Tour de France 2025 Preview with Jens Voigt – Tadej Pogacar vs Jonas Vingegaard Again?

Jens Voigt breaks down the Tour de France 2025 – Route, Favourites and a few interesting facts as well.

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00:00 Intro
00:20 Why is the Tour de France the biggest Race?
06:11 What Jens Voigt thinks about the Tour de France 2025 Route
21:00 Jens Voigt’s Interesting Facts about 2025 TDF
25:55 Who are the Tour de France 2025 Favourites?
31:45 How Can Visma Lease A Bike Defeat Tadej Pogacar?
34:08 Best Outsiders?
40:26 Jens’ Predictions

hello everyone and welcome to another episode here on the Cycling Dane podcast or on the Cycling Dane Exit channel if you’re watching there today I’m delighted to be joined yet again by the cycling legend and one of my heroes Yens and today we’re going to be talking about the tour to France and look ahead to the 2025 tour as well but I mean Yens great to have you here again and uh yeah the interview was very very good but uh yeah the tour to France your experience 17 editions winning two stages and being part of a tour to France winning team you’ve done it all basically in the tour what makes the tour such a the biggest race in the cycling world like it or not it is the biggest race you know the season goes like this before the tour the tour and after the tour that’s how the season is organized by basically every single team as I say like it or not that’s just the way it is it is the the biggest stage it is the moment for everyone to you know become a superstar become a superhero become a team leader team captain or become a failure in the eyes of the public there’s also a certain or like a large amount of pressure on everyone the tour is the most important race it’s the most beautiful race i mean they worked 100 years or 120 years almost now to get to that status so I believe also it’s it’s welld deserved is it the hardest race though well you can say that better than anyone but that everything gets a bit tighter everyone goes for spaces a bit more risky risky spaces everyone puts that extra 10% in on every stage the tour in terms of numbers and profile it is not always the hardest of the three grand tours often the giritaria or the welter has more hilltop finishes uh more climbing more altitude meters also in terms of distance it is not always the longest of all of them for example this year the juralia was so so so heavy loaded towards the last week the tours it’s nicely I believe nicely balanced it’s a good mix between sprinter days medium mountain days for breakaways and really killer mountain days what makes it so different is that in a Juralia for example four riders want to win and maybe 12 want to be top 10 and in the total frunks 10 riders want to win 30 riders want to be top 10 and every single starter wants to win at least the stage that makes it so much harder the average speed is is is harder every square meter is harder fought for by every single rider the grande finale these days starts at 100 kilometers to the finish line basically a normal to the frunk stage is full guest start for the breakaway 10 minutes where everybody can eat and drink and quickly talk hey how was your day yesterday how was your day tomorrow and then bang the GC team start chasing ready to break away and it’s another GC day or a sprinter day that’s a normal tour to the frunk stage the way you have an hour of nothing happens no that doesn’t happen anymore so it’s just much more intense also what you see on a typical tour stage is full guest start and then when as soon as the race gets organized and teams start chasing it is the team of the yellow jersey all eight of them together the team of the second place in GC all eight behind the first team number three behind them and so on and so on these kids hardly talk anymore these days it’s just all focused and your radio you hear eat and drink spin your legs don’t forget to eat and drink spin your legs come back for fresh water come back for ice bags for your neck it it it’s it’s never easy it’s never relaxed that what makes the turf so incredibly hard then you have I mean remember to keep uh well this year we are up to 23 teams right um that is 23 by 8 um um um um help me quickly um it’s 160 plus 168 174 182 riders it’s 182 riders to keep 182 riders on the road the to the frunks ask for I believe it is 3,000 500 beds per night sleeping places with um journalists uh team members uh press officers team doctors TV journalists everybody what people putting up the barriers every morning and building them back down every night i believe it’s it’s three and a half thousand people all of it so that’s is it’s a massive undertaking bigger than anything else price money is bigger pressure is bigger everything is bigger at the to the frunks or for people they they’re not so familiar with cycling or with professional cycling here’s a very good example now we uh just had the Dofine finished right and the Dolphin Beret in France it’s one of the classic preparation races for the to Frances that’s why people come there to see some of to France stages right so let’s say Patcha and Wing God going together