Can Pogačar Lose? | The Big GCN Tour de France Preview Show!

The Tour de France is just around the corner! The biggest bike race in the world starts this Saturday, July 5. 🙌 Join Dan and Si as they preview every single one of the 21 stages, covering the route, the key riders to watch, and their predictions! 🚴‍♂️🇫🇷

⏱️ Timestamps: ⏱️
0:00 Welcome to the TDF Preview show!
00:30 Montage of Last Year’s Tour de France (2024)
01:32 The Route and Stage-by-Stage Breakdown
20:11 Check out our French Racing Collection! 🔥
20:51 GC Contenders
30:41 Sprinters
35:43 Tour de France 2025 Stats
36:14 Predictions

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The biggest bike race in the world starts this coming Saturday the 5th of July. Pagatcha versus Vinegore versus Avental. Milan versus Malia versus Philipsson. Vanderpool versus Vanart. It promises to be a tour of France for the ages.
I would agree with that. So coming up, a look at every single one of the 21 stages plus all the main riders and the team supporting them. But first, this is what happened last year. [Music] [Music] Tad a Pagache taking his third win at the race off the back of two editions where he played second fiddle to Vinegore and Vizma with Remco Ednipool on the third step of the podium and the best young rider. Let’s not forget those three are all back racing again this year and this will be their biggest goal of the season. All right, let’s get on with the route, shall we? Overall, this 112th edition of the race is 3,339 km and all within the confines of France. Yeah, there are two individual time trials totaling 44 km, seven flat stages, six hilly stages and then six stages in the high mountains. Five of those are summit finishes. Ozakaman, Lucon, Super Banyanet, Monontto, Korchavevel, Cold Lao, which is the highest point of the race actually at 2,34 m. And then finally, La Plain Tarantes. Yeah, we don’t have any gravel and we don’t have any cobbles, but there are some really tricky stages particularly in the first week that are a lot harder than they look on the profiles. So, we better get on to the stages in detail. I guess the Grand Depar this year is in Leil, Northern France, which is quite close to Rube and of course with the border of Belgium as well. It’s the third time that Le has hosted the start of the race. The last one though was 31 years ago. Stage one starts and finishes there. And it looks almost certain that it’ll be a sprinter who takes the first yellow jersey as leader of the race. 185ks with 1,150 m of climbing. It’s pretty flat. Although there are three fourth category climbs, which will decide the first wearer of the polka dot jersey. Now, as ever, this first stage is going to be incredibly nervous. Everyone’s fresh, everyone’s up for it, and everybody wants to be near the front. And of course, there’s a lot at stake on the finish line. There are quite a few straight, very open roads on route. There might be a chance of crosswind depending on the weather, but this is one for me where yes, I’m really looking forward to the expected sprint, but mainly I’m just keeping my fingers crossed and hoping everybody stays upright. Yes, there are quite a few stages in this first week where you’ll be hoping that I reckon. Stage two heads from Arat 50k south of Leil to a finish in Bunan Sur which is very close to Calala. So I’m sure a few of the UK based fans watching this will be making the trip over to watch. I expect so that’s actually the longest stage of this year’s race at 209 km. Pretty lumpy too. 2 half,000 m climbing in total with three short but very tough climbs in the final 30ks. 1.2k at 9.4%, 4%, a K at 9 1/2% and then 800 m at 8.8% and they all come in the space of 20 km and all on narrow roads from what I can see on Google Maps. So, it’s going to be very nervous indeed.
Yeah. I mean, you’re nervous about it. I can tell. Yeah. It sounds like one that Matthew Vanderpool may have marked down in his book. Definitely. Yes. And we know Pagata also loves those kind of stages as well. Although he does also seem to like most stages.
Well, true. There aren’t many that he doesn’t like, are there? But I don’t think he’ll be able to help himself when he gets to those climbs at the end of stage two. Even if he doesn’t make the first attack, he’ll definitely go and if Vulnerable goes or probably if anybody else attacks.
Yeah. Which then means that every other GC rider also needs to be up there and vigilant as well, plus all of their teams,
which is where they won’t all fit, of course, which is where the chaos begins. So, you’re right. I am particularly nervous about these first few stages.
