Giro d’Italia 2025 – PREVIEW / FAVOURITES / PREDICTION

Giro 2025 preview – top 10 favorites & podium prediction.

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0:00 – Giro d’Italia 2025 course preview – stage breakdown
8:15 – Giro d’Italia 2025 – GC riders to watch + betting odds
14:35 – Giro d’Italia 2025 – sprinters to watch
15:35 – Giro d’Italia – 2025 Cycling Guy top 10 favourites + podium prediction

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Hi everybody. With the spring classics in the bag, there is no time to waste because the first grand tour of the season is already upon us. The 108 Jirro dital italia is starting this Friday, May the 9th, and good for 21 stages covering roughly 3,400 kilm and 52,000 m of elevation gain. The first three stages will be run in Albania. Before looking at the preliminary start list, I’ll quickly run you through the stages so we’re on the same page. You can also check out my initial root reaction for some additional insights. On top, as usual, I’ll be going deeper into the course of these respective stages, the race situation going into the stage, and the potential scenarios when uploading my daily previews. So, if these are of interest to you, don’t hesitate to subscribe and to turn on notifications. This year around we got a cycling guys sub league going on wheeler where we’ll be competing against other sub leagues for the sub league crown. I’d like to thank those who joined and I’ll be leaving some thoughts on team composition in the comment section of our sub league. Stage one is 164k stage with slightly over 2,000 m of elevation gain and the surl climb featuring twice in the finale. Roughly 5k at 5.4% 4% average yet with the first K at 8% presenting an opportunity for the more punchy riders to create some separation. The Pitcocks, Sperson, and Vanard of this world should be able to hurt people here to then fight for Pink in a sprint of a small group. Personally, I really want Far to take this one. On stage two, the riders get presented with the first of two individual time trials. At nearly 14k, this first one is fairly short, featuring a 1k long incline at 6% average halfway through the stage. Overall, there’s around 115 m of elevation gain on this parkour. And pre-race, I’m expecting a van darling battle here. On stage three, a lot can happen. And even though there’s a chance we’ll get to see a team controlling this stage to defend the pink jersey, it is not unlikely in my book for this one to go to the breakaway. Expect the fight for the breakaway to be vicious given there’s riders who will see an opportunity here to snatch the pink jersey. Pull and frio are some of the names that come to mind. After this stage, there’s a day to travel. Stage four is a classic sprint stage, and I’ll provide an insight on the fast man lining up later on in this preview. Stage five runs over 145k and has around 1500 m of elevation gain. The finale gets introduced by the nearly 3k at 8.5% average Montes Scaglo and from the top there’s roughly 30k to go. So it’s not unthinkable for one of the teams having a versatile sprinter in their ranks to control this. Peters and Venard are two riders that come to mind here. There’s a lot of opportunities for the fastman in this first week of the 2025 Jirro and stage six into Naples is one of them. At 226K, it is the longest stage of this year’s Jirro. Stage seven runs through the Epanines and is the first fourstar stage of this year’s Jirro. It’s also the first stage with an uphill finish. The stage runs over 170K with nearly 3,500 m of climbing with a perfect layout for riders to get into the brake. While the finish is well suited for a GC battle, a first category climb running over 12.6K 6k with the final 3k going up at 9% average. More on this during my upcoming daily preview. Stage 8 covers nearly 200k and 3,800 m of elevation gain through the epanines and has breakaway written all over it. Also this year around the riders will be presented with a gravel stage that features strateke roads in the finale. In total the riders will tackle five gravel sections good for nearly 30k on the white stuff. In total, there’s nearly 2,500 m of climbing in this 180k long stage. As in the strrade, the riders will tackle the Mura de Santa Katarina before entering the Piaza del Campo. This is a stage for the Punchy Classics riders. Pitcock will have this stage marked. Week two starts with a 29k long nearly flat ITT from Luca to Pizza with a 14k 8.6% average climb in the middle of the stage. Stage 11, which features 3,685 meters of climbing, has climbing breakaway written all over it. On stage 12, the wart moves back to the sprinters. The first half of the stage is hilly, yet the final 100k are flat. Also, stage 13 is fairly flat, yet the run into the finish, roughly a kilometer at 7.5% average, should benefit a versatile sprinter or a punchy rider. And don’t be surprised to see GC riders like Rogich mixing it up here. This is one of these stages where the top 10 may comprise a very diverse set of rider types. In recent history, the finish featured once in the Jirro won by Jilar ahead of Kador and Ulysi. Stage 14 is another long and flat one. And