towards any given village in the Dolphin and they come to a corner you look at each other and go hey you know what why don’t you go ahead I started to the France in 3 weeks time and two weeks time I don’t want to crash and the other one goes no why don’t you go ahead I’m relaxed I started to the francs in two weeks and I want to be ready two weeks later in the tour to France the same two riders as let’s say Pach and Bing come together to that same corner and they both will say hey if you don’t break we both going to crash because I ain’t breaking and the other one is going to say if you don’t break we both going to crash because I am not going to break this is the tour so that is the difference that people are just that a little more desperate and determined than in any other race well we might as well look towards 2025 you kind of alluded to it what do you think of the root of This year’s tour the first week is well you could almost say classics focus with starting in Leo and there’s two time travels in there uh one flat one up the perigur and montour returns as well um well also another effect this year’s to France is 100% on French soil we haven’t had that for a while i believe we do not visit Switzerland or Belgium or Luxembourg or Spain or Andor none of it it’s 100% in France it doesn’t start with a TT or prologue just a first stage bang and since it starts up north around Dank Dank is windy and it’s a little bit undulating what the toss does again like it or not they like to have a little twist within each stage it’s either wind or a stupid tricky little hill in the last whatever five or 10 kilometers or a little bit of cobblestone or they go across these piece of road where it’s only twice a day dry and the rest of the day it’s underwater because of the tide coming in and out we had that a few times in the to the francs so they they they like their challenges first stage Le Metropole that should be finishing crashes and wind apart it should be a massive bunch kick but then already next bombius sumea that’s famous from 4 days of dunk kick because it got a little uphill sprint so not every sprinter will be there a stage three finishing in Dank there is the last I believe um 30 or 32 km open as soon as you pass Eastburg there’s a little hill perfect launching pad and then it’s exposed through wind after that so that is tricky and nerve-wracking so for the GC riders every single day in the first week they got to be alerted to the max to not lose time they cannot gain much time there but they can lose so much time with a crash getting caught in a crosswinds or somebody else crashes in front of you and you be blocked behind it you don’t even have to hit the ground but if somebody crashes in front of you the road is blocked the race is gone then we have stage six uh by you via Normandy that is a lot more hilly than people think if you add the altitude together it’s almost like a mountain stage then you have the stage seven murder bratanna we do it twice the nerve wrecking moment to get into the muratani because the muran is actually not much wider than our screen on our laptops honestly it’s like two maybe three riders next to each other maximum if they like you know out of the seat you know so to place their GC rider or whatever to place Matthew Thunderpool in a good position that will be so much drama and stress before that actually it might be much more interesting to see the first time up the M Bratana than the actually the proper finish because there might be only 25 riders left at the finish line it’s the fight to get there in the first place so it will be nerve-wracking and it will be stressful for everyone i like that this you also did do a little bit of a memorial tour so when we pass uh to um now where is it uh Ruen where there stage number four ruen isn’t it the birthplace of jeez no no no J anatier oh okay it might be as well yeah yeah and then via Normandy stage six I believe we pass at the memorial statue of the first to the France winner after World War II and we pass some historic moments where Greg Lemon laid the base of his further win future win in the to France first American to win a stage in the tour take the jersey and win the tour of France first non-European rider Greg Lemon we passed some historic battlegrounds where Lfong had great success there’s a few moments like that what I like but nothing really um connected to cycling i like to start in San Malo because Sang Malo is the birth and living place of Robert Suku the basically the the Francis Drake of France like a well famous sailor explorer pirate as well served a little bit under Napoleon really successful did uh break the um British sea blockade did break through there a few times like a really gifted sailor so I like that a bit of pirate feeling in the tour of France with the start in Sang Malo so yeah the the tour has it has it all we don’t have a team time trial but we had the comeback of a mountain top uphill time trial whatever you call that in correct English and that’s that’s pretty brutal two kimas flat in the valley maybe three and then bang straight up perfect place to actually for every single