The Tour de France Preview | Velo Podcast

The 2025 Tour de France is right around the corner, the largest race in cycling all year. Mike Levy, Andrew Hood, and Jim Cotton get together on the Velo Podcast to break down the key stages of the 112th Tour de France – including one with over 18,000 feet (5500 m) of climbing. They dig into the history of the stages relevant to this year, the key contenders and teams to know, and a whole lot more.

In addition to this Tour de France preview, stay tuned for a daily Tour de France stage recap podcast to come on the Velo Podcast feed, as well as our coverage of the latest and greatest around the Tour.

See the latest Tour de France news: https://velo.outsideonline.com/category/events/tour-de-france

[Music] hello everybody and welcome back to the Vello podcast my name is Mike Levy and today I’ve got UK editor Jim Cotton with me and European editor Andrew Hood aka Hoodie because on Saturday July 5th there’s a little race in France called the tour to France that starts and we are here to talk about it so on today’s pre-show we’re going to discuss and talk about some key stages we’re also going to talk about the route because as Hoodie pointed out to me a few days ago this year’s tour route is absolutely nasty hard one of these stages has 18,000 ft of climbing which is absolutely ridiculous and some of these stages there is some interesting history to these that is very relevant to this year’s tour so we’re going to talk about that and of course we’re going to talk about the contenders and maybe even more importantly we’re going to talk about the teams that they’re on because this race could be defined by the two super teams UAE and Jumbo Visma and their lieutenants imagine having a lieutenant that could probably win the whole race like and both teams have that kind of thing so we’re going to dig into that as well uh before we do I also want to tell everybody we’re going to be doing a daily tour to France podcast i don’t know if Jim or Hoodie know this this might be news to them but every single day I’m going to be doing a 10 to 30 minute recap we’re going to talk about what happened on the stage i’m going to talk to a fellow editor maybe on site at the tour to France maybe we’ll see how that goes who’s going to break down the stage for me and answer all my dumb questions about what happened that day so stay tuned for our daily tour stage recaps but today guys Andrew let’s start with you how are you doing today feeling good you know it’s the pre-our buzz starting to kick in a little bit you know the come you know hits kind of you get real busy the classics the Jirro you know the doofen the touris it’s all kind of a blur got this like week or two now where you kind of just uh turn the switch on for the tour and this is like you know big time it’s time to get time to buckle down and uh and get get busy yeah exactly this is my first year working with you guys and covering the tour via the podcast but I have to say I’ve I’ve uh been paying attention to the buildup to this the the doofan and the jurro and all these things and it it has felt like an avalanche coming behind us you know slowly bearing down on us so much content and coverage and racing jim how’s the avalanche been for you it’s It definitely is gathering momentum i can feel it sort of like I can hear it like boiling up behind me um yeah the doofan was a big exciting week with you know all the main tour to France guys kind of facing off there and now we’re we’re busy hoodie and I and all the team uh prepping all the kind of exciting features and special kind of insights we’re going to roll out through the tour so I feel like my nerves are probably higher than you know those of Vinko and and Evanool right now i just just waiting for the carnage to start
yeah so much content on the way it’s a content avalanche everybody hoodie you’ve been in this game for a while so this year we sort of expect we you know I hope I’m wrong but we sort of expect one of two guys to win from one of two teams which you know isn’t going to be a surprise if that happens so in light of that I wanted to ask you all the years that you’ve been covering this thing what is the biggest tour to France surprise that you’ve experienced the biggest I’ve ever experienced man there’s there’s many there uh you know you can go back uh you know it’s interesting in the tour in the history of the tour you kind of get these uh dynasties that build out over the years you get you know one big rider dominates for a good part of a decade and that hap you know it kind of happens in a regular kind of a cadence within the tour i think right now we’re kind of in this kind of a parenthesis a little bit with Pogachar and Vingo kind of being equal but over the years you know it was like uh just you know Hino then indignite and then you can count Armstrong you can count the team sky and it’s those those in between years that are the kind of the most interesting those years that maybe like a a guy like Cadell Evans can win or a Carlos Sastri you know um a surprise winner that no one really expected to to win and they maybe win just one time you know Venzo Nibili writers like that th those are always kind of the the tours that stand out for me because otherwise you know getting into a a one team one rider who just dominates the conversation and what’s unique about now is at least we have two riders that are kind of at the same level i mean we talk about the big four the Remco and Rogich are there as well so it’s kind of unique now that we actually have a lot of really good riders actually could win um but I think you know um you know typically there’s always been that kind of dominant team dominant riders so it’s those those shoulder years that that are the most interesting for me