Yeah. Okay. Well, let’s move on to stage three, shall we then? Uh, 178 km from Valencien to Dunkirk on the northern tip of France. I’m not saying that you don’t need to be nervous about this one, Dan. But it is plan planned planned flat. They ascend Mont Castell, which is regularly used in the four days of Dunkerk with 30k to go, but I it’s too far out, isn’t it, really to have much of a bearing?
I thought so. Yeah, I’d agree with that. Uh at the end there’s a sweeping right hand with just over a decade to go and then some long gradual turns between there and the finish. But as sprints go does look fairly straightforward. Stage four starts in Amier Metropo and skirts down. Do you like that?
Yeah. Great.
Skirts down to Rua home to the late very great Jacil is another lumpy one shorter than the second stage at 174ks but with a similar amount of climbing per kilometer. And again with most of that climbing concentrated in the final 50k where all five of the KM located. So it’s going to be a tough one. I’ve actually spoken about this day to a couple of DS’s that are going to be there at the tour to France and they both said that this one has the potential to be absolute carnage and mayhem. Well, I mean we were looking on viewer. There are all sorts of red flags in that last. So the 30k leading into the final circuit are twisty, very narrow in places with a fair bit of road furniture and central dividers I don’t think will be removed ahead of that stage and then it’s just 3.7ks from the top of the final climb to the finish. Most of which is on descent. Yeah. Okay, let’s go through the climbs, shall we? 1.3k at 9.1%, 900 m at 7.2%, 1.8k at 5%, and then 800 m at 12%. All in the last 20ks. That’s like Amster Gold, right? Yeah, I think it’s going to split things up almost certainly. It’s an uphill drag to the finish line as well. So, the same sort of protagonist. Vanderpool, Vanard, Pagata, Apollo, etc. I would say Magnus C actually is my outsider for that stage.
Okay, moving on. Stage five is the first of the two individual time trials. 33 km starting and finishing in Kong with just over 200 m of climbing, most of which comes at the start. This is a real power course though. Not too technical, good roads. So he’s got a Nepal written all over it. After his time trial at the Dolphin, I can’t see anybody beating him in that stage. Not even Gner.
Wow. I guess a lot of lies will be on Pagatcha for that one as well. Um for whatever reason, he lost way more time than you would expect from him in the Doofan time trial, even with a decent climb in it. So this one is going to tell us if he’s been able to rectify whatever went wrong that day. Yeah, it will certainly be one of our first real glimpses, won’t it, of the true form of the GC favorites this year. We’re still very much in the north of France for stage six, which heads from Bay to V Normandy. Lovely good. It’s by far the hillst stage of the race up to that point with over 3,000 m of climbing over its 202 km. Yeah, it must be relentless all day that one cuz the highest point of the race that day is only 350 m above sea level and the lowest is 60. So it could depending on who is in the myojon be a good day for a breakaway success with 4ks to go that day. There’s a 1.2k climb which averages 7.2% and even have finished on a climb 700 m long in double digits.
Vanipool. Yeah. Yeah. Maybe Alison will try and control the race actually, but it is a big day to control especially if they don’t get any help. Uh, Pagatcha might fancy his chances there too as well, but again, not sure he’ll want to burn his team at that part of the race. He might have done so in the past, might he? But he is a little more selective with where and when his teammates use their energy these days.
A little a little bit.
Yeah. Right. Still in the north of France for stage seven, which are Bernardino’s home roads. These ones, the day finishes up one of the most iconic climbs in the race, the Mure de Britana. Now, a lot of you are going to remember this from 2021 where Vanderpool pulled off one of frankly his most incredible rides actually that we’ve ever witnessed. Yeah. Well, I think the most incredible rides of any rider ever in my mind that for those that need a reminder that didn’t watch it, he attacked the penultimate time at the Muran Bratannia. Murder Bratannia should I say, he took the bonus seconds at the top that time. Then he got caught, but he still had enough energy left to take the stage win. The bonus seconds that came with that. And then with all of that, the yellow jersey.
Yeah, it was proper goosebumps, wasn’t it? Um, this year they also do it twice in the final. In fact, the final 65K are a carbon copy from that 2021 route. The climb itself is 1.9K at 7%, which doesn’t sound too bad, but it is an anorobic effort which can and will catch some people out. Yeah, I was looking at Strava. Valve, I think, has got the best time on Straa at 3 minutes 45. That is a really hard effort. So the gaps won’t be big, but there might be gaps there. Right, stage eight. Brief bit of rest bite here. This is one of the flat stages and so it should be an almost guaranteed sprint. 171ks to Laval Espas Mayen.