spectator because these riders come by almost at walking speed one by one with a large sign with their name and number on the follow-up car like a really big sign with the name of the rider and his number so even if you’re not a complete expert and they wear the skin suit and the visor and the helmets you know exactly who is actually coming past because there’s a huge name on the car behind that rider so perfect place for every single spectator what do you think of Mon 2 then because the last time we had Mmon 2 was the first battle between Yonas Bingo and Tarvata really they did it twice there watard took the win but here it’s nothing and then just up Monu um yeah that is um basically the first two/3s of the stage is plane transport from A to B but then again it starts to be um nervous and stressful for the placing to go into the climb monu steep at the bottom in a forest it’s stinky hot because it’s covered in a forest by the time the riders get there the sun will be burning vertically back on their backs of the riders not a little breeze of wind in that forest it is really it’s stinking hot and terrible so it’s important to be well placed that you can negotiate your effort a little bit if you feel good you can attack if you don’t feel good you can slowly drift back a little bit and hope you survive until you actually find your legs again so placing a positioning is so important there and then the second half is it looks like you’re on the moon you know it’s just rocks you above the tree line exposed to the wind everybody remembers when we had to cancel the stage in the to France because it was so much wind up there that they had to cancel the stage and lower the finish line by like 10 15 kilometers there’s images of people standing holding their bike on the handlebars and the bike is basically horizontal flying in the wind that is how much wind there can be up there the view up there is priceless because it is not in the Alps it’s on the outside so you can see the Alps on one side and you can I swear you can almost see half of France on the other side on a clear day you can watch look up to 80 kilometers if the air is clear there’s no clouds it is really worth going up there but my friends there’s a reasons reason why it’s called Leong the proven the giant of the proven because it’s hard it is a long long ass climb it’s what is it 18 km or 21 from the one side and 18 and a half from the other side it is a hard piece of work to get up there there’s a lot of big stages as well in that final third week and yeah you talk about the Jurro very heavy at the back but which stages are you kind of looking out for we got La Planch in there as well not Llanchi but La Pl i think it’s that’s how you say it and well back to the motor too quickly i believe it will be a GC day the yellow jersey whoever it is will win there it’s prestigious in yellow winning on one fan two the stage is not too long so I believe really it is a day for the GC for the GC leader they they want to control it and they want to keep it together the stage is 170 km 172 km long and yeah I believe the yellow jersey wants to win there there’s one which one is it la Plan you meant yeah stage 18 and then 19 quite a combination yep so stage 19 it’s only 130 km long it’s 5 kilo and the added climbing kilometers just with categorized climb it is 62 km uphill 62 km uphill that is basically from I don’t know from Copenhagen to Malm just all uphill uphill uphill uphill that is a hard stage and there’s a slightly uphill start and only 7 kilometers after the start they will enter the first big mountain pass it’s one of these days where you will see the entire pillon warming up a home trainers because they be terrified of that day stage 20 to Pontier that’s 185 km long it’s in the Jura the forest mountain chain so they go massive central Pyrenees the Alps and the Jura region they don’t do the alzak or alas alzak like close to the French German water border they they cut they they don’t do it this time so for mountain change that’s a pretty tough one but classic for breakaways and what I like about stage 20 pontay is the inofficial capital of the famous absent lia so whenever you win you might have an upsent to celebrate and if you don’t win you might just drain 10 of them to actually forget the misery that the last stage for the breakaway before Paris um you actually didn’t win so but there’s another stage I like a lot stage 18 Koshal Kalos 171 km long 5,500 m of climbing toughest stage in terms of climbing we go colder gland colder matlane and colder alos with 2,300 m altitude so almost three times close to 2,00 or above it is uh every 12 km it goes uphill uh there’s like like a number like 12 13 or 11 km it’s uphill so it’s basically like like ch up down up down up down up down it’s it’s a super hard one and if you in the yellow jersey you really have to have a good team around you because you cannot control it by yourself and if you’re three two three riders down it might be a really golden opportunity for everybody else to attack you because you need your team to help you to control that day because everybody who has a little bit left in