i like that you said shoulder years cuz I was actually as you were telling me that I was thinking like the shoulder season you know like it’s hot all summer it’s really nice but it’s like man I’m I’m ready for a change and then you get those days in between where it’s like some it’s rainy it might be rainy it might be warm might be not those are the interesting days and it’s the same way with what you just said yeah for sure jim what about you you think back uh all these years what is the most interesting what is the most surprised you’ve ever been covering this crazy ass race
well I I’m only on a fraction of the number of tours uh of Hoodie but in terms of actually being on the ground every year I’m in France I’m surprised by how bad they make coffee but at a more at a more uh granular level I was um I was covering the tour with a colleague from Vello who’s no longer with us but uh we were we were um we got caught in a massive traffic jam in a a tunnel that passes underneath the Alps from Italy into France and it was the day uh in 2023 when Pogchar kind of cracked completely on the Granon and we were stuck in this tunnel for about an hour without any signal and um when we came out and we checked all the updates on the race like everything had exploded you know like Pogar was like a minute back Wanar was like up the road and like the whole race had completely changed while we were out of signals so there was this like mad mad drive to get to the finish in time to uh to stitch together all the pieces and um that stage up to the colder ground on it of of Pogachar’s kind of career it’s one of the defining moments um that would always kind of be in his on his resume
yeah one he it’s almost like he ate one too few Mars bars that day eh
absolutely
yeah yeah i think part of that route we’re we’re going to get it to the route here in a few minutes but stage 18 Jim I think we’re going to be going up the same climb where Yonas put time on Pogy in 2023 i think that’s the day with 18,000 ft of climbing isn’t it
well it’s um the day you’re talking about is actually to the cold deer low which is where Pogar cracked the year after in 2023
oh [ __ ] okay
no no in 2023 sorry um the year I was talking about was 2022 but the year you’re talking about is um the cold low yeah and um there is that does reappear pocket Char’s Kryptonite reappears this year on stage 18 in a Yeah the 18,000 ft climbing kind of queen stage in the Alps so that’ll be one to watch definitely most most people I know don’t do 18,000 ft of climbing in a month of riding like depending on where you live like what the hell that’s insane
so let’s let’s just dig into the course first we’ll we’ll get the riders and the teams a little bit later uh Hoodie a few days ago I asked you what the biggest talking points besides Yonas versus Pogy and UAE versus Jumbo Visma and you said the course is bloody hard and jeez so the first two weeks mostly flat but fairly technical then they’re going to go into the Pyrenees so let’s start with those first two weeks uh hoodie we’re going to be in northern France flattish but it’s definitely going to be exciting and interesting it really will be um you know a lot of times when you first first see the the tour roll out you just kind of get a big picture view of the course it’s only really until you start to dig in and and study each stage that you realize how hard I think this tour to France really is um you know I remember last year when it first came out everyone thought “Wow this is like a a tour to France from 2002 where it’s just going to be 10 sprint stages and then we’ll get two or three big days in the Pyrenees in the Alps and then game over.” Uh but having uh had to write some stage previews the last couple of days uh really get a chance to dig into these uh to these profiles man it’s it’s it is hard the um you know there’s never a flat road in France i mean people talk about a flat stage but there’s never a flat road and there’s always going to be hills always elevation and then some of these stages are really packed in with quite a few of these hard punchy climbs that are featured up in you know Normandy Britanni the massive sim trout you know all this stuff comes packed in really before the first rest day uh the first 10 11 days of racing plus a big time trial in there um so I think there’s going to be a lot of as Jim said carnage you know we’re hoping that we can get through this first part of this section of this race without having someone of the big favorites just wipe out and crash that almost always happens in every tour uh fingers crossed that won’t happen this year because I think if a big rider like Vingo or Roadlitch or even Remco or god forbid even Pogata you know out of the picture before the race even hits the climbs that would be a big loss for the tour but there’s a lot of very hard and technical uh stages in this first part of the tour which is good because it’s going to actually ratchet up the nerves and give riders like uh Vanderpool who is everybody’s one of everybody’s favorite riders he’s been kind of blocked out of the tour the last couple years hasn’t really had the kind of terrain he needs to win a stage and there’s couple of days that are perfect for Vanderpool for Vanard to get out there maybe All Phipe some of these kind of classic type riders to get a chance to really win the stage plus a few sprints i mean I’m I’m still old school i still love a good bunch sprint and I think there’s about four four days in this first half five days maybe that are good for the sprints so there’s there’s going to be plenty going on in this first half of the tour
yeah yeah jim go ahead and I would add as well that those hilly stages like through Normandy and Britany which Hoody mentioned which are prime you know Wan territory you can’t really overlook the fact that GC races now are not GC races of like Chris Froom you know there’s there’s no ruling out that Pogar could attack for example on one of these if he sees an advantage that’s possible you know these guys are really aggressive now and if they see the chance to early gains there’s always the argument about getting the yellow jersey too early and things like this but I wouldn’t say that because they’re not mountains there’s not the potential for GC like attacking in these first 10 days