Yeah, there is one categorized climb with 20k to go, but it’s tiny. That said, the last 1.3k or so to the finish does drag uphill. So it’s not going to be one of the super high speed sprints. Time and your effort here is going to be important.
Will be. Stage nine is another one for the sprinters which means that both stages on the second weekend are flat which I would say is a bit disappointing because obviously people have generally got a bit more time to watch on the TV but still 174ks from Shenon to Chataroo in the center of France which means this could be a very hot one. So expect the Malers Philipssons and Milans of this world to be battling it out for the wind air. Now, this is normally where the first rest day comes, but because it lands on the 14th of July, Bashil day, it’s not. And it means the riders have a full 10 days of racing without rest this year, which is hefty. Yeah, it’s quite a lot, isn’t it? Particularly as this is the first official mountain stage of the race. 165ks to Leondor Pedi, which is the only finish of the race that’s never been used as a finish at the Tour to France before.
Well, there you go. Uh whilst the description says it’s mountainous, there is nothing mega long on this stage is it? But it is absolutely relentless. There are eight categorized clims on the route in the massive center or massive sal I believe they say. Um and 4,000 m of climbing which over 165 km. It’s a hell of a lot. Yeah, it is. Again, this could well be a hot one. And if it does kick off, and why wouldn’t it in this modern era of racing, it could expose the riders who aren’t on the form we expected of them. The climb to the finish is 3.3K at 8%, but it’s the fatigue and the energy expenditure before it that will make it feel so tough.
I’m really looking forward to that one. It’s just a shame that it’s not a bank holiday here in the UK that Monday.
Don’t try and pretend that you’re not going to be watching at work.
Well, I’ll be claiming it is my work side. We’ll be putting out that week’s racing news show after that stage is finished. So, I have to watch it. Yeah. All right. The rest day follows. Presumably, you’ll need that as well. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Okay. Claim that as work. Um, and then they do get to ease back into things gently on stage 11. 157 km starting and finishing in Tulus. 1,750 m of climbing, but it should still be a sprint. It won’t be the following day because stage 12 heads into the Pyrenees for the first mountaintop finish. 181 km flat for the first 2/3 but then we hit the big climbs. First up the coldest 11.8ks at 7.3%. Uh then the smaller colder board year and then finally camp 13.5ks at 7.8%. This was last used 3 years ago and it’s where Yonas Finugor sealed the deal on his first tour win. Pagata crashed on the descent before his remember and then lost over a minute to his rival on the final climb. I don’t think I’m going out on a limb here when I predict the outcome will look slightly different with that stage this year. Uh big stage though that one the first true mountain test and there’s another one the following day even though it’s only 11ks long.
Yeah, a mountain time trial. They’re around 3 km at the start that are flat and then it’s straight up the paragood 8 km 7.9% right on the cusp of where a road bike might well be faster than a full-on time travel bike. So equipment choice is going to be really interesting as will the result. Nothing quite like a mountain time chart to really lay bear who has it and who doesn’t. Rare as hens teeth these days. The last proper mountain time tri so rare as hens teeth these days. Well the last proper mountain t at the tour of France i.e. where they just go straight up a mountain rather than having anything really before it was 9 years ago in Majv and before that 2004. I actually don’t think that Pigatcha nor Vinegar have ever done a prolevel proper mountain time trial before. I might have got that wrong.
Well, I mean that is quite something. Are we not counting the one where Roglish lost the tour of France? No, cuz there was a lot before Launch to Belie.
Mhm. Okay, there we go. Um, now it’s going to be a shakeup on GC, isn’t it? That’s for sure. Um, on we go then, shall we? Stage 14 and more mountains. Four of them to be precise. Uh this is another really key stage for the general classifications. They start in Poe gradually rising in elevation until they get to the foot of the cold to Malay which they climb from the western side this time. That one’s 19 km long at 7.4%. Then it’s the cold daspan 5ks at 7.6%. Straight onto the parasaur 7.1 km at 7.8%. And then they finish at top Lucon super banet 12.4ks at 7.3%. That is a classic stage, isn’t it? Add it up, it’s 5,04 m of climbing according to Velvia, which is a huge day in the saddle, isn’t it? Although, we should say there is a bigger one in the final week, which we’ll be getting on to. So, Lucon Super hasn’t been used as a finish at the tour of France since 1989, which is over 35 years ago. Robert Miller won the stage that day, whilst Fino overtook Lemon by the smallest of margins on GC. So, it’s pretty cool that they’re finally going back there. Ben O Connor incidentally set the Strava Km here on a recent recon ride.
