an enjoyable race, but they’re going to have to work for it. That’s how I look at this parkour. Like stage 10, for example, the terrain is there to attack with 35 km to go on the last two kilometers of Primari. Or they could play more passively and go on Perus. That’s also possible. the that stage could have been better like you say if it was the 2024 edition. That’s already a a point of view there. Next to that, the Tom 12 for me, I I don’t like the fact that it’s so short. I I like the idea of like stage 15, but it’s the kind of stage where it depends on the riders to make it work. It depends on the writers to to crash out on Lalev. Maybe Inos does it like they’ve done uh like they did this year at the Jirro a couple of times I think uh smashing a climb in the middle of the race hoping something would snap but like the Aldest stage stage 19 there’s not much else you can do outside of pacing towards Abdu what per kilo test on Ald so I I think the the las and the primari stage are the only two stages where I feel like there’s tactically much possible out of just have best legs pretty much. Yeah. And um I mean the lesser left stage 183ks it’s not that long but it is probably going to be harder than it looks especially if there’s a long break formation on that rolling terrain. There’s I’ve counted just now nine sprints or versatile sprint stages. I didn’t count stage two in that, but I did count some of the transition stages which a hungry versatile sprint team might want to control like Tre could be strong enough to do so with Verona. So there’s there’s a fair few sprints here. Um I don’t see much for Punch Earth, frankly. I I don’t see much two stages. So maybe there but there is the big carrot of taking yellow in stage two if you if you stay close enough in the team time trial which will be difficult though I mean he’ll be the best sure outside of maybe respect narias well he’s in his team and he’s he’s domestique but is not going to lead out nvas for station he’s out of contract He’s not getting No, I’m not having this [ __ ] He’s getting paid enough to ride in front of allowed to signifi as well as lead out on stage two. [ __ ] I don’t think Cosnif’s going to the store of France looking at the parkour cuz that’s a gun that can actually not climb. He He’s a classic puncher. Yeah. Um Yeah. But Nava also just came 13th in the tour of France. I mean, he’s not a classic puncher. True. He thinks he is cuz he skipped Rhonda for it. I’ve lost my train of thought. Uh, what’s your volume? Yeah, I’ll go Pog Vingard. And third, I don’t think only repeat lips. I don’t think it’s that good a parkour for lip of it. I don’t think do Toro will come third. I am going sex ass. Okay. Oh, that’s nice. That’s nice. Especially the pronunciation. I think it’s a pretty good brute for sex ass. I think Patcha wins the tour of France. I think there’s a world in which Lipovitz finishes second ahead of Vingo on the caveat that Yonas wins the Jurro. Oh, like Okay, see what you mean. I’m I’m not saying that Lipovitz is a better GC rider than Yonas. I’m saying that after winning the Jirro, he’s a bit tired. Danish people, don’t come to my house, please. Not sure it’s that good for lipst. Can lipst climb. He’s not one of your one and a half riders, so apparently not. Can climb, bro. Just top treat the tour of France. Yeah, I’m going with sex ass for third. I’m happy for you. I hope so. Yeah, that’d be that’d be sick. White jersey. White jersey third to the France go crazy. How do we really is Liver really a better climber than Sex ass? Yes. In the future? No. Well, this is in the future. They’re holding this next year. Oh, yeah. That’s true. It’s true. It is the future. But um are we underrating the possibility of Almeida potentially podiuming the Stud France? I don’t think he does it. I think he goes Jirro. I don’t think the shouts Almeida either. I think they send Almeida to the Jurro and Del Toro does the tour. I hope so. Jirro de Almea. Come on. Yeah, I think Vingo versus Remco at the Jurro be pretty sick actually. I’m ready. I’m so ready. Roglitch too. A pissed off Rogitch. Well, he he’d have to do myique form. Derek G is a privateeer. Derek G oni a privateeer. It’d be so good. No, no, no, no. All right. I’m hoping that is resolved and we can see Derek G because that Jirro if there’s too long time trials would fit him. I’m saying that Jurro would fit him. We don’t know the parkour. Yeah. If if so, I actually don’t I actually don’t mind the route mainly because really the riders make the route. I know that’s a cliche. The GC situation makes the route. There’s enough space to attack here. You know, if if Pagat is behind for whatever reason, he’ll go on stage 14. But yeah, I I don’t mind the route. I give it a five out of 10. I give it about a three. I think it’s You really don’t like it? I I’m not saying I don’t like it. I just think it could be a lot better. That’s my thought. What kind of clients do we have? Just up the right angle. Aldazone joining though. Yeah, I like that. I like that. Um, okay. I’m sorry. Aldoz have been twice in this race. Yeah, just like a little bump on stage 20. It’s a gimmick. It’s not actually twice. Yeah. Uh, okay. That’s our recap of or preview of the tour to France’s 2026 route that was revealed. We’ll I don’t I don’t know when the Jurro one’s coming out. The world one nor comes out in January. What about Chris Froom Patrick? Okay, let’s end it there. What about him? Yeah. What about him? Uh, who’s your The world changes faster than we think. The world is constantly moving under our feet. And you know, the more things you think are staying the same, the more they’re changing. So, Lipovitz third this year, things change fast in cycling. Never forget that. Exactly. That is exactly why. Yeah. I pick sex. No love for Oscar Ronley anymore is what you’re saying. I think it’s tough. I think it’s t cuz like it’s tough against not the right parkour. I think the parkour is fine. I think it’s actually good for a a climber who’s a bad time tri like him. I think so too. But I just Yeah, I think it’s a good parkour for only I just Yeah, it’s going to be tough. Um Vocal. Okay, thanks for all curtains. I think he can definitely top 10 this to the front again. Okay. I mean, who can top 10? Don’t look at me like I just said something really unreasonable. No, it’s not unreasonable, but he already did it. Well, I’m sorry, but where was Inos in the top 10 of the tour fronts this year? Yeah, Aaron won two stages. That’s better than top 10. Yeah, but it’s better to have two stages. Luke, is this a good win two stages? And uh is this a good route for Dutch riders? Who have they got? Olaf Koi. Oh, Olaf Koi is on decathlon. Oh no. [ __ ] Seas is going to get sold. They’re going to sell Seas. They’re going to have five sprint leadouts for Olaf [ __ ] and six with one helper in Cal Scottson. Calm Scottson, you got a long three weeks in July ahead of you, buddy. Only the only like all round climber that S has. When it comes to the tour to France from route reaction, do we do that in this podcast or do we do that separately? What’s your take? We’ll do it separately. We’ll do it separately. I got to go. I got to go. Um I’m hungry. You’re hungry. All right. Thanks for listening as always. We’ll see you with the women’s reaction uh in a couple of days.