Is Bulgaria Turning Towards Russia?

Bulgaria’s ties with Russia are once more under the spotlight since the start of the Ukraine war, raising questions about European unity and NATO solidarity. With Hungary and Slovakia already edging closer to Moscow, some fear Bulgaria could follow. Shared history, lingering pro-Russian sentiment, and growing dissatisfaction with EU integration are fuelling concerns about a potential shift in Sofia’s foreign policy. At the same time, the rise of the far-right Revival party, opposition to the euro, and nostalgia for the Soviet era add to speculation that Bulgaria could tilt away from Brussels and Washington. On the other hand, Bulgaria has also deepened cooperation with the West, providing military aid to Ukraine, expelling Russian diplomats, and moving to end reliance on Russian energy.

In this video, we analyse why Bulgaria’s ties to Russia are anything but straightforward, exploring the past, present, and future of Sofia-Moscow relations. Over the past 150 years, Russia has been seen by Bulgaria as both liberator and occupier, ally and adversary. Today, while President Rumen Radev and some political forces lean pro-Russian, public opinion is far more divided, with strong support for NATO and the EU among younger generations. What emerges, therefore, is a pendulum of Bulgarian foreign policy, shaped by history, energy politics, and domestic divides. Ultimately, the question remains: is Sofia really turning towards Moscow, or is this just another swing in a long cycle of shifting allegiances?

*VIDEO CHAPTERS*
00:00 Introduction and Titles
00:51 History in International Relations: Bulgaria and Russia
01:53 Bulgaria: Location and Population
02:29 The Emergence of Bulgaria
04:52 Bulgaria: The Cold War and Western Integration
06:29 Bulgaria, Russia, and the Ukraine War
07:21 The Rise of Pro-Russian Sentiment in Bulgaria
09:17 Is Bulgaria Turning Towards Russia?
11:47 The Cyclical Nature of Bulgaria-Russia Relations

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#Bulgaria #Russia #UkraineWar