Yeah, there you go. It’s on a Saturday, this one, importantly, so more people will be able to watch that full stage, myself included, hopefully. Uh Sunday is a little less fearsome though, more of a transition stage as they head to Carcassant. It could be a sprint, but it looks more likely to be a stage fought out by a breakaway. Then we’re on to the second and final rest day and they’ll resume with stage 16 on Tuesday the 22nd of July. Now they sort of have a gentle reintroduction to racing because the first 140ks of that stage are flat but then
but then they go up Mon 2. Ah a climb that really needs no introduction does it? But I will introduce you to it anyway. Um it’s 15.7ks at 8.8%. So, it is savage, isn’t it? They did it twice in 2021, but it’s the first time that it’s been a summit finish since 2016. And even then, it didn’t go to the top because of high winds.
No, remember that one because that was where Froomy started jogging up, wasn’t it? I think it’s hard to forget that, isn’t it? Yeah. Easier to forget who won the stage that day. It
is. Yeah.
But Thomas Dent stepped forward. Um, so the last time actually they finished on top of Mmon 2 was all the way back in 2013. That was another one, wasn’t it? I think
it might well have been. I can’t think that far back. So, I am looking forward to that stage, I must admit. Stage 17 is another transitional stage. This time to Valance. And it looks like this one will be a sprint. Only 1650 m of climbing over 160ks. After that, it’s on to the final mountain stages. We are started with an absolute brute. The most climbing in a single stage of the tour to France for many years at 5,500 m. I could only find three other stages this century with more rare as hen’s teeth that now given that there are only three climbs that they’re tackling that day. You know they must all be hellish. So the first one is the cold of glandon 22ks at 5.1%. Then the Koda Madlin 19ks at 8% and then they got the Koda Lurs 26 km at 6 12%. That is where Pagatcha cracked good and proper in 2003, wasn’t it? Although they finished down the other side that year, the last time they used it as a summit finish was in 2020. And Roglitch looked like he’d sealed the deal on the general classification that day, didn’t he?
He did. Until the plunge to Belie time trial came the following day.
A mountain time trial. There was not a mountain in time travel.
No, not not quite. No. Anyway, this is a stage that could bring sprinters to tears and even some of the GC riders actually if they’re not on a good day. If it hasn’t already, the tour could be won and lost on that particular stage.
Yeah. If it isn’t, there is always the next day which has 4,000 m of climbing over just 30k
after the day before. That’s just awful.
Savage. The sprinters will go from tears to just wailing I suspect for that one. Uh it includes the all category cold print and another all category summit finish on the plan. Yeah. So last used in the tour to France 23 years ago although it did feature in the 2021 do
that was the year pad won a couple of stages wasn’t it?
It is indeed. Yeah including that one. Right. The climb itself is 19ks at 7.2% and you would imagine there are going to be a lot of riders on their knees at that point in the race.
Yeah. Stage 20 goes from Nonto Pontalier is rolling for almost all of the 184 km. So it looks perfect for a breakaway and with a 12k 4% climb near the start. The strongest riders might well be able to force clear that. Yeah, that’s the point of the race where people get really desperate, isn’t it? If they haven’t got much out of the tour to France up to that point. Mind you, there might be another opportunity this year on the final stage in Paris. It is back on the Shel, but with a key difference. Yeah, I cannot wait for this, Dan. They do six laps, but they swap between two different laps. So, the standard one around the center of Paris and then another that takes in the more ma climb that was used in last year’s Olympic road races. Quite the shakeup to that last stage, isn’t it? So, that climb that side just mentioned is 1.1 km at 5.9%. It’s not easy by any means, especially that deep into the race. is going to make it very hard for the sprinters teams to control if they even bother trying to control.
Well, they’ll at least try surely given that I mean they might as well because there’s nothing else to do the next day.
So, I’m all for this change. I mean, I might have changed my mind on the day itself, but I’ve got to the point where I’m finding a traditional Shanto stage a bit dull until the final circuit. This is certainly going to shake things up a bit.