yeah I think I might be wrong here but it feels like we’re past the point where the prospective yellow jersey people are just trying to stay safe like they’re obviously just trying to stay safe as well you know it’s like classic after classic after classic before they even get to the mountain stages but like as we’ve seen recently in other stage races these overall GC riders it’s they’re ride they’re almost riding like they have something to prove before they even get to the mountain stages which makes it real exciting for sure as far as green jersey contenders goes obviously the first week and a half to two weeks is going to be a big part of that jim who do we see up there for green jersey um well there’s there’s a few kind of key names there’s Yasper Philipsson which is uh who’s Vanderpool’s teammate who won it a few years ago uh Little Trek taking um Jonathan Milan uh who’s like big Italian kind of old school powerhouse sprinter there was a bit of controversy cuz it meant Mads Pedison got left at home kind of in his in hisstead
what so there’s Philipsson um Milan and then also Remco’s teammate uh Tim Malia uh like a Belgian sprinter on Quickstep i think they’re the three big guys that we expect to kind of really hoover up most of those bunch sprints but um it’s it’ll be interesting because Malia for example he’s on a team where half if not more of the team will be climbers for Remco uh little track will be kind of more sprint focused and also coining could just be a bunch of like grizzled kind of Dutch and Belgian stage hunter kind of sprint guys who’ll just yeah it’ll just kind of bully everyone all all the way through the tour so I think there’s three different types of sprint teams um that should be kind of in for these big bunch sprints is it just me or is it a bit of a bummer to not see Mads out there he’s having a hell of a year in my mind like I obviously you know the batteries only last so long and he’s done well in other places but I would love to see him here yeah I agree he’s on recharge until Yeah he had a he had a spectacular spring season and the other writer to mention the green jersey is Benm Germe uh he won it last year uh he had the tour of his life last year uh he’s been kind of quiet this year he’s had a couple crashes and uh it’ll be interesting to see if he can really step back up to his level that he was last year but the green jersey fight’s always a good good uh kind of secondary narrative to the to the green to the yellow jersey you know it’s like the points jerseys it matters to those guys um you know while Venard I don’t think he’ll be really chasing it but who knows i mean the first part of this tour has a few stages that are good for Wout and if he’s going to be f I think Wout’s going to be back to the Wout of 2022 hopefully uh he had a great Jurro looks like his injuries are behind him so W could be a a sleeper for the green jersey as well if he had kissed a couple stage wins early on
i thought a good idea for a a t-shirt or a jersey would be everybody needs a wout you know everybody needs a WOW and we’re going to talk about the super teams and the effects that they’re going to have but like guys like guys like Wout like Yates like these guys could have a huge effect on the race so we’re we’re going to get to those in a minute i also agree with you i imagine W is purely going to be thinking about Yonas not a green jersey but who knows let’s dive into some individual stages because the first one that really gets my interest is stage five it’s an individual time trial i personally don’t think we’re going to see a lot of change here because it’s relatively short and flat at 33 km uh all these guys are going to be fast what do you guys see happening here um I guess in terms of if we’re just talking about the GC guys Remco apool is going to be the top favorite um in terms of time gaps a flat 33 kilometer time trial is what 45 minutes uh I guess so I think there could be there could be you know up to a minute if somebody has a really bad day but I think it won’t be decisive but like Hoodie wrote in his preview of this stage it it just sets the tone for what happens for the next kind of 15 days you know it’s it’ll put the first pecking order onto GC which decides you know who gets the best position in the team car convoy and things like this so it it’s an important stage that won’t you know decide who wins the race but it it’s it you don’t want to lose any a big amount of time here because you know you’re off the back within 45 minutes of racing otherwise a stage like that and maybe this is a stupid question but would any of the GC riders be not taking it easy but like we’re going to go into the pyodies you know after that if we have some crazy mountain days would any of the GC contenders be thinking like I’m just going to get through this at like 98% and kind of think about the days coming or are these guys just going balls out hoodie yeah I know tour to France time trial it is as you described full gas uh
yeah okay
you there’s no there’s no kind of game playing with the stakes being so high because if you go off your program in terms of how you plot out at this stage and how you plan on racing it and try to soft pedal you know you don’t want to take any risk i mean if it’s raining or it’s dangerous race conditions you’ll see guys you know go a little bit easier just because they don’t want to risk crashing you know there was some talk actually that that Pogata had some somehow maybe soft pedal during the Dolphin time trial and
that’s why I ask that’s exactly why I ask