Is Bulgaria turning towards Russia? Since the start of the Ukraine war, 
worries about the European Union have grown as Hungary and Slovakia 
have edged closer to Moscow. Now, some fear that Bulgaria could follow. A rising far-right public discontent 
over European integration and deep-rooted residual pro-Russian sentiment 
raised questions about whether Sofia might also break ranks with 
its EU partners and NATO allies. But while many may see this as a 
real risk, others are unconvinced. So what lies behind Bulgaria–Russia relations 
and is Sofia really edging closer to Moscow? Hello and welcome. I’m James Ker-Lindsay and 
here I take an informal look at international relations, conflict and security. History often plays a significant 
role in international relations. Past friendships and enmities can have profound 
impacts on the way that countries interact today. But while we often think of states as 
generally being either allies or opponents, in some cases, a rather more 
complex picture emerges. Countries can hover between the two positions, oscillating between times of close 
relations and periods of profound tension. The relationship between Bulgaria and 
Russia is a textbook case in point. Over the past 150 years, Moscow has been a 
liberator, ally, opponent, and even an overseer. But while Bulgaria moved inexorably towards 
the West since the end of the Cold War, joining NATO and the European Union, many 
Bulgarians still feel a pull towards Russia. This potent and often contradictory relationship 
has been brought to the fore by the Ukraine war. By way of context, the Republic of 
Bulgaria is in Southeast Europe, sitting on the eastern edge of the Balkans. It’s bordered by Romania to the north, 
Serbia and North Macedonia to the west, and Greece and Turkey to the south. To its east is the Black Sea. The population is currently around 6.4 million. But while most citizens are ethnic Bulgarians, 
speaking a Slavic language and practicing Orthodox Christianity, the country is 
also home to significant minorities. This includes a large Bulgarian, 
Turkish, Muslim community. Bulgaria has an exceptionally long history, 
having been part of the Roman Empire. During the Middle Ages, various 
Bulgarian states rose and fell until the late 14th century when the country 
was conquered by the Ottoman Empire. But while Bulgaria remained under 
Turkish rule for the next five centuries, by the 19th century things were changing. As nationalism grew in Europe, pressure 
grew for Bulgarian independence. And it’s here that Russia enters the story. Having emerged as a champion of the Orthodox 
Christian peoples of the Balkans, helping both Serbia and Greece emerge as independent 
states, Russia’s attention turned to Bulgaria. Having won a victory against 
the Ottoman Empire in 1878, Russia now forced Istanbul to give up Bulgaria. But while the Treaty of San Stefano 
initially envisaged a large Bulgaria, this was later cut back. Instead, the new principality was smaller 
than many hoped, leaving many Bulgarians outside its borders, a grievance that would 
drive Sofia’s policy for decades afterwards. But while it may have seemed as 
though relations with Imperial Russia would be exceptionally 
strong, tensions soon emerged. Bulgaria’s regional ambitions coupled with great 
power rivalries put it at odds with its liberator. Having lost territory to its 
neighbors during the Balkan Wars. During the First World War, Bulgaria 
joined the Central Powers of Germany and Austria-Hungary against Serbia 
and the Entente, including Russia. However, the gamble failed. When the Central Powers, including Bulgaria, were 
defeated, the country’s losses were cemented. But despite this, Sofia kept 
pushing to revise the borders. As a result, when the Second World War began, it 
allied with Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. But once Berlin and Moscow turned 
on each other, Bulgaria was trapped. In September 1944, the Red 
Army entered the country. And as the monarchy fell, Bulgaria along with most of Eastern Europe became part of the 
new Soviet sphere during the Cold War, thus signaling the start of four decades of 
Russian-led communist control over the country. Although Bulgaria had been invaded and occupied by Soviet forces, it would go on to forge 
exceptionally close ties with the USSR. In fact, its relationship was far closer than any 
of the other satellite states of the Warsaw Pact. Lining up behind Moscow under Todor 
Zhivkov, Bulgaria’s long-standing dictator, Sofia even floated the idea of becoming the 
USSR’s 16th republic in the early 1960s. But while this eventually came to nothing, the two countries nevertheless 
retained extremely close relations. As well as defense and intelligence links. There were also powerful cultural ties as Russian even became a mandatory 
subject in the country’s schools. But all this would change with the end of the 
Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union. But while Sofia and Moscow appeared to 
want to retain good relations and even signed a friendship treaty and Bulgaria 
remained dependent on Russian energy, the country’s strategic drift 
was now steadily westward. In 2004, it joined NATO and 3 years later in 
January 2007, it joined the European Union. But while many Bulgarians continued to hold 
pro-Russian views, over the years that followed, many of the remaining political and 
economic links were finally cut. For example, in 2014, and much to Moscow’s anger, 
plans for a major new international pipeline that would cross Bulgaria into the Balkans collapsed 
amidst growing EU–Russia tensions over Ukraine. But the biggest shift came after Russia’s 
full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. At first, Sofia was hesitant about 
taking a strong line against Russia. While it supported Ukraine 
with Soviet standard munitions, it didn’t condemn Moscow as 
openly as many other EU states. However, this all changed 
following a series of spy scandals. In June 2022, Sofia expelled 70 Russian 