Yeah. Well, the the scenes from the Olympics are etched into my brain. like that was amazing. What a fantastic spectacle last year. Uh right, let us know your thoughts. By the way, um is it a good move or should they stick with tradition? Get involved in the comment section down below. Okay, just before we The UCI allowed the organizers to invite an extra one. We will go in order of the bookies favorite. So it should come as no surprise to you that we start with Tad Pagatcha who is the overwhelming favorite. Yeah. I mean the best odds you can get for him as we record this are 1.45 which means if you put a 10 on him and then he wins you’ll make a profit of £450. which is a ridiculously low odds, especially in a sport where anything can happen. But then again, Pagata has never ever pulled out of a UCI ranked stage race. He’s he’s pretty indestructible. That is the king of kiss of death, isn’t it? Frankly. All right. Fingers crossed though cuz I mean it’s a crazy statistic, isn’t it? Absolutely crazy. How many days of stage racing has he done and not pulled out of? Well, I looked at my spreadsheet earlier s it’s up to 339 now from his time as a junior right through to this present moment without a single DNF in stage raising. You’d think that’s almost unprecedented. You would have thought so.
I mean, no one is going to be bothered to go and make spreadsheets for everyone like you have.
Maybe Killian Kelly. I’ll ask him. He’s Yeah. All right. He probably already knows it. Um, now some people looking at the route have speculated that Vizma might employ the game plan that they successfully employed in 22 and 23, i.e. pushing the pace wherever possible to put as much as fatigue as possible into the legs of Pagatcha. But given how much he appears to have improved since that 2023 tour,
I don’t think it’s going to work anymore. Agreed. Yeah. He’s not cracking at the end of three weeks, at the end of stage with high calorie expenditure or in high heat really anymore, is he? I think that those two years when he was beaten were a bit of a wakeup call for him. You know, a reminder that he can be beaten and he’s addressed those weaknesses with his new coach. I would be surprised like you if he succumb to that strategy again. Yeah. And he’s got a very strong team around him again this year, hasn’t he? Adam Yates and Jar Ma um last men in the mountains. Civic, sol they can all do mountains, rolling terrain and flat as well. Uh whilst Plet can do well pretty much everything as well, can’t he?
Except positioning. He struggles a bit Plet with positioning, but yeah, he is a beast. Not a team you’d look at and think they’re going to be in trouble defending the yellow jersey. Really, is it? He is the rider to beat and I think they’re the team to beat. Yeah, but naturally we will move on to Vizma and Vineyore. He must have been on a high when he put so much time into Ted in the Doofan time trial. But then reality hit in the subsequent mountain stages, didn’t it? I mean, we know from the past that things can change between the doof and the tour, particularly that final week of the tour, but do they change that much? I don’t see it myself. I mean, I think Vigor said that at the Dofane, he was producing some of the best power numbers that he’d ever done. Certainly that he was pleased with them. So, to then close that gap to Pagatcha, it’s a big ask, I would say. I do hope he gets close that we’ve got a good race on our hands. I feel like if you’re justifying your performance based on power numbers, you’ve already lost.
Well, but yeah, but I would be pleased as well if I produced the I mean, if I improved.
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, yeah, that’s all that’s all you can do, isn’t it? Really?
Control the controllable. S write that one down. Um, now Vinegar has a strong team too, doesn’t it? Particularly for the flatter terrain. So, Vanard, Aeni, Campen Arts, Bonut, they’re all absolute motors on the flat. Jorgensson’s classics pedigree helps him there as well, but he can also climb incredibly well. And Simon Yates will be there. That’ll be interesting to see how he’s going after winning the Jirro. And then there is the ever dependable Septus.
Yeah, not a bad team either. Quite the team really, but they have the strength in numbers at the Dooflet and didn’t really make any difference for them at that race, did it? So, time will tell. Looks like a team for that first 10 days though, doesn’t it? There only so much though you can do tactically when you’re up against somebody as strong as Ted Pagatcha again. I hope it’s close and I’m expecting it to be. I’m just not sure it will be.
You’re really keeping people in suspense, aren’t you? For your prediction later on.
Yeah. Apool.
Yeah. Really?
No. I think we should move on to a next.
Oh, I see what you mean. Okay.
So, he was third last year. Flew around the Dolphin time trial for a dominant win there, but was a little off the pace in the high mountains. And that said, he was way better at this year’s doof than he was last year. So hopefully that bodess well for him.