yeah i mean that would be some you know high third you know high three highlevel chess match kind of psychology games going in Spikecraft going on there that’s the case uh that might have been true at the tour at the doofin excuse me because there was some talk that this bike setup wasn’t good and he just didn’t want to um go full gas and and plus there some conversation there that maybe when you do go full gas your rivals can see your maximum power numbers and they can plot off that a little bit um but this is really a stage that Remco needs to deliver uh cuz at at a shorter I think about half the distance of the time trial race in the doofen you know he took 2 seconds a kilometer out of Pogachar Remco so 2 seconds out of 33 that’s a full minute you know if Remco get a minute out of Pelatar on a on a kind of power time trial course like this is I mean that would be absolutely huge for him um I doubt that’s going to happen i think that um that the differences between the GC favorites will be relatively tight simply because I think the all will be very strong but Remco should have a slight advantage because he is considered the uh better time trialist but I mean when Pogatar Vingo are on they could easily turn the tables and take time off any three of those guys so I think this was a big day because oftentimes we see more time differences made in a time trial than we do on a 15 km HC summit finale sometimes
yeah that’s a that’s a really good point actually cuz we’re going to talk about Remco in a bit but you know he’s GC contenderish but I think for him to do that like I think he’s got to come into those mountain days with just like a casual 30 minute lead or something like that so he’ll he’ll want to be doing that in the TTS for sure um speaking of mountains stage 12 the Pyrenees up the Howam uh Yonas gapped Pogy here in 2022 um it feels like more than 2 years ago or 3 years ago I should say that that happened um it’s 13 1.5 km long so stage 12 this is probably the first day I think Jim that we’re going to see some real GC action maybe yeah it’s the first I think it’s the first proper high mountain um stage and there’s kind of it’s more about more than just a hotel cam because there’s a few clims before it which I think you find sometimes if you have a stage which is flat and then one mountain at the finish it’s not the the legs aren’t sort of beat up enough for in the summit finish to make make kind of a difference but when there’s a few little appetizers before and those cam is hard enough that it should really you know show who’s got the legs to wear yellow into Paris it’s always interesting to see the first big high mountain high mountain finish but um I think I would say that the the third there’s three stages in the Pyrenees i would say the third one which is like the kind of old school stage with like four big climbs i think that one might be the most important of the three in the Pyrenees at least but uh the Alpine stages of the kings of this year’s race yeah yeah uh stage 14 that’s the third big day in the Pyrenees that you’re talking about
and that’s when you’re thinking that this is going to all add up so you’re thinking stage 14 could be more decisive than 12 and 13 once things start adding up
possibly yeah purely because it’s the third day in the mountains and there’s I think there’s four kind of upper category climbs within about 100 kilometers of that 14th stage so it’s just a real just a real bruiser like it’s kind of an old school bruiser but condensed into a short to a short space of time um and Pyrenees can typically be very hot and the roads are kind of grippy and it’s it’s a bit it can be a bit more unpredictable than the Alps where it’s all about pure power and like the super team kind of collective might that um that Hoodie was talking about earlier
yeah yeah let’s go to stage 16 hoodie they go up this little known climb i’m not sure if you guys ever heard of it called Mount Ventu could you tell me about that i don’t know i’m not sure yeah the Jon Provence it’s uh it really is one of the legendary climbs of the tour um I don’t know if you all have ever been around there it’s a pretty spectacular part of France and the way that the Vontau is just set up you know it’s kind of really just all these flat kind of postcardlike uh villages and vineyards and these stony hot roads and it’s it’s just all those stereotypical images of what France is and you have this behemoth of this massive mountain just like a shark fin just uh towering above it and Malvontu kind of means the windy mountain I think in the old dialect and it’s just a legendary climb you know so much has happened on this climb i’m it’s great to see it back um of course I think this is the climb a few years ago where I think it was when Vizma really realized that Vingo had what it took to win i think it was what the 2021 tour that’s when uh Wow was over the top and I think Vingo was there and that’s when the light went off you know it’s like hey we’ve got a rider we can build a team around to win the tour to France and it’s just one of the great days in cycling you know everyone’s there they get up in the mountain I don’t know if you if you ever ridden it it’s it’s a brutal climb because unlike maybe the climbs in the Alps or the Pyrenees where you do have more switchbacks and there’s seemingly spaces for a little bit of recovery on the climb this thing just kind goes up side of the ridge line and it’s just unforgiving and you know of course it’s the climb that is so hard that it killed a man which was uh the British Tom Simpson writer back in the 60s um just an epic stage you know fantastic beyond words you know it’s always the theater of the tour comes together i’m looking forward to the stage because it’s in between the Pyrenees and the Alps typically a breakaway might try to challenge for it but you know it’s like the big the big names want to have their names on that winners list for these prestigious stages summit finales like this so it’s going to be a pogy show with Vingo hopefully slugging it out with them on the way on the way to the top jim I’m not going to hold you to it what is What is the finish of Mount Ventu like who’s who’s coming who’s coming in first who’s leading and by how much take a guess here i would say that Pogish is going to take about 20 seconds off complete guess complete guess