the gas tank will attack you for the stage for the mountain jersey for the yellow jersey for the white jersey for the team competition there will be hell on earth on that day I expect so the yellow jersey can only hope he got his entire team still functioning and around him and then let’s finish the tour of France i mean we can talk about it more shant stage no it’s not anymore they changed it and I mean in my humble opinion it’s a mistake there’s no need to do it like that they can go up that wonderful climb to Sakraur or Mont Matra let’s start out of Paris go easy into Paris drive through the Lou like always go up at a relatively neutral speed that Mont Matra go down and then Shay bang and raise a Shams so now when you want to go through that Loura but everybody knows 5 km down the road we got to go up Mont Matra the road is that small they going to race with 60 km an hour through the Louvre there’s cobblestones there’s like little driveways and footpasses how the hell do you want to organize that so I I don’t think it’s necessary the tour is hard enough you don’t need to add more drama on the last day if you want to have beautiful TV pictures do it early in the race people go neutral they can smile they can enjoy the view to Mont Matra um but don’t do it in a race like in the final because it’s another GC day so like I don’t see the big typical sprinters I don’t see them surviving it i mean just you remember the Olympics there were not much sprinters left there so I I I don’t know i I think it’s too hard the the race is hard enough it’s three weeks of intense racing um but um again just um my private thought here’s how it happened uh Mr emmanuel Macron called Predom the tour said hey Manuel listen I like the pictures at the Olympics with everybody in the Olympic roadways going up to Mont Matra it shows the best site of our French nation i want this in the tour and then the tour predom goes we we miss you we we chef we we chef what can you do if your president calls you you go “Yes chef of course we do that.” I I honestly in my private opinion I don’t think it was the first option the first choice of uh Christian Predom and the ASO but if the president wants these road then what can you do because to France still gets a lot of tax money in support as well right so yeah you got to make the big boss happy yeah you are right though we’re not going to see if it’s close between let’s say Yosingo and Tagacha if there’s a minute like none of them are going to be relaxing and champagne before the stage you’re right it’s a GC day and to make it even worse the last stage finishes if Paris is here the last stage finishes like out of our screen on the Swiss border at 400 pm at 5:00 p m and they got to cover 500 kilometers to be next day in Paris to be racing and no it’s not relaxed and burgers at night and pizza at night because the next day is relaxed sprinter day no no no no no it’s another big GC day in Paris so that adds so much more stress they got to eat healthy drink their water bottles and whatever have a flight transfer at night or early morning it adds so much extra stress i I don’t see it being necessary a few interesting facts about this year’s tof francs it’s the 50th anniversary of the two finish on a short le in Paris 50 years from this year on it is also the 50th anniversary for the polar dot jersey for the best climber and the white jersey for the best neo professional or young professional 50 years the first performance winner after the world war II is Jean Robi and we passed his statue in Normandy the birthplace of Jack Angier yes is Ruan total distance 3,320 kilometers four mountain regions massive central followed by the Pyrenees followed by the Alps and the Jura region seven flat stages six mountain stages with fifth mountain top finishes and six hilly stages plus the two time trials we have a total of 51,550 vertical meters which is more or less like they do almost every year but it is a lot it is a lot just remember the uh highest mountain on Earth then whatever is 8,800 is it 84 or 48 in the end i always mix that up but I believe it’s 8,800 48 yeah I think you’re right 48 yeah 48 um so they go up that um well five times six times almost so yeah that is a lot of climbing already and I can’t wait and I also believe we might see a more exciting toss because I don’t think Pagacha is that dominant like the other years yonas’s crash was way earlier this year so he had more time to recover and be ready uh Ramco after last year’s uh third place talon he became double Olympic champion so he will be motivated he will be ready he will be um also full of confidence we got a new player with Lipovitz maybe white want to have one very last go at it Ben O’ Conor as an outside dark horse so there there’s more than one contender and every series has to come to an end and Tad winning two years or last year winning so dominantly i don’t see it being that easy for him this year i think the tour will be much more thrilling and exciting than we actually expected to be in the moment what do you think of Lupovitz you’re German he’s German we’ve been missing a German at the top echelon of the sport