Yeah. And he’s got some new shoes I was reading. Has he that really light apparently? Um it’s his team that is the big question mark. It isn’t it? So he was often isolated at the doofan. Lander crashed out the jurro and is still recovering. Louis Vea crashed out the doofan and he broke his collar bone. Yeah. It’s not really been plain sailing for sudau quick step in terms of support for a has it? Uh they’re also a team divided in ambitions because they’ve got Tim Malier here with a leadout man as well. More on that later on. So supporting a Nepal when the going gets tough will be Elan Van Wielder, Max Shakman, Matteo Katano and Valentine Par. All side riders but just not quite at the same level as UAE and Vizma. Yeah, as long as he’s got someone with him to get bottles and food and whatever else he needs at some of the crucial moments,
he should be fine, right? But I don’t think he’s closed the gap to the top two in the last 12 months, has he? I mean, mainly to be fair to him due to that offseason crash. Yeah, that really hindered him actually, didn’t it? Wasn’t ideal. Uh he’s also got someone snapping at his heels for that final podium spot and also for the best young rider competition actually. Red Bull’s Florian Lipovit been flying this year and he’s super consistent as well. And Red Bull of course have also got Rogit who’s the official team leader. Now, normally he crashes out of the tour and then he wins Lab Welter, doesn’t he? This year, maybe crashing out of the Jirro is not such a bad thing.
Oh, I see. Well, when you put it like that, yeah, odds on Rogitz are coming down. I do genuinely really hope he stays outside
and not only that, but Clear of Illness as well, but great for the team. They got two cards to play. Vass will be in support in the high mountains. And then Van Pppel, Mayas, Piy, and Van Djk will be trying to keep them safe on the flatter stages.
Well, that’s also going for the sprints.
Yeah, if that if both of those are even possible. Waiting to see. Right. The next person on the book makers list was Richard Carropas, third at the Juralia, but it was announced last week he won’t be at the start for EF due to illness, which is a real shame. It’s a real shame, isn’t it? I mean, even without him, EF have got a really attacking team, haven’t they? With Healey and Powerless at the forefront of that. But who we got next? Uh next up, Carlos Rodriguez of Inos Grande. You can find him at 175 to1 at the moment, which I think is very generous personally. Admittedly, he was off the pace at the DOE, but I feel like that guy comes into his own over the 3-week Grand Tours. Obviously, a podium is going to be difficult, but I wouldn’t say completely out of the question if he finds his best legs. Garren Thomas will also be there, of course, at Inos Grenaders to support him in what will be his final grand tour as a pro rider.
Oh, that’ll be a story to watch, right? Um, after that we’ve got Enrich Mass and Ben O Connor. Again, podium seems unlikely, but given how big the Gulf is from the top few to the rest, I do wonder whether they might be able to slip into a breakaway and gain some time at some point. Jacob also have Eddie Dumbar as well. On that point of slipping into breakaways, Okconor’s got a recent history of doing just that, hasn’t he? Most recently at the Tour of the Swiss, although he did slip quite a long way after initially gaining some time on the first stage. Mass seems to have plateaued, doesn’t he? He’s great rider obviously. He just doesn’t seem to be able to put three great weeks together at the tour to France specifically.
No, that is true. And he won’t like those nervous early stages either. Matte Scalmo leads Leal Trek. Very difficult to say where he’s at formwise. He missed the Tour of France warm-up races because of injury. And so the last time we saw him in action in a stage race was at the Bass Country in April. However, he won the Andor Morabank Classica just over a week ago and the field there was pretty strong. Yeah. So, he’s obviously not in bad form. We just know don’t know what his stage race is like.
I also noticed that he won the Danish National Time Trail Championships from 2024 the day before the 2025 race, which I thought was a good uh what that was. Anyway, next up, Felix Gal of Decathlon A2R. Eighth of the tour to France overall a couple of years ago with a stage win on the cold la descending and positioning are his weak points though. So, I could see him losing a chunk of time over those first nine stages unfortunately.
Yeah, Lenny Martinez and Santiago Petrago spearhead Bahrain Victorious’s GC ambitions. Both have shown multiple signs of brilliance this season, frankly, but there’s still a question mark over their consistency through three weeks. Petrago has said he is gunning for a top five on GC. Uh so maybe even a podium in fact. So you can’t say he’s feeling confident. Yeah. Based on those quotes. Yeah. Um yeah, Bilbo and Mahoric will be there for stage hunting as well.
