Join the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs in illuminating the upcoming direction in Virginia government. Renowned political scientist Bob Holsworth, Ph.D., analyzes the 2023 Virginia elections and examines implications for the state.
The session was moderated by Robyn Diehl McDougle, Ph.D. (M.S.’00, Ph.D.’03), Wilder School associate dean of research and outreach and associate professor.
Good afternoon everyone and on behalf of the L Douglas Wilder School of government and public affairs at VCU Welcome to our November alumni lunch and learn session uh all eyes on Virginia analyzing elections 2023 with Dr Bob holworth and Dr Robin McDougall today’s session is in collaboration with the VCU
Alumni Poli iCal science caucus for those of you joining us for the first time uh Wilder School hosts uh monthly events like this one um where uh change agents thought leaders and policy makers provide insights and commentary on relevant topics of the Day none more relevant than speaking on uh last week’s
Election my name is Stephen doer and I am the senior director of development and alumni engagement at the Wilder school before we start I’d like to share a few quick announcements the Wilder School remains at the Forefront of our field and continues to rise in the rankings US News and World Report ranks
Our school’s public affairs program at number 39 placing Us in the top 15% of more than 250 schools across the United States and we hold the top 40 rank top 40 rankings in four program specialty areas as you can see here the fall 2023 Wilder school and action magazine is available online so
Use the QR code on your screen to read some f fantastic stories from the school um like the one featured on the cover our spring 2024 application deadline is December 1st for Master’s programs and December 15th for fall 2024 PhD applications please visit or share the link with colleagues or friends or
Family that you know might be interested it’s that time of the year again fall commencement is going to be on December 9th uh Saturday from 1:30 to 3 at the greater wrenchman uh Convention Center if you have questions please email us we’d be happy to accommodate and uh without further Ado I introduce
Dr Susan Glon our esteemed Dean thank you so much Stephen and welcome everyone to our November lunch and learn I know that all of us are very eager to hear from our guest presenter today who is a good friend of the Wilder School Dr Bob holsworth and I know his analysis will
Be on point and uh very indepth um before we get to that I do want to share with you a very important announcement I want to make everyone aware of a special event that we are hosting for in honor of the namesake of our school Governor Wilder this is a national avation to
Governor Wilder honoring his 70 years of leadership and service there are going to be two amazing events on January the 17th which is Governor Wilder’s 93rd birthday we will be holding a documentary Premiere where a film will be shown um on some of the Lesser known aspects of Governor Wilder’s life here
In Richmond at five o’clock um and then on Saturday January the 20th this will be the national Ovation black Thai Gayla that will be held at the Washington Hilton in Washington DC we are delighted to be collaborating with both Virginia Union University and Howard University uh both of which of course are Governor
Wilders aladas on both of these events so please mark your calendars now you’ll be hearing much more about this um in the months to come uh but this does promise to be a Grand Event a grand celebration for the namesake of our school the 66th governor of Virginia and the first elected African-American
Governor in the nation Governor Wilder um but before we get to that I know today we are focused on doing an analysis and hearing more about uh the election last week’s uh elections here in Virginia and our moderator for today’s session is Dr Robin McDougall Dr McDougall I’ve worked with for a number
Of years we actually started at VCU on the exact same day um she is our associate dean of research and Outreach and she is an associate professor of Criminal Justice in the Wilder School um our distinguished speaker Bob holworth has had many roles at VCU uh been a
Previous director of the Wilder school dean of humanities and Sciences and and board of visitors member but the other thing is that he was the first director of our centers and institutes which Dr McDougall directs now and so she directs our centers and Institute she leads our Commonwealth poll and she’s also heavily
Involved in our Capital semester program which begins next month for our students as they work and complete internships in the general assembly so uh Robin does a lot for the school and she also keeps a close eye on Virginia politics so not no one any better to um moderate today’s
Session than Dr McDougall so I’ll turn it over to you Robin thank you so much Dean Gooden and it really is my honor and privilege to introduce today’s speaker uh Dr Bob holsworth is one of the leading political analysts in Virginia he’s a regular political analyst for wtvr CBS 6 here in Richmond
And his comments on Virginia and National politics have been run in newspapers from the Wall Street Journal to the New York Times to the Washington post as well as almost all other newspapers across the country and throughout the Commonwealth he has appeared on almost all major telev television channels speaking about
Politics including the BBC and Fuji television Dr holsworth was named one of the 100 influentials in Virginia politics by campaign and elections magazine and as Dean Gooden mentioned he is the founding director of both the Center for Public Policy and the El Douglas Wilder School of government and
Public affairs Dr holworth received the outstanding faculty member award at VCU excuse me the outstanding teaching award at VCU and the outstanding faculty member award from Chev while he was serving here at the University he is currently the managing principal of decid smart a firm that provides analysis and planning for agencies local
Governments nonprofits and private sector companies with government interest as well Dr holsworth has served on a number of boards and commissions including chairing Governor McDonald’s independent bipartisan redistricting commission serving as the executive director of Governor Warner’s Commission on efficiency and Effectiveness in state government and serving as the co-staff