for a few years yes we did we had a few promising talents but but none ever came up to really that level i mean you got to be a special breed to be able to be top three even top six top five in the to France there is not many people on the planet who has the physical ability to actually do that so and I’m not sure what Bora or Rul Bhan wants to do if they want him to be the first lieutenant or if they go you know what we just go all in and you do whatever you want we back you up Florian Lipovitz if you finish third fourth we happy if you break down the middle of it you finish 14th we are still happy just go and explore yourself because he’s young he also comes from from a ski sport he did a bathlon before so who knows where the limit is for him maybe give him like a you know blanco check like a cart blanch you know what just go and explore yourself whatever comes out of it we will be happy with that but then again it’s the to francs nobody does experience experiments at the to the frunks you can do that in giritalia or maybe the welter but the to francs it’s too important so I wonder if they go in there with roglitch and lipoitz as leaders we will have the answer soon i mean roglitch hasn’t finished the tour to France since 2020 i know i know but then again also that series has to come to an end i mean he cannot crash out every single time or become sick or whatever but while the Jirro same story four times crashed four times of course you go you know what I had enough i mean it’s it’s it’s a tragedy almost is such an accomplished rider he won every big race on the planet except the tours i mean the he won four times now I believe did you retalia he won the two of the bus country and and whatnot he won a lot a lot of big races lee Baston just France is always escaping him um so yeah it would be and to Denmark ah yeah that’s a big race as well correct that is a big race as well well may he maybe need to focus on that forget about the Todd Frunks go to Denmark instead yeah no apparently you have to be Belgian to win that race in the last few years so I mean we’ve talked about the route and uh we have this fascinating situation that we’ve kind of alluded to with Yonispingo and Tabagatcha looking so dominant and obviously they jked it out at the criterium to do but I feel like you were almost in this position in 2010 that you are against this allconquering rider Alberta Contidor but you guys had the strongest team well both teams have a big budget um UAE I believe biggest budget um of all of the teams and so they have quite the resources to not only prepare the races in the most perfect way but also buy really good riders so with um Auzu um or Adam Yates as a domestique I mean really that is actually quite some some some serious quality yonas is having good team as well so I believe in terms of teams it’s more or less balanced if van art is in good shape he is back at the tour of France he is a really important asset for the more flat stages or medium mountain stages for positioning Yonas protecting Yonas from any sort of stress he could be really playing a crucial role there if he is in good shape he is better than anybody else in Tari Pugacha’s team for the same role right and don’t forget we mentioned it before he did win the stage or the Montan 2 before so if it comes to it he can climb pretty well also so he is maybe very a key factor in Yurus Vinger’s try to win the to France to have van art in good shape on his side but then again it adds another luxury problem about fun art it’s It’s not Joe average he likes to help but he also wants to have at least one day for himself to win a total frunk stage for himself i mean he he is one of the five superstars of our sort or maybe it’s six now with M Patterson winning all the time as well he’s also one of the superstars of our sport now so it’s Yonas it’s Pugaka it’s Remco for the GC and Makapole Vanard Mat Patterson for the one day races or stages so if you have vultard in a team that gives you a lot of horsepower extra but also the guy is a winner the guy is a champion he wants to win one day as well so how do you make everybody happy that is maybe a challenging problem as well when pugatcha is at a race it is pugatcha or nobody he is the captain and there’s not even a question about it like things like at the jury it talia oh are they going to go for Adam Yates maybe Io Isak Del Toro or Brenon Magnaldi that question does just not exist when Bugattacha’s at the race it’s pugatcha and nothing else that makes it very clear and simple for them they don’t have a sprinter there they don’t uh try for anything but yellow jersey with tad so that’s very clear and easy for them but then again I rather have Valtron art on my side but have the in quotation marks complicated problem to make him happy to give him a stage one day so I believe there is a slight advantage for this Malisa bike here do you think UAE are stronger in the climbing we saw it last year that they kind of isolated Yonas quite a lot and Almeida very strong finished fourth yates was used a number of times as a very good tactical pawn and Visma they have Mattel Jorgensson Sebus that’s