All right. One other GC potential we should mention before we go on to the sprinters. Oscar Hley of Picnic Post NL had an amazing ride at the Touris Swiss where he’s third overall with a stage win. Second best climate in the race I would say there behind you Almeida. Again, I’ve got a feeling that he will go for stage wins rather than the GC, but he might try and stay up there over the first stages and assess then after the first mountains. We’ll see. Oh, and also Tobias Johannison of Uno X really stepped up his game at the Dofane recently.
He did. Did we mention Lennet Van Edel of Lotto?
Oh, no, we haven’t actually. Um, I think it’s going to be a push for him to ride for GC based on the results he’s had so far this year. Plus, it’s his first tour to France and he also crashed at the Belgian Nationals just last Sunday. But if he’s okay after that, he’ll be up there on a few stages. That’s for sure.
Yeah. Okay. On to the sprinters. And we’re going to start with Tim Malier for the simple reason that he has won more races than any other sprinter this year. 10 as we record this from just 33 days of racing.
34 now actually after the Belgian Nationals, but still quite the strike rate really, isn’t it? In terms of pure sprint speed and power, he’s pretty much on the par of Jonathan Miler. However, Malia seems to be slightly better at positioning and instinct. I would say which I think is why he’s getting more wins. Doesn’t have a full lead out train at the Tour to France, but that is often the case and often doesn’t affect his win rate.
Yeah, this will just be his second appearance at the Tour of France. Believe it or not, he won the first sprint stage in 2021. This year, that first sprint stage also has that yellow jersey on the line. Remember, um he’s got a habit of winning the first stages in Grand Tours. Full sprint stages he has actually. Yeah, it’s also pretty close to home for him as well. So for me, he is the favorite for stage one. A second favorite for me would be Jonathan Milan of Leal Trek who’s making his tour debut. They got more raw power really than he knows what to do with he but as we mentioned he can sometimes get caught a bit out of position.
Yeah. Decent lead train though.
Yeah. Yeah. Uh Stos and Cons are all powerful and know what they’re doing. So it would be more surprising if Milan didn’t win a sprint stage than if he did really. The sprinter on the start line with the most tall wins though is Jasper Philipsson who’s got nine and he’s really the only sprinter I reckon where the whole team are going to be supporting him on the days that suit him the most. Mach of Vanderpool will be there as will Kaden Groves. I think we know from previous tours that they take no prisoners on the sprint stage. Put it like that. So they are the team to beat. It’s just whether or not Philips can finish off finish it off
with that with their DS in the team car. you know, exactly. Amazing. Um, now he’s not looked quite as fast, we should say, Phil, as Merlier in Milan when faced against them in the closing 200 m recently, but again, you’d have thought he probably managed to get at least one stage, wouldn’t you?
Well, he’s done that consistently recently. Yeah.
Yeah. Dina Grovagen has won six stages of the race in the past, including one last year. not quite as consistent as he used to be, but he has had three wins in the last couple of months,
albeit not against the strongest competition in those races, although he is another one that seems to struggle a little bit with positioning, I would say.
Last year’s green jersey winner, Binham Gay, he’ll be there for Antar won three stages at the race last year, although unfortunately he’s not won a race since then.
No, maybe it’ll peak at just the right time. Maybe fingers crossed. In the absence of Jakobson, picnic post NL will count on Tobias Lund. Although he lacks the speed really of the pure sprinters, doesn’t he? Whilst Lotto have Arnold Dele again, not always particularly consistent, but when he’s on form, he is hard to beat particularly after a tough day in the saddle. Moving on to Israel Premier Techch who’ve got Pascal Akaman, but also Jake Stewart who won a sprint stage at the Dolphin in front of some really good riders recently. Phil Bow House will be baffing victorious’s man whilst Uno X will probably look to Surum Baron. There was a small chance actually that Alexander Kristoff who wasn’t initially selected would start because Abraham Hansen broke his collarbone at the tour of Belgium a week or so ago but somehow Abraham has managed to recover in time in 9 days.
Yeah, that’s impressive. Yordi May is there for Red Bull. He is very fast on his day whilst Fernando Givera is Moar’s best hope. Now, I wouldn’t be surprised as well to see Ghana in the mix on a couple of stages as well if it’s been selective enough and it’s not too dangerous.