yeah yeah okay
off of Vingigo and I think that’s when Remco the cracks will start start appearing in in his kind of climbing prowess but as you say Mike he’ll already have 30 minutes by then from from his time traveling i So he should be
he’ll be able to just chill relax dudes he’ll be able to relax and recover because he has to because stage 18 am I I’m going to pronounce this wrong guys you correct me cole de la Lo is that right
co de la yeah
yeah okay i was close this day over 18,000 ft that’s over 5,500 meters of climbing which I think is the biggest tour stage in the history of the tour when it comes to climbing it’s also the climb that specific climb where Yonas won the 2023 tour um yeah guys this is going to be absolutely insane do you think this is going to be a decisive stage or by the time the riders get here is it going to be decided what do you think’s going to happen i think I think this stage will put the nail in the coffin for whoever is not going to win the tour right um I think uh going back to the pyation of that first mountain stage I think it’s always such a strong important message to send across the Pelaton it’s like the whoever wins that first summit finish you know the beat in their chest it’s like I’m the guy who’s going to win this tour to France this is my yellow jersey so I think whoever carries that momentum out of the Pyrenees if they can get through Von Two this will just be literally just kind of the coronation of of what has happened now if that changes then we’re in for a great tour and a great finale um but I think that uh I think this year I might I might be wrong on this but I think the cold it goes up from a different side of the cold de low no it comes up from the from the northern side from the alaport so I think it’s as steep and I think the approach is different because it comes up from the coral valley i’m not quite sure on that um but yeah it’s it’s a brutal absolutely brutal climb and I mean I’ve skied there before so skiing down it it’s like you know it’s like an advanced blue black run so riding your bike up it is pretty nasty that climb I’m not sure if it’s the side that Hoodie is referring to or that they’re racing but uh you know this this climb was was made out of a ski slope when it didn’t feature in the tour until like 2021 and that was basically because the the region of Corvel or whoever they they just tarmaced basically a black run and um so it’s just made this road this like strip of brand new tarmac which is like 25% plus for for kilometers and uh like it’s one of these ones where you know all the pelaton is like how dare they make this climb um and yeah literally is like a ski slope that’s that’s what I was going to ask you guys actually is have you heard any riders sort of being like what the heck like guys we don’t like you know we’re not robots we can’t get up here and and also like a climb like that if I was a green jersey contender I might be a little bummed to see something like that am I out to lunch yeah absolutely the these these heavy sprinters will just look at stage 18 and just just be Yeah they won’t be sleeping much the night before they’re going to have to you know call on every one of their domestics to shepherd them in and there’s every tour there’s always this at least one story of you know this heroic fight against the broom wagon like a few years ago it was Caendish who came in in the green jersey with four or five of his Quickstep guys like pulling him or Astana guys apologies and there’ll definitely be one there’ll be the the race against the time clock uh on stage 18 for sure 18,000 ft everybody just another day at the tour no big deal those uh those time cut stories make the day longer for when you’re on the ground because uh you know the time cuts a percentage of the winner’s time so sometimes in these long five six hour stages the time cut might be 30 minutes 45 minutes you know you’ll be at the finish line all the riders will come across everyone will be already in the showers and in the bus and taking off and then everyone’s like looking at their watch waiting for Cavendish or whoever it is to climb up the mountain and the race against the uh against the time cut so there usually some pretty good drama there sometimes
so hold on here i just want to I want to grab on to something you just said there
the time cut behind the finishers it’s a percentage it could be 30 40 minutes so even the slowest climbing sprinters are coming in at the end of this day you know only 30 to 40 minutes back which I think is remarkable because when I do a bike race if it’s a long bike race like oftent times I’m getting beat by many hours so for these guys to come in even that close I didn’t realize the time cut was that like relatively short to be honest cool tour to France sprinters uh will beat any you know amateur in a a mountain race you know in a local in a local mountain race by by yeah kilometers it’s it’s amazing how how high the level actually the difference in level between you know weekend warriors like us and even like a slow climbing sprinter is it’s it’s just unfathomable if you see them on the road even like the Grapettos they’re they’re moving so fast it’s it’s like Yeah it’s hard to get wrap your head around it yeah exactly like national champion domestique water bottle getters you know i don’t think some some people that aren’t really in it don’t realize how fast the slowest guys are yeah hey let’s let’s talk about the riders and obviously the big question here is Pogy verse Yonas that’s like the main story and I just want to start this discussion off by asking you one question that I’m absolutely going to hold you to and we’re going to revisit when the tour is over hoodie if you had to bet your thumbs if you win you get to keep your thumbs and if you lose both thumbs are gone pogy or Yonas uh if it was my thumbs I I you got to go with Pogy i mean come on i like I like my thumbs