Director on Governor Wilder’s Commission on the future of Virginia’s urban areas Dr holworth completed two terms on vcu’s board of visitors and served five years as the chair of the great aspirations scholarship program here in Richmond Virginia he currently serves on the board of RVA 757 connects and
Received his PhD from the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill Dr holsworth thank you so much for being with us today and the floor is yours sir great Robin thanks very much thanks to the dean and I just also want to say um how extraordinary it is to watch what Dean
Gooden Professor McDougall and the Really the amazing staff of the Wilder School uh has done over the years it’s just great to work with you and it’s just fabulous uh to be to remain involved so let me just begin uh by trying to talk about what happened in uh
Last week and what it means and I guess the best way I’m going to start is really try to just Begin by outlining what was at stake then I’m going to talk a little bit about how the election was framed by the redistricting talk about the results and then speak about what
That’s going to mean for the upcoming General Assembly session that starts in January and also what it may mean for governor yunan as well and then look forward to taking everybody’s questions there so um let me begin just uh very briefly by outlining four things that
Four key features that were at stake in this election the first was simply whether Virginia was going to continue with divided government or whether or not uh governor yunan was going to be successful in keeping the house and flipping the Senate and having uh what they call their Republican
Trifecta uh that’s very important because for most of the past 20 years in Virginia we’ve had divided government uh with the exception of the last two years of the northern Administration and two years in the McDonald Administration and when government is not divided the um sitting governor and the party that’s in power
Has a lot more opportunity to do what it wants so that was at stake uh secondly there had been a lot of talk about Governor Yan’s National aspirations he had been in many ways what I might call the darling of the donor class there were a lot of people encouraging him uh
To get into the race in fact a few weeks before the election there was a gathering of donors in Williamsburg uh many of whom thought that Governor yunan would make a better presidential candidate so that aspiration was sort of on the table in some way as well
Connected to that was the fact that Governor yunan had put forward what he called a 15we what other people called 15 we ban on abortion but it was an effort to try to find a way out of the Republican dilemma that they’ve had in so many special elections since dos that
Republicans were losing uh election after election after the on the abortion issue and Governor Young thought well he proposed what he called the compromise that he would think was a potential way out for republicans and there were a lot of people looking at this nationally to see whether or not this model would
Actually work on that and then finally I would say there was a what was at stake was uh the political identity of Virginia uh Virginia had been a a purple State trending blue for the last decade and a half until Governor Yan’s election in 2021 and if Governor y succeeded in uh
De in winning this Trifecta with the general assembly what you would say then is that we would then have been a purple State trending red so there was a real question about had Virginia’s political identity changed or was the 2021 election of gut yunan a bit of an
Outlier or a bit of anomaly largely because it occurred at a time when so many parents were frustrated with 18 months remote learning during covid so those were the the stakes at the election and it took place in the framework of this redistricting that had occurred that was um a distinctive and
Unusual uh kind of redistricting in Virginia up to this time redistricting had been controlled by the um majority political party in each chamber and they would propose a redistricting formula um that was politically grounded and politically based and then the governor would approve or tweak this and
At the end of the day it was controlled by the elected officials uh Virginia the previous year had approved Virginia had approved the Constitutional Amendment establishing a bipartisan commission to do this redistricting that would be eight Democrats and eight Republicans and they would get in a room
Over a few months and come up and draw the maps I always knew that had no chance of working because as um Dr McDougall had said I had chaired an advisory commission for Bob McDonald in 2021 that had six Democrats six Republicans I was the independent chair at the end of the day
Uh that group couldn’t agree on a single map they came up with two or three maps that looked a little better than the ones we had previously done but even an Advisory Group couldn’t do this so what happened is that these folks met again they couldn’t reach an agreement agement
And the backup plan in the Constitutional amendment was to take this to the Supreme Court they redrew the lines and um they had two political scientists and they redrew the lines they were technically better lines than we had had ever seen before in Virginia probably but at the same time they made
One very faithful decision and that was not to look at the address of any single incumbent so the result of this redistricting is they put 40 um they basically put 40% of both houses in with one another Democrats with Democrats Republicans with Republicans Democrats with Republicans and all the legislature
Had to all the legislators had to decide what they were going to do are they going to run in a primary were they going to try to move to a more favorable District where they going to retire and at the end of the day what that meant is
That probably we’re going to see we see a large turn over onethird of the Senate is going to be new and uh approximately 30% of the house is going to be new so the redistricting was kind of a term limits for Virginia a backdoor term limits now interestingly enough even
