(0:00) Ray Dalio joins Friedberg!
(0:50) The current US fiscal situation
(6:23) Breaking down “The Big Debt Cycle,” a potential US debt spiral, and the impact on real wealth
(24:54) USD vs other currencies and assets, best hedges against the dollar
(33:20) Portfolio construction, how China increases risk for US AI companies, why this market reminds Ray of 1998-1999
(41:45) How the US can avoid a debt crisis
(53:29) DOGE, Trump, and AI’s greatest risk
(1:05:31) Chances of conflict between the US and China
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Referenced in the show:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp
https://www.crfb.org/press-releases/treasury-confirms-calendar-year-2024-deficit-tops-20-trillion
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61172
https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/2bstne1l09npgdk1s5yww/corner-office/ray-dalio-makes-his-exit-from-bridgewater
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/fed-meeting-september-2024
https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertfarrington/2024/11/08/fed-cut-interest-rates-so-why-do-mortgage-rates-keep-climbing
https://www.chathamfinancial.com/insights/fomc-recap-december-2024
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/14/a-global-bond-sell-off-is-deepening-as-hopes-for-multiple-fed-rate-cuts-fizzle.html
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21 Comments
I'm a simple man. I see All In, I click.
Thank goodness for Bitcoin. 🧡
Good point at the end there, but politicians tend to be so old they’re not gonna be alive in 20 years so why bother making unpopular choices that are guaranteed to cost you your profitable mandate?
Great stuff! Unfortunately the american people don't understand basic economics and can't fathem that we all need to give up a little now or face being a second-rate country very soon…….we have been dumbed down and are way to entitled
The fundamental problem of the US is not debt nor spending. It’s the wealth is concentrated in a small percentage of people who pay little taxes and they are also in power to maintain the privilege of not paying much taxes. That is the fundamental problem that brought down most Chinese dynasties in history. When the rich do not pay, the government would have to squeeze the poor even harder and at the end, it is revolution.
Great interview. The importance of cutting rates significantly and quickly to avoid large/non linear cuts down the line, was a significant piece of knowledge
" Do you think we can stop the rise of socialism?"
😂
It's inevitable Coward
BUY BITCOIN!!!!
Amazing interview !!!!
I wish Friedberg had a high position in the US government !!!
Watch the expose on Dalio
really good "bad" company as Ray says —–> $FUBO after Disney bought 70% of it! Don't sleep on it! I was early investor in $PLRT and $SOFI before they got profitable, now my play is $FUBO
Tldr; us gonna default or not?
Ray Dalio, Andy Schectman, Luke Gromen, Alasdair Macleod, Adam Taggart, Bill Holter, Michael Bordenaro and Stephanie Pomboy need to be advising Trump on economic policy. These people need to have Trump's ear. So much wisdom in Ray Dalio. I can't believe that he hasn't been tapped as an economic advisor to Trump. Super smart dude. Wish Trump would stop talking so much and start listening to smart people.
Typical narcissist, he surrounds himself with people who are favorable to him and his agenda rather than a community of financial and economic experts who can share ideas, advice and expertise about what he should do and not do.
A wise man surrounds himself with even wiser people than himself. I don't see Trump doing that, which seems very foolish and short sighted. Sad. Wish Dalio would reach out to Trump and build a team of economists who can give him good economic advice. Because what Trump is doing and saying is foolish. He's acting like a bully out of desperation. And the MAGA folks are excited about it but they're behaving very, very foolishly and their incompetance, arrogance and bullying other countries thru tariff extortions is simply going to isolate the USA from the rest of the world.
Trump is behaving very foolishly. Stubborn, selfish old man who has always been able to bully others intp getting what he wants. That actually doesn't work very well as a long term strategy. It may work in the short term but it doesn't work in the long term. And its very sad that nobody in his administration is willing to tell him he is behaving foolishly. If he could just shut his mouth and ignore reporters, he would get alot more done without ruining his plans and ambitions. To tell your opponents what you are going to do before you do it is a very foolish strategy. Also, it's unnecessary. There's no reason why Trump needs to tell the whole world what he's going to do. Actually, tactically it just doesn't make sense to tell people what you plan on doing. Its better to just do it and avoid broadcasting it.
I swear, macroeconomics / macro hedge funds are the strangest industries- no other arena where you can have "all time greats" who have absolutely no idea what they are talking about… A gov like the US never needs to issue debt; it did so historically to buoy overnight rates because there was no interest paid on reserves / RRP floor… Now the primary reason is to provide collateral to lubricate the pipes of the financial system / provide a savings account for institutional cash pools… "debt monetization" isn't a "thing"; swapping treasuries for reserves is not inflationary (it is arguably deflationary)… there is just so much nonsense in just the first 10 min of this video. Very difficult to progress the field of macro given the inertia / reverence for people like Dalio / Bernanke etc. though.
You have some fantastic content on your channel. At 53 years old, my wife and I achieved a net worth of $1 million back in 2017. Fast forward five years, and it has grown to $2.4 million. Despite our combined annual salary of just over $100,000, we have adopted a frugal lifestyle. We continue to drive older cars, prepare meals at home, and make use of leftovers. Additionally, we have two children currently in college. Fortunately, we had saved for their college expenses, and they are contributing by working part-time. As a result, they will graduate without any student debt.
That’s the only way we should really be valuing stocks… 40:30 … purchasing power – A decline in 60-70% is abysmal. Much respect for Ray Dalio… even if he is a knowledgeable Dinosaur ☺️
I wish Chamath was on this conversation to try and preach that the debt doesn't matter.
Anyone see it online free as mentioned?
언젠가 크게 맞추실분 😅
I love Ray Dalio. I remember him during my college days when he had put out a video on how the economic cycle / machine works. His explanation was the best I have ever grasped such a complex topic. He is a great mind and clearly a cut above the typical hedge fund czars.