kind of their lead support in the clims but even there I feel like maybe UAE are stronger yes I mean we have seen other parts where TAD was sometimes earlier years relatively early isolated in the big mountains he had to do a lot by himself that is different Now um he got a strong yeah strong line of of riders um helping him to win um to win the two to win any given GC car had his prime when he did all three grand tours one year ended up winning the welder spa he is still a very solid rider but maybe he’s missing one or two% of his best shape Jurgensen is taking over Jurgens material Jurgens is super strong he is a really good solid rider so I believe they can count on him now I don’t think there’s too much of difference and and you know by by the end of the day it is just cycling it’s not rocket science you got to cross the white line first and then you win so even if Tad Pagacha has still five riders left Yonas sits on the wheel and beats Tad on the line then Yunas will win the toaf francs even though he is for the last 5 km by himself he just needs to be stronger than Tad Pugatcha either on the flats in the time trials uphill or flat time trial or on a mountain at one certain moment you got to be stronger than your opponent to gain time so the team yes the team is important to defend it or prepare your attack but you can take the jersey without a team you cannot really defend it without the team but to take a stage to take the yellow jersey you follow the best rider and beat him at the end it’s pretty simple sometimes i mean in theory you know what would you do to try and catch out T you put talking about in Leil Donker you’ve got crosswinds there i mean T was at the UAE tour so he knows how to ride crosswinds and then the time trials has kind of been sometimes Yon sometimes Baga and then we thought last year that the weakness for Pagatcha was a lot of clients after each other but that he kind of threw that out of the window as well yep that is the million dollar question or million euro question or Danish croner question danish croner wouldn’t be that much um it really looks like that Tad Bugattacha doesn’t have a weakness he he not often rarely does uh cactical mistakes he doesn’t crash that often if he crashes it’s he still seem to be okay after it’s not that he you know is out for the race the team is good he’s good on the mountains i mean remember that time frame where Yonas Wingigot put like what a minute or two minutes into Bugattacha when Yonas won to the frunks last time yonas was so strong in that time frame if Yonas can hit these numbers again then you know he might gain time in the TT surprise attacks i I remember um the last um Dolphini just finishing bugattacha had an interview oh yeah Yonas and the team they tried to attack over the top of the climb go aggressive in the downhills so he felt a little bit isolated and then he went just attacked i said “Yeah my attack was not to win a stage it was more self-defense you know i felt like I’m a little isolated and to stop any sort of tactics I just attacked by myself early.” So it even there it’s hard to surprise him with an attack i mean at the World Championships he attacks at 100 km to go who would have thought so it is hard basically it comes down to brutal strengths you got to be stronger you got to be incredibly lucky that he is having a bad day or does a tactical mistake and you can drop him in a crosswinds or you just got to be simple and brutally stronger i don’t see smart tactics really helping against Bugattacha and his team and his team managers in the car they they absor observe the race as well so yeah you got to be incred incredibly lucky or incredibly strong to beat Bugattacha what do you think about the rest of the riders we haven’t really talked about other than touching on Floyd Lipids Venopool for instance third place last year you mentioned him do you think any of these other team leaders are going to be playing a part of it or is it going to be like last year where they kind of have the first row seat to the Vingo Pagata battle um Remco wasn’t well or yes he was kind of far behind yes i mean it was third but yeah you can almost say I mean with all the respect the guy is double Olympic champion you know not even Eddie Merks achieved that so um but yeah he was the best of the rest last year’s tour of France certain a tour which is an incredible achievement but he was nowhere close to challenge either Wingerg or Pugatcha and Remco I believe he is very very good at one day classics one week stage races like whatever Perin the Dolphin or to the Swiss Maybe but for the grand tours he still seemed to have one day where things don’t work out or he cracks under the pressure or he didn’t feel good or the stability seems to be still a weakness for him if there’s a weakness in him the ability to overcome mental stress as well i mean this year the team worked for him he didn’t feel good but then he just stops and finishes whatever 35ths or 25 whatever it was he could have still finished four or five but he said nah I’m cracking giving up and then he went easy to the finish line and then your grand tour dreams are over