After the redistricting and after all those changes there weren’t that many competitive seats in in in in the election and there were some people who believe that redistricting actually leads to more competition but it doesn’t necessarily do that and the reason is that so many people so many um folks
Have their political views are kind of aligned with where they live so you could redraw the lines in most of Southwest Virginia 20 different ways and most of those lines the vast majority almost all are going to be Republican you go to Inner Northern Virginia they’re going to be
Democratic so there were really uh at maximum six competitive races I think in the um in the Senate there were more in the house maybe eight or 10 on that front so when I looked at this the results of the redistricting before the election in the Senate I said in fact
The Democrats have 18 save seats out of 40 the Republicans have 16 so in order to win the Democrats need three to get to 21 because the Republicans have the tiebreaker with lieutenant governor Sears Republicans would need four of these and it was interesting that Governor yunan put so much emphasis on
Flipping the Senate when the reality was that going to be quite tough because the Democrats a started with an advantage and B that a lot of these competitive seats were in places where Governor yunan did not do extraordinarily well in 2021 so the Democrats had to win a seat
In Western henrio here with Skylar van valkenberg and sioban dunovant they spent over I think about $ n million for a job that pays $1 18,000 and at the end of the day uh Skyler van valkenberg the Democrat coasted to Victory he won by nine points largely because henrio county is
Becoming a democratic County and um the governor yunan did commercials with Siobhan Donovan he was out rallying there he spent an enormous amount of his pack money on that race and at the end of the day it was just going to be very tough to flip and he didn’t succeed uh
And then there were two other races in Northern Virginia where the Democrats were able to get the majority uh d Rome running for Senate who people know as the first transgender uh member of the general assembly uh she ran up in Prince William County there was some sense that
That race could be a little more competitive because the public uh concern about data center locations in Prince William County too close to residential areas um were seen to be controversial and her opponent was running uh very explicitly on a platform of proh prohibiting transgender students from in K12 from participating in
Athletics and there was some concern about whether or not uh anti-trans sentiment would would be evident in that election danam Won Won that election perhaps not by as much as Democrats normally do but still won it by two to three points there and then third thirdly there was an County where
Again the the Democrats thought a very important election for them they nominated russed Perry a um former prosecutor who also worked for the CIA uh had had a background very similar to that of Abigail spanberger Republicans nominated uh Juan Pablo sgura um son of a billionaire fairly charismatic guy who
Um had actually recently moved to ladden it was an extraordinarily expensive race over $1 million was spent but again um in all of these three races that the Democrats won uh Reproductive Rights abortion was just absolutely Central to getting the majority um there Republicans were able to win the seats
In Hampton Road which had been a better place for governor yunan all along but at the end of the day that 15we limit just did not work for governor yunan because by and large I think what happened is that most people saw a ban as a step backward the Republicans had
Thought that this might work because if you just PLL on the 15we ban or 15 week limit however you want to call it in by itself it doesn’t poll terribly some polls have it with a positive sense some folks have it moderately negative but it’s not a terrible poll but however if
You compare that to the alternative which is let’s stay where we are um with with row then that band pulls worse and the and the other problem it has is that it actually counters what you might call the Republican brand if the Republicans are people who believe in individual
Freedom don’t want big government uh when you start talking about abortion bans and you start seeing legislation like you do in Texas where people are even talking about trying to prevent individuals from crossing state lines to get an abortion um this has been bad so the issue that was devastating for
Republicans throughout the summer became devastating for them again here in Virginia um this time and the same actually was true in the house there were a lot of people who thought going into this house race that Democrats will keep the Senate but the Republicans will keep the house um I didn’t particularly
See that I always saw the house is going to be extraordinarily competitive because after the redistricting again I thought the Democrats probably had a slight Advantage maybe 48 seats leaning their way 47 seats leaning the Republican way and again with some of these other seats being up in Northern
Virginia I thought the Democrats had a chance that most of these competitive races are what you would call Suburban exurban areas where the abortion issue is going to play as a as a centerpiece because that’s where it’s been doing nationally it did that in Virginia and the Democrats were able to actually rest
A 5149 majority in the house um I just might add one final point Republicans were actually fairly fortunate that the house wasn’t worse that by and large um if you just added two points to the Republican side in every house race they would have got one more seat but if you
Added two points to the house race in the Democratic side they would have got six more seats so the five more seats excuse me so the close Races by and large were tilting toward the Democrats and the Republicans were fortunate enough to to win a lot of those very
Very close races um in the house um so what does this mean going forward now and uh what kind of new general assembly will we have and I think there are three points to make in thinking about the general assembly that’s coming up uh the first is the geographic um changes that’s occurring
In terms of the power structure the power structure right now has been um in the senate in Northern Virginia and the Republican power structure um they’ve had a little bit in Hampton Roads but a lot of rural people in the house that they’ve had this this changing dramatically now uh Northern Virginia is
