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For years, the auto industry has been hyping the transition to electric vehicles with optimistic sales forecasts for electric models and huge growth projections. Investors pumped up valuations for automakers, based on their visions for an electric future.
Now the hype is dwindling, and companies are again cheering consumer choice. Automakers from Ford Motor and General Motors to Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen and Jaguar are scaling back or delaying their electric vehicle plans.
Tesla’s annual vehicle deliveries declined for the first time in more than a decade during a period when overall car sales are up. Have automakers overinvested in EVs and are EVs killing the car industry?
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Further Reading:
How Trump policies could reshape the EV industry: https://observer.com/2024/12/trump-ev-policy-tesla/
Norway EV subsidies: https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/renewable/the-hypocrisy-of-the-electric-vehicle-movement/
Tesla Deliveries drop: https://www.ft.com/content/f13d799c-a4dc-4619-b876-6ec68b502fec
Automakers struggling: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/15/business/automakers-trouble.html
Northvolt Bankruptcy: https://www.ft.com/content/09938004-21b9-4750-8fa2-9ed15c566d4e
The Winners & Losers in Auto Sales: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g63335108/auto-sales-q4-2024-winners-losers/
Why Norway is Having Second Thoughts about EVs: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23939076/norway-electric-vehicle-cars-evs-tesla-oslo
24 Comments
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Last new car I bought was in 1999. Go used, pay cash, avoid interest. Even now you can get a real nice truck for 20k
People who care about the environment, simply don't buy a car if they can avoid it. If they have to buy a car, they'll look for a lightweight one, not the SUV monsters the car industry has been pushing for tax reasons, rather than actual demand, even people who need an utility vehicle, shouldn't want these SUVs, as they actually have less capacity than older, smaller cars.
You can blame market distortion, sure, there is some of that, but the industry also did it to itself.
If they want profit, they can start building electric bikes, the amount of battery needed on a vehicle for the same effectiveness (in particular for people living in a city, an electric bike is actually a far superior mode of transportation than a car, electric or not), and would you believe it, a lot of people live in cities!
"Is Electrification Killing the Auto Industry in the West?" fixed your title for you
Saudi Norge is best ignored. Norway doesn't have a clue what to do with their oil money.
Shareholders capitalism killing the auto industry
Our children, grand-children, and humanity are utterly fucked.
Net zero is not a problem and will obviously happen. The big question is: when. The very engineering skilled green politicians in Germany did (and still do) not really care about the storage capacity for excess renewable energy for which only P2G (with methane due to the existing infrastructure and storage capacity) seems suitable. This summer there will be noticably more solar energy in Germany(!) than we can use. So we throw it away but pay terrible prices for natural gas during winter. Who could have expected that…
The battery cost problem of EVs will obviously decrease a lot over time. In 10-15 years nobody will still talk about that. Another approach which might help the European car industry is to move from "everyone in and around a big city has a regular car" to "everyone has a very small EV and regularly rents a real car for longer distances". A while ago I read an interview with a BMW manager who stated that he loved the idea of more people renting cars (occasionally, not fpr long terms) because that way many more people could affort to drive his luxury cars, increasing his sales.
For small EVs (I have been driving a Renault Twizy for six years in Berlin and am looking forward to getting my City Transformer around the end of this year) the battery costs do not matter much and they have a lot of advantages in bis cities. But the great European car industry has not even announced something like that (at least not anything available in Germany; there is a rent-only model by Renault, the Twizy successor)… The City Transformer will be manufactured in Europe but has been developed in Israel. It is embarrassing.
"10% of the car cost is ICE engine."
Wait, so I have been spending 90% on dead weight when they boast about cool engine technology?
If an ICE motor costs 1/10 of the cost of the car, then why do they want half the cost of the car for a new motor.
I’m not going to be an EV guinea pig.
Yes.
It’s incredibly frustrating that people ignore any personal responsibility to society and demand they be entitled to drive a giant diesel truck. Electrification improves the situation but can’t solve that problem on it’s own
The problem with switching an EV in the UK has been the enormous price premium, a lack of suitable and appealing models, and the depreciation rate. All of these might shift in the right direction over the next 2-3 years or so……but, the prices are going to have to drop quite a bit, which is likely to prove problematic for manufacturers in terms of their P&L….remains to be seen how much market share emerging (comparatively cheaper) Chinese brands can grab.
Govts are told what to legislate by the mfgs.(to save planet) !
ICEs are complex and expensive to make and warranty !
Electric motors are simple, cheap,and don't even need transmissions ! Overpriced, Rechargeable Golf Carts !
The impact of net zero on the auto industry doesn’t mean that net zero goes away. After all, there’s only so much oil on Earth to begin with, so we have to stop using it eventually no matter what. We don’t have an option there in the long run. Where we do have an option is in mode of transportation. Mass transit, bicycles, and walking all exist. So
instead of meaning the end of net zero, the impact of net zero on the auto industry will probably mean the end of the auto industry.
Not having a road near my house, is a problem. Not that I would buy an EV anyway, I buy cheap used cars, never seen the point in playing a lot for something that deprecates fast. As I don't do a lot of miles, EVs make no sense for me at the moment.
Peak neoliberalism is arguing about how to split the dinner bill at the Titanic restaurant while the ship keeps sinking.
The Australian federal government is just as stupid, by following UK type penalties to artificially increase the price of traditional cars. They still believe in Paris, and are sending this place broke with a very foolish plan to install wind turbines on our great dividing range on our eastern seaboard, and solar panels on farm land. We don’t have such a big issue with manufacturing because they killed off our car manufacturing ages ago, and so we import nearly everything. Our dollar has fallen again, and the once predicted status as a supplier of undifferentiated raw materials, is heading to us being labeled a third world country. Our electricity grid will never cope with a high percentage of electric vehicles, and besides that, the distances here are huge.
EVs will catch on when the price of gasoline becomes so expensive that it makes sense to transition. Until then, the limited lifespan of EVs and heavy depreciation makes them unaffordable. I have 20 yr old Toyotas and Fords that are running perfectly. Why would I buy an EV that needs a $10,000 battery in 7 years. It they get in an accident, they get totaled because they are too expensive to repair. Government is run by the kids you remember from high school who couldn't do math.
Just sold our Toyota Alphard for Chinese Zeekr 009, just sold Toyota LC200 and deciding between Tesla Model 3 performance or Hyundai Ioniq 5 N here in Malaysia. Doing work around Singapore aswell and EV makes sense here. I never drive hundreds of miles and prospect of solar panels are interesting.
"I guess both firms are in the electric appliance business now." 😁😄
You can't get to net zero with neo-liberal economics. No matter how much the capitalists want to.
These EV subsidies are ridiculous. Thank you Patrick!