if you have one day like that then again some years ago he was leading the welterpa losing the jersey losing a lot of time and had a comeback with two or three more stage wins so that’s like shapo that that’s a comeback you know getting your head kicked in come back and win three more stages that’s a champion so it’s hard to say but I I I believe um from the three superstars he is the least stable or reliable he still seem to have this one day where things don’t work out or he cracks a little bit um Roglitch I mean the guy is strong if he doesn’t crash he is definitely he’s up there you know i mean as I said he won the Jurro Italia he won the WA three or four times so he definitely knows how to race for a great or grand tour um he was second in a tour behind Pugacha when he had this terrible time on his second last day so yeah Ben Okconor would be another one and I really must say I like Lenny Martinez i think he he still has more potential to develop than he has shown yet i believe he still can be better than he already is so there there there’s another one and then from that um either the other talents are blocked in with their team like you know Auzu will be helping Pugatcha Jurgensen will be able or will be forced or told to help Yonas so he cannot try his own luck the Juralia winner i don’t know if he is ready or willing or even starting the tour simon Yates forgot to mention yeah that’s another good climate but I’m not sure if he actually is starting the tour maybe the plan was not to even to start the tour and go Jirro and Welter you know or if if he recovers uh from the Jirro so there would be if he starts there’s another interesting name i was going to ask you about this as well before I ask you about your prediction for the tour why have we not had a tour to France winner from France since Bernardo cycling has well simple answer and it’s a hard and uh honest answer simply because cycling has changed and French cycling has not changed quick enough or drastically enough there’s talent there but they caught in the old French way of doing things it’s tradition and it gives you a lot of security and safety you know always what to expect there’s never be a bad surprise but there’s also not a good surprise you know like your sport director your team leader comes and goes “Hey I did this for 15 years as a pro cyclist and for the last 20 years as a sport director i did like this and we keep doing like this.” And then you finish four to 10 you cannot win you got to adapt to modern cycling or you stay where you are that is one problem another problem is that if I’m right only in France every rider has to be employed right so with social security retirement pension form and all that health insurance everything so in order to sign a rider like Tari Pugata for a French team let’s say he wants 5 million on his account right in a team he is now he gets 5 million if he wants to go to a French team or a French team wants to sign him they got to pay 8 million so that he has 5 million on his account because he’s employed so they got to pay health insurance in percentage of his income taxes all that because he is an employee of the team so that makes it so much more expensive for French teams to have a bigger name than for um countries they have a different rule or different uh setup where writers are self-employed or go via image contract uh so and so on that’s another reason why it is super hard and expensive to hold a talented developing rider in a French team or to buy a big rider because you need to pay so much more on top of it because your social charges are so much um higher but then again you’re from Denmark you probably know about high social charges and high taxes and all extremely high taxes mhm yeah i thought you’d be the right person because you’ve written for a French team okay y uh 2025 tour to France what is your prediction for well not just the podium but also I would say best sprinters as well and each of the jerseys each of the jerseys um okay well the thing everything looks now it’s still going to be Turacha right I mean he had a relatively modest time trial in the Dofine i wonder why what that was all about i mean he still did a good time trial but for being tad Pogacha the time trial was modest or or even average you have to say but it’s 3 weeks there’s a mountain top time trial he got a strong team he is coming out of a long training period after the one classics he did so now he got this one block of of stage racing in his legs so he’s only going to go better i believe uh the odds are in favor for him second Yonas again probably a lot closer than last year i don’t see TDY winning six stages again in the total of France so Yonas a lot closer third place third place i don’t know just wishful thinking i go Ben Okconor i cannot pick the same podium like last year i mean it’s I thought you were going to say lipo bits ah he’s still too young i mean three weeks tours it’s still different right and I’m not sure if is riding or not so I go Ben Okconor I mean the guy was what second in the world championship last year uh he was strong in the welter spa so I believe he he got a chance