Being many of their uh stalwarts and longtime folks either retired or were beaten in primaries by more Progressive Democrats there so what you’re seeing in terms of of a lot of the power structure is that you’re seeing more of it in Hampton Roads uh in the in the house Don
Scott the speaker is from Portsmith in the Senate Louise Lucas the Senate uh president and now chairman of Senate finances also from portsman so it’s not just Hampton Roads but these people are coming from uh one of the most economically disadvantaged uh cities in the state so
That that’s that’s quite a change in terms of the power structure the other point I would make for the people who live in this area is RVA has almost no one um who is in the power structure on the Democratic side right now they have they’ve elected a lot of new delegates a
Lot of new C folks uh maybe there’ll be one person who chairs a um a committee or two but by and large in terms of the the power in Virginia uh Central Virginia and the Richmond area uh is not going to to have a lot of a lot of power
At the moment right now yeah secondly uh beyond that demographically there’s a dramatic change and and that change is right now when you think about the power structure and you think about the Democrats there are more African-Americans in the um General Assembly than we’ve ever seen before
Almost 20% of the house and the Democrat African-Americans make up probably a little more than 40 % of the Democratic or 20% in the Senate excuse me and almost 40% of the democratic caucus in the house so if the legislative Black Caucus um sees this opportunity and
Grasp it um and we’ll have to see what happens there um they really have that opportunity they hold the as I said the chair of Senate Finance the chair of house appropriation they have the president proem and they have the speaker of the house so the question is do they move that agenda
There and then thirdly ideologically the Democrats have certainly I think overall moved um somewhat in a more Progressive Direction as a result of the election what we saw is that in the Democratic primaries that occurred especially in Northern Virginia what occurred where that Progressive Democrats beat what I would call kind of
Center left Democrats ideologically uh younger folks um beat older folks there and um some of what we’d call the pro bus Democrats in Northern Virginia were defeated um by more Progressive candidates where the Democrats needed to win in competitive Races they tended to nominate individuals uh that had um probably less
Of an ideological bent than you might see in some some of the the primary elections that occurred but overall I think what you’re going to see out of the democratic party here is um in in effort to sort of uh counter what they consider to be some of Governor Yan’s
Directions so that gets me to the final comments I want to make um about this about what’s happening now is that Governor yonan now faces for sure he’s been in divided government for the first two years has saw that his agenda was in many ways uh
Styed uh in some ways by the Democrats in in in the Senate and now faces the Democratic party that controls both Chambers so by and large here’s what I would I would say that um for governor yunan I think a lot of the culture War issues are going to go
Nowhere uh there and in fact uh I think you’re going to have to make some far more accommodation than he has that that by and large I would also note that there was some frustration with the governor by Republicans during this campaign cycle and going forward and it
Was all uh related to the um purported National that the governor had the governor always said that he wasn’t running for office now I’m not in Iowa I’m not in South Carolina I’m not in New Hampshire but had never made a declarative statement that said I will not run for president and interestingly
Enough he still didn’t uh the day after the election and there were a number of Republicans frustrated with that because they didn’t think running these ads about the 15we abortion ban was good they thought they were he was running the election on Democratic Turf and that
They were going to lose wasn’t a good thing and so they remained frustrated a little bit with the national aspirations so um my sense is that for the governor he’s going to have to focus on the kind of things that uh where there’s agreement with the Democrats and by and
Large that’s going to be certain Economic Development issues so I think those policies are going to have to be tilted a little more to those at the bottom of the income scale he’s going to be talking about Workforce issues I think mental health reform that we’ve
Had can still go forward I think there’s some opportunities for aom ation on working on the opioid and the uh the C the the drug uh addiction crisis that we have that you see both in rural and urban areas so there’s some places they can work together I think um spending to
Try to ensure that schools deal with learning loss that schools have um uh do better job recruiting teachers they can make teachers better uh find a way to recruit more more to the profession so that’s going to require I think uh deemphasizing some of the culture War
Issues um and trying to get more special ed teachers which we’re really struggling with right now so there’s some of those opportunities at the same time I don’t want to minimize uh the distrust that exists between the Democrats and the governor uh over the last few years and some of that distrust
Is going to be uh connected to the leadership issues uh the Democrat chair of Senate Finance Louise Lucas has been the governor’s principal Nemesis for the past few years in in in many ways um she’s an interesting figure she’s 79 years old one of the most distinctive Personalities in Virginia General
Assembly she as a background was the first sh woman ship fitter at Newport News um shipyards and after the election she um has a a Twitter account that had um a number of salty uh what I would call she uh tweets that she uh is comfortable
Using salty language uh in fact she said in one of these tweets that she speaks two languages she said um English and shipyard um so the governor likes to put on his Twitter account that he’s a former dishwasher he’s going to be up against the ship fitter here um and it’s