yeah fair enough jim you want to keep your thumbs who you choosing uh I’m just going to say Yonas just to be different
okay
who needs thumbs i’ve got my fingers i can type
right
you can do those tour updates still you can peck like a bird
i’ll just be 20% slower now i’ve got two less fingers
it’s hard It’s hard to hold a beer without a thumb though
yeah I’ll find a way one of those beer hats hoodie would you view it as an upset if Yonas beat Pogy an upset no not at all i mean he is the only rider really at that level i think uh even when you see what happened to the Dofan I mean I think that last day at the Dofan
Pogatar had another big attack in him he just didn’t do it out of out of respect for his rivals or just didn’t need to do it so why do it kind of thing in the tour he won’t be holding back um but if if Vingugo wins it would be a remarkable victory because I think when you look at the two editions that he did win um you know 2022 you know the tactics you know they really played the tactical card you know tremendously on that stage that Jim was talking about and then the next year um Vingigo you know Pogatar came in a little undercooked uh because he had that wrist injury at the leazes disrupted his preparation wasn’t really at 100% and Vingo was at 100% and then you know last year Pogar unstoppable but really Vingo was well off his best so I’m hoping that Vingigo does come into the tour this year at his absolute best cuz I think he will need to be at that level to have any hope at all of beating Vingo uh beating Pub excuse me um so is it an upset if he beats him no absolutely not i think he’s the only guy who can do it
yeah yeah
I I would agree i would also say uh for Vingo last year don’t forget in April he he completely smashed his whole body up in the bass country and he came came back and you know he was definitively beaten but he still was kind of within range i think the thing the only thing that plays perhaps in Bingo’s favor is while both UAE Emirates which is Poker’s team and Visma Lisa bike while they’re both amazing I think there’s I think there’s something about Vizma bike the kind of the tactical now the the weight of their the the power of their domestics they’ve got Jirro uh champion uh Simon Yates Matteo Jorgensson Septus there’s there’s something about that team which is a bit more sort feels a bit more controlled and a bit more like they’ve got their got their [ __ ] together whereas I feel like there’s always a little element of sort of sort of element of chaos at UAE Emirates which which could you know could work against Pogar yeah the two protagonists here have have very very different runups and they both approach this very very differently too you got Pogachar who has had a season for the ages but he also has how many days of racing in his legs now and then you have had Yonas who has obviously been out with injury and things have happened even if Yonas hadn’t been out with injury he’s got a lot fewer days of racing in him if you had to ask me right now Mike do you want to keep your thumbs i would say Pokear i want to keep my thumbs but I mean this guy has proved me wrong cuz I’ve said this before but I have to also wonder like you can only be so good for so many days of the year that’s just like like biology you know and I know these guys have all the help in the world but at the same time I have to wonder like how long can Pogy do this you know it’s a big old day it’s a big old day and it’s a big old month so yeah I don’t know if he’s I think he’s he’s definitely my favorite but if he doesn’t win in my mind it’s like Yonas has had a rough runup to this but he could be fresher i don’t know if that’s a factor do I Are those stupid points hoodie i have no idea
no I mean there’s some there is some speculation that maybe Poachar looks so good he’s peaked early you know there’s some talk about that during the Dofphane that he looks so strong and you know you want to be strong and this week three of this year’s tour which is a month away from when they were battling at the at the doofen um but yeah that was an interesting point about race days i actually just did a quick check on the stats there about how many race days each of those guys have um and it’s only three more race days for Pogachar than uh Venus
really
yeah because
Oh well there you go as much as I was yeah I was a good point though um because with as many seemingly as many race days as Pogba has been going at it it obviously been doing a lot of one-day racing um which is different than doing stage racing obviously just in terms of stage count um but I think you know Pogatar um you know his ability to recover and the way I think he can be aggressive to take kind of these smaller gains that just add up over the course of a week you know he can get a time bonus he can you know win those kind of uphill he can even like Jim said could easily go on an attack on one of these uphill fin the mi not the mir the muran uh at the end of the first week you know he could attack and get 15 seconds plus a time bonus you know take a half minute in a kilometer on a relatively flat stage that has no real on paper GC implications um
so you know is Pog going to run out of gas i I don’t think so but that is certainly a talking point
that would be a good storyline boys