for last podium spot who do you think will be the best sprinter as well the best sprinter will be Milan he is ready he is prepared all season long it was clear for him no joy Italia all for the to France they want to win stages not necessarily take the green jersey but win stages so I believe he will be not not like Mutz Patterson go in breakaways to pick up points in the middle survive the medium hard stages and all that uh I think it’s spectacular sprints or 150 years right so the green jersey probably I still see with Jasper Phillips but the best sprinter will be Yonathan Milan tim Muria doesn’t tempt you or Binyam Gay no no no i go Yeah I I think I it’s Yeah it’s it’s it’s Phillips he’s just reliable he knows how to how to do it well binam Gim he did the green jersey last year so yes he knows how that works as well but um yeah with Binam I believe everything has to become together really perfectly preparation the racing stages uh the team the team support uh that doesn’t happen every year and Yes phillips and his team they know how to work it um so I believe he is the man for the green jersey um the white jersey is Yona still able to get it no then I guess it’s Auzo i’m not sure Auzu is going he’s not maybe not in a tour no oh wow well then um it’s not the TA frunks um then I believe a user might be in a different team next year i see a little bit of unrest and unhappiness there and you see one bad apple ruins the whole basket of it so if a writer is not happy and he is just negative and wants to go even though there’s a million dollar contract or whatever $2 million contract find a way that the new team pays half of it or you just write some of the money off as a team or the writer goes you know what I ripped the contract you keep your money I just need to go somewhere else i I but again it’s my private speculation i have no clue no really information about it but it’s just how I feel after the the Jirro Italia that um a user realizes okay I will never be able to catch Pugacha and I’m not even second anymore because now Isakalo passed me so I’m third in my own team but he could be the king in any other team right so I I I could see people or I could see him oh who’s your white jersey well then I would need a look at the potential start list there you’ve got Ramco Laney Martinez Lipovitz well then um let’s go for Lipovitz for that one yep lipovitz polka dot jersey car pass winning last year yeah um oh we haven’t talked about team Ena’s grain ideas i don’t see them really being a contender for a podium but if Bernal wants he could go in breakaways and take the polka dot jersey but I’m not sure if if that is what he wants or if he prefers to finish somewhat 4-6 in the in the overall i guess he would rather go for the overall car pass was good in a Jurro um the tour no I don’t think that suits him that well so yeah let’s give it back let’s give it again to Kapas Roman is not there anymore so I guess Kapas it’s it’s a good option team competition team UAE because Bugattacha is going to be winning um he going to have his lieutenants finishing eight and nine or whatever so I believe he’s going to take or the team going to secure the the team’s competition the one two stage big battle between the GC riders I would say because it’s an easy stage the team of the leader which I believe will be Pugatcha can easily control it and Pugatcha might try to win it or we see a generous present from Pugatcha to Yonas and go you know what Yonas take that stage I’m already two minutes ahead and I don’t need 10 seconds bonus maybe we see that but otherwise I go probably Pugatcha What about the final stage since uh the Saka Kur climb is in there what do you think will happen there if there’s no crash in the run to that climb or on that climb where people like have to get off their bike and they lose time really quickly right because if you stand still and they still moving in the first group you lose so much time if that doesn’t happen which I don’t hope nobody deserves to lose the race on the last day because of a crash or spectator waving the flag into your front wheel right nobody deserves to lose a race after three weeks of hard work i believe it’s one of the classics riders Matthew Thunderpool going to get away and take it i would love to see that mhm yeah I think that’s a very good predictions there or or vote for an art if Yonas goes you know what i’m 2 minutes behind Pugacha i cannot make it vote you go but yeah I think one of these two guys got the best chances um there it’s not hard enough for the GC riders but it’s too hard for the sprinters so it’s got to be one of these classic type riders yeah I think that’s also a very good place to finish as well yens I really want to thank you for your time once again and of course if you want to see more of Yens he’s got his own podcast with Bobby Julik the Odd Tandem and I’m sure we’ll see Yens here again so uh hit the like button subscribe to the channel and uh yeah I’ll see you in the next one and hopefully we’ll have Yens back soon as well thanks for having me and yeah thanks for listening to all the viewers and listeners thanks for listening [Music]