Going to be interesting to see where that relationship goes uh speaker Scott has already said that um he is Thoroughly uninterested in some of the governor’s educational policies that would promote lab schools or dollars going to private entities to put schools in that what he wants to do is to focus
On using public dollars for public schools so we’re going to see see that as well so it will be interesting to see whether or not uh Governor yunan can recover there are a lot of people who believe that this election was devastating to his political aspirations
Not only in 24 but 28 um you know there’s a lot of time to go before that um but at the same time it just appears to me that what he won’t be able to do is to have sort of be a Virginia governor and a national aspirant at the
Same time uh or else this thing is going to uh get worse before it gets better finally I would just say that as soon as the election was over people started uh announcing for the political offices that will occur in 2024 in Virginia there’s going to be three important Congressional races the
Democrats would like to flip the seat that Jen kiggins has down in the Virginia Beach area and they already have a candidate Missy small about that and then because of the fact that Jennifer wexton is leaving for health reasons and congressional district 10 that’s going to be highly competitive
And then again on congressional district 7 because Abigail spanberger announced a day after the election or couple days after the election that she’s running for governor we have those three seats Tim kan’s senate seat and a presidential race I did not mention but I should mention that Joe Biden has horrible
Numbers in Virginia I think he probably would beat Donald Trump but uh the Democrats have ignored that they try to pretend that it doesn’t they don’t exist but his numbers have been uh in the high 30s low 40s since the um Afghanistan withdrawal debacle that occurred uh at
Early in his presidency having recovered um there in the same time the Democrats already have two people who announce for uh Governor or will announce for probably Abigail spanberger for sure Lavar Stony the Mayor of Richmond say he’s getting ready to announce and one can presume that at least two
Republicans the Attorney General lieutenant governor will run so um there a lot of people dislike the fact that Virginia has these elections every year um I often say I love it uh largely because it’s uh the Full Employment policy for political pundit so uh Robin if you have any questions I’d love to
Take them well Dr holsworth I have plenty of questions as you can imagine but so to our um to our guest but thank you so much just what an outstanding uh overview coverage of really what people call the off off offe election um that occurred last Tuesday but really in all
Honesty has huge impacts as you’ve mentioned in a variety of ways for Virginia uh and for the United States when we look at Congressional races so I want to start with you said that clearly Virginia was a purple State leaning blue prior to Governor Yan’s election for
Governor what was this going to be with a standing would be be purple leaning red clearly last tues days showed that the Dem Democrats prevailed in both the House and Senate are we still pretty much a purple leaning Blue State and do we look at Governor Yan’s election for
Governor two years ago as being that outlier or was it um perhaps messaging in that space as you mentioned around his presidential interest that maybe had an impact here to I think it’s um I think that’s probably true that we’re probably still purple leaning a little
Bit of blue but here here’s the point I think the Democrats between 2017 and 20121 got very complacent and misread in part what H what was happening in Virginia that Virginia had always been a very close State when it became when the Democrats started winning these
Elections by eight or 10 points that was because of Donald Trump right who’s extraordinarily unpopular in Virginia you know he says he wants to drain the swamp in north in in Washington which is an assault on Northern Virginia and so while Trump is very popular in the rural
Areas in Virginia not so popular either in um northern Virginia or increasingly in rbaa henrio and Chesterfield uh henrio is a democratic place now it’s a 20 or 30 points in in an election even in the Board of Supervisors the Democrats elected four out of the five Board of Supervisors
Members in hrio County um including a woman uh in Western hrio who spent $10,000 her opponent spent 20 times more um she won she’s actually a VCU grad uh an extraordinary story had a child at 15 went into the military came back with a sumacum loudy graduate of VCU graduate
Of William Mary Law School and wins this election uh 20 points down uh with you know 20 to1 Financial disadvantage Misty Whitehead so anyway um my sense is that uh Virginia’s still that but here’s what I would say there was one thing that happened in 2021 that I’m not sure the Democrats are
Going to remedy overnight and that is the bottom completely dropped out in rural Virginia for the Democrats or any place outside the way you might say it the three major metropolitan areas um so if you look at Southwest Virginia what happened there were places where the Democrats went from 30% of the vote
To 15% what I call the the Liberty University suburbs uh Bedford campal County they get 2021 per of the vote so in some sense yunan did better in the rural areas than Trump did um and if that stays the case for the Democrats that poses the problem so two two issues
I still think we’re by and large um you know purple trending blue especially in Northern Virginia and more so now in henrio county and a little bit in Chesterfield um but certainly uh the challenge for the Democrats is the um is Hampton Roads is an area where the
Republicans are running well and then the the bottom dropping out in rural Virginia um largely I think because of these cultural SL political issues remains A continuing challenge the the places in rural Virginia where the Democrats do well is where there’s a college town you know blackburg JMU they they do
They do well in Harrisonburg um but outside of that they don’t do so well well that is that’s a great point and and I think you know there was an article this morning um that talked about the fact that now delegate rul is literally the only Democrat representing you know uh west