the final day before the third rest day, we get a 214k stage with nearly 4,000 meters of elevation gain with a 25k long Monte Graa midway through the stage. A big day in the saddle, which I’m expecting to go to the breakaway. Names that come to mind here are Fortunado and Rubio. And pre-stage, definitely look out for a GC contender that has dropped time. After two relatively easy opening weeks for the GC men, the final week hits out hard. Coming out of a rest day into a 200k stage with nearly 5,000 meters of elevation gain is simply brutal. A true mountain sawtooth stage with a mountaintop finish presenting the riders with three first category climbs. This is money time for the GC man while at the same time presenting a great stage for the breakaway only climbing and descending. No valleys where they’re disadvantaged against the chasing pack. And that being said, without knowing the race situation, I’m calling it for the GC men at this point. The suffering continues on stage 17, which features the Paso Deltonale and the Morti Rollo. Good for 5,700 m of climbing over 154K stage. Without knowing the race situation, looking at the layout of the stage, I’m calling this one for the breakaway. Stage 18 is short and the ward moves back to the fast man, providing the sprinters with an extra incentive to continue till Rome. After an easy stage 18, the riders move into another two brutal stages back to back. Stage 19, the second of three five-star stages, 166k, and 4,900 m of elevation gain. A break will form, yet with all the climbing in the second half of the stage, they’ll need a big cap to make it stick. And hence I’m calling this for the GC riders. Which brings us to stage 20, the decisive stage of the Jirro where everything can still be won or lost. Another five-star stage where you can expect to allow GC action on the Cole Deinestre 18K at over 9% average climbing to 2,178 m and the Chima copy of this edition comprising 8 km of 9% gravel towards the top. The stage has everything for some proper drama, a long and steep climb, the only or category one of this jirro gravel and altitude. What more do you want? Pre-race. I’m also calling this one for the GC man. And the jirro ends with a traditional sprint stage in Rome. So, just like last year, we’re presented with the Jirro that features the toughest stages in terms of climbing in the final week. As you can clearly see from this chart presenting the cumulative elevation gained per stage. This year Jirro features three five-star stages and they all sit in the final week. So, to summarize, and for those of you entering a fantasy cycling league, we have two individual time trials, and without knowing the actual race situation, I’m expecting six pure sprint stages, three versatile sprint stages, a classic style breakaway stage, five to six mountain stages to be won from the break, and three to four GC days, which combined with the ITTs will be decisive for the general classification. Here’s an overview of the winners of the final 10 editions of the Jirro Ditalia with three wins going to Inos with three different riders F Genhard and Bernnal. Unlike as on the final editions where we only had one former winner lining up, this year’s lineup is quite stacked comprising five former winners. Garapas, Gintana, Rogich, Hindley, and Bernell. Besides them, we also have podium finishers Gauso L, Simon Yates, Skeelderman, and Danny Martinez. Some other notable riders who’ve done well here in the past are Micah Bilbao Grasswag Arisman and Bard Rogich and Aayuso are the main favorites to win this year’s Jirro followed by Adam Yates. And then here’s the riders from the preliminary start list to watch in my book. Teams that are confirmed at the time of recording will receive a check mark. Starting with Sudal Quickstep Lambda, seventh in Tereno Adriatico and fourth in Catalunia, fourth in the 2019 Jirro and third behind Hinley and Karapas in the 2022 edition is certainly a rider to consider here. Ethan Hader is another resounding name yet we haven’t seen too much yet from him this season while Manet is definitely a rider to watch for the fast stages. Inos is lining up with a strong team here with the Bernal Arsman duo contending for GC. Bernal won the race in 21 while Arsman came sixth here in the final two additions. In terms of current form, Bernnal is a bit of a question mark only having raced Catalunia where he came seventh and Arsman came third in Parinis behind Jorgensson Lipovitz and just came second to Stoer in the tour of the Alps. Then obviously look out for Wonder Tarling on the ITTS. UAE is the strongest team by far here, lining up with Ausso as one of the main contenders for this race with also Adam Yates to be considered the serious contender. Given their current form, I do expect Aayuso to be their number one rider though. He won the Adriatico earlier this season and came second to Rogich in Catalunia. Adam Yates started the season with a win in the tour of Oman while he’s been fairly invisible since at FASA bike. Simon Yates should be the rider to watch for GC 14 in Teno and 19 Cataloonia. Or are we looking at something different here? Is this a Visma Lisa bike stage hunter