i would say the biggest surprise just to kind of move on the narrative a little bit the it would be a huge surprise if one of those two doesn’t win if somebody other than Wingigo or Pogchar wins i.e remco Ragglitch or you know even somebody like I don’t know Florian Lipovich on Red Bull or like Rodriguez Inos if one of these guys wins it would be a huge kind of not an upset but a huge surprise that I don’t think anybody is predicting even even I don’t think few people are even predicting Remco not even not even the Belgian press I don’t think uh would put too much would put their thumbs on Remco yeah yeah
belgo guess they’ll bet on Wart winning i think a few months ago I might have said hey you know maybe three maybe even four guys could have a chance of winning this thing you know and then some things happened and and stuff happened the Dofphane and the Jurro and I feel like we’re we’re back to another two-way battle i don’t feel like I’m underestimating the other people like let’s talk about Remco let’s talk about Roglish for a minute man I know Roglish has won some things i know he’s won some things but like is there a rider with worst l worse luck than him and you make your own luck and all those things but like we need like a a tone when we put when we talk about Rogue Lich we need like aw kind of tone because something always happens right he he’s definitely he’s definitely been the master of uh you know pulling defeat out of the jaws of victory that’s for sure uh you know a lot of it is just bad luck though i mean crashes could do to happen i mean when they start happening to the same rider many times you start to question maybe there’s something more to it than that um I really hope that Roguez has the luck on his side this year and it can at least get into uh into the second and third week you know after what happened at the Jirro you know because the the Red Bull you know that company that team you know they want to be at that level of Pagachar and Vingo and you know they bet the house on Rogich is kind of this transition GC rider um and they made the decision to take him to the Jurro which is quite controversial so everyone just thought you know why why send it to the Jurro you’re risking losing you know any sort of freshness or an injury that’s going to impact your tour um the team thought that that was the best way for Rogitz to get ready and maybe maybe it might turn out to be because he he left the jury earlier didn’t have to fight through the final week he wasn’t seriously seriously injured it sound like he was uh got some sort of infection but he’s been able to train no one’s really talking about him as a frontline favorite and that might help Rogich because you know writers react differently to the pressure and it seems like Rogich you know what happened to him in 2020 on that final time trial when he lost to Pogar that’s always just got to be at the back of his mind because everyone thought that he had that tour won and that was one of the biggest surprises I’ve ever seen covering the tour so you know I’ve heard stories of riders when they have a big loss like that in their career just kind of marks them and it’s like a it’s something just inside them they can’t overcome and I’d love to see Rogich have one last great tour i mean you know it’d be a fairy tale if he could actually win this thing i don’t see that happening but I agree with Jim that if Pogar or Vingo don’t do not win that would be the absolutely massive story yeah yeah I agree well hopefully he crashed uh he crashed 18 times in the Jurro so hopefully he’s got those all out of out of his system now and he can give give these other two guys a run for their money and we talked about Remco briefly uh we expect him to do some damage in the time trials but I think we’re both in agreement for the GC he’s probably a bit back behind the two main protagonists hey Jim yeah I would say he’s you know I’d be surprised if he is outside of the top five but he just and he can kind of hang with like Pugashar and Vingo on the climbs sometimes but he’s just not he’s not as convincing on these climbs or as like reliable in the climbs as the two big guys and I think the main disadvantage Remco’s got perhaps is his team as well cuz you know quick step they lost Mikuel Lander at the Jirro who had a horrible crash he was put in a kind of a back brace and he he’s one of the best climbing domestics in the Pelaton and Remco’s lost him and Quickstep isn’t a super team like UAE or Vizma or even Red Bull and they just they don’t have the kind of depth of support crew who you’re going to see all kind of clustered around with Cen Yates in these high mountain finishes and Remco is going to have to race kind of on his own quite a lot I think and when the tour gets you know deep into these 35 40°ree kind of high mountain stages in the Alps and things and it’s stage 18 I just think he’s going to be under under a lot of pressure to do a lot on his own um I would say that Remco you know he’s the guy that could win the tour but not yet and not when Vingigo and Pogar are on you know even 98% of top yeah yeah okay let’s talk about one of Pogar’s lieutenants imagine having a helper who you could say just won the tour to Swiss like that’s your helper so Almeida Jal Almeida he’s probably you know he’s not here for GC but this is a guy who could make a huge difference on a big old climb for the GC in the same way that Simon Yates can imagine having your helper be the person who literally just won the JRO and he’s here to help you win the tour so you’ve got Almeida and you’ve got Yates these two guys who do you think is going to make the biggest impact either for themselves but also for their captains i think that’s obviously a big factor we’ll have to see