Of Rano right you know because they lost um you know with redistricting that so that really does point out a really important aspect of the differentiation I will say because I always want to make a point to to highlight our Commonwealth poll what you talk about though in this
Interesting situation is Biden on our poll as well show performed very poorly um in Virginia and his satisfaction and interestingly enough you know our poll had Governor yunan beating Biden if they were head-to-head um and so I do think you show this kind of there’s going to be some interest in Virginia moving
Forward in this kind of purple leaning blue but not guaranteed blue um which will continue to I think make competitive races we do have a couple questions you mentioned redistricting both the commission you chaired for um Governor McDonald and the the challenges and failure of the redistricting
Commission so um we’re seeing that there uh in the news there are two seats that have some residency issues um of candidates that won uh do you see see anything actually transpiring in these two situations Around The Residency challenges of our two candidates that won their seats lastday yeah I think
They’re really tough to to say that these are going to be legally problematic uh and I’m not an attorney so I I I’ll say that with which to begin but so take a look at the one here they’re complaining about um gazala hashme that she has a um a home that’s
In Glenn sturen District she got into the par dep in the new District that she moved into won that race pretty easily and former Senator Chase is now saying that you know and has a bunch of residents saying well she really lived in the um you know in her home in
Midlothian in the ceran district doesn’t live there but she did rent an apartment in the new district and it just seems to me that how do you prove that you know she’s not going to live there or something like that it’s very tough like uh Senator Chase said well she hadn’t
Put her house up for sale well she didn’t have to put her house up for sale you know there are a lot of people who have multiple residences um and so the qu she’s gonna have to move into that district for sure but what happened is that because of
This redistricting and all the changes that occurred um Senator hash is not the only person who rented an apartment in the in in the new district and I’ll give just an example from two years ago there’s now delegate elect Mark early uh he ran two years ago in a house Republican primary
And his um his opponent raised the issue that he didn’t live in the district and so what delegate early did at that time was that he moved into his father’s basement and I happen to know about that because his father lives in my neighborhood um now how much time he
Actually spent in the basement or his family spent in that basement I don’t know um if he won he was certainly going to have to have a full-time residence in the district but I’m not sure that you can say that the person who got an apartment in the district um and is
Paying rent on that apartment uh doesn’t necessarily live there on the basis of you know some uh you know um testimony from The Neighbors at right now and I doubt that the courts are going to want to get into that at that level um right now I think that if she
Was thinking that she was going to still live in Midlothian most of the time that’s not going to happen any longer right as a result of this but I I just can’t imagine this you know and finally her opponent said that you know he should just be declared the winner right
Yes which is just even though he lost by 27 points it’s not going to happen so uh I I don’t see that having a having a big issue yeah I do I do think you’re right one of the things that we hear a lot about Virginia is our residency requirements
For running all are very uh loose shall we say or lack and so you know that’s that’s just kind of one of the challenges that that is there but but your point is well taken even if for some reason that were to change with uh Senator hashme it is still a very clear
Democrat seat District that you know that that would have to have an election um and I don’t see how you get around not having an election what are you gonna do yeah exactly exactly right um so well I do want to ask a question here you know one of the things you mentioned
And and clearly we saw both in the spending and in the conversations is uh Reproductive Rights women’s reproductive rights were the top issue that we saw especially in those four districts that you spoke about very clearly do you think that we will see potentially now with a Democrat controlled House and
Senate an idea of a constitutional amendment now we understand that there’s a process that needs to happen right you know with the intervening election and thing like that but do we think that we could see an idea about that when we saw the success that Ohio had in putting
Forth a constitutional amendment around uh supporting Reproductive Rights in the commonweal oh absolutely you’re going to see three constit tion amendments that Democrats are going to put forward I would believe uh the first certainly on uh Reproductive Rights trying to enshrine the principles of row like they
Did in Ohio and some other places um and that’s going to be on uh the general assembly has to vote for that this year and next year so what that becomes a an election issue for the Governor’s campaign it won’t be on the ballot in Virginia given the way our system works
We have to have an intervening General Assembly Election before you put it on the public ballot so that won’t be on the ballot until 2026 but it’s going to be on the every assembly member is going to have to vote for that and the governor doesn’t get a chance to veto
That so you’re going to see that one you’re also going to see one on a same-sex marriage uh another uh area where the the Democrats believe they can um divide the Republicans there and then finally you’re going to see a constitutional amendment on the vote rights changes that the Democrats have
Made uh that in particular I want to emphasize how important some of these same day registration is uh and and how the Democrats use that especially in the college towns they could if they used it even a little better um at places like Tech and William and Mary and Virginia