theme? Coy in the sprints while FAR in the punchy stuff, Simon Yates for the climbing stages. In a way, I would love to see this scenario unfold. It would be a great way to turn around their season. at Bahan. I made a mistake last year to underestimate Terry who rode into fifth and took home the youth classification. Besides him, also watch Bill Bao who’s been fifth year before on two occasions. Then I’m not sure what to expect from EF. I no longer see Karapas doing it while he remains brilliant in the hunt for stages and also Steinhauser could shoot at some stage wins. Rogich is the man to watch at Red Bull Bora, winner of the 23 edition with two strong Lieutenants here, Hinley and my man Daniel Felipe Martinez. Rogich started this season ending the Algarve in eight and winning Catalunia ahead of Aayuso Mas and Landa at Moistar. Watch allar and Baronetsa in the fast and the punchy stages respectively. Groupama will be riding for God yet. I’m not expecting much from him. Their best shot in my opinion is to aim for a stage victory with either Pasher or Roas. Fortunat for GC and Scaroni for breakaway wins at Astana. Harper and Zana are the riders to watch at Jaiko. Yet based on what we’ve seen so far this season, there is no indication they’ll do really well. Chicone at Tre has a chance to ride top 10 here in my opinion and riders like Conrad, Pedis and Vachk can certainly win some stages here. Frankly, I expect Ped to ride with a vengeance, making the team regret they’re not planning to take him to the tour to France. Barde was seventh here in 21 and ninth on GC in last year’s edition. It’s his final season and I really wonder whether he’s going to fight for a top 10 position. Personally, I would prefer to see him go for stage wins. And we’ve seen in last year’s wela that Max Pool also likes the stage hunt. Par and P were 10th and seventh in the recently finished tour of the Alps. And finally in the fast stages, Fenuda will be looking to mix it up. Then I’m not expecting too much from this Ara lineup yet. I’ll be watching Stoer at Tudtor whom I expect to shoot for a top 10 in this cheer. His recent form is amazing. 15 Parinis and freshly over the Alps win. Plumbers is a good rider for the more punchy and hilly breakaway stages. While in the fast stages, I’ll be watching Zard who wrote some decent results earlier this season, notably in Tereno Adriatico. At Coffidis, look for Fine Sprints and Alagard Monik duo in the punchy classic style breakaways hunting for stages. At Israel Premier Tech, we have G for GC, winner of the Grand Camino, fourth in Tereno, and third in the tour of the Alps this season. And then we have Frigo for the climbing breakaway stages and strong for the punchy ones. Also look out for Yan Hert in week three. He’s a rider who tends to improve compared to his competitors as we advance into a grand tour. And as such, this type of backloaded Grand Tour could well set him up for a stage win. At Alpacas in the Kerning, look out for Gross in the sprints and Quinton Hermans for wins from the break. At Mare, mainly look for Tessa in the fast stages. There is no indication so far this season that Manchester would be able to make a dent in this jurro. Decatlon looks to be lining up here to hunt for stages. Bennett in the sprints, the bond fend for the more hilly and climby stages. Then I like Piganzoli at Baltic Komea for a stage win even though he’ll most likely try to ride for GC. Also look out for Lonardi in the sprints. I’m also expecting Pitcock to ride for GC after some solid stage race results winning the Alula Tour third in the Rut del Sol and six in Toreno Adriatico. I expect him to be testing his ground tour legs here and I would frankly not be surprised if he manages to bag a top 10 position. Also look for Mosqueti and Lipins in the sprints. And finally at Bardani, expect Fiorelli in the punchy stage hunt. Looking at the fast man, the sprinters field doesn’t run very deep here with Philips Merlier and Milan all absent. And based on the preliminary start list, here are the 10 riders to watch in my book. picking Koi over W Fard at Fishma Lisa bike which obviously doesn’t mean you should rule out Fannard Man at Sudal Quickstep Mosceti at Q36 and a half Bennett at Decat AG2R Fid at Enter Mar at Little Gross at Alpacing Salard at Tudor and Lonardi at Py. Finally also look for Allar at Movie Star and Vanuda at picnic postel. We don’t have tons of comparative material between these sprinters yet. Here’s an overview of how they’ve been doing recently with Bennett, Koi, Groves, Feta, and Lonardia, and Moscetti the main ones to watch in my book. And I expect the fight for the purple jersey to be between Pedoy and Groves. And if I’d had to pick one of them, I’d probably go for Ped. In terms of stars, Rogichus are my four-star favorites to take the pink jersey home. Land Terry and Adam Yates get three stars. Bernal and Denny Martinez get two stars and store Chicone and G each get one star. And in terms of podium prediction for the 2025 Jirro dital italia, I’m going with a Rogich win ahead of Auso and Tiberry. Thanks for watching and look out for my stage predictions with stage one dropping on Wednesday evening.