diplomats and the following year it expelled the head of the Russian Orthodox Church in 
Sofia for advancing Russian state interests. From there, Bulgaria became steadily 
more pro-Ukrainian and anti-Russian. In December 2023, the parliament 
approved more military aid to Kiev, and in March 2024, Bulgaria ended 
processing Russian crude oil. While all this would seem to show that 
Bulgaria is now firmly aligned with the West, the picture isn’t quite as 
straightforward as it may seem. There are in fact some deep 
and important cracks emerging. For a start, the country’s president 
Rumen Radev has questioned arming Ukraine and even boycotted the 2024 
NATO summit over policy disagreements. Likewise, other significant 
voices lean towards Moscow. In January 2025, a new government took office with 
support from the Bulgarian Socialist Party, which has traditionally taken a pro-Russian position and 
has often also opposed sending weapons to Ukraine. Meanwhile, at a popular level, pro-Russian 
sentiment has continued in certain quarters. As EU integration has failed to deliver 
the economic development that many hoped, many older Bulgarians look back 
to the Soviet era with nostalgia. But even amongst the young and 
middle-aged, there’s been a push back. And it’s against this backdrop that a new 
far-right party has increasingly come to the fore. Revival or Vazrazhdane has surged 
on an anti-western platform. In addition to opposing NATO and military 
aid to Ukraine, it also stands against Bulgaria’s forthcoming membership of 
the euro, the European single currency. In February 2025, thousands rallied in Sofia, chanting slogans against EU colonialism 
and the erosion of sovereignty. Then in April 2025, it even signed a 
cooperation agreement with United Russia, the ruling political movement 
in the Russian Federation. I hope you’re finding this useful. If so, please do consider giving it a like and perhaps subscribing to the 
channel if you haven’t already. It all really helps. Thanks so much. And now back to the video. Seen from outside, all this suggests that Bulgaria may yet tilt back towards 
Russia like Hungary and Slovakia. But is this really the case? In one sense, it’s an understandable view. Aside from the pro-Russian political voices, opinion polls have shown skepticism 
about EU funding for arms to Ukraine. Meanwhile, public opposition to the euro, 
which many feel will fuel inflation and fatigue with the Ukraine war provide 
fertile ground for those who oppose the EU and the United States and would like 
to cast Russia as a traditional friend. Add to this the efforts by Moscow 
to push disinformation and the fact that Russian gas still transits 
the country and it becomes clear why there are fears that Russia still 
retains a foothold in the country and that this in turn may see Bulgaria 
tilt back towards Moscow at some point. But balanced against all this, there’s also a strong argument that Bulgaria 
isn’t in fact drifting back towards Russia. Despite the position of the president and 
some political parties, the parliament has approved military aid for Ukraine and has 
also aligned with EU sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, the government has not only ended 
the processing of Russian crude oil, but also squeezed Russian energy firms to the point where 
the biggest is preparing to leave Bulgaria. More generally, the country has 
clearly moved against Russian threats and has steadily increased 
its support to neighboring Ukraine. More to the point, NATO and EU membership continue 
to be at the heart of the country’s orientation. Sofia clearly wants to be aligned with the 
vast majority of its partners in both bodies. Even at the popular level, there’s little sign 
that there’s a widespread shift towards Moscow. While the far-right’s protests are undoubtedly 
loud, opinion polls show a far more mixed picture. While many Bulgarians oppose EU funding for 
arms to Ukraine and worry about the euro, support for NATO and the European 
Union has in fact increased. This is especially marked 
amongst younger urban voters. While the older generation may still 
harbor a nostalgia for the Soviet Union, especially after the country’s difficult 
transition following the end of the Cold War, and the middle-aged also have 
their doubts about the EU. The next generation appears to 
have a very different outlook. So, what does all this really mean? Put in a broader historical perspective, 
one could argue that Bulgarian and Russian relations have in fact been a pendulum, 
swinging from one side to another. While Russia liberated Bulgaria from Ottoman rule, the two countries were enemies 
in the First World War. Then having been invaded by the 
USSR during the Second World War, Bulgaria became a loyal Soviet ally 
until it threw itself firmly into the Western camp at the end of the Cold War 
by joining the European Union and NATO. In this sense, there’s been a fascinating 
cyclical nature to Bulgarian–Russian relations. But while this supports the argument 
that we might in fact be in the midst of another swing, this time back 
towards Moscow, we need to be cautious. Certainly, the battle over the country’s 
strategic orientation is more visible than in most EU countries, especially 
given Bulgaria’s historical ties to Russia, and Moscow clearly sees an 
opportunity to increase its influence. But there’s little sign to say that a 
full reorientation is on the horizon. While there’s certainly a pro-Russian voice in the country, it’s important not to 
overplay it, at least for now. But then again, given this complex history, 
there’s little room for complacency. While Bulgaria may at the moment seem firmly 
anchored in the West, EU and NATO policymakers would do well to keep a close eye on what’s 
happening in this Southeast European country. I hope you found that useful. If so, here are some more videos 
that you might find interesting. Thanks so much for watching 
and see you in the next.