Yeah, they’ve been allowing riders the more freedom, haven’t they, in your Grenaders this last season or two. Right, a few other riders that we should mention outside of GC and sprinters. You know, Alfie makes his return to the race after a one-year absence and with a new team as well. He will lead TUD to pro cycling Cycling been looking pretty solid actually this season. He’ll be hunting stage wins. Other French hopes Roman Gregoire of Group Palmer and Kevin Vakala of Ara both of whom were brilliant frankly at the tour to Swiss and Valentin Madwa of Group Palmer as well who’s always good for getting in a break without Bardday and Pino who both retired and God’s been lacking for and not not as much to cheer for for the French this year.
Joe Blackmore gets on to what will be his first grand tour. He’s also with Israel Premier Techch. Astana XDS worth watching if the rest of this season’s been anything to go by. Don’t really have any standout bigname riders, but they’ll be picking up decent results, no doubt.
Yeah. And finally, one of the people I’m most excited about, TB Nace. He’s also making his Grand Tour debut. Amazing talent. And whenever we talked about Vanderpool during our stage analysis earlier, you would have thought he’ll be in the mix as well. True. Cyclacross rider for those that don’t know. Um, actually, can I add Abrahamson as well to this? Uh he was such a standout rider last year, wasn’t he?
I mean, I hope his recent injury hasn’t dented his form too much, but he was exciting.
Yeah, I would agree with that. I’d love to see him on the same form as last year.
All right, just before our predictions, a couple of tour to France stats for you.
All statistics. Bear with me, S. So, the oldest rider at this year’s race, Garant Thomas, who turned 39 a few weeks ago. Uh the youngest, not actually that young by modern standards, but Ivan Romeo of Moistar, uh who’s 21, born in 2003.
That makes you sound old as well. Not that young by modern standards.
Well, you know what it’s like now. These 19year-olds winning stuff. Uh meanwhile, the oldest debut is Bert Van Leberger of Sudal Quickstep who is 32.
Finished. Finished.
Okay. Well, since we know who you’re going for, I’m going to give my prediction first.
Oh, are you? Should we do um should we do podium and then also polka dot and green and
Okay. All right then.
Who are you going for?
Pagatcha. Okay. This is going to be boring, isn’t it?
Yeah. All right.
Second.
Vinegore. Who are you going for?
Vine. Pagatcha. Vinegar. Yeah.
Okay. Third.
Uh third. I am going for Leapovitz.
Oh, really?
Who will obviously be best young rider if that’s the case as well.
Wow. Okay. I was going to go Venipool for third. Okay. Just just just copy last year’s podium result.
Nice one.
S.
Yeah, thanks.
Uh, green jersey. I am going Yasp for F.
I think those first nine days he might be able to pick up more points than Malia and Milan cuz he has improved on the short punch he climbs. He’s a blooming good classics rider now, isn’t he?
He is a good classics rider.
I wish I had longer than 30 seconds to think about this actually. I’ve been thinking about since last Tuesday. Uh, oh man. I just I wonder whether like the amount of stages that aren’t the pure sprinters in that first 10 days means that we might not get
Well, there aren’t actually that many real dead sprint stages this year. So, yeah, bear that in mind. Sizes before next year, right?
Would it be too much of a curveball to go Vanderpool?
Do you think it is too much of a curve ball?
No. Go for it, man. You just want to see me with egg on my face. I’m going to go I’m going to go Vanderpool. I just think, you know, just feel like, yeah, you know, maybe he’s got a bit bit of a point to prove at the Tour of France.
Don’t forget the points are swayed in favor of the sprint stages, as in there’s more on the sprint. Anyway, you’ve gone with
no flag to the mask now.
Yeah. Okay. Uh, Polka Dot.
Oh, crocket. Pagata. Yeah. Okay. It’s mega boring, isn’t it? Well, maybe you can spice things up in the comments section below by giving us your predictions for the GC first, second, and third, the polka dot, best young rider, and indeed the green jersey.
And remember, this being bike racing, which is fought out over 21 stages, anything can happen almost literally, can’t it?
Everything does happen, and then Pagatar wins at the end, isn’t it?
Well, h that brings us to the end of this year’s preview show. Um, thank you for watching everyone and like us, enjoy the racing.
Yeah. Oh, just before we go actually, keep your eyes out for some tour to France features coming your way very soon. I’m going to be on the ground next week ahead of the start because it’s quite local really indeed. Yeah. All right. Great stuff. So you will sing.