State they might have won even more elections there so the Democrats are going to look at that that same day registration and the lines that occurred at colleges and universities across the state they’re going to say this is a tremendous benefit for us particularly if we can have the registration location
At the University if we’re not busing people uh like they had to do at CNU um down in Hampton Roads but that so those three we’re going to see because the Democrats just think there’s nothing to lose there and on the Reproductive Rights issue they’re going to continue
To use it so long as they’re winning on it why why would they change absolutely wonderful and the the same day voting was really you’re exactly right Dr holth just amazing when you think about um specifically those races as you mentioned in that Williamsburg James City County area I
Mean you’re talking about very small numbers um of wins on both sides similarly in Petersburg so that that was really that that idea that concept around college campuses is is very much a a winning idea that can be expanded upon for Dem Democrats um okay yeah the
One place I would just say Robin the one place that it didn’t occur I I read something which I I can absolutely confirm that the Democrats were getting 90% above plus uh and above on all these college campuses with one exception and that was Liberty University exact I was
GNA say Liberty Liberty University yes exactly right um and then some folks were looking at vcu’s turnout but forgetting that uh we did not have a strong you know we had uh senator uh Bagby wi running unopposed uh delegate Jones running really winning one unopposed but what we did have in in
Richmond and we have several questions about which um gets us to a little bit of local Politics as we move into the last 15 minutes of our time together is the casino vote referendum in Richmond um clearly it was voted in barely um lost uh the year you know previously um
It was put back on the ballot this year um they lost at a higher percentage uh so to vote no for a casino in Richmond um my first question from the audience is what are your thoughts about that and then of course I want to ask you how
That might also impact mayor stony’s gubernatorial uh aspirations as well yeah well you know they um the pro Casino people spent um three times as much as they did last time yes $400 per person in the city of Richmond think was a an analysis from The Wall Street
Journal they did um they did an enormous amount of polling beforehand on how to name the casino I got a lot of these polls on my my phone um you know they they talked about you know being a jobs develop you know jobs machine that are going to be
Entertainment um going to have pickle ball courts going to be something quite different um and at the same same time the opponents you know didn’t spend very much at all uh on this but what what happened I think were were two or three things occurred first among the people who voted no they
Were somewhat insulted that they had to vote again in two years so that there there was a sort of an antagonism that was generated by the very fact that I thought we said no and now we have to say it again so you had that and then
Secondly you had the campaign that was run uh by the pro people that these are some of the worst campaigned ones ever seen and the last week to hold to have that Radio Show in which they used uh racial slurs to describe U you know other members of the
African-American community in which they used anti-semitic tropes to talk about Paul Goldman as the uh uh who was one of the opponents they called one of the business persons Jim UK’s demented um and that and after that they then went on my f you know the most
Remarkable part to me after all of that was Kathy uz who was putting $10 million into it saying you know I’ve just paid off everybody essentially here you know I’ve given money uh to lawyers accountants lobbyists I’ve given donations to a million or you know you know hundred you know tens of
Organizations and nobody and no one seems to still like this um it was just bizarre and that even Juiced I think the opposition to come out so at the end of the day uh the people in the areas that they thought were going to come out did
Not come out very long there was not a big turnout in the eth OR nth District while at the same time it Juiced a turnout among the opponents so it was it was a devastating defeat um you know it’s hard to imagine how it’s anything but problematic um for the mayor I’ve
Heard some people say well he’s going to talk about how he cared about jobs how he was trying to do something um for uh the economically disadvantaged parts of Richmond but I don’t think that is necessarily something that’s going to sell in a Statewide campaign
So um he says he’s going to run for pres run for governor um I just think it’s an uphill climb against Abigail spanberger that she’s been elected in two almost entirely separate congressional districts one that spans enrio Chesterfield another that goes Prince William Stafford uh her name recognition
Is off the charts on that for that reason gonna be higher and then secondly uh we’ll have to see who the mayor is able to get to come behind him when if he does announced for governor because spanberger already has one former Governor two Congressional people people including Jennifer wexton who’s leaving
Congressional 10 um and so long as nobody gets in the race in Northern Virginia who is what I would call a progressive who’s left of spanberger it just appears to me that she’s going to be tough to beat in a one-on-one situation very very insightful as as
Always in that space well you did mention uh the governor’s race and I think your you know your your comments and thoughts about uh both mayor Sony and congresswoman spanberger make a great statement and a great point so what are your thoughts on who um will be we you you mentioned the
Gubernatorial candidates on the Republican side with the lieutenant governor and the Attorney General um do you see do you have any thoughts on who might be in the field for lieutenant governor and Attorney General on either side of the aisle um following with uh
You know spam that’s a lot of a lot of pred but I was gonna say you may know if there’s a McDougall involved or not so not one that I’m aware of Sir there um no I mean on the Democratic side for um attorney general I expect Jay Jones