we’ll have to see with the Mida he’s kind of um you know when you when you saw him winning at the Tour to Swiss you know this year’s tour to Swiss featured a lot of these like kind of very short steep kind of explosive climbs and that’s where he kind of does well he’s still a little bit unproven on the long HC climbs he’s struggled in those in the past a little bit so I’m kind of curious to see how he’s going to be able to do you know even without the pressure of having to try to win the tour but just to kind of be there for Pogachar every day every day you know because you’ll have guys that who’ve proven they can do that like Civikov uh and Adam Yates um but Almeida certainly a huge weapon yeah I think they might use him in a different way kind of for some of these punchier kind of climbs even even maybe in the first week and throughout the Pyrenees and then kind of yeah we’ll just see have to see how his legs are holding up but I think in the long these long HC climbs you’re going to have uh the Civicovs and the Yates kind of being there for Pogatar uh and then for with um with Vizma you know you do have Simon Yates who is an old school just you know he can just last right that’s that’s how he won the Jurro was the fact that he still had legs on that last big hard stage stage 20 so he I think would be a more valuable helper over the course of three weeks than say Almeida would be
okay yeah i’m going to say a name now that I don’t think is a to be honest I don’t think is a GC contender but I think in everybody’s hearts they would absolutely love it jim how do we feel about Richard Kerrapaz’s chances well I think like you say he’s he’s definitely not going to win the tour in France i mean after after the Jirro ditalia it would be awesome to see him up there again because he’s one of these riders who will attack who is exciting and you know he’s going to do something interesting but on the flip side I think he has said he’s not targeting the GC I think all of EF Education Easy Post is out for stages and Carropaz is one of these guys who you know he’s won I think he’s won three stages of of a grand one grand tour before i think it was the tour to France a few years ago i wouldn’t be surprised to see him winning a couple of stages hunting for the the polka dot jersey uh but he’s he’s not going to feature in in the GC and I would say if he was to try he he’s he would get gobbled by Pogashar I think on a on like the Grandon or something like that
my heart wants it though my heart wants it Jim you know that would be I I would shed a single tear of joy for that that would be a hell of a story speaking of EF and speaking of stage wins uh just quickly before we move on getting close to wrapping this up Ben Healey and Neielson Powell healey has got to be uh one of my favorite riders this year he is talk about an agitator i am a fan of someone who is always just poking things just trying to make things happen and trying to start things uh so I’m I’m excited for him to do some stuff and if we’re talking about guys like that agitators people who are going to mix things up and make it exciting hoodie who else is on your list yeah I think EF was always bringing a team that’s going to be aggressive like that i think you already mentioned uh Neielson Pace i think he’s kind of overdue for a stage win he’s already had a couple of big wins this this spring in the runup to the tour h some health problems last year wasn’t quite at 100% during the tour excuse me and um so I’d love to see Neielson get out there getting some breaks and and chase a win um you know I think that that Red Bull is going to really want to try to win a stage this year um you know they might even especially if if Rogue kind of flames out they might just pivot to stage hunting mode quite early because that would be big for their organization and it’s big for any team to actually come away with with the with the tour stage win uh I think you’re going to see Tutor out there i think with Alfa Phippe and Hershey and some of the other guys they have there you know really trying to win a stage you know you have maybe a guy like Ben O’ Conor who actually wasn’t really that impressive to me at the Tour to Swiss i mean some of those climbs weren’t really suited his style of racing but for a team like those guys that are like you know anyone’s not in the top five it almost doesn’t really matter if you’re sixth eighth or 13th way more important for the team and the franchise to get a stage win so once you get out of those top couple of teams couple of GC guys it’s like almost any of those big guys that got up as Ben Oconor Oscar only any of these guys if they could get a stage win that would just be absolutely huge for them and huge for the teams
the pro the problem is the problem is it’s pretty hard to win in the breakaway these days um because with if especially the GC is not really wrapped up the GC guys will still be racing to get the time to make the differences um as well as I mean last year how many I think there was at least two breakaways I could think of that Pogatar just
hoovered up because he was just so strong and he was not going to not go for the stage win i think Jorgensson got caught that one day and there was another day I think where you know other circumstances the break might have gone away but the way Pagache races he races to win every day and and fair enough man it’s like the tour to France you’re not going to just give away a stage win
yeah yeah exactly uh you said a name there that made me smile Flee he’s been he’s been nice and aggressive this year as well too so it would be cool to see him uh win a stage although I think that might be a stretch but man that would be Right yes okay guys i’m going to let you guys go i know you guys are over in Europe so uh it is the end of your day it is the start of my day uh I’m going to go do some Tour to France homework everybody that’s listening make sure to stay tuned for our daily daily tour to France podcast with me and whichever editor from Vello I managed to rope into this from the tour we’re going to recap the stages and uh explain everything so that’ll be good and also stay tuned for our Tour to France Fam’s pre-show which we will be airing before that race starts as well all right everybody we’re excited for the tour to France stay tuned we will see you guys there see you [Music] [Music]