Obviously who ran last time to be involved I expect Shannon Taylor uh the Commonwealth Attorney from from henrio whether or not you see somebody else come in from Northern Virginia uh I would expect that I don’t know um somebody who might be very attractive but I haven’t heard anything about him
Actually is this Tim hefy who had been um yes you know the the council to the January 6 committee he he would bring if he decided he he speculated that he might get involved in politics some stat stat stature um you know the Republican side
Just going to have to see I think the first question on the Republican side is who runs for um governor and obviously um you know there’s some question about whether or not both the attorney general and the lieutenant governor would run some people think they’ll you know one
Will decide to drop back that’s never good uh I don’t know anybody who’s dropped back in one uh you know the next time around uh that theing so uh that’s an interesting race because I think Myer’s would almost come off as the establishment Republican candidate uh Winston sear sort of a candidate the
Grassroots I think she would actually be the favorite that he you know I’ve talked to a lot of Republicans who think that might be the case I just don’t know um but I think both of them would have an uphill CL if spanberg is a democratic
Nominee um this is not going to be an easy race for either of those two to beat there yes we we might just see our first first female governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia independent of of party if there could be very you could have that choice women possible
Yes yes really great great um well last question um that we have from the group is do you have any thoughts there are some conversations around with um Abigail spanberger running for governor that the Republicans think they could potentially flip that seat in Congress uh what are your thoughts there based on
What we’ve been talking about um through last Tuesday’s elections and that that kind of population that she’s representing now yeah I think they would certainly try to flip that seat I I think a lot of what what’s going to happen in 2024 depends on the Republican nominee so if Donald Trump is the
Republican nominee once again my sense is that it’s going to be very tough for republicans in any Northern Virginia seat now the spanberger seats not just sort of inner Northern Virginia but it has it does have a lot of Eastern Prince William in it which is heavily Democratic then it
Goes down Stafford Spotsylvania and has some more rural areas attached to it um you know she won that seat relatively handily too she won it by four or five points so uh if Donald Trump’s the nominee I see no possible way that the Republicans could make up that make up
That margin and at the moment um he certainly looks like the Republican nominee so if if he’s the Republican nominee I think it’s a a wonderful uh year for the Democrats in Northern Virginia and the only question then becomes whether um Jen kiggins uh could keep could keep the seat so as um
As as poor as Biden’s raitings are I think that’s the case that the the problem that Biden has I’ll just say this before we go Robin is that if you look at this last election the Democrats for the most part were not relying on the voters that are most
Reluctant to vote again for Biden there you got a lot of younger voters who don’t come out very who don’t come out very much other than we saw in the college towns uh where where they did to some degree um and there’s a possible sort of nibbling at the edges with these
Third party candidates Cornell West Jill Stein green party you could see a little bit of that I think RFK actually takes the antivaxers that probably hurts Trump a little bit but I think Biden could be could be harmed there by some of the sort of nibbling at the edges of of of
The folks and and the fact that what we also see is among a number of um more economically disadvantaged communities whether that be Latin am uh Latinos or African-Americans um there has been less support for Biden there as well and a lot of polling that we’re seeing um and
When they you run Statewide or nationally you’re going to need uh that kind of turnout which was not necessarily needed to win in Lowden County for example right now um as we saw last week so I don’t uh you know I think that Trump will not be popular in
Virginia but I don’t want to minimize the challenges Democrats have by sticking with um a person who’s going to be 82 years old so thanks again for letting me do this Robin and Dr holsworth it’s always one of my most most favorite days of the year um
Getting to spend time with you and the great questions that we had from our audience this is absolutely outstanding and just like you I love the fact that Virginia has election every year H because it gives us an opportunity to spend some time um analyzing those with
You so with that I will turn it back over to our Wilder School team uh so thank you thank you both um before I go forward with my announcements danan good did you have anything you wanted to add oh no thank you again Bob we really appreciate your
Tremendous insight and um all of your excellent analysis giving us a lot to thank uh to thank food for thought and uh we we’ll all watch and see what’s ahead uh politically for Virginia and the nation so back to you Stephen no problem and uh yes thank you thank you
Again uh Dean good thank you Robin and thank you Bob for a great talk today um thank you to our collaborators VCU alumni uh political science caucus um before we leave just a few reminders um again we will be celebrating um um and honoring 70 years of leadership and
Service on two dates in the new year January 17th for a documentary premiere for governor Wilder and then the national Ovation Gayla on January 20th the link in the chat will uh give you more details about that next save the date for our February 21st lunch and learn um so again we will
Be um celebrating the governor in January and we hope you can join us there um and then again in February we will return to our alumni lunch and learn series and last but not least happy holidays everyone um since we will not see the folks that uh join us monthly
Um in December and January we just want to say happy holidays from the Wilder School you all have a great rest of your day